Thursday, May 25, 2017

NCAAF 2017: SEC EAST PREVIEW

It’s never too early to take a look at the upcoming college football season!  With that in mind we are starting our early season conference previews looking at the SEC East.

The SEC East division has been one of the weaker Power 5 conference divisions for a couple years; in 2016 it ranked 7th in division strength according to SBPI, only besting the Big 10 West by 0.07 SBPI ratings points in Power 5 division strength – not good.  Will this be the year schools like Florida, Georgia & Tennessee return to national relevance?  Not likely despite what some early season polls show.  They are still playing catch-up to Alabama, LSU and likely Auburn – three West division teams – in the SEC.
2017
2016 OFF
2017
2016 DEF
2017
2016
SCHOOL
OFF RS
RATING
RANK
DEF RS
RATING
RANK
TOT RS
RATING
RANK
FLORIDA
9
64.7
93
5
141.5
7
14
206.2
22
GEORGIA
7
91.7
59
10
109.8
21
17
201.5
26
TENNESSEE
7
114.0
25
7
76.0
52
14
190.0
32
MISSOURI
10
116.5
20
5
67.1
69
15
183.6
42
KENTUCKY
8
91.8
58
9
56.6
86
17
148.4
72
SOUTH CAROLINA
10
61.0
99
6
67.4
68
16
128.5
90
VANDERBILT
9
59.2
101
7
64.7
72
16
124.0
94

Here is a summary in bullet form of some of the division wide trends that stand out:

·      Six of the seven teams return their starting QB – the only team that doesn’t?  Tennessee, who loses Josh Dobbs – which is unfortunate for them as although frustrating at times he was likely their best offensive player.
·      All seven teams return more than the average 13.4 returning starters.
·      The only potentially “elite” unit in the entire division last year was the Florida defense – and that unit only returns 5 starters.
·      Just one team ranked in the SBPI Top 25 – Florida – who will likely need more in 2017 from an anemic offense to raise their standing.  Gator fans are hoping blue chip Sophomore QB Luke Del Rio can stay on the field this year and show his playmaking ability.
·      The SEC Championship has not been won by an East division team since 2008

Way too early projected order of finish (school, odds to win national championship, odds to win SEC):

1.     Georgia (40/1, 7/1): the Bulldogs return the most starters in the division, most starters in the conference and are tied for 3rd most in the country (only behind Syracuse’s 20 and Florida Atlantic’s 19).  They are led by blue chip 2nd year QB Jacob Eason who has all the tools and will look to leverage his experience as a freshman to put the Dawgs in the mix for an SEC Championship.  They play just three conference road games (Tennessee, Vanderbilt & Auburn) and their other crossover game is hosting Mississippi State.  In Kirby Smart’s second season UGA is clearly the team to beat in the East.
2.     Florida (55/1, 10/1): like Georgia the Gators have just three true road games (Kentucky, Missouri & South Carolina), getting both crossover games vs. LSU & Texas A&M in The Swamp (not an easy duo even at home).  UF will take a step back defensively after losing so much talent although they won’t fall off a cliff as the cupboard is far from bare; the offense on the other hand really struggled last year & is not close to being a consistent threat.  If they beat UGA in Jacksonville they will have a shot; a loss there will make it a real uphill battle with their schedule.
3.     Kentucky (500/1, 80/1): the Cats finished last year 4-4 in conference – and were “in the mix” for a hot October second.  However a closer examination of their season shows they beat the teams closer to their talent level while losing to all the bigger name, better players type programs.  This year with 17 starters back they could be primed to challenge and play some meaningful November football.  Their road schedule is certainly manageable facing South Carolina early in the season, Miss State in middle and late back-to-back roadies against Vandy & UGA (they will certainly have revenge on their minds when they visit Athens).  Their home crossover is versus Ole Miss – not easy but it’s not Alabama or LSU, or even Auburn.  It would not shock me if that SEC finale in Athens has something on the line for both teams.
4.     South Carolina (300/1, 80/1): the Cocks have not been relevant since 2013 & 2017 will not bring national relevance – but could SC be a sneaky pick to win the division?  They return 16 starters in Head Coach Will Muschamp’s 2nd season in Columbia & 2016 was not a complete disaster as they were only clearly out-classed in one game – at Clemson – no shame there.  This year they need more offense against better teams – and with 10 starters returning that is likely to occur.  The schedule features road games at Mizzou, TAMU, Tennessee & Georgia – which is not brutal.  Their home crossover is against Arkansas – again kind of of manageable.  Although they have a long way to go I think they can sneak up on some people this year and finish in the top middle of the division – but making jump to the champion is unlikely.
5.     Missouri (500/1, 160/1): the Tigers were better statistically last season than their record indicated, which should help some in 2017.  Defense was a major issue as they allowed 28+ in every SEC game besides the home win over Vanderbilt – how much will that unit improve in 2017?  My early guess is their offense will be solid & cover-up for an average defense – but a schedule that features four conference road games (UK, UGA, Vandy & Arkansas) & a home crossover with Auburn will keep them towards the bottom of the division.
6.     Tennessee (66/1, 14/1): Butch Jones is clearly on the hot seat as the Vols want to get back into the national title conversation – and they haven’t really been in their own division’s race under his leadership come mid November, losing at least three conference games in each of his four seasons, melting down to a 4-4 mark in 2016.  This year not only must they overcome the loss of their QB (which as a reminder is the only QB not returning in this division) they face a tough schedule in conference with four road games (Florida, Alabama, Kentucky & Mizzou) along with a late season crossover hosting LSU.  All these factors make it too tough for the Volunteers to contend in 2017. 
7.     Vanderbilt (600/1, 160/1): the Commodores finished a game ahead of Missouri to avoid the basement last year, but they finished worst in the division according to SBPI and are likely headed there this season.  Vandy faces a very tough schedule this year with road contests at Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee along with a home crossover game vs. Alabama – brutal.  I see the ‘Dores as the clear bottom dwellers this year in the conference.


