Wednesday, February 25, 2015

College Basketball SBPI Breakdown of 2014 NCAA Tournament



We previously published a review of the 2010 NCAA Tournament in mid-October 2014, which can be found to the right on the toolbar of past posts; today let’s take a detailed look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament.

What is the College Basketball SBPI?  It’s a comprehensive system for college basketball teams that grades performance in 10 offensive & defensive categories, adjusts those raw figures for SOS, then slots teams into their proper power ratings.  Each week we have posted an updated SBPI for the 2015 season – check toolbar to the right to reference.

Let’s take a look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament using the SBPI ranks & power ratings for those seasons, comparing those “lines” to what Vegas closed at, and grading our plays.  We have graded every play that had a 0.6 point or greater variance between our line & Vegas closing # - and you will see how solid the results are.  Why show the results of an NCAA Tournament?  Well it removes many of the other variables we use when handicapping during the regular season – each team needs a win to advance so we can generally expect a team to give its best effort – it does not always translate to such, but it’s the situation that removes the most other variables we utilize during the regular season.

Legend:
SBPI Rank: where each team’s power rating slotted them that specific season
SBPI Rating: true strength of a team.  The difference between teams SBPI Rating is the spread we project for a matchup between the two schools
SBPI Line: simply the difference between each team’s SBPI rating (“-“equals favorite)
Vegas Line: the closing line on each game
SBPI Pick: identifies the side the SBPI directs us to playing based on comparing SBPI Line vs. Vegas Line

Here is the Midwest Region:

SBPI


SBPI
Vegas
SBPI

Rank
Rating

Seed
Line
Line
Pick
Grade
32
84.5
WICHITA STATE
1
-9.3
-17
CAL POLY
LOSS
114
75.2
CAL POLY
16












8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8
-7.4
-6
KENTUCKY
WIN
40
83
KANSAS STATE
9












34
84.2
SAINT LOUIS
5
-4.8
-3
SAINT LOUIS
-
75
79.4
NC STATE
12












4
92.8
LOUISVILLE
4
-14.7
-16
MANHATTAN
WIN
85
78.1
MANHATTAN
13












37
83.4
MASSACHUSETTS
6




3
93.2
TENNESSEE
11
-9.8
-6
TENNESSEE
WIN








6
91.4
DUKE
3
-17.5
-13
DUKE
LOSS
135
73.9
MERCER
14












39
83
TEXAS
7
-0.6
-2.5
ARIZONA STATE
WIN
47
82.4
ARIZONA STATE
10












16
88.7
MICHIGAN
2
-17.8
-15
MICHIGAN
WIN
190
70.9
WOFFORD
15




















32
84.5
WICHITA STATE
1

-4.5
KENTUCKY
WIN
8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8
-5.9











34
84.2
SAINT LOUIS
5




4
92.8
LOUISVILLE
4
-8.6
-10
SAINT LOUIS
LOSS








3
93.2
TENNESSEE
11
-19.3
-8.5
TENNESSEE
WIN
135
73.9
MERCER
14












39
83
TEXAS
7




16
88.7
MICHIGAN
2
-5.7
-5
MICHIGAN
WIN
















8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8




4
92.8
LOUISVILLE
4
-2.4
-4.5
KENTUCKY
WIN








3
93.2
TENNESSEE
11
-4.5



16
88.7
MICHIGAN
2

-2.5
TENNESSEE
WIN
















8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8
-1.7
-2
-
-
16
88.7
MICHIGAN
2






Next up is the West Region, winner of which would play Midwest Region winner Kentucky in the Final Four:

SBPI


SBPI
Vegas
SBPI

Rank
Rating

Seed
Line
Line
Pick
Grade
2
94
ARIZONA
1
-25.4
-20
ARIZONA
LOSS
243
68.6
WEBER STATE
16












51
82
GONZAGA
8




30
84.9
OKLAHOMA STATE
9
-2.9
-4
GONZAGA
WIN








26
85.3
OKLAHOMA
5
-7.1
-3.5
OKLAHOMA
LOSS
84
78.2
N. DAKOTA STATE
12












12
89.9
SAN DIEGO STATE
4
-17.2
-8
SD STATE
LOSS
160
72.7
NEW MEX STATE
13












13
89.6
BAYLOR
6
-7.9
-3.5
BAYLOR
WIN
52
81.7
NEBRASKA
11












44
82.8
CREIGHTON
3
-5.9
-13.5
UL LAFAYETTE
WIN
101
76.9
UL LAFAYETTE
14












31
84.6
OREGON
7
-3
-5
BYU
LOSS
56
81.6
BYU
10












5
92
WISCONSIN
2
-22.4
-14
WISCONSIN
WIN
219
69.6
AMERICAN
15




















2
94
ARIZONA
1
-12
-7.5
ARIZONA
WIN
51
82
GONZAGA
8












84
78.2
N. DAKOTA STATE
12




12
89.9
SAN DIEGO STATE
4
-11.7
-4
SD STATE
WIN








13
89.6
BAYLOR
6
-6.8



44
82.8
CREIGHTON
3

-3.5
BAYLOR
WIN








31
84.6
OREGON
7




5
92
WISCONSIN
2
-7.4
-6
WISCONSIN
WIN
















2
94
ARIZONA
1
-4.1
-7.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
WIN
12
89.9
SAN DIEGO STATE
4












13
89.6
BAYLOR
6




5
92
WISCONSIN
2
-2.4
-4
BAYLOR
LOSS
















2
94
ARIZONA
1
-2
-3.5
WISCONSIN
WIN
5
92
WISCONSIN
2





On to the other side of the Field of 64 – first up let’s look at the East:

