|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
||||||
|
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
37
|
4
|
47
|
8
|
84
|
1
|
||
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
30
|
1
|
55
|
11
|
85
|
2
|
||
|
Oklahoma
City
|
50
|
7
|
43
|
6
|
93
|
3
|
||
|
Portland
|
32
|
2
|
61
|
16
|
93
|
3
|
||
|
Houston
|
36
|
3
|
59
|
14
|
95
|
5
|
||
|
San
Antonio
|
66
|
15
|
36
|
3
|
102
|
6
|
||
|
Toronto
|
49
|
6
|
53
|
10
|
102
|
6
|
||
|
Golden
State
|
66
|
15
|
39
|
4
|
105
|
8
|
||
|
Indiana
|
73
|
21
|
32
|
1
|
105
|
8
|
||
|
Memphis
|
60
|
13
|
45
|
7
|
105
|
8
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
68
|
20
|
39
|
4
|
107
|
11
|
||
|
Chicago
|
74
|
23
|
33
|
2
|
107
|
11
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
67
|
19
|
55
|
11
|
122
|
13
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
50
|
7
|
72
|
19
|
122
|
13
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
50
|
7
|
72
|
19
|
122
|
13
|
||
|
Detroit
|
55
|
12
|
69
|
18
|
124
|
16
|
||
|
Washington
|
73
|
21
|
51
|
9
|
124
|
16
|
||
|
Denver
|
53
|
11
|
75
|
23
|
128
|
18
|
||
|
Miami
|
66
|
15
|
63
|
17
|
129
|
19
|
||
|
Dallas
|
50
|
7
|
80
|
25
|
130
|
20
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
74
|
23
|
58
|
13
|
132
|
21
|
||
|
New
Orleans
|
44
|
5
|
90
|
29
|
134
|
22
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
63
|
14
|
72
|
19
|
135
|
23
|
||
|
New
York
|
66
|
15
|
79
|
24
|
145
|
24
|
||
|
Orlando
|
85
|
29
|
60
|
15
|
145
|
24
|
||
|
Boston
|
83
|
28
|
72
|
19
|
155
|
26
|
||
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
78
|
26
|
81
|
26
|
159
|
27
|
||
|
Utah
|
77
|
25
|
88
|
27
|
165
|
28
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
78
|
26
|
93
|
30
|
171
|
29
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
107
|
30
|
88
|
27
|
195
|
30
|
||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points. Last key
item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my
projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact
based on statistical testing. Using an
equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping
efforts when properly applied.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
|
L.A. Clippers
|
117.0
|
113.0
|
|
Miami
|
116.9
|
112.9
|
|
Golden State
|
114.9
|
111.9
|
|
San Antonio
|
115.4
|
111.9
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
115.7
|
111.7
|
|
Indiana
|
114.9
|
110.9
|
|
Dallas
|
113.9
|
110.9
|
|
Toronto
|
113.5
|
110.5
|
|
Phoenix
|
113.5
|
110.5
|
|
Houston
|
114.5
|
110.5
|
|
Minnesota
|
112.8
|
110.3
|
|
Memphis
|
113.3
|
110.3
|
|
Washington
|
111.0
|
108.5
|
|
Portland
|
112.0
|
108.5
|
|
New York
|
110.5
|
108.5
|
|
Detroit
|
110.3
|
108.3
|
|
Brooklyn
|
111.3
|
108.3
|
|
Chicago
|
110.8
|
107.8
|
|
Charlotte
|
110.2
|
107.7
|
|
New Orleans
|
109.6
|
107.6
|
|
Atlanta
|
110.4
|
107.4
|
|
Denver
|
109.6
|
107.1
|
|
Sacramento
|
109.0
|
107.0
|
|
Cleveland
|
107.9
|
105.9
|
|
Boston
|
107.9
|
105.9
|
|
Orlando
|
106.7
|
104.7
|
|
Milwaukee
|
106.2
|
104.2
|
|
Utah
|
105.5
|
103.5
|
|
L.A. Lakers
|
104.8
|
102.8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
102.0
|
100.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end &
current SOS:
|
