Here we go folks, down to one weekend of the regular season, then onto conference tournament week to finalize the 2013 Field of 68! It does not get much more exciting than this time of year for college basketball fans. So without any more conversation let’s break down each conference as we have since the beginning of February – today’s analysis includes all games through Wednesday March 6:
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Ten: St. Louis
Looking good: VCU, Butler
Need wins: Temple [41], LaSalle [38]
Life support: UMass [55]
Summary: the only change this week is the removal of Charlotte from consideration. The top three listed teams will be dancing; Temple & LaSalle are still in a strong position for at-large bids; UMass is barely hanging on but remains in the conversation thanks to wins over Dayton & @ Xavier in their last two outings. Currently Temple is slotted above LaSalle although the teams are very similar –the Owls get the edge based on their head to head win, and a stronger OOC profile. It’s likely both teams earn bids come Selection Sunday. The Minutemen probably need to win out (BUT, @ URI) & advance to at least the A10 SF round to have a strong enough case for inclusion. This conference will have at least four teams, very possibly five & an outside shot at six teams earning bids come next Sunday.
ACC: Duke (replaces last week’s projected conference winner Miami)
Looking good: Miami, North Carolina, NC State
Life support: Virginia [63]
Summary: based on recent results Duke replaces Miami as the projected conference winner. The top four teams listed are all locks to make the tournament, while Virginia remains squarely on the bubble. The Cavaliers early season struggles versus a very poor OOC schedule may come back to bite them in the sense of missing out on a tourney bid despite the fact they are clearly playing at a tournament team level using the eye test recently. They can leverage their 7-2 mark vs. RPI Top 100, their wins over 3 of the 4 ACC teams that will be dancing, and an OOC win over Wisconsin – but still have some work to do. Their remaining slate features games @ FSU and home to MARY – if they were to win both that would put them at 12-6 in ACC play, and well positioned to earn an at-large. Right now it seems the Cavaliers magic # is 2 – pick up another pair of wins and they should earn a bid.
Atlantic Sun: Mercer (replaces last week’s projected conference winner Florida Gulf Coast. The ASUNT will be played on Mercer’s home court, and considering they did not lose one game all year at home they have to be considered the favorite)
Big 12: Kansas
Looking good: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Need wins: Iowa State [51]
Summary: Baylor has been removed from consideration right now as their chances have likely vanished besides grabbing the B12 auto-bid, which seems unlikely. The top 4 teams are locks with the fifth team, Iowa State, still on the bubble but relatively well positioned. They caught a few tough breaks on Big Monday last week, leading to a loss versus Kansas in OT; they followed that up with a loss @ Oklahoma Saturday, doing themselves no favors late in the season. However, they bounced back last night beating Oklahoma State, giving them a trio of wins over the RPI Top 50. If they take care of WVU at home on Saturday that would move them to 21-10/11-7, typically bubble territory for B12 teams. They will almost certainly open the B12T facing Oklahoma in the 4/5 game – that will be a huge game for the Cyclones chances; win that one and they will likely earn a bid, lose it and they will have to depend on others which is never a good position to be in. This conference will have four & possibly five teams dancing.
Big East: Louisville
Looking good: Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova
Need Wins: Cincinnati [45]
Summary: STJ has been removed from consideration this week, while Villanova has jumped to the “Looking Good” category following another top 5 win last night over Georgetown. Right now the BE has 7 teams that are basically locks to earn bids, and Cincinnati that is currently on the right side of the bubble but can ill afford a loss to South Florida at home Saturday because that would leave them with an 8-10 conference record. The Bearcats would lock up their berth with that aforementioned win, which we fully expect to occur. Once again the BE will be well represented in the tournament with 8 teams taking part.
