New England Patriots Defense

Is the New England Patriots defense really the 2^nd worst in the NFL?

By now we have all read and heard about the Patriots and what the media continually touts as the 31^st ranked defense, only besting the Packers this season.  But what does that ranking truly mean?  Is it really an indicator of a porous defense?   

To truly measure the positive or negative impact of a defensive unit one needs to analyze much more than purely yards allowed, as there are so many factors that can go into driving that metric it is essentially almost useless.  How else could you consider the fact GB & NE were the two worst performers in that stat all season, yet they somehow went a combined 28-4 SU in the regular season (RS)?  It makes ABSOLUTELY ZERO SENSE to use yards allowed as ANY KIND OF INDICATOR of defensive performance.

Instead, what is a useful exercise is to take a closer look at many more stats, and for today that means the 16 stats I track on a game by game basis to dig deeper and see if that statement is true, and also look at which areas NE is productive vs. where they struggle.

As a quick background and reminder, I track 16 different stats on a game by game basis for my main “performance” model which gives me a very solid feel for how productive teams are, and more importantly how team’s match up with each other.  Over the course of the last 6 months there are many posts in this blog discussing this performance model if you are interested. 

But back to the point at hand - on the season I have rated the Patriots defense #29, only ahead of #30 BUF, #31 IND & #32 TB.  GB, which checks in at #32 in yards allowed, is rated #27 in my model – two notches above NE.  Anyway you want to slice and dice it, the Patriots statistically speaking did not play well defensively this season.  But is it truly as bad as the media suggests?  Where specifically are their weaknesses that NYG may be able to take advantage of, or where are their strengths (if any – the media would have you believe there are none) where NYG may struggle – and most importantly, how do the two teams match up on this side of the ball?  All stats and rankings below include only RS games.

Rushing defense:

1. Yards per rush - #26
2. Yards rushing - #15
3. First downs rushing - #19
4. First downs rushing as a % of total carries - #24

Rushing defense synopsis: together these four rankings equal the #20 rushing defense in the NFL.  However, that ranking cannot be looked at on a standalone basis – why you may ask?  What also needs to be included to get a truly accurate picture is strength of schedule (SOS) – that is very critical when analyzing any stats in the NFL.  In this example NE played the #13 SOS vs. rushing offenses – what that means is for all 16 RS opponents they have played it aggregates to the 13^th toughest schedule (so in this example what that basically means is they have played a schedule of rushing offenses about average because 16 would be the middle/average).  If that was #1 that would mean they played the toughest schedule in the NFL as far as opponent rushing offenses goes.  Of the 12 teams that played a tougher schedule vs. rushing offenses 7 of them performed better than NE – so roughly half, not bad but not great.  We can also make a few more solid judgments on their rushing defense looking at it on a stat by stat basis:

• While their yards rushing was #15, or middle of the pack, their yards per rush was #26 – poor.  Here is a perfect spot where if you understand the entire stat package you can make strong conclusions as far as their true rushing defense performance – what that relationship is telling us is teams had a lot of success when they attempted to rush, but more times than not they apparently did not have as many attempts as they probably would have liked to boost that total yards rushing figure up.  We can see a clear relationship here if we look at passing attempts – NE faced the 4^th most passing attempts in the NFL – a clear sign teams were often behind and needed to score to keep pace with the potent Patriots offense, and the fact NE scored a lot of points (#3 in NFL) – or passed the ball more than they rushed it.  That is why we do not see as many yards rushing compared to yards per rushing attempt.
• We will often see a correlation between yards per rush and first downs rushing as a % of total carries – why you ask?  If you think about it, teams were successful on NE rushing the ball when they wanted to – so for that reason we see when teams tried to rush for first downs in short to medium yardage situations they were often successful.

Overall I would not consider their rushing defense poor when taking into account the entire season, but when you look at the way it was trending it tells a different, and definitely worse story: over their first 7 games they only allowed one team to rush for 100+ yards - @ OAK in Wk4 (average for the 7 games was 101 yards rushing but most of that is driven by the 160 allowed @ OAK – remove that game and over the 6 they only allowed 91yds/game).   However over their last 9 games in the RS they allowed 7 teams to rush for 100+,and yielded an average of 129yds/game.  So while the #’s do not show a disaster as far as rushing defense goes, it certainly was only average at best over the course of the entire season, and was trending downwards towards poor as far as production is measured over the last half of the RS. 

