This is our first installment of bracketology for the 2016 NCAA Tournament
and comes as we close out February!
Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly likely to play well enough in the
regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to
play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within
conference with SBPI rank shown first [pure stats based ranking which should be
a better projection than RPI of performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown
second for each team**
**One bid conference projected automatic bid winners are highest
SBPI team **
America East: Stony Brook #114/#52
American Athletic: Cincinnati #34/#56
Need Wins: Tulsa #38/#36, UConn #67/#44, Temple #77/#61, Houston #121/#86
- No team (including Cincy) at this
point is a lock to earn a bid but it seems this is a multiple bid league;
Houston barely hanging on for consideration based on closing games vs.
Cincinnati & UConn – winning both will keep them alive.
Atlantic Ten: St. Joseph’s (PA) #78/#25
Looking
Good: Dayton #63/#17
Need
Wins: St. Bonaventure #104/#33, George Washington #60/#46, VCU
#47/#60, Davidson #101/#57
- SBPI is not high on the A10 this year
as it ranks just 10th in total conference strength, trailing the
AAC, Colonial & Horizon. This does
however have the look of a 4-5 bid league; Davidson barely hanging on but can
still close regular season strongly by beating fellow bubble squads VCU &
GW.
ACC: Duke #4/#11
Looking Good: Virginia #13/#6, Miami #9/#7, North
Carolina #18/#8, Notre Dame #27/#26
Need Wins: Syracuse #42/#54, Pittsburgh #15/#41
- 2nd strongest conference
according to SBPI should earn 6-7 bids on Selection Sunday. Pitt’s sweep of Syracuse is huge for their
resume & a win at home over Duke this weekend could put them over the hump;
the Panthers likely need at least 3 more wins to make a strong case considering
they are just 1-6 vs. RPI Top 50.
Syracuse has played much better since Boeheim returned to the sidelines
but they face a tough closing schedule that could leave them heavily reliant on
their ACC Tournament performance.
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast #221/#239
Big 12: Kansas #2/#1
Looking Good: Oklahoma #19/#3, West Virginia #1/#14,
Iowa State #58/#19, Texas #20/#24, Baylor #3/#27
Need Wins: Texas Tech #40/#23
- Strongest conference according to SBPI
has basically 6 spots locked in with Texas Tech in the next category; if
tourney was today the Red Raiders are situated well & would likely earn a
bid – however, they have 3 remaining games in the regular season including road
trips to Kansas & West Virginia. If
they can win either of those plus handle Kansas State on their home court in
the regular season finale they will be firmly in play come Selection Sunday.
Big East: Villanova #5/#2
Looking Good: Xavier #6/#4
Need Wins: Seton Hall #33/#38, Providence #22/#40, Butler #28/#62
- Looks like a 4 bid league at this
point, possibly extending to 5. The
Pirates will earn a bid with two more wins, likely in with just one more; PC
& Butler sit at 7-8 in conference play and must reach at least 9-9 to feel
solid heading into the BET; the Friars have a favorable last 3 games while Butler’s
will be more challenging.
Big Sky: Montana #191/#149
Big South: UNC Asheville #128/#155
Big Ten: Michigan State #17/#15
Looking Good: Maryland #44/#10, Iowa #24/#20, Purdue
#14/#21, Wisconsin #11/#34, Indiana #39/#29
Need Wins: Michigan #51/#50
- From top to bottom the B10 checks in
way down at 5th in the SBPI as far as conference strength, a lot of
which is driven by terrible Rutgers checking in at #271. Six teams are locked into a bid with Michigan
still having the ability to play their way in – what do they need to do? Winning one of their last two (@WIS, IOWA)
would likely do the trick getting them to 20 wins especially with that neutral
court OOC win over Texas; two more wins they are a lock.
Big West: Long Beach State #62/#98
Colonial: UNC Wilmington #59/#68
Conference USA: Western Kentucky #144/#191
Horizon: Valparaiso #53/#58
Ivy: Yale #65/#55
MAAC: Monmouth #108/#48 (alive for at-large without conference
title)
MAC: Northern Illinois #84/#127
MEAC: Norfolk State #277/#240
Missouri Valley: Wichita State #21/#47 (alive for at-large without
conference title)
Mountain West: San Diego State #66/#49 (alive for at-large without
conference title)
Northeast: Wagner #297/#187
Ohio Valley: Morehead State #103/#123
Pac 12: Oregon #5/#8
Looking Good: Utah #23/#9, California #29/#18
Need Wins: Colorado #30/#30, Arizona #32/#31, Oregon State #45/#28, USC
#55/#37
- Another year with the same situation;
the Pac 12 is the toughest conference as resumes are tough to dissect. Looks like this is a 6-bid league with
possibility to reach 7 if all the dominoes fall right.
Patriot: Lehigh #216/#185
SEC: Kentucky #12/#12
Looking Good: Texas A&M #10/#22, South Carolina
#46/#32
Need Wins: Florida #16/#42, Alabama #117/#45, Vanderbilt #35/#53
- Once again the SEC ranks as the worst
power conference but should have 5-6 bids come Selection Sunday. The Gators have a pair of strong OOC wins
over St. Joseph’s (PA) & West Virginia which puts them above Alabama &
Vanderbilt currently in my opinion despite just recently losing to both on
their home floor. Florida still has to
visit LSU and host Kentucky in two of their three remaining regular season
games – considering they still need at least 2 wins it won’t be easy but they
likely get it done. Alabama has five Top
50 wins (vs. two for Florida & four for Vandy) and a favorable closing schedule
that may have them looking better than Florida heading into the SEC
Tournament. Vanderbilt’s closing
schedule is similar to Florida’s facing UK & a road trip to College Station
for 2 of their final 3; not easy. The
SEC Tournament will likely determine which of these three teams earns a bid
& very well could find themselves playing a first four matchup in Dayton as
an 11 or 12 seed.
Southern: Chattanooga #89/#64
Southland: Stephen F. Austin #132/#102
SWAC: Texas Southern #197/#207
Summit: South Dakota State #79/#43
Sun Belt: Arkansas Little Rock #85/#35
West Coast: Gonzaga #57/#70
WAC: New Mexico State #194/#112
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 20
Currently I project 52 of the 68 bids
are earned.
NEED WINS: 22
As of this moment we have 22 teams battling for those last 16 bids
that remain “open”
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include
the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from
smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an
at-large bid on themselves; as of now I only see THREE teams that could fit
that profile, much smaller sample than prior years (Monmouth, Wichita State,
San Diego State).
For the remaining 16 open bids this is the way I see it currently
(listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference;
teams highlighted in yellow are LAST FIVE IN):
Tulsa
UConn
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
VCU
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Seton Hall
Providence
Michigan
Colorado
Arizona
Oregon State
USC
Florida
Alabama
FIRST FIVE OUT (alphabetical by conference):
Davidson
Butler
Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt
Temple
Multiple bid conferences (total of 44 bids in 8 conferences; 24
single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B10 (7)
B12 (7)
P12 (7)
ACC (6)
SEC (5)
A10 (5)
BE (4)
AAC (3)
Thanks again for reading, please feel free
to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS,
2016