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Charleston Southern
Big Ten: Indiana
Looking good: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Need wins: Minnesota [20], Illinois [34]
Summary: this conference has not looked as good recently as it did say in mid-January as Minnesota, Wisconsin & Illinois have all showed signs of significant struggles at one point or another during conference play. Even OSU had not picked up a big road win before taking down the Hoosiers in Bloomington Tuesday evening. Despite that observation we have five teams that are locks to be dancing, with two others currently listed on the “Need Wins” line considering they are just 8-9 in conference play with one game remaining. First up is Minnesota, sitting nicely with a #20 RPI, but coming off a terrible road loss @ Nebraska last night. It’s a good thing for the Gophers that they beat Indiana last week or they could be in a lot of trouble at this point – but as things currently stand a win @ Purdue on Saturday would likely seal up their bid. Considering MIN is 1-7 on the road in conference play (their lone road win was their first conference road game @ ILL on 1/9, and is facing a Purdue team that took Michigan to the wire last night, picking up that win is not a certainty; if they did finish 8-10 in conference play it would seem, despite their high RPI, they would need to reach the B10T SF round. Next up is Illinois, who is also just 8-9 in conference play, seemingly needing to close their regular season with a win to reach the magical .500 mark in B10 play. Unfortunately for them they will be travelling to Ohio State, a very big & tough task. It seems to us both these teams will lose on Saturday leaving them at 8-10, and needing a pair of wins in the B10T to earn their at-large bid. Projecting ahead at the brackets in that tourney, it looks like both teams would be playing on the opening night vs. either Purdue or Nebraska; those games would be absolute MUST WINS because a bad loss there on top of a sub .500 conference mark would almost certainly spell doom. If both advanced they would then face the #1/#2 seeds, likely Indiana & Michigan – and both of those contests could potentially be must wins for the two. Quite frankly these teams have just lost too many poor games during conference play, and have struggled so much on the road they are not a lock to be dancing right now – keep an eye on both on Saturday & next week in Indianapolis.
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Memphis
Need Wins: Southern Mississippi [42]
Summary: although SMISS sports a strong record and decent RPI they seriously lack big wins – they are 0-5 vs. the RPI Top 50. For us, using that metric & the good old fashioned eye test, they have to be rated below the likes of Illinois, Minnesota & Virginia on my s-curve – and truthfully there is not much the Eagles can do from here on out playing in a weak CUSA. At the very least a Title Game appearance & good showing vs. hopefully Memphis (for their case) is needed to garner serious attention come Selection Sunday.
Horizon: Valparaiso (this conference tournament should be very exciting & is likely to come down to a very solid championship game between Detroit and Valparaiso)
Ivy: Harvard (this conference will likely be decided in a playoff between Harvard & Princeton [who currently has a ½ game lead on Harvard])
MAAC: Loyola Maryland (sticking with LOYMD for now although this CT will be extremely competitive, with four teams legitimately having a chance at earning the conference’s automatic bid)
MAC: Akron (the Zips will really present the committee with a tough decision should they not earn their conference’s automatic bid. They are currently 23-5, RPI #48, but are just 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50 with their best win on the season vs. Middle Tennessee State. Our hunch is as long as they reach the CT Final they will earn a bid win or lose)
MEAC: Norfolk State (the Spartans are currently 15-0 in MEAC play, which may actually work against them come their CT. Although they will enjoy home court it’s extremely tough beating teams twice, let alone three times in the same season – a task Norfolk State would have to accomplish multiple times to earn their conference’s automatic bid – keep an eye on that)
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Looking good: Wichita State
Summary: these two teams can lock themselves into bids by winning out, and meeting in the MVC Championship Game. If either team loses a regular season game, or early in the tourney, their bids could be in serious trouble – but our hunch is they will both be dancing come Selection Sunday.
Mountain West: New Mexico
Looking good: UNLV, Colorado State
Need wins: San Diego State [31]
Life Support: Boise State [44]
Summary: huge win for Boise State over Colorado State last weekend. SDST is right on the fringe of locking up their own berth, but this weekend’s clash with Boise State in Boise could put that lock on hold for a few days. The Broncos must win that game at home, and do some damage in the MWT to increase their profile. It seems the Aztecs & Broncos will meet in back to back games, with the latter coming in the opening round of the MWT – if SDST wins one of the two they are a lock; BSU on the other hand probably needs to win both, or at worst the MWT matchup, which would give them another opportunity to boost their resume likely facing New Mexico in the SF round. In summary, SDST needs one more win to become to 4th MWC team dancing, while BSU likely needs two or possibly three wins to feel comfortable about their positioning amongst the bubble teams.