Passing defense:

1. Yards per pass attempt - #29
2. Completion % - #17
3. Passing yards - #32
4. Sacks - #14
5. Interceptions - #3
6. Passing TD’s - #26
7. QB Rating - #20

Passing defense synopsis: those 7 rankings together equaled the #25 passing defense in the NFL.  Taking into account an SOS of 19, and it all equals a below average pass defense unit for sure.  As we can see from the rankings above the success of the NE pass defense relied a lot on the big play, whether it be the #3 ranked team for creating interceptions, or the #14 team creating sacks.  But a closer look at these high level assumptions may lead to another viewpoint on these metrics: taking into account the Patriots faced the 4^th most pass attempts in the NFL, their sacks/attempt and INT/attempt metrics are not as robust – sacks/attempt of 0.0645 is #20 in the NFL, while INT/attempt of 0.0371 is #7 in the NFL.  A small adjustment to be made, but nevertheless, another warning sign that even the metrics NE appears to be solid in may not be as good as most media pundits will lead you to believe.  Clearly some of the passing yards that slots them last in the NFL is driven by the fact NE was #3 in scoring offense, which gives their opponents both more possessions, and an increased chance they will face more passes (which we do see in the attempts point mentioned above) – but still, their yards per pass attempt ranking of #29 is extremely poor, especially considering the # of pass attempts they faced.  Here are the teams that faced more passes than the Patriots this season: 

1. GB: faced a lot of pass attempts because of the same reasons NE did – typically GB had a nice lead, and the other team was forced to play catch-up.  They were ranked #30 in yards per pass attempt defensively which eventually caught up to them when they allowed Eli Manning to pass for 325 yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
2. CHI: this team may be an “outsider” of sorts being this high up, especially for a non-playoff team – but what was driving this figure was CHI’s #6 ranked rushing defense, vs. the #6 SOS of rushing offenses.  Basically, it was very tough to run the ball on the Bears, so teams were forced to pass.  In addition, their schedule was full of some of the best QB’s in the NFL: Rodgers twice, Stafford twice, Brees, Ryan, Rivers, Newton – half of their games were vs. those 6 QB’s.  They were ranked #18 in yards per pass attempt defensively – extremely solid especially considering they faced the #3 schedule vs. passing offenses – a big reason they started the season 7-3 before Cutler went down.
3. NO: same reasons as NE & GB.  They were ranked #13 in yards per pass attempt defensively.

As we can see outside GB the other two teams who faced more passes than NE performed significantly better in yards per pass attempt - another red flag.  Overall their passing metrics leave a lot to be desired as if they are not creating turnovers via the interception they are extremely susceptible to their opponents passing game, as we saw in the AFC Championship Game where Flacco had one of his better games of the season passing for his most yards since Wk8, and third most all season. 

Miscellaneous defense: 

1. First Downs - #31
2. Yards per play - #30
3. 3^rd and 4^th down conversion % - #30
4. TO Margin - #3
5. Time of Possession - #24

Miscellaneous defense synopsis: first off as an FYI, the last two stats can be attributed to both offense and defense, so because of that I give both their offense and defense half of their total performance grade in those stats so as to not count them twice, and evenly allocate to both sides of the ball.  As we see these #s sans turnover margin are downright brutal; perhaps the two biggest statistical indicators (yards per play and conversion %) NE ranked #30 –that is driving the perception around the league about how bad their defensive unit is.  For SOS impact on these figures I typically look at two measures: one is the actual SOS for these stats which is #24, and overall SOS for opponent’s offense which is #22.  Not much else to say but wow, these #s are just downright terrible again sans turnover margin, especially because it can be argued a few of these indicators are the biggest prognosticator of either success of failure. 

But alas, the one figure that stands out in a positive manner is a big one – and that is TO margin.  Again and again turnovers are key indicators for team success in the NFL.  This season, of the top 10 TO margin teams in the NFL, only two did not make the playoffs: SEA and DAL.  NE checked in @ #3, a robust +17 on the season.  What’s more, the Patriots were plus in the TO margin 11 of 16 games; toss in another game where it was 0, and 75% of the games this season they didn’t lose that battle.  New England has an extremely high correlation between SU & ATS records vs. TO margin.  Let’s take a closer look at the last 3 seasons:

• 2011: 13-3 RS record.  Negative TO margin 4 games.  Records 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS.  The only game all season where they won the TO margin but lost the game SU was @ PIT in Wk8.  One of the negative games was against NYG in a Wk9 loss.
• 2010: 14-2 RS record.  TO margin +28, ranking #1 in the NFL.  Negative TO margin 3 games.  Records 1-2 SU & ATS – remember, they only lost two games all year! 
• 2009: 10-6 RS record. Negative TO margin 5 games.  Records 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games!

