NBA 2016-2016: SportsBoss Power Index [SBPI] thru January 4th

Here is our initial installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2015-2016 season.  As a reminder this model first uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas followed by filtering that data into a regression formula that properly weights the impact of each statistic before being finalized by an SOS adjustment.  Here is where each team stands through Monday January 4^th:

	HOME	ROAD
Team	RATING	RATING
San Antonio	107.0	102.5
Golden State	105.3	100.8
OklahomaCity	99.1	95.6
Cleveland	99.5	95.0
Boston	97.5	95.0
L.A. Clippers	97.5	94.5
Indiana	97.1	93.6
Detroit	96.9	93.4
Miami	95.9	92.9
Atlanta	95.3	92.3
Toronto	95.3	92.3
Charlotte	94.9	91.9
Orlando	94.5	91.5
Dallas	93.9	90.9
Memphis	93.7	90.7
Utah	92.6	90.1
Chicago	92.8	89.3
Washington	90.8	88.8
Sacramento	90.3	87.8
Portland	90.0	87.5
Houston	89.7	87.2
Minnesota	88.1	86.1
Denver	88.1	86.1
Phoenix	88.1	86.1
Milwaukee	88.5	86.0
New York	88.3	85.8
Brooklyn	87.6	85.6
New Orleans	87.4	84.9
L.A. Lakers	82.0	80.0
Philadelphia	81.2	79.2

These are the actual power ratings I would use when setting lines on a daily basis.  For example if Philadelphia played at San Antonio tonight my line on that game would be San Antonio -27.8; if the Jazz played at the Clippers my line would be LA Clippers -7.4.

Let’s take a closer look at a few teams that stand out based on their performance to date:

San Antonio Spurs & Golden State Warriors: last season the Warriors neutral floor power rating at the end of the regular season of 100.7 was the best ever captured by the SBPI model, which dates back 10+ years; so what do we do for an encore?  TWO teams, both the Spurs & Warriors, are checking in ABOVE that mark!  As if that doesn’t explain just how strong they are already – here is another tidbit: both teams would be favored over any other team in the NBA even on the road – for example, the Spurs would be laying 3.5 at OKC (the best team outside SA & GS) while the Warriors would be laying 1.5/2.  These teams have not played yet this year – and many were upset we didn’t get a chance to see them play in last season’s playoffs – but rest assured, they are likely to meet in the Western Conference Finals this year in what could be an all time epic series if both head into the matchup healthy.

Boston Celtics: check in at #5 to date driven mostly by strong defense & taking care of the ball offensively.  Boston only ranks 21^st in offensive EFG% so taking care of the ball (thus maximizing the # of shots they take) along with playing strong defense has to be their calling card if they are to maintain their success and stay in the mix for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Houston Rockets: perhaps the most disappointing team in the NBA this season checks in at 21^st in the ratings – showing their record of 17-19 is not a mirage; they are playing poorly across the board but in particular on the defensive end of the floor.  The only area they rank above average to date is free throw rate – but a lot of that is driven by teams fouling Dwight Howard purposely which reduces their efficiency.  It’s ironic a team like Houston with Darryl Morey, Mr. Analytics at GM, is struggling this mightily in key areas.

Lastly let’s take a look at the projected record of each team by taking their current record and adding the projected wins they would accumulate for remainder of season based on their statistical performance:

	Projected Record		Playoff Seeds
Team	Wins	Losses	West	East
Golden State	73	9	W1
San Antonio	72	10	W2
Cleveland	56	26		E1
Oklahoma City	56	26	W3
L.A. Clippers	53	29	W4
Boston	51	31		E2
Miami	50	32		E3
Indiana	49	33		E4
Atlanta	48	34		E5
Detroit	48	34		E6
Toronto	47	35		E7
Orlando	45	37		E8
Dallas	44	38	W5
Charlotte	44	38
Chicago	44	38
Memphis	43	39	W6
Utah	40	42	W7
Washington	38	44
Houston	36	46	W8
Sacramento	34	48
Portland	34	48
New York	33	49
Milwaukee	31	51
Minnesota	29	53
Denver	29	53
Phoenix	29	53
New Orleans	27	55
Brooklyn	27	55
L.A. Lakers	16	66
Philadelphia	10	72

We can see the East seems to be making a run at best conference in the NBA for the first time in about a decade although the true cream of the NBA crop still resides out West.  Currently in my projections seeds 5 to 8 in the West would all have a worse record than each team in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket – that is certainly something to keep an eye on as the winter progresses.

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