Tuesday, December 31, 2013

NFL 2013: FINAL Regular Season Performance Ratings


 


OFFENSE
DEFENSE
TOTAL TEAM
Blended

Wins
Rating Rank
Rating Rank
Rating Rank
SOS
TOM
13 DEN 55.1 1
40.8 14
95.9 1
30
0
13 SEA 45.1 7
49.9 1
95.1 2
28
20
11 NO 47.6 5
44.4 6
92.0 3
22
0
11 CIN 44.0 10
47.9 2
91.9 4
21
1
12 CAR 44.9 8
45.7 3
90.6 5
29
11
7 DET 44.3 9
43.3 10
87.6 6
32
(12)
12 SF 41.9 15
44.7 5
86.6 7
13
12
9 SD 51.3 2
34.3 26
85.7 8
21
(4)
10 PHI 48.9 4
36.2 23
85.1 9
31
12
10 ARI 40.1 19
44.9 4
85.0 10
6
0
11 KC 43.6 11
41.1 12
84.7 11
26
18
12 NE 43.3 12
38.3 19
81.6 12
18
7
8 PIT 40.4 18
41.1 12
81.4 13
27
(4)
6 BUF 36.8 23
43.9 8
80.8 14
23
3
8 GB 47.3 6
33.2 27
80.6 15
24
(3)
11 IND 42.8 13
37.5 22
80.3 16
17
13
8 CHI 49.8 3
30.4 30
80.2 17
19
5
3 WAS 41.7 16
38.3 20
79.9 18
16
(9)
7 TEN 40.7 17
38.7 18
79.4 19
14
0
8 NYJ 34.2 27
43.8 9
78.0 20
25
(14)
2 HOU 35.5 24
41.5 11
77.0 21
10
(20)
7 STL 38.1 22
37.7 21
75.8 22
4
7
8 BAL 30.0 31
44.2 7
74.1 23
11
(5)
4 CLE 34.3 26
39.3 16
73.6 24
12
(8)
8 DAL 42.8 14
30.4 30
73.2 25
15
8
8 MIA 34.0 28
39.1 17
73.1 26
8
(2)
5 MIN 39.9 20
31.5 28
71.3 27
5
(12)
7 NYG 30.5 30
40.7 15
71.2 28
4
(15)
4 ATL 39.9 20
29.9 32
69.8 29
2
(5)
4 OAK 35.1 25
34.4 25
69.6 30
7
(8)
4 TB 31.6 29
35.8 24
67.4 31
1
10
4 JAC 28.0 32
31.1 29
59.1 32
9
(6)





























That is where each team checked in after the final games were played Sunday.  Kansas City was the only team to truly rest many of their starters, but their position did not move much especially considering the performance grade they were expected to earn with their starters versus what they did earn with their backups.  
 
Check the correlation between wins and rating; along with TOM and rating/wins.
 
There were just two teams that missed the playoffs rated in the top 12!!  Detroit ranked 6th but a (12) TOM was the difference in them making the playoffs versus narrowly missing out; Arizona ranked 10th and won 10 games but got the shaft in a tough NFC Wild Card hunt that went to the 12 win 7th ranked Niners & the 11 win 3rd ranked Saints - so both teams that reached the playoffs in the WC slots & winner of the Cardinals division rated above them.  The lowest ranked team in the playoffs is the 11 win 16th ranked Colts, who were boosted by a terrible division along with a +13 TOM, good for 3rd best in the NFL.  Ironically they will host the KC Chiefs on Saturday, who at +18 TOM were #2 in the NFL, only behind the Seattle Seahawks.  The last team in the playoffs not mentioned yet are the Green Bay Packers, who were ranked #3 in the NFL according to my Performance Ratings heading into Wk9 when QB Aaron Rodgers went down with a collarbone injury.  Now they have slid to #15 but remain a dangerous team with Rodgers back under center.
 
Check back later in the week for playoff analysis.
 
