The NCAA Tournament is upon us, commencing this evening with a pair of “First Four Games”, to be followed by two more tomorrow evening. Quite often these games do not get any recognition or analysis because many assume these teams have no chance at advancing deep into the tourney – that is probably a correct assumption, however, for those that wager on college basketball, these games present money making opportunities just like every other matchup. With that in mind let’s break these games down, and see who has the edge.
640pm EDT - #16 Liberty (15-20) vs. #16 North Carolina A&T (19-16): in a matchup of perhaps the two worst teams in the Field of 68 the Flames of Liberty face the Aggies of NC A&T, with the winner moving on to meet #1 overall seed Louisville. There are rarely lines offered on these team’s games, but when they were posted Liberty was 5-3 while NC A&T was a robust 7-0. One key area that should always be focused on when breaking down any games, but especially neutral court games is each team’s record away from home; in this case Liberty was 5-11 road & 2-2 neutral for 7-13 total, while NC A&T was 5-12 road & 5-1 neutral for 10-13 total – small edge for NC A&T there. Looking a little closer at each team it appears the Aggies have some trouble scoring the ball: they made 19 or less baskets in 7 of their last 9 games, the only two they made more were the SF and F of their conference tournament…on the season they are shooting just 39.6% from the field, along with 30.2% from 3pt land – clearly not a strong offensive ball club. On the flip side offensively Liberty is more consistent and flat out better, as they hit less than 22 shots only once in their last 8 games, while shooting 42.2% from the field and 36.7% from the 3pt line this season. At the FT line Liberty has a relatively significant edge shooting 73.3% on the season while A&T is down at 65.6%. On the other side of the ball, defensively, NC A&T has just about the same edge as Liberty does offensively. In addition to those areas neither team has a positive rebound margin. With the matchup seemingly break-even using those stats I decided to dig deeper, and examine some Ken Pom figures, which adjust performance based on opponents and pace. Using KP’s figures the Flames have rankings of #184 off / #303 def, while NC A&T checks in at #317 off / #81 def – we can see from these rankings A&T’s defense could very well be the difference in this game, as it is the strongest unit in this matchup. Along with that, even though the Aggies offense is not rated very high, they will be facing a defense that is almost equally as inept at preventing their opponents from scoring the ball. With all that information I would lean towards backing the favorite North Carolina A&T, but this would not be a strong enough selection to be released to clients – especially because we are backing the favorite.
~915pm EDT - #11 St. Mary’s (27-6) vs. #11 Middle Tennessee State (28-5): in the nightcap of night #1 a pair of mid-majors clash when the Gaels and Blue Raiders tangle in Dayton for the right to move on and face fellow mid-major Memphis Thursday. Many analysts across the country had either or both of these teams not earning bids, but they both wound up sneaking into the field as two of the last four teams invited – now it’s their chance to prove they belong, especially Middle Tennessee State who pummeled the Sun Belt conference all season before suffering a near fatal early exit from the conference tournament last week. On the other side is NCAA Tournament familiar face St. Mary’s, who with 2013’s bid has reached the dance in 3 straight seasons, and four of the last five. Neither team had any issues whatsoever playing on road/neutral sites this year as STM is 11-5 while MTST is 13-5. Both teams were 50% winners as measured by ATS success, so neither has an edge there as far as being over or under valued in the eyes of Vegas. Since a loss to Northern Iowa on December 23 St. Mary’s has only lost to one team – Gonzaga – who beat the Gaels three times, earning the clean sweep including taking the conference tournament final last week. In addition to those four losses STM lost to Georgia Tech & Pacific on neutral sites at a holiday tournament during Thanksgiving. MTST has a similar story on their season – since losing @ Arkansas State on 1/3 they ran the table before losing in the SBT to Florida International 61-57; prior to those two losses they were knocked off @ Belmont big, @ Akron in OT, and by 21 on a neutral floor to Florida. So of their five losses on the season two were in OT, and another was by 4pts in their conference tournament – a solid resume despite the fact they don’t have many “solid” victories to hang their hat on. Breaking down this matchup statistically doesn’t yield too many edges to speak of overall, but using the away games split favors STM both offensively & defensively. The Gaels are +3.8% in off FG& +2.3% in def FG% - both are relatively sizeable advantages. Both teams are strong rebounding wise, and can shoot the 3 and FT above average. There are two additional edges that favor the Gaels tonight: one being Matthew Dellavadova & two being the experience this team has since they have taken part and won games in the NCAA Tournament over the last few seasons. A lot of me wants to take Middle Tennessee State in this game because I believe they deserved to receive a bid, and with a loss I feel they will be given an even tougher time than now – especially if they came out with a bad performance. However, when you want to make money you must use your head, and not your emotions – and for that reason, and everything discussed above, I will back St. Mary’s to dispatch MTST and move on to face the Memphis Tigers Thursday.
Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of James Madison vs. LIU Brooklyn & Boise State vs. LaSalle.
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