Amazing, combining the last two season, NE has gone 27-5 during the RS – coincidentally they lost the TO margin 7 times which includes every loss they have suffered, and they went 2-5 ATS in those games.  Combining last 3 seasons they have gone 37-11 during RS – lost TO margin 12 games, and went 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS!

How does New England keep winning with this defense?

• NE’s offense is their best defense.  Plain and simple.  The fact they average scoring 32 points per game is by itself going to make it difficult for teams to beat them if they achieve that average in any given game.
• Because NE often goes up early, and scores a lot of points, teams are forced to abandon their running game and pass the ball often times more than they are comfortable with.  As we saw teams are effective in the yards per rush metric which shows success via the ground is attainable – the whole key is how long will NE’s offense allow a team to stick with that game plan?
• Turnovers – NE is consistently at the top of the league in this metric, and this is one of the top two best at projecting winning and losing games.

What should the Giants do to best enhance their chances of having success on offense, and winning this game?

• Run, run, run, and keep running some more.  In the prior meeting between these teams in Wk9 which the Giants won at Gillette 24-20 they rushed for 111 yards, their 3^rd highest total of the season.  NYG rushed for 100+ yards in 8 games this season, and coincidentally went 7-1 SU in those games (keep in mind their RS record was only 9-7), and a whopping 7-0-1 ATS!  During the Giants mid season slump when they went 0-4 SU in Wks 10-13 they only averaged 74 yards per game on the ground; when they closed the RS with 3 wins in 4 games they rushed for 91+ in each, and averaged 106 yards per game.  That’s a big difference, and a big reason the G-Men stepped up, won the NFC East, and now find themselves in the Super Bowl.  Have to keep it going on the ground.
• Look for the big play through the air.  We see from above it isn’t very easy to complete short yardage passes and attempt to move the chains via the short passing game vs. NE as they are #17 in completion % allowed.  However as discussed above they allow a ton of yards thru the air, and also allow a ton of yards per attempt – both those are a recipe for allowing a lot of long yardage completions.  Eli Manning has to continue looking for Cruz, Manningham and Nicks down the field for big chunk yardage plays.
• Hold onto the ball, and pressure Brady into mistakes.  First, Eli Manning must avoid the INT, something he has had problems with in the past, and just this season ranking #20 in NFL throwing INT’s.  Manning only had 5 games all season where he did not throw an INT, and in those 5 games the Giants went 5-0 SU / 3-1-1 ATS.  Taking care of the ball is the first phase.  Next, the Giants must continue pressuring the QB, something they have done as well as anyone in football this season.  NYG check in @ #3 in sacks, while NE is #10 at allowing sacks – kind of strength vs. strength here, and this is an area the Giants have to win.  Hopefully for the NYG that pressure will directly force bad decisions from Brady, and allow the #7 defensive unit in INT’s to pick off a few.  INT’s thrown by Brady and win/loss for NE is directly correlated as Brady threw 2 or more INT’s three times this season, and NE was 1-2 SU / 0-3 ATS in those games including the prior matchup with NYG.

Conclusion: we know from examining all the buckets in this analysis that many of the key indicators do not show well for NE.  That is a fact, and even though the #31 yards allowed defensive ranking the media touts a lot is a TERRIBLE way to judge performance, in this case it works out because even looking at this more granular, NE still has a well below average defensive unit.  However, in the biggest stat of them all, points allowed, NE is ranked #15 – and accomplishing that vs. the #22 opponent offense SOS  would slide them in just below average.  Combine that with the fact Hall of Famer Tom Brady is their QB leading an offense that averages 32.1 points per game, that Hall of Famer Bill Belichick is their HC, and the fact they continue to generate a very favorable TO margin, and we can see why the Patriots continue their winning ways even with sporting a defense that most teams in the NFL would be picking in the top ten on draft day with. COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012

Divisional Round Playoff Preview

Divisional Round Playoff Preview

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco Forty-Niners

Saturday January 14, 2012 – 430pm EDT

For the first time ever I am going to publicly handicap this game using all the tools I analyze on a weekly basis to give everyone not only a feel for my style and the numbers I use, but also to give everyone a detailed breakdown of each of these teams that can hopefully be used to assist in your personal handicapping of this game.  I will lay out by # each model, database, or piece of information I utilize, provide some details behind each, and also cover some high level trends and historical items I may use when breaking NFL games down. 

