Here is my initial CFB SBPI of the 2015 season. As a refresher on how I calculate my rating: first
the SBPI grades team performance on both offense & defense in 15 statistics
(these have been independently tested & deemed to be most relevant to team
success) on a scale of 0 to 20 (based on how other teams have performed in those
areas over the last 10 years) to arrive at a rating of 0-300 (maximum rating
would be earning a grade of 20 in each of the 15 statistics). Next, that “raw rating” is adjusted for
strength of schedule (SOS) based on Jeff Sagarin’s work leaving an SBPI
Rating. The final step, which remains
for my eyes only because it is a vital piece of my handicapping process weekly,
is sliding those ratings into a “power rating” matrix which provides me the
information needed to compare my lines vs. Vegas’ lines in hopes of finding an
edge. Although you cannot see that last
step viewing the “rating” column below shows the strength of each team, and can
be compared to my Top
30 teams over last six seasons according to SBPI to gauge how strong each
team is playing to date in 2015. For
example the current top team this season is Alabama with a rating of 281.3;
that would slot them as the 9th best team over the last seven
seasons (2015 is the 7th season).
Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through
action on Saturday October 3. The
columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team checks in statistically in
each; we also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s
rankings (only if they ranked inside the Top 25 of each) which can all be used
as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:
|
UNIT RANKS RAW
|
RANKS
|
SOS ADJ #'s
|
|||||||||
|
Team
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
TOTAL
|
AP
|
USAT
|
FPI
|
SAG
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
||
|
Alabama
|
39
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
10
|
4
|
1
|
281.3
|
1
|
||
|
Stanford
|
5
|
44
|
13
|
16
|
18
|
11
|
4
|
271.7
|
2
|
||
|
Clemson
|
36
|
2
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
13
|
8
|
265.1
|
3
|
||
|
Iowa
|
23
|
12
|
6
|
22
|
23
|
38
|
23
|
261.3
|
4
|
||
|
Georgia
|
16
|
9
|
2
|
19
|
16
|
12
|
13
|
252.2
|
5
|
||
|
Notre Dame
|
9
|
36
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
10
|
14
|
250.0
|
6
|
||
|
Florida
|
36
|
16
|
16
|
11
|
12
|
14
|
15
|
248.4
|
7
|
||
|
Boise State
|
31
|
5
|
4
|
25
|
24
|
21
|
18
|
243.3
|
8
|
||
|
West Virginia
|
12
|
20
|
8
|
34
|
28
|
16
|
19
|
242.2
|
9
|
||
|
Arkansas
|
5
|
83
|
35
|
23
|
39
|
238.1
|
10
|
||||
|
Georgia Tech
|
29
|
34
|
20
|
22
|
26
|
236.4
|
11
|
||||
|
TCU
|
1
|
53
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
233.9
|
12
|
||
|
Pittsburgh
|
85
|
2
|
29
|
42
|
36
|
231.6
|
13
|
||||
|
Oklahoma
|
39
|
29
|
23
|
10
|
9
|
6
|
5
|
231.3
|
14
|
||
|
Texas A&M
|
13
|
60
|
22
|
9
|
11
|
7
|
12
|
229.6
|
15
|
||
|
Michigan
|
85
|
1
|
27
|
18
|
21
|
20
|
7
|
227.1
|
16
|
||
|
California
|
7
|
30
|
11
|
23
|
22
|
28
|
30
|
226.3
|
17
|
||
|
Utah
|
19
|
71
|
39
|
5
|
7
|
19
|
10
|
225.3
|
18
|
||
|
LSU
|
56
|
26
|
32
|
7
|
5
|
9
|
17
|
225.0
|
19
|
||
|
USC
|
11
|
64
|
25
|
17
|
17
|
2
|
2
|
223.5
|
20
|
||
|
Houston
|
2
|
38
|
3
|
28
|
35
|
57
|
44
|
223.4
|
21
|
||
|
Oklahoma State
|
34
|
16
|
15
|
21
|
19
|
26
|
24
|
223.4
|
22
|
||
|
Wisconsin
|
50
|
6
|
11
|
38
|
30
|
21
|
223.0
|
23
|
|||
|
North Carolina State
|
14
|
8
|
1
|
32
|
37
|
221.4
|
24
|
||||
|
Mississippi
|
24
|
60
|
32
|
|
14
|
13
|
5
|
9
|
|
218.6
|
25
|
