Monday, March 3, 2014

SBPI: SportsBoss Power Index thru 03/02/14



After nearly 2 full calendar years of work, tweaking and adjusting I am finally ready to publish my initial SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI) of all 351 teams in college basketball!  It has taken a ton of work, many adjustments and tweaks, but I feel comfortable with the numbers, and have finally mathematically found a way to minimize the number of “outliers” where publishing these figures makes sense.  

Without further ado here are the numbers for the Top 100 teams:



NON-ADJ RATINGS

ADJ RATINGS
Team
Conf

OFF
DEF
SUM
RANK

SOS
SUM
RANK
Arizona
P12

150
149
299
6

0.372
410.3
1
Florida
SEC

142
158
300
5

0.324
397.1
2
Villanova
BE

166
113
279
12

0.398
389.9
3
Duke
ACC

166
109
275
17

0.403
385.9
4
Wisconsin
B10

126
130
256
24

0.456
372.8
5
Ohio State
B10

114
165
279
12

0.325
369.5
6
Tennessee
SEC

148
129
277
14

0.318
365.2
7
Virginia
ACC

112
157
269
18

0.348
362.7
8
Michigan
B10

129
120
249
35

0.438
358.1
9
Syracuse
ACC

129
137
266
20

0.344
357.5
10
VCU
A10

148
133
281
11

0.267
356.1
11
Pittsburgh
ACC

144
133
277
14

0.282
355.0
12
Kansas
B12

143
84
227
87

0.540
349.7
13
San Diego State
MWC

144
161
305
2

0.142
348.2
14
Michigan State
B10

139
111
250
34

0.382
345.4
15
Baylor
B12

162
84
246
45

0.396
343.5
16
Louisville
AAC

175
136
311
1

0.095
340.5
17
Iowa
B10

170
93
263
22

0.294
340.3
18
Cincinnati
AAC

131
161
292
9

0.157
337.7
19
Providence
BE

142
102
244
48

0.371
334.6
20
North Carolina
ACC

153
96
249
35

0.341
334.0
21
Creighton
BE

135
105
240
55

0.359
326.2
22
UCLA
P12

149
105
254
26

0.280
325.1
23
Maryland
ACC

127
101
228
83

0.424
324.6
24
Iowa State
B12

149
78
227
87

0.404
318.7
25
Oklahoma
B12

165
61
226
92

0.410
318.6
26
Kentucky
SEC

150
89
239
60

0.331
318.1
27
Oklahoma State
B12

150
92
242
50

0.313
317.7
28
Marquette
BE

131
104
235
67

0.344
315.9
29
Wichita State
MVC

149
146
295
7

0.059
312.4
30
Connecticut
AAC

135
113
248
41

0.252
310.5
31
Butler
BE

112
110
222
109

0.392
309.0
32
Oregon
P12

159
81
240
55

0.286
308.7
33
Massachusetts
A10

139
89
228
83

0.354
308.6
34
George Washington
A10

136
116
252
29

0.221
307.8
35
Stanford
P12

129
90
219
122

0.405
307.7
36
Minnesota
B10

126
92
218
127

0.411
307.5
37
Texas
B12

149
73
222
109

0.385
307.4
38
Utah
P12

135
133
268
19

0.145
306.8
39
Colorado
P12

120
104
224
100

0.350
302.5
40
Saint Louis
A10

107
147
254
26

0.189
302.0
41
Illinois
B10

95
131
226
92

0.334
301.4
42
Memphis
AAC

144
99
243
49

0.238
300.9
43
Xavier
BE

127
96
223
104

0.348
300.7
44
Arizona State
P12

129
100
229
78

0.312
300.4
45
St. John's
BE

122
108
230
76

0.302
299.6
46
Boise State
MWC

150
95
245
46

0.219
298.7
47
Dayton
A10

144
107
251
33

0.188
298.3
48
Kansas State
B12

124
103
227
87

0.303
295.9
49
Brigham Young
WCC

164
64
228
83

0.294
295.1
50
Arkansas
SEC

159
90
249
35

0.184
294.8
51
Saint Mary's
WCC

141
113
254
26

0.156
293.5
52
Georgetown
BE

115
93
208
152

0.399
291.0
53
West Virginia
B12

159
64
223
104

0.304
290.8
54
Gonzaga
WCC

139
103
242
50

0.178
285.0
55
Indiana
B10

114
114
228
83

0.249
284.9
56
New Mexico
MWC

140
95
235
67

0.201
282.2
57
Nebraska
B10

91
116
207
156

0.363
282.2
58
Texas Tech
B12

122
86
208
152

0.349
280.6
59
St. Bonaventure
A10

140
108
248
41

0.129
279.9
60
Saint Joseph's
A10

119
105
224
100

0.249
279.7
61
La Salle
A10

114
96
210
147

0.326
278.5
62
Purdue
B10

141
75
216
133

0.289
278.3
63
California
P12

119
86
205
170

0.357
278.1
64
San Francisco
WCC

149
80
229
78

0.208
276.6
65
Florida State
ACC

109
86
195
204

0.410
275.0
66
Harvard
IVY

130
165
295
7

-0.069
274.7
67
Clemson
ACC

97
127
224
100

0.222
273.7
68
DePaul
BE

118
76
194
210

0.408
273.2
69
Green Bay
HORIZON

138
118
256
24

0.066
273.0
70
Alabama
SEC

103
88
191
222

0.419