1.       UNITS BREAKDOWN: in this database I breakdown each team’s offense and defense into four buckets: rushing, passing, miscellaneous and overall.  I use 4 stats for rushing, 7 stats for passing, 5 stats for miscellaneous (these are stats that cannot directly be related to either rushing or passing such as first downs, time of possession, etc…), and the combination of all 16 stats for total offense and defense.  In addition to looking at the stats I look at specific SOS categories for each bucket – meaning I break down each team’s opponent’s strength in each of these 3 areas by themselves, and in total.  In this game we have a classic offense vs. defense matchup as the Saints come in with the #1 offense while SF has the #2 defense – and both attained those rankings vs. #31 schedules (SF faced the 2^nd easiest schedule vs. offenses while NO faced the 2^nd easiest schedule of defenses on the entire season).  Not only is that virtually even, the buckets are also almost identical – the only area with > 3 spot variance is the Saints rushing offense that is ranked #7 vs. the Niners rushing defense that is ranked #1 – both vs. the #32 schedule.  On the other side of the ball SF has an edge as they check in at #16 offensively vs. #9 SOS, while NO’s defense is ranked #24 vs. #18 SOS.  Ranking wise the dispersion is almost equal across all 3 buckets, but the largest SF edge comes in rushing where they are #15/#7 SOS, while NO is #23/#20 SOS.  Edge: San Francisco driven by their rushing attack.

2.       STAT RANKINGS: in this database I take where each team’s rank in the statistical categories I track and compare offense to the opponent’s defense for both teams – I sum up the edges for each team and whoever is plus has an advantage.  Basically, this is just a more granular version of the Units breakdown and it allows me to focus on specific stats and areas that are driving an advantage for one team or another.  This database has a very small SF edge mostly due to a slightly tougher SOS as the two teams are nearly identical in total rankings.  One key number that stands out in this model however is the TO margin – SF led the league at +28 on the season, while NO checked in at -3.  Edge: San Francisco very small driven by SOS and TO Margin.

3.       REGRESSION: in this model I back-tested 10 years of data on every NFL regular season game that was played, using the 16 stats I track game by game, and compared those using Excel to a team’s points scored.  Excel responded with a formula that estimates the approximate weighting each stat has on points scored – I then take an average of each team’s offense vs. the opponents defense and vice versa, apply that forecasted amount for each stat by its corresponding weighting, and sum each team’s points up for a projected margin of victory.  Using this model for this game SF is estimated to win by approximately 0.5 to 1 point.  Edge: San Francisco very small driven by TO margin.

4.       PERFORMANCE RATINGS: anyone that stops by this blog regularly, or reads the Chad Millman column on www.espn.com knows I refer to this model I built on a weekly basis as the projections this feeds me more times than not lead me to picking the right side of a game – which I just realized around Thanksgiving.  As a reminder, this model grades team’s game by game on a scale of 0-160 – there are 160 points per game, so if a team scores 81 they “won” the game according to these ratings.  What’s more, teams that do score 81 or above in this model cover the line 73% of the time – yes, all that needs to be done is project who wins in these ratings and you will win cash 73% of the time.  This model will be a major focus of mine over the summer as baseball season will be a pass for me in order to prepare for football season – starting right here with this model.  I have 3 versions of this model, one uses full season stats, one uses home/away splits, and one uses last three games – for each stat I use I project each team’s performance (i.e. 175 rushing yards), which then gets “graded” based on data over the last ten seasons (i.e. 175 rushing yards = 5 out of a possible 5 points).  Then I sum each team’s offense and defense performance ratings and that figure has been a big piece of my handicapping over the last third of the season – not coincidentally I have not lost one week since realizing the correlation between this model and ATS performance (it would make sense for there to be high correlation with this model and SU performance as obviously the better a team does statistically, the better they will grade out, and thus the more likely they are to win a game SU).  Without divulging the exact ratings this model provides me on this game, I can state NO has the edge in the full season stats and last three games versions; while SF has the edge in the H/A splits version.  In addition to my performance ratings I also break out pts scored vs. pts against for each team’s offense vs. defense in the respective groupings named above, and doing that yields NO -1.8pts using full season data, SF -7pts using home/away splits, and NO -8.8pts using last 3 games.  So at a high level this model is really providing mixed signals as NO is favored in 2 of the 3 in both performance ratings and points scored/against versions.  But since it is not absolute, more analysis is needed looking at the projections for each stat – which will remain for my eyes only.  Edge: New Orleans driven by having a favorable rating grade in 2 of 3 models.

