Monday, March 31, 2014

NBA 2013-2014: Performance Ratings, Power Ratings & Projected Playoff Seeds thru 03/30/14





OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
Team
SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK
Minnesota
35
3

47
8

82
1
L.A. Clippers
30
1

56
11

86
2
Portland
34
2

58
14

92
3
Oklahoma City
53
10

42
5

95
4
Houston
36
4

59
16

95
4
Toronto
47
6

51
10

98
6
San Antonio
66
17

34
2

100
7
Memphis
58
13

44
7

102
8
Golden State
63
15

40
4

103
9
Indiana
75
21

31
1

106
10
Chicago
75
21

34
2

109
11
Charlotte
68
20

42
5

110
12
Phoenix
51
9

69
18

120
13
Miami
65
16

57
12

122
14
Sacramento
49
7

74
22

123
15
Washington
75
21

48
9

123
15
Cleveland
67
19

57
12

124
17
Dallas
49
7

77
24

126
18
Detroit
57
12

71
19

128
19
New Orleans
41
5

89
27

130
20
Denver
55
11

76
23

131
21
Brooklyn
62
14

71
19

133
22
Atlanta
78
26

58
14

136
23
Orlando
85
28

59
16

144
24
New York
66
17

83
25

149
25
Boston
85
28

71
19

156
26
L.A. Lakers
78
26

86
26

164
27
Utah
77
25

92
29

169
28
Milwaukee
76
24

94
30

170
29
Philadelphia
104
30

90
28

194
30
               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.  Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing.  Using an equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping efforts when properly applied.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:


HOME
ROAD

Power Rating
Power Rating
L.A. Clippers
117.0
113.0
Miami
116.5
112.5
San Antonio
115.3
111.8
Golden State
114.5
111.5
Oklahoma City
115.5
111.5
Dallas
114.1
111.1
Toronto
113.9
110.9
Houston
114.2
110.7
Indiana
114.6
110.6
Phoenix
113.2
110.2
Memphis
112.9
109.9
Minnesota
112.8
109.8
Washington
111.1
108.6
Portland
111.9
108.4
New York
110.2
108.2
Brooklyn
111.2
108.2
Charlotte
110.6
108.1
Chicago
110.9
107.9
New Orleans
110.2
107.7
Detroit
109.4
107.4
Denver
109.8
107.3
Atlanta
109.6
107.1
Sacramento
108.7
106.7
Cleveland
107.8
105.8
Boston
107.2
105.2
Orlando
106.4
104.4
L.A. Lakers
105.5
103.5
Milwaukee
104.9
102.9
Utah
104.8
102.8
Philadelphia
102.0
100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups. 

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:


Win %

ATS Win %

Projected Wins

Current SOS

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

SOS
RANK
L.A. Clippers
0.703
3

0.562
4

57.87
3

0.507
13
Miami
0.694
5

0.471
19

57.10
4

0.543
5
San Antonio
0.781
1

0.548
6

63.28
1

0.574
1
Golden State
0.616
8

0.486
17

50.90
8

0.538
7
Oklahoma City
0.740
2

0.549
5

59.98
2

0.565
2
Dallas
0.595
9

0.541
9

49.07
9

0.530
9
Toronto
0.575
12

0.606
2

47.47
12

0.514
11
Houston
0.681
6

0.529
10

55.07
6

0.554
3
Indiana
0.703
3

0.479
18

56.84
5

0.540
6
Phoenix
0.595
9

0.658
1

48.76
10

0.526
10
Memphis
0.589
11

0.465
22

48.29
11

0.533
8
Minnesota
0.500
16

0.486
15

41.75
16

0.505
14
Washington
0.521
15

0.514
11

43.18
15

0.497
17
Portland
0.640
7

0.547
7

51.69
7

0.545
4
New York
0.419
21

0.432
28

35.06
21

0.467
24
Brooklyn
0.542
14

0.542
8

44.19
14

0.505
14
Charlotte
0.479
17

0.586
3

39.40
17

0.491
18
Chicago
0.562
13

0.486
15

45.39
13

0.513
12
New Orleans
0.438
18

0.471
21

36.28
18

0.491
18
Detroit
0.356
23

0.431
29

30.21
23

0.456
26
Denver
0.438
18

0.452
23

35.82
19

0.491
18
Atlanta
0.431
20

0.437
26

35.16
20

0.479
21
Sacramento
0.342
24

0.471
19

28.48
24

0.469
23
Cleveland
0.400
22

0.493
14

32.71
22

0.470
22
Boston
0.315
26

0.507
13

26.22
26

0.448
27
Orlando
0.284
28

0.437
26

23.80
28

0.435
28
L.A. Lakers
0.342
24

0.514
11

27.39
25

0.503
16
Milwaukee
0.192
30

0.452
23

16.30
30

0.412
30
Utah
0.311
27

0.449
25

24.91
27

0.464
25
Philadelphia
0.219
29

0.397
30

18.04
29

0.420
29

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season (and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get).  Based on these projections the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that have a chance at reaching playoffs.  Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 63-19
#2 Oklahoma City 60-22
#3 LA Clippers 58-24
#4 Houston 55-27
#5 Portland 52-30
#6 Golden State 51-31
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Phoenix 49-33
#9 Memphis 48-34

Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 57-25
#2 Indiana 57-25
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Chicago 45-37
#5 Brooklyn 44-38
#6 Washington 43-39
#7 Charlotte 39-43
#8 Atlanta 35-47
#9 New York 35-47
#10 Cleveland 33-49

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