Monday, May 23, 2016

NFL 2015: SBPI FINAL

Here is the final NFL SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) of the 2015 season, including only regular season action – which is same as prior years.

SBPI: max grade 160: 80 on offense & 80 on defense, which can be achieved by receiving a perfect grade of “5” in each of the 16 different statistics tracked on both sides of the ball:

OFFENSE
DEFENSE
TOTAL TEAM
Blended
Wins
Rating
Rank
Rating
Rank
Rating
Rank
SOS
TOM
10
SEA
52.3
1
45.0
3
97.3
1
22
7
13
ARI
51.5
2
44.4
4
96.0
2
28
9
10
NYJ
46.1
9
47.6
2
93.7
3
32
6
15
CAR
49.7
3
43.5
7
93.2
4
29
20
11
KC
46.5
6
43.8
6
90.4
5
4
14
12
NE
46.1
10
43.0
8
89.0
6
26
7
12
CIN
48.3
5
40.2
10
88.4
7
12
11
12
DEN
38.7
24
48.6
1
87.3
8
7
(4)
9
HOU
40.0
22
44.3
5
84.3
9
24
5
10
PIT
44.9
12
38.8
13
83.7
10
10
2
8
BUF
46.3
7
35.9
17
82.2
11
19
6
8
ATL
46.3
7
35.2
21
81.5
12
31
(7)
10
GB
40.3
20
40.3
9
80.7
13
11
5
6
TB
44.8
13
35.4
19
80.2
14
30
(5)
4
SD
42.3
16
37.3
15
79.7
15
14
(4)
7
OAK
39.7
23
39.6
11
79.3
16
3
1
5
BAL
40.1
21
38.9
12
78.9
17
16
(14)
6
CHI
43.4
14
34.9
23
78.3
18
6
(4)
11
MIN
41.8
17
36.1
16
77.8
19
9
5
9
WAS
45.1
11
32.3
27
77.4
20
27
5
7
NO
49.4
4
27.9
32
77.3
21
20
2
7
DET
41.5
18
35.7
18
77.2
22
8
(6)
4
DAL
38.0
25
38.3
14
76.4
23
13
(22)
7
PHI
41.2
19
32.7
25
73.9
24
17
(5)
6
NYG
42.5
15
31.2
29
73.7
25
25
7
8
IND
35.9
29
34.8
24
70.7
26
15
(5)
7
STL
35.3
30
35.3
20
70.7
26
6
5
5
JAC
37.1
26
32.4
26
69.5
28
22
(10)
3
TEN
33.4
31
35.1
22
68.4
29
23
(14)
6
MIA
37.0
27
31.3
28
68.3
30
18
(3)
3
CLE
36.3
28
30.7
30
67.1
31
1
(9)
5
SF
33.2
32
29.7
31
62.9
32
2
(5)


·      The Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos finished the regular season ranked #8 in raw rating; however they faced the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL (only Kansas City faced a tougher schedule amongst the top half of the league according to SBPI) which would of course slide their rating much higher after making that adjustment.  In addition they were the only team in the Top 11 of SBPI to have a negative turnover margin; however, in the playoffs they were a +4 in that category (+1 in the AFC Divisional vs. Pittsburgh, +1 in the AFC Championship vs. New England & +2 in the Super Bowl vs. Carolina) – which was a critical factor in their title run.  Although they struggled mightily on offense for most of the season their defense checked in at #1, and was the biggest factor in their 3rd Super Bowl championship.

·      NFC Champion Carolina was ranked #4 versus a very weak schedule; they were also buoyed by a league best +20 in turnover margin – which is often a red-flag is they do not produce similar results in the playoffs.  In the NFC Divisional vs. Seattle they were a +2 and won at home by a TD; in the NFC Championship they were a +6 and hammered the Cardinals, also on their home field.  However, in the Super Bowl they turned the ball over 4 times including a strip sack that was recovered in the end zone for a Broncos TD, and wound up losing by 14 points on a neutral field.  Despite very much looking the part the Panthers 15-1 mark was largely driven by a favorable schedule & turnover margin – two key factors to always keep an eye on when handicapping the NFL Playoffs.

·      The NY Jets finished the season at #3 in the SBPI yet failed to earn a playoff berth; their 10-6 record was tied with Pittsburgh however the Steelers had the tiebreakers fall their way, leaving the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets out of the dance.

·      In the NFC the highest rated team to miss the playoffs believe it or not was the Atlanta Falcons, who checked in at #12 in the SBPI but posted just an 8-8 record, 2 games behind the pair of Wild Card teams from their conference.

·      By referencing the SBPI rankings, then adjusting for SOS & TOM followed by comparing that to actual wins you can identify teams to be bullish or bearish on heading into the 2016 campaign.  For example the Texans, Bills and aforementioned Falcons could surprise people next year in a good way while the Vikings, Redskins and Dolphins could be on alert for not performing as well as their 2015 record indicated (of course you have to keep in mind roster moves made during the offseason).

In a future article I will post a new analysis that breaks down each team’s 2015 record in numerous ways – for example I will show standings using my SBPI game by game (this analysis was posted in my NFL SBPI midseason report), show it based on Pythagorean theory, and perhaps one or two additional angles.  The more ways you breakdown statistics and records the more accurate they can be as future indicators of success or failure. 

Next up let’s examine the divisional ratings (as a reminder these are simply a sum of each teams SBPI ranking):

Rating
NFL
AW
44
1
AE
50
2
NS
51
3
NW
61
4
AN
65
5
NN
72
6
NE
92
7
AS
92
7

The AFC West was the top division according to SBPI last year, which is very interesting since those teams played very tough schedules.  Here is a breakdown:

OFFENSE
DEFENSE
TOTAL TEAM
Blended
Wins
Rating
Rank
Rating
Rank
Rating
Rank
SOS
TOM
11
KC
46.5
6
43.8
6
90.4
5
4
14
12
DEN
38.7
24
48.6
1
87.3
8
7
(4)
4
SD
42.3
16
37.3
15
79.7
15
14
(4)
7
OAK
39.7
23
39.6
11
79.3
16
3
1

All four teams ranked inside the top half of the NFL on a non-SOS adjusted basis; if you then reference their blended SOS’s it shows three of the four teams faced a Top 7 schedule, with San Diego rounding out the weakest schedule in the division – which was the 14th toughest in the NFL!  Each team also ranked in the Top half of the league on defense & only one team received a noteworthy boost from TOM.  Although San Diego appears to be a team heading down the other three teams are headed up and should make this division tough next year & in the near future.

The AFC South, a division most would say is the worst in football, checked in tied for worst with the NFC East.  The AFC South was “helped” by the Texans in the 9th slot; the NFC East’s top team according to SBPI was the Redskins who ranked 20th!

Opponents, home/away splits and schedules play a critical role in success for teams each season – becoming familiar with these variables heading into a new season is paramount to molding your thoughts of each team.

Last analysis is my power rankings.  My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance (SBPI) while the second measures team performance vs. the spread.  These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.  For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:

Overall
SEA
1
ARI
2
CAR
3
NE
3
DEN
5
KC
5
CIN
7
NYJ
8
PIT
9
GB
10
HOU
11
SD
12
DET
13
BUF
14
MIN
14
WAS
14
ATL
17
OAK
17
IND
19
NYG
19
CHI
21
STL
22
PHI
23
BAL
24
DAL
25
NO
26
JAC
27
TB
28
MIA
29
TEN
30
CLE
31
SF
32


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