College Basketball SBPI Breakdown of 2014 NCAA Tournament

We previously published a review of the 2010 NCAA Tournament in mid-October 2014, which can be found to the right on the toolbar of past posts; today let’s take a detailed look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament.

What is the College Basketball SBPI?  It’s a comprehensive system for college basketball teams that grades performance in 10 offensive & defensive categories, adjusts those raw figures for SOS, then slots teams into their proper power ratings.  Each week we have posted an updated SBPI for the 2015 season – check toolbar to the right to reference.

Let’s take a look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament using the SBPI ranks & power ratings for those seasons, comparing those “lines” to what Vegas closed at, and grading our plays.  We have graded every play that had a 0.6 point or greater variance between our line & Vegas closing # - and you will see how solid the results are.  Why show the results of an NCAA Tournament?  Well it removes many of the other variables we use when handicapping during the regular season – each team needs a win to advance so we can generally expect a team to give its best effort – it does not always translate to such, but it’s the situation that removes the most other variables we utilize during the regular season.

Legend:

SBPI Rank: where each team’s power rating slotted them that specific season

SBPI Rating: true strength of a team.  The difference between teams SBPI Rating is the spread we project for a matchup between the two schools

SBPI Line: simply the difference between each team’s SBPI rating (“-“equals favorite)

Vegas Line: the closing line on each game

SBPI Pick: identifies the side the SBPI directs us to playing based on comparing SBPI Line vs. Vegas Line

Here is the Midwest Region:

SBPI				SBPI	Vegas	SBPI
Rank	Rating		Seed	Line	Line	Pick	Grade
32	84.5	WICHITA STATE	1	-9.3	-17	CAL POLY	LOSS
114	75.2	CAL POLY	16
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8	-7.4	-6	KENTUCKY	WIN
40	83	KANSAS STATE	9
34	84.2	SAINT LOUIS	5	-4.8	-3	SAINT LOUIS	-
75	79.4	NC STATE	12
4	92.8	LOUISVILLE	4	-14.7	-16	MANHATTAN	WIN
85	78.1	MANHATTAN	13
37	83.4	MASSACHUSETTS	6
3	93.2	TENNESSEE	11	-9.8	-6	TENNESSEE	WIN
6	91.4	DUKE	3	-17.5	-13	DUKE	LOSS
135	73.9	MERCER	14
39	83	TEXAS	7	-0.6	-2.5	ARIZONA STATE	WIN
47	82.4	ARIZONA STATE	10
16	88.7	MICHIGAN	2	-17.8	-15	MICHIGAN	WIN
190	70.9	WOFFORD	15
32	84.5	WICHITA STATE	1		-4.5	KENTUCKY	WIN
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8	-5.9
34	84.2	SAINT LOUIS	5
4	92.8	LOUISVILLE	4	-8.6	-10	SAINT LOUIS	LOSS
3	93.2	TENNESSEE	11	-19.3	-8.5	TENNESSEE	WIN
135	73.9	MERCER	14
39	83	TEXAS	7
16	88.7	MICHIGAN	2	-5.7	-5	MICHIGAN	WIN
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8
4	92.8	LOUISVILLE	4	-2.4	-4.5	KENTUCKY	WIN
3	93.2	TENNESSEE	11	-4.5
16	88.7	MICHIGAN	2		-2.5	TENNESSEE	WIN
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8	-1.7	-2	-	-
16	88.7	MICHIGAN	2

Next up is the West Region, winner of which would play Midwest Region winner Kentucky in the Final Four:

SBPI				SBPI	Vegas	SBPI
Rank	Rating		Seed	Line	Line	Pick	Grade
2	94	ARIZONA	1	-25.4	-20	ARIZONA	LOSS
243	68.6	WEBER STATE	16
51	82	GONZAGA	8
30	84.9	OKLAHOMA STATE	9	-2.9	-4	GONZAGA	WIN
26	85.3	OKLAHOMA	5	-7.1	-3.5	OKLAHOMA	LOSS
84	78.2	N. DAKOTA STATE	12
12	89.9	SAN DIEGO STATE	4	-17.2	-8	SD STATE	LOSS
160	72.7	NEW MEX STATE	13
13	89.6	BAYLOR	6	-7.9	-3.5	BAYLOR	WIN
52	81.7	NEBRASKA	11
44	82.8	CREIGHTON	3	-5.9	-13.5	UL LAFAYETTE	WIN
101	76.9	UL LAFAYETTE	14
31	84.6	OREGON	7	-3	-5	BYU	LOSS
56	81.6	BYU	10
5	92	WISCONSIN	2	-22.4	-14	WISCONSIN	WIN
219	69.6	AMERICAN	15
2	94	ARIZONA	1	-12	-7.5	ARIZONA	WIN
51	82	GONZAGA	8
84	78.2	N. DAKOTA STATE	12
12	89.9	SAN DIEGO STATE	4	-11.7	-4	SD STATE	WIN
13	89.6	BAYLOR	6	-6.8
44	82.8	CREIGHTON	3		-3.5	BAYLOR	WIN
31	84.6	OREGON	7
5	92	WISCONSIN	2	-7.4	-6	WISCONSIN	WIN
2	94	ARIZONA	1	-4.1	-7.5	SAN DIEGO STATE	WIN
12	89.9	SAN DIEGO STATE	4
13	89.6	BAYLOR	6
5	92	WISCONSIN	2	-2.4	-4	BAYLOR	LOSS
2	94	ARIZONA	1	-2	-3.5	WISCONSIN	WIN
5	92	WISCONSIN	2

On to the other side of the Field of 64 – first up let’s look at the East:

SBPI				SBPI	Vegas	SBPI
Rank	Rating		Seed	Line	Line	Pick	Grade
11	90.1	VIRGINIA	1	-23.1	-19.5	VIRGINIA	LOSS
265	67	COAST CAROLINA	16
25	85.3	MEMPHIS	8	-2.4	-4	G. WASHINGTON	LOSS
42	82.9	G. WASHINGTON	9
18	88.3	CINCINNATI	5	-6.6	-3	CINCINNATI	LOSS
54	81.7	HARVARD	12
17	88.5	MICHIGAN STATE	4	-15.3	-15	-	-
151	73.2	DELAWARE	13
22	86.4	NORTH CAROLINA	6	-1.5	-4.5	PROVIDENCE	WIN
29	84.9	PROVIDENCE	11
24	86.1	IOWA STATE	3	-16.9	-8.5	IOWA STATE	WIN
224	69.2	NC CENTRAL	14
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7	-4.7	-5	-	-
58	81.5	SAINT JOSEPHS	10
9	90.4	VILLANOVA	2	-18.4	-16.5	VILLANOVA	WIN
171	72.0	MILWAUKEE	15
11	90.1	VIRGINIA	1	-4.8	-7	MEMPHIS	LOSS
25	85.3	MEMPHIS	8
54	81.7	HARVARD	12
17	88.5	MICHIGAN STATE	4	-6.8	-8.5	HARVARD	WIN
22	86.4	NORTH CAROLINA	6	-0.3
24	86.1	IOWA STATE	3		-1.5	NORTH CAROLINA	LOSS
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7
9	90.4	VILLANOVA	2	-4.2	-4	-	-
11	90.1	VIRGINIA	1	-1.6
17	88.5	MICHIGAN STATE	4		-2.5	VIRGINIA	WIN
24	86.4	IOWA STATE	3	-0.2	-1	CONNECTICUT	WIN
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7
17	88.5	MICHIGAN STATE	4	-2.3	-5.5	CONNECTICUT	WIN
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7

Finally, here is the South, winner of which would play East Region winner Connecticut in the Final Four:

SBPI				SBPI	Vegas	SBPI
Rank	Rating		Seed	Line	Line	Pick	Grade
1	96.5	FLORIDA	1	-27.8	-22	FLORIDA	LOSS
239	68.7	ALBANY	16
38	83	COLORADO	8
10	90.3	PITTSBURGH	9	-7.3	-6	PITTSBURGH	WIN
14	89.5	VCU	5	-15.6	-6	VCU	LOSS
137	73.9	SF AUSTIN	12
21	86.5	UCLA	4	-8.9	-8	UCLA	WIN
90	77.6	TULSA	13
7	90.8	OHIO STATE	6	-6.6	-6.5	-	-
33	84.2	DAYTON	11
15	88.7	SYRACUSE	3	-19.8	-13	SYRACUSE	WIN
233	68.9	W. MICHIGAN	14
62	81.2	NEW MEXICO	7		-4.5	STANFORD	WIN
35	84.1	STANFORD	10	-2.9
19	87.6	KANSAS	2	-14.7	-13	KANSAS	LOSS
157	72.9	E. KENTUCKY	15
1	96.5	FLORIDA	1	-6.2	-5.5	FLORIDA	WIN
10	90.3	PITTSBURGH	9
137	73.9	SF AUSTIN	12
21	86.5	UCLA	4	-12.6	-9.5	UCLA	WIN
33	84.2	DAYTON	11
15	88.7	SYRACUSE	3	-4.5	-8.5	DAYTON	WIN
35	84.1	STANFORD	10
19	87.6	KANSAS	2	-3.5	-6.5	STANFORD	WIN
1	96.5	FLORIDA	1	-10	-4.5	FLORIDA	WIN
21	86.5	UCLA	4
33	84.2	DAYTON	11	-0.1
35	84.1	STANFORD	10		-3.5	DAYTON	WIN
1	96.5	FLORIDA	1	-12.3	-10.5	FLORIDA	LOSS
33	84.2	DAYTON	11

Lastly, here is how the Final Four bracket worked out:

SBPI				SBPI	Vegas	SBPI
Rank	Rating		Seed	Line	Line	Pick	Grade
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7
1	96.5	FLORIDA	1	-10.3	-7	FLORIDA	LOSS
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8		-1	WISCONSIN	-
5	92	WISCONSIN	2	-1.6
23	86.2	CONNECTICUT	7
8	90.4	KENTUCKY	8	-4.2	-2.5	KENTUCKY	LOSS

Here were the ATS records per the SBPI plays laid out above:

RECORDS
1ST	16-12-4	57.1%
2ND	12-3-1	80.0%
S16	7-1-0	87.5%
E8	2-1-1	66.7%
F4	0-1-1	0.0%
TITLE	0-1-0	0.0%
TOTAL	37-19-7	66.1%

In addition to cashing 66.1% of the 63 NCAA Tournament games that season the SBPI posted a 4-1 ATS mark when it had one team favored while Vegas was on other side (the loss was a close one when Iowa State beat North Carolina narrowly)!  Note also of the 12 losses in the Round of 64 FOUR came when playing strictly a “line” in the 1 vs. 16 seed games.  The SBPI posted an 21-7 mark in the Round of 32 & deeper rounds showing it is extremely accurate when slotting how “strong” these teams truly are, especially when we get to the “cream of the crop” teams that advance deep versus playing “lines” in the earlier rounds.

All the NCAA Tournaments we have tested dating back to the 2010 version have a similar ATS winning percentage (above 60%)!

Thanks for reading, if you have any questions please feel free to reach out. 

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