Thursday, February 2, 2017

2017 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 02/01/17

This is our first installment of bracketology for the 2017 NCAA Tournament and comes as we close out January & get into the meat of the conference schedule!  

Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]

**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI rank shown first [pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown second for each team**

America East: Vermont #52/#68

American Athletic: Cincinnati #17/#16
              Looking Good: SMU #17/#29
                Need Wins:  Houston #34/#60, Memphis #54/#82
- Right now there are 2 locks for the tourney with the possibility of four teams earning a bid.  I feel like at most one of these two will eventually earn a spot with Memphis possibly holding the edge as they already beat Houston in Houston & they have a victory over South Carolina while Houston’s best OOC win is Vermont.

Atlantic Ten: Dayton #15/#30
                Looking Good: VCU #27/#32
                Need Wins: Rhode Island #20/#44
- Like the AAC this conference has two locks for the tourney but really has just one in play for another at-large bid.  URI does have a nice win on their resume over Cincinnati on a neutral court, which is looking better by the day; they already lost at Dayton by 3 but get both Dayton & VCU at home in February – two wins would really help their case.

ACC: North Carolina #5/#6
                Looking Good: Florida State #22/#8, Virginia #9/#12, Louisville #2/#4, Duke #4/#17, Notre Dame #48/#27
                Need Wins: Virginia Tech #75/#38, Wake Forest #37/#31, Clemson #26/#39, Georgia Tech #197/#67, Syracuse #60/#80, Miami #41/#70, NC State #122/#79
- One of the strongest, if not the strongest conference in the country will certainly receive the most bids come Selection Sunday – the question is how many?  Six teams are a lock as of today with SEVEN more teams in the mix for a bid; one certain cut-off point is the need to at least get to 8-10 in conference play (and those teams likely need at least one ACC Tournament win as well – the first round of the ACC Tournament will be enormous for all the bubble teams the conference has).  With all that in mind there is no sense in breaking down all these bubble teams as far as projections go today – above is how I see them on the S-Curve today; let’s revisit in my next few editions.

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast #127/#103

Big 12: Kansas #28/#2
                Looking Good: Baylor #10/#1, West Virginia #7/#25
                Need Wins: Oklahoma State #16/#33, TCU #24/#41, Iowa State #38/#49, Kansas State #39/#51
- This is a clear down year for the Big 12 as a whole as seen with Texas & Oklahoma with triple digit RPI’s.  The four teams listed on the bubble here have A LOT of work to do if they hope to be dancing – we have seen in the past a 10-8 conference record, at a minimum, is what is needed – and this is a down year for the conference so 11-7 may be more accurate.  The problem is if 11-7 is the magic number that leaves just one more conference loss for Oklahoma State, two for TCU & Kansas State and three for Iowa State!  What else is working against these teams is the fact the four bubble teams went a COMBINED 1-16 vs. the RPI Top 25 with the lone win being Kansas State over West Virginia.  You have to think at least one or two of these teams will wind up dancing, but right now it’s tough to make a case for any of them, even projecting forward.  OKST & TCU rate highest in my SBPI that, according to my model, means they have the best chance to win games going forward.

Big East: Villanova #14/#3
                Looking Good: Butler #13/#10, Creighton #73/#13, Xavier #11/#15
                Need Wins: Georgetown #95/#52, Marquette #71/#65, Seton Hall #49/#45, Providence #59/#64
- This is a lock 4 bid league, although Xavier’s seed may be in free-fall following the Sumner injury.  Georgetown has three RPI Top 25 wins and still has their home and home with Villanova to play – a split there would be enormous for them.  The Hoyas also still have their home and home vs. Seton Hall that will be huge for both teams if either could get the sweep.  Marquette picked up a huge resume win over Villanova last week but then went out and lost to St. John’s and Providence – letting a huge opportunity pass them by which may come back to bite them.  Providence is barely hanging on & needs at least a 5-2 close to their regular season to have a shot being that they are 0-6 vs. RPI Top 25.