To summarize, as I sit in my office in late May, I see the SEC East as still one of the worst divisions in the Power 5 conferences.  The division, at best, probably has the 4th best team in the conference making it once again unlikely they break the EIGHT game losing streak in the SEC Championship Game – although in a one game “winner take all” scenario nothing can be removed as a possibility.  I see three tiers:

Contenders: Georgia & Florida
Middle of Pack: Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri & Tennessee
Bottom: Vanderbilt

Georgia or Florida is likely to win the division but will not be of national relevance; any of the four middle pack teams, who are all very close to each other in my mind at this point in time, could challenge the contenders as neither UGA nor UF is a juggernaut but it’s likely they all finish between 3rd and 6th; Vanderbilt is very likely to finish last.

Be back soon with a preview of the SEC West!


Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss



COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2017
Posted by The SportsBoss at 5:46 PM 0 comments

Friday, May 19, 2017

NCAA FOOTBALL 2017: METRICS LOOKAHEAD PART I

Here is Part I of a multiple entry blog looking at various metrics from last year & how they can assist with developing initial thoughts and projections for the 2017 season.

Here is a matrix that shows 2016 record, 2016 final SBPI rating & ranking along with OFF/DEF returning starters for 2017 (OFF numbers highlighted green represents QB returning) along with turnover margin (TOM) in total.  If you want to see offense & defense raw unit rankings please reference entry from April 11th using toolbar on right side of the page.  These are the first set of variables we will use to look towards the 2017 season.

RECORD
SOS ADJ #'s
2017 RS
WINS
LOSS
Team
RATING
RANK
OFF
DEF
TOT
TOM
14
1
Alabama
307.4
1
6
5
11
10
11
2
Ohio State
296.3
2
8
7
15
15
14
1
Clemson
296.1
3
5
7
12
(1)
12
2
Washington
275.1
4
7
6
13
18
10
3
Florida State
266.8
5
7
9
16
3
10
3
Michigan
261.2
6
4
1
5
7
8
4
LSU
255.6
7
6
5
11
0
11
3
Wisconsin
254.0
8
8
7
15
12
10
4
Virginia Tech
244.8
9
5
7
12
(1)
10
4
Colorado

241.7
10

9
3
12

6
10
3
USC
241.4
11
5
7
12
0
9
4
Louisville
237.9
12
5
7
12
(7)
8
5
Auburn
230.1
13
8
7
15
3
9
4
Miami (Florida)
219.1
14
7
8
15
9
7
6
North Carolina State
216.2
15
9
8
17
2
11
2
Oklahoma
215.5
16
9
7
16
0
8
5
Pittsburgh
212.7
17
6
4
10
1
10
3
Appalachian State
211.9
18
7
6
13
8
11
3
Penn State
211.4
19
9
7
16
1
10
4
Temple
209.6
20
6
4
10
6
13
1
Western Michigan
207.0
21
5
8
13
18
9
4
Florida
206.2
22
9
5
14
2
11
3
San Diego State
203.8
23
5
6
11
14
10
3
West Virginia
203.3
24
5
3
8
4
8
5
North Carolina