271.1
71
Washington
P12

133
76
209
149

0.291
269.8
72
Notre Dame
ACC

122
85
207
156

0.298
268.7
73
Penn State
B10

125
71
196
199

0.362
267.0
74
Louisiana Tech
CUSA

172
130
302
4

-0.122
265.3
75
South Carolina
SEC

113
93
206
162

0.285
264.7
76
Southern Methodist
AAC

119
117
236
66

0.121
264.5
77
Middle Tennessee State
CUSA

136
148
284
10

-0.072
263.6
78
Ole Miss
SEC

154
66
220
118

0.196
263.1
79
Northern Iowa
MVC

125
90
215
135

0.223
263.0
80
Pacific
WCC

133
77
210
147

0.242
260.8
81
Miami (FL)
ACC

82
119
201
186

0.297
260.8
82
Oakland
HORIZON

130
75
205
170

0.270
260.4
83
LSU
SEC

135
71
206
162

0.262
260.0
84
Missouri
SEC

133
74
207
156

0.240
256.8
85
North Dakota State
SUMMIT

135
107
242
50

0.054
255.0
86
Utah State
MWC

125
109
234
69

0.088
254.6
87
Tulsa
CUSA

130
111
241
53

0.046
252.1
88
Seton Hall
BE

115
91
206
162

0.221
251.5
89
Boston College
ACC

108
59
167
289

0.493
249.4
90
North Carolina State
ACC

120
70
190
225

0.311
249.2
91
UNLV
MWC

141
106
247
43

0.008
248.9
92
Eastern Michigan
MAC

104
110
214
139

0.157
247.5
93
UCF
AAC

124
74
198
195

0.250
247.5
94
Northwestern
B10

65
112
177
263

0.395
247.0
95
Cleveland State
HORIZON

132
99
231
74

0.069
247.0
96
Long Beach State
BIG WEST

117
75
192
219

0.278
245.3
97
Richmond
A10

101
103
204
176

0.201
245.0
98
George Mason
A10

99
87
186
235

0.308
243.3
99
Georgia Tech
ACC

92
103
195
204

0.243
242.3
100

Here is the LEGEND that explains each figure in the above matrix:
1st column OFF: rating of each team’s offense
2nd column DEF: rating of each team’s defense
3rd column SUM: each team’s offense rating plus each team’s defense rating
4th column RANK: how each team’s sum rating ranks versus the other 351 teams in the country
5th column SOS: adjustment to be made for schedule each team has faced to date
6th column ADJ RATING: SUM from above times 1 plus the SOS adjustment
7th column RANK: how each team’s SOS sum rating ranks versus the other 351 teams in the country

One important aspect to remember when examining and potentially using these ratings in your handicapping is my formula weights each of my 10 statistics (on offense & defense) evenly in this presentation.  We do know however that effective FG % for example will have more of an impact on scoring points and thus winning games versus offensive rebounds – but each is significant and correlated to scoring points.  The best rating a team could earn is 200 on offense & defense before being adjusted for SOS.

For comparison purposes let’s take a look at my Top 25, the AP Top 25, KenPom Top 25, Sagarin Top 25, RPI Top 25 and BPI Top 25:




AP
KENPOM
SAGARIN
RPI
BPI
Team
RANK

RANK
RANK
RANK
RANK
RANK
Arizona
1

3
1
1
1
1
Florida
2

1
4
6
3
2
Villanova
3

6
8
3
5
8
Duke
4

4
3
2
8
5
Wisconsin
5

9
10
9
4
9
Ohio State
6


14
14
25
17
Tennessee
7


23



Virginia
8

5
2
7
10
7
Michigan
9

12
13
11
12
22
Syracuse
10

7
11
16
6
10
VCU
11


17

15
21
Pittsburgh
12


15
21

13
Kansas
13

8
9
4
2
3
San Diego State
14

10

25
22

Michigan State
15

22
20
12
23
18
Baylor
16






Louisville
17

11
5
5

6
Iowa
18

24
12
10

16
Cincinnati
19

15
18
24
16
24
Providence
20






North Carolina
21

14
22
23
18

Creighton
22

13
7
8
9
11
UCLA
23


16
18
21
15
Maryland
24






Iowa State
25

16

13
11
14

Next up let’s examine conference by conference SOS so we can get a feel for which conferences are the toughest, likely leading to additional teams earning bids for the NCAA Tournament:

CONFERENCE
STRENGTH
B10
1
BE
2
B12
3
ACC
4
P12
5
A10
6
SEC
7
AAC
8
WCC
9
MWC
10
HORIZON
11
MVC
12
SUMMIT
13
MAC
14
IVY
15
SUN BELT
16
MAAC
17
CUSA
18
BIG WEST
19
CAA
20
WAC
21
PATRIOT
22
OVC
23
BIG SKY
24
NEC
25
SOUTHLAND
26
SOCON
27
AMER EAST
28
ASUN
29
BIG SOUTH
30
INDEPENDENT
31
MEAC
32
SWAC
33

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014

No comments:

Post a Comment