Big Sky: Weber State #147/#173

Big South: UNC Asheville #64/#91

Big Ten: Wisconsin #8/#21
                Looking Good: Maryland #35/#18, Purdue #31/#28
                Need Wins: Northwestern #57/#35, Minnesota #25/#23, #Michigan State #135/#47, Indiana #51/#74, Michigan #40/#62
- Three locks to be dancing as of today with a fourth, Northwestern, almost a certainty.  The four bubble teams, like many as of today across all conferences, are tough to distinguish between but we have various benchmarks as mentioned above such as a 9-9 mark in conference play for the Big Ten.  That impacts Minnesota the most as they would need to close 6-3 to reach that mark; on the flip side they easily have the best RPI of the four teams so go figure.  We will know more over the next two weeks or so.

Big West: UC Irvine #184/#154

Colonial: UNC Wilmington #46/#36

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee #45/#40 (alive for at-large without conference title)

Horizon: Valparaiso #89/#61

Ivy: Princeton #80/#100

MAAC: Monmouth #102/#58

MAC: Akron #99/#43

MEAC: North Carolina Central #212/#218

Missouri Valley: Illinois State #72/#37

Mountain West: Nevada #50/#42

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s #280/#170

Ohio Valley: Belmont #213/#81

Pac 12: Arizona #12/#5
                Looking Good: Oregon #6/#11, UCLA #115/#22
                Need Wins: USC #44/#24, California #36/#46, Utah #58/#69
- Three locks with three bubble teams; I do not see either of those opinions changing in the next 2-3 weeks.  USC, Cal and Utah still have a lot of work to do while Arizona, Oregon and UCLA are in the field.

Patriot: Bucknell #126/#97

SEC: Kentucky #3/#7
                Looking Good: Florida #1/#9, South Carolina #19/#20
                Need Wins: Arkansas #70/#26, Tennessee #30/#34, Alabama #32/#57, Georgia #101/#50, Vanderbilt #67/#48, Ole Miss #87/#63, Auburn #97/#73
- Seven bubble teams is too many, however, in a year where outside bid-stealing situation there do not appear to be ANY mid-major conferences (outside the WCC) that will get an at-large bid many questionable major conference teams will earn bids.  Arkansas is very close to securing their spot; Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia are roughly in the same boat while the last three are in a boat further behind.  None of these teams, including Arkansas, has more than 2 RPI Top 50 wins – whoever changes that record for the better will be well positioned to earn their way into the dance.

Southern: East Tennessee State #63/#87

Southland: Sam Houston State #104/#127

SWAC: Texas Southern #228/#119

Summit: North Dakota State #150/#89

Sun Belt: UT Arlington #90/#66

West Coast: Gonzaga #29/#14
            Looking Good: St. Mary’s #23/#19

WAC: New Mexico State #55/#54

FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 19

Currently I project 51 of the 68 bids are earned.  

NEED WINS: 33

As of this moment we have 33 teams battling for those last 17 bids that remain “open”

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves; as of now I only see THREE teams that could fit that profile, much smaller sample than prior years (Middle Tennessee, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s).



Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2017


Wednesday, December 14, 2016

NCAA FOOTBALL 2016: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] before Bowl Season