Win %
|
ATS Win %
|
Projected Wins
|
Current SOS
|
||||||||
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
RANK
|
||||
|
L.A. Clippers
|
0.696
|
5
|
0.574
|
4
|
57.57
|
4
|
0.507
|
14
|
|||
|
Miami
|
0.697
|
4
|
0.453
|
24
|
57.30
|
5
|
0.544
|
5
|
|||
|
Golden State
|
0.629
|
8
|
0.493
|
16
|
51.99
|
7
|
0.540
|
7
|
|||
|
San Antonio
|
0.761
|
1
|
0.522
|
10
|
61.11
|
1
|
0.572
|
1
|
|||
|
Oklahoma City
|
0.735
|
2
|
0.552
|
5
|
59.20
|
2
|
0.566
|
2
|
|||
|
Indiana
|
0.735
|
2
|
0.507
|
14
|
58.90
|
3
|
0.544
|
5
|
|||
|
Dallas
|
0.594
|
10
|
0.551
|
6
|
49.21
|
9
|
0.529
|
9
|
|||
|
Toronto
|
0.567
|
12
|
0.606
|
2
|
47.19
|
12
|
0.516
|
11
|
|||
|
Phoenix
|
0.574
|
11
|
0.657
|
1
|
47.22
|
11
|
0.524
|
10
|
|||
|
Houston
|
0.662
|
6
|
0.530
|
8
|
53.34
|
6
|
0.556
|
3
|
|||
|
Minnesota
|
0.507
|
16
|
0.493
|
16
|
42.64
|
16
|
0.508
|
13
|
|||
|
Memphis
|
0.597
|
9
|
0.477
|
18
|
48.71
|
10
|
0.531
|
8
|
|||
|
Washington
|
0.515
|
15
|
0.522
|
10
|
42.98
|
15
|
0.495
|
17
|
|||
|
Portland
|
0.652
|
7
|
0.536
|
7
|
51.97
|
8
|
0.549
|
4
|
|||
|
New York
|
0.412
|
20
|
0.441
|
27
|
35.45
|
20
|
0.469
|
23
|
|||
|
Detroit
|
0.373
|
23
|
0.424
|
28
|
32.40
|
22
|
0.461
|
26
|
|||
|
Brooklyn
|
0.530
|
14
|
0.530
|
8
|
43.16
|
14
|
0.505
|
15
|
|||
|
Chicago
|
0.559
|
13
|
0.500
|
15
|
44.83
|
13
|
0.511
|
12
|
|||
|
Charlotte
|
0.478
|
17
|
0.591
|
3
|
39.20
|
17
|
0.489
|
18
|
|||
|
New Orleans
|
0.403
|
21
|
0.444
|
26
|
33.89
|
21
|
0.479
|
21
|
|||
|
Atlanta
|
0.470
|
18
|
0.462
|
21
|
38.21
|
18
|
0.488
|
20
|
|||
|
Denver
|
0.456
|
19
|
0.456
|
23
|
37.25
|
19
|
0.489
|
18
|
|||
|
Sacramento
|
0.353
|
24
|
0.470
|
19
|
29.46
|
24
|
0.470
|
22
|
|||
|
Cleveland
|
0.377
|
22
|
0.464
|
20
|
30.86
|
23
|
0.462
|
25
|
|||
|
Boston
|
0.333
|
25
|
0.515
|
13
|
27.65
|
25
|
0.452
|
27
|
|||
|
Orlando
|
0.275
|
28
|
0.418
|
29
|
23.38
|
28
|
0.434
|
28
|
|||
|
Milwaukee
|
0.188
|
30
|
0.449
|
25
|
16.30
|
30
|
0.410
|
30
|
|||
|
Utah
|
0.319
|
27
|
0.462
|
21
|
25.23
|
27
|
0.468
|
24
|
|||
|
L.A. Lakers
|
0.328
|
26
|
0.515
|
12
|
25.59
|
26
|
0.503
|
16
|
|||
|
Philadelphia
|
0.221
|
29
|
0.382
|
30
|
17.91
|
29
|
0.418
|
29
|
|||
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at
projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but
also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season
(and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get). Based on these projections the playoffs would
set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that
have a chance at reaching playoffs.
Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use
where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning
% for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 61-21
#2 Oklahoma City 59-23
#3 LA Clippers 58-24
#4 Houston 53-29
#5 Golden State 52-30
#6 Portland 52-30
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Memphis 49-33
#9 Phoenix 47-35
Eastern Conference
#1 Indiana 59-23
#2 Miami 57-25
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Chicago 45-37
#5 Brooklyn 43-39
#6 Washington 43-39
#7 Charlotte 39-43
#8 Atlanta 38-44
#9 New York 35-47
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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