5.       HOME/AWAY GRADES: here I take the average of each team’s offense vs. the opponent’s defense rating (same ratings from pt4), and vice versa, and add the variances up to see who has the edge.  Applying to this game the NO offense vs. the SF defense is a dead even wash-out; but the SF offense checks in at 45.1 in their home games while the NO defense’s average rating in road games was 36.8.  What is interesting here is although SF has an advantage breaking the numbers down as such, SF was rated #5 in home game performance this season vs. the #14 SOS, while NO was rated #3 in road game performance vs. the #16 SOS.  When looking at that a little closer, both the SF defense and the NO offense averaged over 50 rating points per game, which is extremely high.  Taking a look at the correlation/relationship between performance ratings and points scored it would appear although SF and NO both averaged scoring the same amount of points at home and on road respectively, SF performed a lot worse than NO – suggesting some of SF’s points scored were “lucky” and “opportunistic” driven by their strong defense often giving them short fields to work with.  Edge: San Francisco driven by both their high offense rating and the NO low defense rating.

6.       POWER RATINGS: in my personal regular season power ratings this game features #1 New Orleans Saints vs. #3 San Francisco Forty-Niners.  In the first aspect of the RS PR which is driven by my performance ratings, I have NO rated at the top alone, with SF on the next level down.  On the season NO was #2 in my performance stats only trailing HOU (#1 off, #20 def, #31 SOS), while SF was #6 in the performance stats (#15 off, #4 def, #30 SOS) – which all equates in my estimation to SF being one notch below NO.  The second aspect of the power rating relates to ATS performance and although it has a smaller weighting than the performance aspect of the formula, it does make an impact – and in that NO has a small advantage there as well partially based on the fact they started the season in a better position in those ratings than SF did. In the playoff version which takes into account regular season performance such as points scored, points against, and strength of opponents (and strength of their opponents opponents), NO has about a 3pt edge which is just about offset by the home field advantage of SF in this game.  Edge: Even

7.       RECENT PERFORMANCE: another big aspect of handicapping is recognizing not only who has performed best over the course of an entire season, but also who comes in playing the best football as January arrives.  I have a sheet that shows me all 32 teams in the NFL, and their offense/defense/total performance rating by game for all 17 weeks of the season.  I also break this down by shading each team’s home and away games to get a better feel for not only how well a team is currently playing, but also how their home/away splits have been recently and for the entire season.  Wins and losses are good indicators of who is or isn’t playing well, but often it does not tell the entire story like analyzing statistics does – and as mentioned earlier these ratings are about as good as it gets in both the ATS and SU world.  When breaking these two teams down we first notice both teams have been playing well of late – remember 80 is the “breakeven” in these ratings – NO scored triple digits 3 of their last 4 games (only one they did not they reached 97), while SF scored 91 and 103 in their last 2, and reached triple digits in 3 of their last 7.  Triple digit ratings are reached by approx. 4 teams every week.  But one noticeable trait seen in these ratings for certain are the home/away splits definitely favors SF.  Edge: SF small based on the home/away splits; entire season favors NO.

8.       ATS HISTORICAL TRENDS: on another sheet in my package I have the last 4 seasons of ATS performance by team broken into a few buckets: four high level buckets as home fav/dog and away fav/dog.  Within those buckets I break lines into 3 categories: 3 or less, 3.5-6.5, 7+.  When utilizing this analysis for this specific matchup we see SF is a robust 15-6 as a home favorite (including 5-0 this year )– but alas they are an underdog this week for the first time all season and in that spot they are 3-3,  going 2-4 SU.  NO on the other hand is 11-9 as a road favorite going 17-3 SU – this season in this spot they are 3-3 ATS including 4-2 SU.  Hard to reach any conclusions using this data as on one hand NO is 17-3 SU over the last 4 seasons as a road favorite – but that is offset some by the fact they only went 4-2 in that spot this year.  Some specific trends we see are NO are 8-0 L8 as a favorite (a streak that started following their SU loss @ STL earlier this season), 8-0 L8 vs. NFC, and 10-3 L13 meetings (dating back to their days as NFC West divisional rivals); SF is 10-2-1 L13 vs. NFC, 13-3-1 L17 overall, and 12-3-1 L16 on grass.  Again, both teams with lots of ATS hot streaks coming into this game.  Edge: Even