Here is the seventh CFB SBPI installment of the 2016 season!  To read more about how I calculate my ratings look back at this entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are ALL 128 teams in the FCS ranked through regular season action.  The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also included Sagarin’s rankings which can be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
13
0
SEC
Alabama
6
1
1
1
306.9
1
11
1
B10
Ohio State
5
4
2
2
305.0
2
12
1
P12
Washington
3
6
3
4
283.9
3
12
1
ACC
Clemson
14
3
4
5
280.4
4
10
2
B10
Michigan
15
5
5
3
279.6
5
10
3
P12
Colorado
34
9
8
10
263.5
6
10
3
B10
Wisconsin
65
2
11
8
259.8
7
9
3
P12
USC
7
37
17
7
250.0
8
9
3
ACC
Florida State
16
24
16
11
249.0
9
7
4
SEC
LSU
51
10
18
12
248.7
10
9
4
ACC
Virginia Tech
25
13
10
24
245.3
11
8
4
SEC
Auburn
41
17
20
14
236.6
12
9
3
ACC
Louisville
16
18
11
16
232.7
13
11
2
B10
Penn State
45
22
22
6
229.6
14
13
0
MAC
Western Michigan
1
27
6
15
215.5
15
9
3
AAC
Houston
38
16
19
25
214.4
16
10
3
AAC
Temple
42
11
15
21
213.6
17
10
2
B12
Oklahoma
2
86
26
9
213.4
18
10
2
B12
West Virginia
12
52
24
22
212.0
19
8
4
ACC
Pittsburgh
8
70
31
29
210.4
20
8
4
SEC
Florida
100
6
27
30
209.2
21
9
3
SB
Appalachian State
30
8
7
48
208.2
22
8
4
ACC
Miami (Florida)
51
35
27
20
205.0
23
10
3
MWC
San Diego State
26
14
11
54
204.6
24
8
4
P12
Utah
55
37
37
28
204.2
25
6
6
ACC
North Carolina State
60
31
34
42
203.1
26
9
3
B10
Nebraska
73
22
34
33
202.9
27
9
3
P12
Stanford
77
32
45
17
202.3
28
8
4
P12
Washington State
20
59
39
13
202.0
29
10
3
CUSA
Western Kentucky
9
20
8
37
200.4
30
7
5
SEC
Georgia
78
25
39
50
194.1
31
8
4
IND
BYU
59
29
27
31
194.0
32
8
4
ACC
North Carolina
29
59
45
36
193.2
33
7
5
SEC
Arkansas
35
59
52
43
190.2
34
9
3
SB
Troy
26
15
14
73
189.8
35
8
4
B10
Iowa
81
32
54
18
188.8
36
10
2
MWC
Boise State
22
51
34
34
188.7
37
7
5
MWC
Colorado State
9
68
31
49
187.3
38
9
3
B12
Oklahoma State
19
70
41
19
187.0
39
4
8
SEC
Missouri
26
74
50
79
182.9
40
9
3
AAC
Tulsa
22
50
31
32
182.9
41
8
4
SEC
Texas A&M
50
52
54
26
182.8
42
6
6
B12
Baylor
35
55
45
71
182.7
43
8
4
SEC
Tennessee
42
63
58
38
181.4
44
8
4
B12
Kansas State
57
47
52
23
180.9
45
9
3
MWC
Air Force
35
39
25
55
178.3
46
7
5
IND
Army
71
11
21
85
177.9
47
9
3
MAC
Toledo
4
63
23
45
177.7
48
10
2
AAC
South Florida
11
91
41
27
176.7
49
6
6
B10
Indiana
86
29
56
58
176.3
50
8
4
B10
Minnesota
88
32
59
35
176.0
51
6
6
B10
Northwestern
88
42
63
41
175.4
52
4
8
IND
Notre Dame
48
70
61
53
174.1
53
4
8
P12
UCLA
113
26
71
60
173.8
54
8
4
AAC
Memphis
32
74
56
39
170.6
55
8
4
ACC
Georgia Tech
51
78
64
40
168.9
56
3
9
B10
Michigan State
76
63
77
67
167.8
57
5
7
SEC
Mississippi State
38
103
71
46
164.6
58
4
8
P12
Oregon
20
124
80
62
164.6
59
5
7
B12
Texas
51
88
67
63
164.3
60
6
6
B12
TCU
74
57
67
44
163.6
61
5
7
SEC
Mississippi
62
95
80
57
163.5
62
6
6
CUSA
Southern Mississippi
47
42
37
97
160.9
63
8
5
MWC
Wyoming
30
90
60
65
160.5
64