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont (we feel the Bruins, sporting a #22 RPI, are a lock to dance so long as they advance to the OVC Championship Game next week)
Pac 12: Arizona
Looking good: UCLA [37], Oregon [47]
Need wins: California [50], Colorado [28]
Summary: this conference, just like last season, remains the biggest enigma. Right now it seems Arizona, UCLA & Oregon are likely to be dancing, with California & Colorado still in the mix. We give the edge to Cal between the two “Need Wins” teams based on conference record – Colorado still has two games remaining at home versus the pair of Oregon schools; win both and they too should be able to sit a little more comfortably come Selection Sunday. The P12T doesn’t appear to be that critical this season, but Cal & Colorado would both do themselves good by at least winning their opening round game. When all is said and done this conference will earn 4/5 bids.
Patriot: Bucknell (the Bison will be very tough to beat with the league’s MVP & Defensive POY Mike Muscala leading the way on their home court)
SEC: Florida
Looking good: Missouri
Need wins: Tennessee [56], Kentucky [53]
Life Support: Alabama [60]
Summary: along with the Pac 12 the SEC has quite a few teams that are in the mix, but yet to punch their dance ticket. Florida & Missouri will be taking part in the tournament, but TEN, UK & BAMA all have work to do. Tennessee closes the season at home versus Missouri, and a win there would be huge for their chances; Kentucky also has a big finale, hosting Florida; Alabama has a near lock win at home versus Georgia. It would seem if either UT or UK was able to win their finale they would be well positioned versus other bubble teams, but may also need an opening round win in the SECT to feel good about their positioning. If any of the three reaches the SECT SF round they also would feel good about their chances. As things currently stand it seems the SEC will have at least 3, possibly 4, and an outside shot at earning 5 bids this season.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: South Dakota State (this CT will be very entertaining with Western Illinois & North Dakota State battling the Jackrabbits for the conference’s automatic bid – I give SDST the edge since the tournament is taking place in South Dakota)
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State (the Raiders are also likely to earn an at-large selection behind a #23 RPI despite the fact they only have 1 RPI Top 100 win so long as they reach the SBT Final)
West Coast: Gonzaga
Looking Good: St. Mary’s [36]
Summary: Expect both teams to be dancing come Selection Sunday.
WAC: Louisiana Tech
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOOKING GOOD: 25 (+4 from last week)
Currently I project 56 of the 68 bids are earned. That means there are 12 unsecured/open bids.
NEED WINS: 12 (-3 to last week)
LIFE SUPPORT: 4 (-5 to last week)
That leaves 16 teams that are in the mix for 12 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.
As we wind down the season many of the “Need Wins” teams are well positioned to earn a bid, but others could still get themselves in trouble losing their last game or two (such as Minnesota or Illinois who would be left with sub .500 conference marks should they lose their finales). There are now only four teams on “Life Support” that still have enough good aspects of their resume to be included in the discussion, but also have a lot of work to do to better position themselves come Selection Sunday. And remember, we will see conference tournament upsets, and bid stealing situations – I believe teams such as Memphis, Akron, Belmont, and Middle Tennessee State are all non-AQ conference teams that would earn an at-large bid should they at least reach their conference tournament’s final and lose; and that does not include conferences such as the A10, MVC, and WCC that are just a step below the major conferences, but will have extremely competitive tournaments where teams could earn the automatic bid that are not even under discussion at this point (such as UMass, Indiana State, BYU respectively). All those situations warrant very close attention because at the end of the day, we will likely see approximately 5 of those instances, which obviously only slides up the level needed to earn a bid – in other words, it’s likely the 4 teams currently on “Life Support” will wind up well out of the field barring earning their conference automatic bid versus the “First Four Out” status they are currently under.
One thing is for sure, as we have seen all regular season, the final weekend and next week’s conference tournaments will be up for grabs – expect many upsets, and a handful of teams that will feel snubbed come Selection Sunday!
Next update will be Monday March 11 where the projected field will be discussed inclusive of all regular season action!
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