Wednesday, October 30, 2013

NFL 2013: Week 8 Review



NFL 2013: Week Eight Review
After a one week hiatus the performance ratings are back, and we see many familiar faces at the top, and bottom from the last version.  Denver continues to lead, Carolina has jumped into the 2nd spot, their highest rating of all time, while relative newcomers Kansas City and Cincinnati hold down spots in the top 7.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80). 


OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL TEAM

Blended


Wins

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

SOS

TOM
7
DEN
56.7
1

42.4
10

99.1
1

29

(1)
4
CAR
48.9
4

47.1
4

96.1
2

31

6
5
GB
54.3
2

41.6
14

95.9
3

13

(2)
6
NO
48.3
7

44.4
8

92.6
4

27

8
7
SEA
43.3
13

49.4
2

92.6
4

25

9
8
KC
40.9
17

50.9
1

91.8
6

32

12
6
CIN
43.4
12

45.3
7

88.7
7

18

(1)
5
DET
48.9
5

39.0
20

87.9
8

26

1
2
HOU
41.8
15

46.0
5

87.8
9

5

(11)
6
SF
45.3
9

41.8
12

87.1
10

23

4
5
IND
46.3
8

40.6
18

86.9
11

7

7
4
SD
50.6
3

34.2
27

84.8
12

22

(6)
4
NYJ
33.2
27

47.8
3

80.9
13

30

(12)
3
PHI
43.6
11

35.8
26

79.4
14

28

(1)
3
BAL
32.7
28

45.6
6

78.4
15

12

(2)
4
CHI
48.4
6

29.6
30

78.1
16

17

7
2
WAS
44.1
10

33.7
28

77.9
17

2

(3)
4
DAL
41.4
16

35.9
24

77.3
18

14

9
6
NE
34.5
23

42.6
9

77.1
19

24

5
3
OAK
34.9
21

40.9
15

75.8
20

6

0
2
PIT
33.9
26

41.9
11

75.7
21

20

(9)
2
ATL
42.0
14

33.6
29

75.6
22

21

(3)
4
ARI
34.3
24

40.7
17

75.0
23

11

1
3
MIA
34.0
25

40.9
16

74.9
24

16

(3)
3
BUF
35.1
20

39.2
19

74.3
25

11

2
3
TEN
36.1
18

38.1
23

74.2
26

1

6
3
CLE
31.5
29

41.8
12

73.3
27

15

(2)
3
STL
35.8
19

35.9
25

71.6
28

20

1
2
NYG
29.3
30

38.2
22

67.5
29

8

(12)
0
TB
28.6
31

38.4
21

66.9
30

4

(1)
1
MIN
34.7
22

27.6
31

62.3
31

11

(2)
0
JAC
24.4
32

25.1
32

49.5
32

3

(7)

An interesting pair of stats to track this season versus the performance ratings are SOS & TOM.  What makes those two stats add value to your week to week analysis is you can adjust these performance ratings a touch based on either/both of those metrics.  For example, when analyzing SOS we see that GB has clearly faced the toughest competition compared to the Top 8 teams in the performance ratings, making their grade of 95.9 that much more impressive.  You can likely make a case that although the Panthers check in at #2 in the performance ratings the Packers have performed better to date since they are only trailing Carolina by 0.2 in the ratings but have faced a schedule slotted 18 spots higher.  We can also go down to the 9th rated team Houston – and we see their SOS is very high and their TOM is 3rd worst in the NFL.  What does that mean?  With the QB change it’s hard to say for sure, but I still consider Houston a good team, and once their schedule eases up some, and if they can hang onto the ball going forward, their performance should keep them in games, and thus we should find a lot of value in their lines moving forward.  Examining the TOM again we see of the Top 6 teams in the ratings only Denver and Green Bay sport a negative margin – again meaning there should be opportunity for those teams to improve and be of value against the # if they can hang onto the football, and take it away from their opponents.  Denver also brings up a unique angle in that they lead the NFL in fumbles and fumbles lost – typically that is an easier fix versus a QB that is throwing INTs.  Sliding a bit further down the ratings the Bears and Cowboys have both performed better record wise than their true in game performance would indicate – a lot of which is driven by strong TOM figures.  If and when those figures start regressing towards 0, which will typically happen but not always in season, they could be teams to keep a “fading” eye on – in particular Dallas since they have gone 7-1 ATS so far, but only 4-4 SU.  Lastly, at the bottom of the ratings, as mentioned in my last edition, Jacksonville is playing at an all-time low level – easily the worst team since I started these ratings.  Setting them aside, and attempting to identify the other bad teams in the league, Tampa Bay and Minnesota stand out based on not only their poor rating, but also because they have not suffered from a terrible TOM, while not playing the most difficult of schedules.  Examining all this data and using each indicator to come up with your own valuations of teams in the league should help your handicapping process each week.
For this season I am adding a new analysis based on the performance ratings which I will call red flag/green light for the remainder of the season.  Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings and give teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas and are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance:
  • Red Flag: ARI, CHI, NE, DAL
  • Green Light: DEN, CAR, GB, DET
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:

Rating
NFL
AW
39
1
NS
58
3
NN
58
3
NW
65
4
AN
70
5
AS
78
7
NE
78
7
AE
81
8

The AFC West remains the top division which should come as no surprise since KC remains undefeated and Denver continues to lead the performance ratings.  It also helps that Oakland, the division’s worst team, checks in at an improving 20th.  The NFC owns the next 3 spots in the divisional rankings with the NFC East being the lone outlier – but they have risen above the AFC East who now has the worst division in football according to my performance ratings.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk8.  As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.  For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
AFC East
Wins
Loss

NFC East
Wins
Loss
NE
9.91
6.09

DAL
7.73
8.27
NYJ
7.87
8.14

WAS
6.92
9.08
MIA
7.46
8.54

PHI
6.74
9.26
BUF
7.18
8.82

NYG
5.12
10.88







AFC North



NFC North


CIN
10.70
5.30

GB
11.49
4.51
BAL
7.40
8.60

DET
9.74
6.26
CLE
6.72
9.28

CHI
8.10
7.90
PIT
6.23
9.77

MIN
3.79
12.21







AFC South



NFC South


IND
10.18
5.82

NO
10.98
5.02
HOU
7.89
8.11

CAR
9.26
6.74
TEN
7.48
8.52

ATL
5.51
10.49
JAC
1.12
14.88

TB
3.25
12.75







AFC West



NFC West


DEN
12.86
3.14

SEA
12.74
3.26
KC
11.78
4.22

SF
11.20
4.80
SD
7.78
8.22

ARI
7.91
8.09
OAK
7.03
8.98

STL
5.95
10.05







Playoffs



Playoffs


#6 HOU @ #3 IND


#6 DET @ #3 NO

#5 KC @ #4 NE


#5 SF @ #4 DAL








#1 DEN



#1 SEA


#2 CIN



#2 GB



Here is a matrix that shows playoff seeding projections after each week’s action:
NFC

AFC

Wk1
Wk2
Wk3
Wk4
Wk5
Wk6
Wk7
Wk8


Wk1
Wk2
Wk3
Wk4
Wk5
Wk6
Wk7
Wk8
ARI









BAL








ATL









BUF








CAR









CIN
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
CHI
6
6
2
6





CLE








DAL


4
4
4
4
4
4

DEN
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
DET



3
3
3
6
6

HOU
2
2
2
2
6


6
GB
2
2
5

6
6
2
2

IND
6



2
3
2
3
MIN









JAC








NO
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3

KC

6
5
5
5
5
5
5
NYG









MIA
5
5
6
6

6


PHI
4
4







NE
3
3
3
3
3
2
4
4
SEA
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

NYJ






6

SF
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5

OAK








STL









PIT








TB









SD

6






WAS









TEN









Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings.  My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread.  These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.  For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:
1
DEN
2
SEA
3
SF
4
GB
5
NO
6
CAR
7
HOU
8
CIN
9
KC
9
IND
11
DET
12
NE
13
WAS
14
DAL
15
SD
16
MIA
16
ARI
18
CHI
19
BAL
20
PIT
20
BUF
22
TEN
23
OAK
24
NYJ
24
ATL
26
PHI
27
STL
28
CLE
29
NYG
30
TB
31
MIN
32
JAC


Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013