201.7
25

5
7
12

(2)
8
5
Georgia
201.5
26
7
10
17
8
9
4
Houston
200.9
27
8
7
15
(7)
9
4
Utah
197.9
28
5
6
11
6
11
3
Western Kentucky
195.0
29
4
6
10
2
10
3
Stanford
194.2
30
8
8
16
2
9
4
Nebraska
190.1
31
4
6
10
5
9
4
Tennessee
190.0
32
7
7
14
(2)
7
6
Baylor
189.4
33
7
7
14
(5)
8
5
Washington State
189.4
34
7
9
16
6
10
3
Troy
188.4
35
8
7
15
10
9
4
BYU
187.5
36
6
6
12
12
10
3
Tulsa
187.0
37
7
6
13
0
9
4
Kansas State
186.4
38
8
6
14
13
7
6
Arkansas
186.3
39
7
6
13
(4)
10
3
Oklahoma State
185.1
40
7
5
12
11
8
5
Texas A&M
184.1
41
5
7
12
3
4
8
Missouri
183.6
42
10
5
15
(3)
9
4
Toledo
179.3
43
5
7
12
(4)
10
3
Boise State
177.1
44
5
4
9
(9)
8
5
Iowa
176.8
45
7
8
15
6
4
8
Notre Dame
175.9
46
8
7
15
(4)
10
3
Air Force
175.4
47
6
1
7
6
11
2
South Florida
174.3
48
7
9
16
9
7
6
Colorado State
173.8
49
6
9
15
(1)
8
5
Army
172.9
50
9
7
16
(3)
6
7
Indiana
171.6
51
6
9
15
(6)
9
4
Minnesota
171.3
52
8
6
14
8
9
4
Georgia Tech
171.1
53
8
8
16
4
7
6
Northwestern
170.7
54
8
8
16
9
6
7
TCU
167.8
55
10
7
17
(4)
4
8
UCLA
167.1
56
9
6
15
(2)
5
7
Texas
166.8
57
7
10
17
(3)
7
6
Southern Mississippi
166.1
58
6
6
12
(17)
3
9
Michigan State
163.5
59
4
5
9
(5)
5
7
Mississippi
162.4
60
5
6
11
(3)
8
5
Memphis
161.4
61
9
6
15
8
7
6
Boston College
159.7
62
8
7
15
7
8
6
Wyoming
159.5
63
6
8
14
3
10
3
Old Dominion
159.4
64
8
6
14
13
8
5
Arkansas State
158.0
65
5
5
10
5
4
8
Oregon
156.7
66
8
9
17
(3)
4
8
Duke
155.9
67
7
7
14
(4)
6
7
Miami (Ohio)
155.2
68
8
8
16
1
9
5
Louisiana Tech
152.8
69
5
6
11
1
6
7
Mississippi State
152.0
70
7
6
13
7
8
6
Ohio
148.6
71
7
6
13
1
7
6
Kentucky
148.4
72
8
9
17
(7)
5
7
California
146.1
73
6
8
14
3
4
8
Tulane
143.9
74
8
8
16
9
7
6
Wake Forest
143.9
75
9
6
15
8
6
7
UCF
143.4
76
9
4
13
1
8
5
Middle Tennessee
142.2
77
6
6
12
(2)
5
7
Texas Tech
140.9
78
8
6
14
(4)
5
7
Georgia Southern
139.4
79
5
5
10
1
6
7
UTSA
139.3
80
7
7
14
3
5
7
Northern Illinois
138.7
81
5
7
12
(1)
5
7
SMU
138.7
82
9
5
14
2
9
4
New Mexico
138.4
83
7
3
10
(1)
4
8
Oregon State
137.8
84
7
8
15
1
3
9
Iowa State
136.8
85
6
6
12
(3)
7
6
Eastern Michigan
134.3
86
8
6
14
1
6
7
Maryland
134.0
87
7
7
14
(7)
9
5
Navy
133.4
88
5
8
13
2
3
9
East Carolina
132.5
89
5
6
11
(16)
6
7
South Carolina
128.5
90
10
6
16
7
4
8
Syracuse
128.0
91
9
11
20
(1)
6
7
Louisiana-Lafayette
127.1
92
6
7
13
1
6
7
South Alabama
124.4
93
4
6
10
(2)
6
7
Vanderbilt
124.0
94
9
7
16
4
3
9
Utah State
123.3
95
5
4
9
(5)
5
7
Nevada
123.1
96
5
9
14
4
4
8
Ball State
120.7
97
8
4
12
(10)
4
8
UNLV
120.4
98
9
4
13
2
9
4
Idaho
120.1
99
5
5
10
11
6
7
Central Michigan
119.7
100
8
6
14
(6)
3
9
Illinois
119.1
101
5
6
11
(2)
4
8
San Jose State
117.9
102
7
8
15
(1)
3
9
Georgia State
117.0
103
8
6
14
(5)
4
8
Cincinnati
112.1
104
5
5
10
1
5
7
Arizona State
111.2
105
7
8
15
(4)
3
9
Kent State
109.7
106
7
6
13
11
4
8
UTEP
102.2
107
5
6
11
(5)
3
9
Arizona
100.0
108
7
7
14
(7)
7
7
Hawai'i
99.5
109
8
6
14
(8)
2
10
Virginia
98.9
110
6
8
14
(9)
4
8
Charlotte
98.5
111
6
6
12
8
3
9
Purdue
98.2
112
5
8
13
(17)
3
9
Marshall
98.0
113
8
7
15
4
3
9
New Mexico State
96.5
114
6
9
15
1
5
8
North Texas
94.4
115
6
5
11
1
2
10
Kansas
94.1
116
8
4
12
(14)
5
7
Akron
92.9
117
9
6
15
(8)
3
9
Rice