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
 

Friday, December 27, 2013

NBA 2013-2014: Performance Ratings, Power Ratings & Projected Playoff Seeds thru 12/26/13





OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL

Current Wins

Current SOS
TEAM
SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

Wins
RANK

SOS
RANK
Indiana
57
15

27
2

84
1

23
2

0.493
18
Minnesota
40
3

44
4

84
1

13
15

0.526
3
Oklahoma City
49
8

47
7

96
3

23
2

0.516
10
San Antonio
71
18

25
1

96
3

23
2

0.517
9
Charlotte
64
17

33
3

97
5

14
12

0.464
30
Portland
30
1

68
19

98
6

24
1

0.502
15
LA Clippers
39
2

60
12

99
7

20
6

0.512
12
Toronto
48
6

54
10

102
8

11
21

0.520
6
Houston
40
3

67
18

107
9

20
6

0.514
11
Detroit
49
8

63
15

112
10

14
12

0.501
16
Miami
55
11

60
12

115
11

22
5

0.475
26
Atlanta
71
18

45
5

116
12

16
10

0.478
23
Denver
48
6

68
19

116
12

14
12

0.508
13
Sacramento
50
10

66
17

116
12

8
26

0.530
2
Chicago
72
21

47
7

119
15

11
21

0.481
22
Washington
73
22

46
6

119
15

12
17

0.469
28
New Orleans
41
5

80
26

121
17

12
17

0.496
17
Memphis
58
16

65
16

123
18

12
17

0.518
8
Golden State
74
23

52
9

126
19

17
8

0.523
5
Dallas
56
13

81
27

137
20

16
10

0.508
13
Phoenix
56
13

81
27

137
20

17
8

0.520
6
Cleveland
78
25

61
14

139
22

10
23

0.476
25
Orlando
85
28

56
11

141
23

8
26

0.483
20
Brooklyn
55
11

89
29

144
24

9
24

0.482
21
New York
74
23

70
22

144
24

9
24

0.484
19
Boston
79
26

70
22

149
26

12
17

0.474
27
LA Lakers
83
27

76
24

159
27

13
15

0.526
3
Philadelphia
91
30

68
19

159
27

8
26

0.477
24
Milwaukee
86
29

76
24

162
29

6
30

0.468
29
Utah
71
18

103
30

174
30

8
26

0.539
1
               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points. 
Biggest movers over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking: MIA +5, SA+4, CLE +4, DET +3, NO (6), TOR (4)
Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through yesterday’s games (12/26), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish on:
Bullish (looking for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 2nd consecutive week
Bearish (opposite of Bullish comments above): Phoenix for 2nd consecutive week
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