8
5
CUSA
Louisiana Tech
13
86
41
69
158.3
65
9
3
CUSA
Old Dominion
24
47
27
77
157.6
66
6
6
AAC
UCF
113
19
65
56
156.1
67
6
6
ACC
Boston College
119
20
75
75
153.4
68
8
4
CUSA
Middle Tennessee
18
78
41
93
152.6
69
4
8
ACC
Duke
85
63
84
80
152.5
70
6
6
MAC
Miami (Ohio)
68
40
48
91
152.0
71
7
5
SB
Arkansas State
81
27
49
72
151.7
72
4
8
AAC
Tulane
104
44
75
90
149.8
73
5
7
P12
California
38
123
89
51
148.7
74
8
5
MAC
Ohio
71
44
50
84
147.8
75
4
8
P12
Oregon State
98
74
96
61
145.4
76
7
5
SEC
Kentucky
65
100
86
59
142.9
77
5
7
AAC
SMU
80
85
87
82
142.7
78
9
4
AAC
Navy
42
114
85
47
142.0
79
5
7
SB
Georgia Southern
68
63
67
100
141.7
80
8
4
MWC
New Mexico
45
82
62
68
141.6
81
5
7
MAC
Northern Illinois
57
88
71
87
140.1
82
6
6
ACC
Wake Forest
120
36
87
74
139.4
83
6
6
MAC
Central Michigan
78
56
70
94
138.8
84
5
7
B12
Texas Tech
32
127
91
66
138.0
85
6
6
B10
Maryland
94
78
93
64
137.8
86
7
5
MAC
Eastern Michigan
48
93
71
95
136.6
87
6
6
CUSA
UTSA
62
59
65
88
136.4
88
3
9
B12
Iowa State
60
117
97
70
135.4
89
3
9
AAC
East Carolina
65
110
91
101
135.2
90
6
6
SB
Louisiana-Lafayette
100
46
77
92
131.1
91
6
6
SEC
Vanderbilt
106
81
102
52
129.3
92
3
9
MWC
Utah State
109
70
99
99
125.1
93
4
8
ACC
Syracuse
84
111
107
81
124.7
94
6
6
SEC
South Carolina
110
74
103
78
123.4
95
5
7
MWC
Nevada
55
105
80
105
122.8
96
3
9
B10
Illinois
121
57
108
89
122.5
97
4
8
MAC
Ball State
62
98
83
109
122.4
98
6
6
SB
South Alabama
94
52
79
104
121.7
99
4
8
MWC
UNLV
75
100
89
113
121.4
100
4
8
MWC
San Jose State
88
95
99
108
118.1
101
4
8
AAC
Cincinnati
110
82
105
98
118.0
102
3
9
SB
Georgia State
122
40
93
114
117.5
103
5
7
P12
Arizona State
108
106
109
76
115.9
104
3
9
MAC
Kent State
116
47
98
118
111.7
105
8
4
SB
Idaho
81
92
93
86
111.6
106
3
9
P12
Arizona
98
124
121
83
104.4
107
3
9
B10
Purdue
112
109
118
103
101.7
108
4
8
CUSA
UTEP
68
115
99
123
100.6
109
4
8
CUSA
Charlotte
100
93
104
120
99.3
110
3
9
CUSA
Marshall
92
107
106
121
98.2
111
2
10
ACC
Virginia
118
103
119
96
97.7
112
3
8
SB
New Mexico State
86
121
112
122
94.9
113
6
7
MWC
Hawai'i
94
117
112
102
94.2
114
2
10
B10
Rutgers
126
98
126
111
93.9
115
5
7
MAC
Akron
92
115
109
110
93.9
116
2
10
B12
Kansas
124
100
125
107
92.8
117
5
7
CUSA
North Texas
122
68
109
115
92.0
118
4
8
CUSA
Florida International
104
112
115
112
87.9
119
4
8
MAC
Bowling Green
103
117
117
106
87.8
120
3
9
AAC
Connecticut
127
82
123
116
87.7
121
3
9
CUSA
Rice
88
121
114
125
87.5
122
2
10
MAC
Buffalo
116
95
116
127
85.6
123
2
10
IND
Massachusetts
113
112
124
117
85.5
124
4
8
SB
Louisiana-Monroe
106
120
121
119
84.3
125
3
9
CUSA
Florida Atlantic
97
124
119
124
79.1
126
1
11
MWC
Fresno State
125
107
127
126
72.4
127
2
10
SB
Texas State
128
128
128
128
40.0
128

Currently there is a 82.7% correlation between the SBPI ratings and team records.



Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss



COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2016