90.0
118

8
8
16

(7)
2
10
Rutgers
89.5
119
5
8
13
(5)
2
10
Massachusetts
87.6
120
6
8
14
(10)
4
8
Louisiana-Monroe
86.8
121
7
9
16
(11)
4
8
Florida International
86.2
122
7
8
15
(9)
4
8
Bowling Green
85.6
123
6
7
13
(16)
2
10
Buffalo
85.4
124
6
9
15
(6)
3
9
Connecticut
84.9
125
7
7
14
(8)
3
9
Florida Atlantic
78.9
126
9
9
18
(5)
1
11
Fresno State
72.2
127
10
6
16
(9)
2
10
Texas State
38.6
128
7
7
14
(14)


Here is a small grid showing average returning starters by group heading into 2016 season along with heading into the 2017 season:

OFF
DEF
TOT
2017
6.84
6.59
13.43
2017 QB's
88
2016
6.85
6.53
13.38
2016 QB's
87

So we can see not much change in any of these figures at all YOY, which, for the most part, is expected.

How can we use each of these metrics to get a head start on our 2017 opinions for each team?  By examining the relationships between (keep in mind this write-up looks at each of these metrics in a silo):

·      2016 record & 2016 SBPI rating: the rating column (for example Alabama at 307.4) is a very strong predictor of team record, with the two showing a 2016 correlation of 83% across the entire 128 teams competing in FBS (in prior seasons that correlation is typically closer to 90%).  Using just this relationship the teams we want to target to be bullish on are those who have a high SBPI rating and single digit wins (such as LSU, Louisville, Auburn, Miami, NC State, Pittsburgh, Florida & North Carolina amongst Top 25 teams) – the reason is those teams played good football last year but likely caught a few tough breaks late in games, or played a very tough schedule (either opponents which is represented naturally in the SBPI rating or their home vs. away splits) that led to fewer wins than expected.  Teams we want to be bearish on are those who fall further down the SBPI ratings but won more games than expected (such as Hawaii, Idaho, Navy, New Mexico, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech & Old Dominion) – these teams successful record vs. true statistical performance was driven by the opposite effect mentioned above; probably many late game good breaks & easier schedule as measured by either opponents or H/A split.
·      2016 SBPI rating & 2017 RS: the higher the number of returning starters the more likely a team is, at a minimum, to replicate last year’s performance or increase their SBPI rating which in turn would lead to a greater chance of winning more games.  If we focus on the average RS figure above of 13.43 teams with more returning players than that number should be as successful as they were last year, especially teams that return their QB.  However keep in mind there are always exclusions to any broad application of any statistics – such as bigger name teams that consistently recruit well (Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Florida State to name a few) will have a much easier time turning over new starters vs. middle to low pack Power 5 conference teams.  In the Group of 5 returning starters is typically a very solid place to start when projecting future success.
·      2016 record vs. 2016 TOM: as you can see from the figures above teams that perform well in TOM are typically very successful with their record while teams who struggle there do not usually post solid records.  In addition, although there are outliers to any high level application of statistical theories, teams will tend to aggregate towards the mean the more time that passes.  Examining this relationship on last year’s data shows the 4 CFB Playoff teams ranked #1-4 in my SBPI; however, we can see Clemson was a (1) in TOM while the other three teams were double digit favorable in this metric.  If we look closer at the worst teams from last year we can also see this metric as very predictive as the bottom 13 teams were all negative in TOM with an AVERAGE of (9.4) – just shy of (1) per game.  Those teams not only played poorly but also took terrible care of the football, or did not force enough turnovers, which is obviously the recipe for bad records.  There are many subset variables you can use to project turnovers committed and forced which will naturally drive the TOM figure.


That was a high level look at a few metrics I will use to set initial baselines on each team heading into the 2017 season.

In the coming weeks I will be using these metrics & posting conference breakdowns where I share my initial projections for each team.  In those entries there will be additional details on each team such as offense & defense figures from 2016 and how returning starters could potentially impact those.  Stay tuned – it should be great information – and who doesn’t enjoy reading college football analysis on the summer!

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss



COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2017
Posted by The SportsBoss at 6:57 AM 0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)