HOME
ROAD
TEAM
Power Rating
Power Rating
Indiana
117.5
113.0
Minnesota
116.0
113.0
Oklahoma City
115.9
111.4
San Antonio
114.9
111.4
Charlotte
113.3
111.3
Portland
115.1
111.1
LA Clippers
115.0
111.0
Toronto
112.6
110.6
Houston
113.4
109.9
Detroit
111.3
109.3
Miami
112.9
108.9
Atlanta
112.2
108.7
Denver
111.2
108.7
Sacramento
110.7
108.7
Chicago
110.8
108.3
Washington
110.8
108.3
New Orleans
110.6
108.1
Memphis
109.8
107.8
Golden State
110.9
107.4
Dallas
109.4
105.9
Phoenix
109.4
105.9
Cleveland
108.2
105.7
Orlando
107.4
105.4
Brooklyn
107.0
105.0
New York
107.0
105.0
Boston
106.3
104.3
LA Lakers
105.5
103.0
Philadelphia
105.0
103.0
Milwaukee
104.6
102.6
Utah
103.0
101.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.  Let’s examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can identify some teams to target:
Oklahoma City (-9) @ Charlotte: my power ratings suggest this # should be CHA -2 so we have a definite opportunity here to take advantage of value in this #.  What’s more in this matchup is we are playing on a home barking dog, even better.  One area to remember is even though the Bobcats rank well in our ratings they have played the 30th toughest schedule to date – which is certainly inflating their numbers & performance some.  Even considering that point this is probably too many points, especially with the public currently backing the Thunder.
Detroit (-3.5) @ Orlando: my power ratings suggest this # should be DET -2, right on target.
Milwaukee @ Brooklyn (-5): my power ratings suggest this # should be BRO -4.5, right on target.
Toronto (-2) @ New York: my power ratings suggest this # should be TOR -3.5, right on target.
Washington @ Minnesota (-6): my power ratings suggest this # should be MIN -7.5, right on target.
Denver @ New Orleans (-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -2, right on target.
LA Lakers @ Utah (-4): my power ratings suggest this # should be about a Pick, but there is certainly some built in adjustment for the Lakers missing many of their injured All Stars, who have played some and contributed this season.  Because of the significant injury factor with the Lakers we would not use this variance as potential value.
Miami (-7.5) @ Sacramento: my power ratings suggest this # should be about SAC -2 so we have another opportunity to fade one of the best teams in the NBA as a “bigger than they should be” road favorite.  The Kings check in right behind the Heat in performance to date, but their performance has come against the 2nd toughest schedule in the NBA, while the Heat have cruised playing one of the easiest schedules thanks to residing in the Eastern Conference.  The Kings have definite value tonight as another barking home dog.
Phoenix @ Golden State (-6): my power ratings suggest this # should be GS -5, right on target.
Remember, although there were only two games we identified as having value this evening there are many other ways you should be handicapping NBA games, which would present further opportunities this evening.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end.  The SU projected wins are based on the same statistics as the Performance Ratings but plugged into a tested regression formula weighting each statistic/metric on their true impact on wins:

Current Wins

ATS Wins

Projected Wins
TEAM
Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK
Indiana
23
2

20
1

60.21
2
Minnesota
13
15

15
11

46.53
12
Oklahoma City
23
2

16
8

54.53
5
San Antonio
23
2

16
8

57.98
3
Charlotte
14
12

17
5

41.06
18
Portland
24
1

18
4

49.25
6
LA Clippers
20
6

19
3

54.73
4
Toronto
11
21

12
20

43.97
14
Houston
20
6

17
5

49.04
7
Detroit
14
12

14
15

48.35
9
Miami
22
5

13
16

61.92
1
Atlanta
16
10

17
5

43.55
15
Denver
14
12

12
20

42.57
16
Sacramento
8
26

9
29

31.56
23
Chicago
11
21

10
27

32.70
22
Washington
12
17

15
11

40.39
19
New Orleans
12
17

11
22

45.66
13
Memphis
12
17

9
29

37.32
20
Golden State
17
8

13
16

48.30
10
Dallas
16
10

15
11

47.44
11
Phoenix
17
8

20
1

48.94
8
Cleveland
10
23

11
22

29.58
25
Orlando
8
26

13
16

30.11
24
Brooklyn
9
24

11
22

25.33
26
New York
9
24

10
27

42.47
17
Boston
12
17

15
11

34.83
21
LA Lakers
13
15

16
8

25.10
27
Philadelphia
8
26

11
22

18.40
29
Milwaukee
6
30

11
22

19.73
28
Utah
8
26

13
16

16.76
30

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season.  Based on these projections as of 12/26 the playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 58-24
#2 LA Clippers 55-27
#3 Oklahoma City 55-27
#4 Portland 49-33
#5 Houston 49-33
#6 Phoenix 49-33
#7 Golden State 48-34
#8 Dallas 47-35

Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 62-20
#2 Indiana 60-22
#3 Detroit 48-34
#4 Toronto 44-38
#5 Atlanta 44-38
#6 New York 42-40
#7 Charlotte 41-41
#8 Washington 40-42


Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013