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012

NFL 2011 Season in Review – Part I

Another NFL season is in the books, and as we head into the playoffs here is part I of approximately 5 that will discuss some of the interesting statistics we saw this year using my performance ratings model (PR).  In this first edition we will discuss where the teams stacked up, what that should have meant to their record, and what it did mean at the end of the day.

	OFF	RANK		DEF	RANK		TOTAL	RANK		SOS		Wins
HOU	47.8	5		49.6	2		97.44	1		32		10
NO	57.4	1		37.5	20		94.94	2		31		13
PIT	45.5	10		48.9	3		94.41	3		29		12
BAL	40.6	16		50.2	1		90.75	4		28		12
PHI	47.2	7		42.9	7		90.03	5		16		8
SF	40.8	15		48.6	4		89.38	6		30		13
DAL	46.4	9		41.7	11		88.16	7		24		8
ATL	47.1	8		40.2	13		87.34	8		22		10
GB	53.5	3		32.7	27		86.19	9		27		15
NE	53.6	2		32.2	29		85.78	10		19		13
DET	45.5	11		39.9	16		85.41	11		12		10
NYJ	36.6	20		47.5	5		84.13	12		14		8
SD	47.8	6		36.3	23		84.06	13		23		8
CAR	49.2	4		32.5	28		81.66	14		25		6
NYG	44.3	13		36.5	22		80.78	15		3		9
OAK	44.3	12		36.2	24		80.47	16		20		8
CIN	37.1	19		42.8	8		79.94	17		26		9
MIA	36.2	23		42.3	9		78.41	18		5		6
CHI	36.3	21		41.8	10		78.16	19		10		8
DEN	36.3	22		38.8	18		75.09	20		18		8
SEA	33.8	26		41.3	12		75.09	20		13		7
BUF	42.9	14		31.2	30		74.13	22		4		6
WAS	35.3	24		38.9	17		74.13	22		8		5
KC	33.8	27		40.1	14		73.84	24		15		7
TEN	37.6	17		35.8	25		73.44	25		21		9
JAC	29.4	30		44.0	6		73.38	26		10		5
ARI	33.0	28		40.0	15		73.03	27		17		8
MIN	37.4	18		33.6	26		71.00	28		12		3
CLE	31.0	29		38.5	19		69.56	29		7		4
STL	27.2	32		36.8	21		63.91	30		2		2
TB	34.9	25		28.3	32		63.22	31		1		4
IND	29.3	31		29.1	31		58.44	32		6		2

The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the statistics I utilize to track true team performance.  Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game, 80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 basically played average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season. 

A very important factor when developing any models to numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance in the same stat.  For example, if one was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid running the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes 6 times for 42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for 100 yards on 20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than likely team B would represent a stronger running game then team A even though if you only use the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion.  In addition, SOS is very important; it is actually flat out critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are before rushing to state one team is better because their statistics say so.  That phenomenon also needs to be applied to unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams down into rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use.  Let’s discuss an example of this, and show how often listening to the media can be a big time downfall: in Week 17 Pittsburgh played at Cleveland, and the Pittsburgh passing offense came in ranked #11 in my ratings, while the Cleveland pass defense came in ranked #10.  Sounds about even, right?  Well not exactly.  For ease of discussion, and since for this precise example I am using it doesn’t have any impact because we are only talking stats here, let’s just assume Big Ben came into the game healthy, and both team’s had no significant injuries and were properly motivated to win this game.  What the media doesn’t take the time to figure out, but you MUST if you want to be successful at breaking games down, is PIT’s #11 pass offense came against the 5^th toughest schedule of passing defenses in the NFL; CLE’s #10 pass defense came against the 8^th easiest schedule vs. passing offenses.  When including the SOS into this analysis you can see PIT’s passing offense would have an edge, holding all other variables constant – yet the media would tout this as a close matchup, maybe even a small CLE edge because of the pure stats.  Be smarter than the media, and the guys in the desert – do your homework, it is the only way to be successful at playing these games.  Also, keep that in mind when building your own models and databases to handicap the NFL – there are various “splits” that should be utilized at all times to better forecast outcomes.  