SBPI


SBPI
Vegas
SBPI

Rank
Rating

Seed
Line
Line
Pick
Grade
11
90.1
VIRGINIA
1
-23.1
-19.5
VIRGINIA
LOSS
265
67
COAST CAROLINA
16












25
85.3
MEMPHIS
8
-2.4
-4
G. WASHINGTON
LOSS
42
82.9
G. WASHINGTON
9












18
88.3
CINCINNATI
5
-6.6
-3
CINCINNATI
LOSS
54
81.7
HARVARD
12












17
88.5
MICHIGAN STATE
4
-15.3
-15
-
-
151
73.2
DELAWARE
13












22
86.4
NORTH CAROLINA
6
-1.5
-4.5
PROVIDENCE
WIN
29
84.9
PROVIDENCE
11












24
86.1
IOWA STATE
3
-16.9
-8.5
IOWA STATE
WIN
224
69.2
NC CENTRAL
14












23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7
-4.7
-5
-
-
58
81.5
SAINT JOSEPHS
10












9
90.4
VILLANOVA
2
-18.4
-16.5
VILLANOVA
WIN
171
72.0
MILWAUKEE
15




















11
90.1
VIRGINIA
1
-4.8
-7
MEMPHIS
LOSS
25
85.3
MEMPHIS
8












54
81.7
HARVARD
12




17
88.5
MICHIGAN STATE
4
-6.8
-8.5
HARVARD
WIN








22
86.4
NORTH CAROLINA
6
-0.3



24
86.1
IOWA STATE
3

-1.5
NORTH CAROLINA
LOSS








23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7




9
90.4
VILLANOVA
2
-4.2
-4
-
-
















11
90.1
VIRGINIA
1
-1.6



17
88.5
MICHIGAN STATE
4

-2.5
VIRGINIA
WIN








24
86.4
IOWA STATE
3
-0.2
-1
CONNECTICUT
WIN
23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7




















17
88.5
MICHIGAN STATE
4
-2.3
-5.5
CONNECTICUT
WIN
23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7





Finally, here is the South, winner of which would play East Region winner Connecticut in the Final Four:

SBPI


SBPI
Vegas
SBPI

Rank
Rating

Seed
Line
Line
Pick
Grade
1
96.5
FLORIDA
1
-27.8
-22
FLORIDA
LOSS
239
68.7
ALBANY
16












38
83
COLORADO
8




10
90.3
PITTSBURGH
9
-7.3
-6
PITTSBURGH
WIN








14
89.5
VCU
5
-15.6
-6
VCU
LOSS
137
73.9
SF AUSTIN
12












21
86.5
UCLA
4
-8.9
-8
UCLA
WIN
90
77.6
TULSA
13












7
90.8
OHIO STATE
6
-6.6
-6.5
-
-
33
84.2
DAYTON
11












15
88.7
SYRACUSE
3
-19.8
-13
SYRACUSE
WIN
233
68.9
W. MICHIGAN
14












62
81.2
NEW MEXICO
7

-4.5
STANFORD
WIN
35
84.1
STANFORD
10
-2.9











19
87.6
KANSAS
2
-14.7
-13
KANSAS
LOSS
157
72.9
E. KENTUCKY
15




















1
96.5
FLORIDA
1
-6.2
-5.5
FLORIDA
WIN
10
90.3
PITTSBURGH
9












137
73.9
SF AUSTIN
12




21
86.5
UCLA
4
-12.6
-9.5
UCLA
WIN








33
84.2
DAYTON
11




15
88.7
SYRACUSE
3
-4.5
-8.5
DAYTON
WIN








35
84.1
STANFORD
10




19
87.6
KANSAS
2
-3.5
-6.5
STANFORD
WIN
















1
96.5
FLORIDA
1
-10
-4.5
FLORIDA
WIN
21
86.5
UCLA
4












33
84.2
DAYTON
11
-0.1



35
84.1
STANFORD
10

-3.5
DAYTON
WIN
















1
96.5
FLORIDA
1
-12.3
-10.5
FLORIDA
LOSS
33
84.2
DAYTON
11





Lastly, here is how the Final Four bracket worked out:

SBPI


SBPI
Vegas
SBPI

Rank
Rating

Seed
Line
Line
Pick
Grade
23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7




1
96.5
FLORIDA
1
-10.3
-7
FLORIDA
LOSS








8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8

-1
WISCONSIN
-
5
92
WISCONSIN
2
-1.6



















23
86.2
CONNECTICUT
7




8
90.4
KENTUCKY
8
-4.2
-2.5
KENTUCKY
LOSS

Here were the ATS records per the SBPI plays laid out above:

RECORDS
1ST
16-12-4
57.1%
2ND
12-3-1
80.0%
S16
7-1-0
87.5%
E8
2-1-1
66.7%
F4
0-1-1
0.0%
TITLE
0-1-0
0.0%
TOTAL
37-19-7
66.1%

In addition to cashing 66.1% of the 63 NCAA Tournament games that season the SBPI posted a 4-1 ATS mark when it had one team favored while Vegas was on other side (the loss was a close one when Iowa State beat North Carolina narrowly)!  Note also of the 12 losses in the Round of 64 FOUR came when playing strictly a “line” in the 1 vs. 16 seed games.  The SBPI posted an 21-7 mark in the Round of 32 & deeper rounds showing it is extremely accurate when slotting how “strong” these teams truly are, especially when we get to the “cream of the crop” teams that advance deep versus playing “lines” in the earlier rounds.

All the NCAA Tournaments we have tested dating back to the 2010 version have a similar ATS winning percentage (above 60%)!

Thanks for reading, if you have any questions please feel free to reach out. 

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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