Breakdown of Top
25 by conference:
|
AAC
|
1
|
|
ACC
|
4
|
|
B10
|
3
|
|
B12
|
4
|
|
CUSA
|
0
|
|
IND
|
1
|
|
MAC
|
0
|
|
MWC
|
1
|
|
P12
|
4
|
|
SEC
|
7
|
|
SUN
|
0
|
Here are an
additional few teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25:
#26 Michigan State
#27 Florida State
#30 Ohio State
#31 Northwestern
#39 UCLA
#54 Baylor
Let’s take a look
at the EIGHT teams whose SBPI rating is higher than their record suggests
(there is a 71% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins); teams listed
below are only teams in SBPI Top 50 with a losing record:
#10 Arkansas 2-3: 4pt loss to #57 Toledo & OT loss to
#15 Texas A&M
#11 Georgia Tech 2-3: road losses to #6 Notre Dame & #29
Duke; also lost to #32 North Carolina
#28 Middle Tennessee State 2-3: lost at #1 Alabama, at #38
Illinois & vs. #35 Vanderbilt
#35 Vanderbilt 2-3: losses include vs. #5 Georgia & at
#25 Ole Miss
#36 Virginia Tech 2-3: losses include vs. #30 Ohio State
& #13 Pittsburgh
#37 Tennessee 2-3: 2OT loss vs. #14 Oklahoma, 1pt loss @ #7
Florida, 4pt loss vs. #10 Arkansas
#43 Nebraska 2-3: 5pt loss on Hail Mary vs. #41 BYU, OT loss
@ #52 Miami, Fla & last second loss @ #38 Illinois
#48 Louisville 2-3: 3pt losses to #21 Houston & #3
Clemson
Here are the five
lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:
#115 South Alabama 3-2
#104 New Mexico 3-2
#101 Marshall 4-1
#91 Georgia Southern 4-1
#87 Southern Mississippi 3-2
Strength of each
conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:
|
SEC
|
82.52
|
|
ACC
|
81.07
|
|
IND
|
80.79
|
|
P12
|
79.31
|
|
B10
|
78.41
|
|
B12
|
77.99
|
|
AAC
|
72.98
|
|
MAC
|
72.33
|
|
MWC
|
71.69
|
|
CUSA
|
68.23
|
|
SUN
|
65.14
|
For example, using
data above, the SEC’s average team is ranked 32nd in country (82.52
is just behind #31 Northwestern’s 82.69 rating
Next up let’s look
at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):
|
UNIT RANKS RAW
|
RANKS
|
SOS ADJ #'s
|
|||||||||
|
Team
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
TOTAL
|
AP
|
USAT
|
FPI
|
SAG
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
||
|
Boise State
|
31
|
5
|
4
|
25
|
24
|
21
|
18
|
243.3
|
8
|
||
|
Houston
|
2
|
38
|
3
|
28
|
35
|
57
|
44
|
223.4
|
21
|
||
|
Middle Tennessee
|
26
|
28
|
18
|
215.7
|
28
|
||||||
|
Air Force
|
52
|
40
|
39
|
206.3
|
34
|
||||||
|
BYU
|
97
|
47
|
75
|
199.8
|
41
|
||||||
|
Ohio
|
39
|
34
|
27
|
192.1
|
44
|
||||||
|
Memphis
|
3
|
86
|
29
|
25
|
191.6
|
46
|
|||||
|
Central Michigan
|
76
|
49
|
60
|
190.2
|
50
|
||||||
|
San Jose State
|
43
|
64
|
50
|
189.5
|
51
|
||||||
|
Louisiana Tech
|
16
|
70
|
37
|
188.4
|
53
|
||||||
Lastly here are
the Bottom 10 teams:
|
UNIT RANKS RAW
|
RANKS
|
SOS ADJ #'s
|
|||||||||
|
Team
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
TOTAL
|
AP
|
USAT
|
FPI
|
SAG
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
||
|
UTEP
|
103
|
109
|
115
|
91.7
|
119
|
||||||
|
Kansas
|
99
|
123
|
122
|
89.7
|
120
|
||||||
|
Troy
|
124
|
102
|
119
|
89.1
|
121
|
||||||
|
Old Dominion
|
121
|
100
|
118
|
85.6
|
122
|
||||||
|
Idaho
|
109
|
123
|
125
|
79.5
|
123
|
||||||
|
Miami (Ohio)
|
125
|
111
|
125
|
78.6
|
124
|
||||||
|
UCF
|
127
|
95
|
124
|
78.1
|
125
|
||||||
|
Hawai'i
|
128
|
100
|
127
|
75.6
|
126
|
||||||
|
New Mexico State
|
85
|
125
|
120
|
73.0
|
127
|
||||||
|
North Texas
|
119
|
125
|
128
|
62.0
|
128
|
||||||
For each of comparison
I have adjusted “SAG” ranks to just show FBS/1A teams
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
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