Let’s take a closer look at the table on first page, and focus on the playoff teams.  The top 4 teams made the playoffs, then 2 of the next 3 missed (PHI, DAL), then the next 4 also made it – which means 9 of the top 11 in the performance ratings made the playoffs.  The last three spots went to NYG #15, CIN #17 & DEN #20.  For comparative purposes SEA rated a 67.3 last season and was #29 in the NFL – so the teams this season do not approach that level performance wise –record wise they certainly do.  Many people do not think DEN has much of a shot vs. PIT this week – but the numbers may tell a different story.  Last season’s epic WC upset in SEA had more of a discrepancy performance wise than this PIT/DEN game coming up on Sunday.  Last year NO was rated #7 vs. #28 SOS while SEA was #29 vs. #25 SOS – a 22 spot difference rating wise with similar SOS ranks.  This year PIT rates #3 vs. #29 SOS while DEN checks in at #20 vs. #18 SOS – a rating differential of only 17 spots; then add back in the fact DEN has played a tougher schedule by 11 spots and you can see true team performance wise this game should be a lot closer than last year’s was – Vegas should have this line lower than last season’s especially considering the fact PIT has a lot of injuries coming into this game.  That is something to keep an eye on Sunday for certain.

On to breaking down these numbers some.  HOU checking in at #1 has almost the identical rating of 2010 #1 SD – however HOU spent most of the season in the triple digits, and started dropping when Matt Schaub went down for the season.  Prior to Schaub going down HOU was playing 103.4 ball thru Wk10 – following the injury and subsequent move to mostly TJ Yates under center the Texans played 87.5 ball, which dropped their season rating below 100.  Obviously heading into the playoffs that needs to be adjusted for – team performance essentially slid about 15% once Schaub went down.  The Colts won the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and also finished the season ranked dead last in my performance ratings – also of note it was the lowest rating of any team over at least the last 3 seasons.  Hard to imagine one man can mean so much to a team, but that is what we saw this season when Indy lost Manning before the season started – last year IND was rated #13 vs. #13 SOS – a very solid club.  Another interesting team is Philadelphia, as they check in at #5 in the ratings, yet only went 8-8.  Here is a prime example where we can see the impact of SOS – look how high their SOS is compared to many of the teams around them – they actually have the highest SOS of the top 10 teams in the NFL – which clearly impacted their W/L record.  It is also not a coincidence the other team that stands out performance vs. wins wise is DAL – another NFC East team – the NFC East played the AFC East this season which certainly increased the strength of their schedules.

Top 5 Offenses:

1. Saints:  no surprise here as the Saints were on cruise control offensively for most of the season averaging a robust 34ppg on season, including 41ppg at home.  Brees was fabulous all season with a 110 QBR, which was second in the NFL only behind Rodgers.  Unfortunately for them they were not able to secure the #2 seed, and will likely have to play 2 road games vs. a top notch defense and potentially in very bad weather the next round if they are to reach another Super Bowl this season.
2. Patriots:  maybe somewhat surprising NE checks in above GB here but it was driven by NE having a slightly better running game, along with allowing less sacks.  This is the third straight season the Patriots offense has ranked #2, and they also are the only team that was ranked in top 5 last season offensively that repeated that feat this season.  Brady had a solid campaign, and hopes to lead NE to their first playoff win since 2007 next weekend.
3. Packers:  likely MVP Aaron Rodgers led a potent Packers attack that was tops in the league in scoring, and was 2^nd in passing behind the Saints in my PR.  GB is looking to become the first back to back Super Bowl winner since the ’03-’04 Patriots, and the first NFC team to accomplish the feat since the Dallas Cowboys in ’93-’94. 
4. Panthers:  maybe surprising here, but Cam Newton had the best rookie season passing wise in NFL history, and that always potent Panther rushing attack was in full effect this season even with a new head coach.  Things are looking up in Carolina with Cam under center, and the NFC South is stacked with great QB’s in himself, Brees and Ryan.
5. Texans:  this really shows just how well Houston was playing when Schaub was healthy that they could build up such a strong rating they could hang on to a top 5 ranking even with a rookie under center for the last 6 games.  With Schaub the offense was averaging 52, without him 41 for an average of 48.  Arian Foster also played a big part in the #5 offense in the NFL.  Next season with a health Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson the Texans will certainly be a force on the offensive side of the ball.

