Here is second initial installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2015-2016 season. As a reminder this model first uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas followed by filtering that data into a regression formula that properly weights the impact of each statistic before being finalized by an SOS adjustment. Here is where each team stands through Wednesday January 20th:
These are the actual power ratings I would use when setting lines on a daily basis.
The San Antonio Spurs maintain the top spot in the ratings but the East continues to strengthen it’s depth as seen by the playoff seedings & each team’s corresponding rating.
The “Projected Record” column is calculated by:
1. Taking a teams current record
2. Adding wins over remainder of the season based on their regression analysis of strength
For example, walking through the San Antonio Spurs calculation:
They are currently 36-6 & are projected to play .934 ball for the remainder of the season. Taking that .934 times their 40 remaining games yields 37.4 more wins; add the 36 & 37.4 and you get 73.4 wins, which is shown in the projected wins column.
Now remember there are obviously additional variables that could be in play when projecting a team’s final record such as sitting players, home/road splits – but this formula is at worst a good proxy for projecting playoff seeds.
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