Top 5 Defenses:

1. Ravens:  Baltimore takes over the top spot for the first time in at least 3 seasons as they ranked in the single digits every category I track besides INT where they were #17, and time of possession where they checked in at #10.  Can their offense step up to match the defense in the playoffs is the only question – one we have been asking for quite some time now and the resounding answer always seems to be no.  This season they could draw a big break if Houston beats Cincinnati at home Saturday having to face the Schaub-less Texans – really tough to see TJ Yates going into Baltimore’s rowdy loud stadium and come out with a win.  However, if CIN was to beat HOU that would likely set up a third matchup with PIT this year – whom they already beat twice during the regular season.  We all know the saying it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season – that will really be put to the test and would be a great game to watch as a fan.
2. Texans:  the media was very late on the Houston defense, but this model wasn’t.  Houston held the top spot defensively for the entire season starting with their Wk1 pounding of the Manning-less Colts thru the final week of the regular season.  If Houston is to do anything in the playoffs the defense will have to play at an extremely high level.  Similar to BAL in the sense they also only ranked outside the top ten in two categories: INT #13 and conversions allowed #14.
3. Steelers:  third straight AFC team at the top of the defensive rankings is the always solid and steady Pittsburgh Steelers.  This season the pass defense really set the tone as they were ranked #1 in yards per pass attempt, yards passing, and gain per offensive play.  They will certainly be a very tough matchup for the offensively challenged Broncos this Sunday in Denver.
4. Niners:  the surprise team of the season, SF made a lot of progress under first year HC Jim Harbaugh, none more than a defense that was stifling and led SF to their first NFC West division title since 2002.  This year that defense was led by a smothering run defense that ranked #1 or #2 in the 4 rushing stats I track for this system.
5. Jets: last year’s top defense fell 4 spots in 2011 as the Jets had a disappointing season missing the playoffs following back to back AFC Championship game appearances.  The driver behind their fall was the rushing part of the game on both sides of the ball.  Pass defense wise they were still one of the best units in the NFL led by CB Darrelle Revis.

Top Over-Achievers Record wise

1. Cardinals:  Arizona made headlines this summer signing QB Kevin Kolb along with adding stud CB Patrick Peterson in the draft; all that didn’t lead to much of an improvement performance wise as they only rose from #32 to #27 – but still upped their win total by 3 to 8-8.
2. Titans: surprisingly QB Matt Hasselbeck had a fine season for the Titans, but the disappointing year RB Chris Johnson had following his big contract signing led TEN towards the bottom of the league performance wise.  TEN checked in at #25 but won 9 games – for comparison purposes PHI was #5 but only won 8, and a typical team rated #25 is about 5.5-10.5 – you can see why they are #2 on the list of over-achievers this season.
3. Chiefs:  KC was the darling story of 2010 but things soured very quickly in 2011 following a slow start to the season.  HC Todd Haley was canned late in the season, QB Matt Cassel and RB Jamal Charles went down and KC struggled for most of the season.  KC was #24 performance wise but managed to win 7 games.  Last season KC was #6 and went 10-6.

Top Under-Achievers Record wise

1. Eagles:  the Dream Team as they were coined by backup QB Vince Young prior to the season left many Philly fans angry as the 2011 campaign came to an end.  This despite rating #7 in both offense and defense, and a #5 overall rating.  Outside DAL, the other 9 teams in the top 11 all won double digit games – some of their struggles was due to a tough schedule for sure – as that is a common denominator with DAL as well – but clearly the Birds underachieved this season and are looking forward to a fresh start in 2012.  Urgency from the beginning of the season will be critical.
2. Cowboys:  another NFC East team, DAL checks in at #7 in the ratings sandwiched between two playoff teams SF and ATL – but a tough schedule and critical early season losses including a couple blown 4^th quarter leads came back to haunt DAL this season.  Jason Garrett certainly appears to be learning on the job and DAL fans can only hope his decision making improves in 2012.

That will end the first installment of about five we will put together covering the 2011 NFL Regular Season.  Make sure to stop by the website and check out our NFL plays for the Wild Card Round as we have been profitable the last 6 weeks of the regular season, and look to make it 7 straight starting Saturday with a pair of NFL Wild Card matchups.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012