Tuesday, October 13, 2015

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: Week Six Review According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the second CFB SBPI installment of the 2015 season.  To read more about how I calculate my ratings look back at last week's entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through action on Saturday October 10.  The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
AP
USAT
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
Clemson
24
9
3
5
6
10
5
272.2
1
Alabama
43
5
7
10
9
3
1
267.6
2
Stanford
5
35
7
15
16
14
7
264.3
3
Florida
49
7
12
8
11
13
9
254.7
4
Iowa
22
17
4
17
17
41
26
252.2
5
West Virginia
19
19
5
38
22
27
249.0
6
Boise State
24
3
2
21
20
17
11
247.9
7
Notre Dame
7
41
14
14
13
8
12
247.0
8
TCU
2
46
6
3
3
2
4
246.4
9
Michigan
84
1
20

12
14
15
3

237.9
10
Georgia
29
26
16
30
28
12
19
232.7
11
California
16
40
22
23
23
25
23
232.6
12
Arkansas
16
79
41
24
38
231.0
13
Florida State
15
26
10
11
8
19
17
230.7
14
Pittsburgh
82
4
24
47
41
229.9
15
USC
20
48
30
33
35
5
6
229.1
16
Texas A&M
10
52
26
9
10
6
13
227.7
17
Georgia Tech
35
51
37
23
32
227.2
18
Utah
20
65
35
4
7
20
8
226.8
19
Wisconsin
57
7
14
31
30
22
225.0
20
LSU
39
29
24
6
5
7
16
224.6
21
Oklahoma State
49
25
27
16
15
21
18
220.1
22
Virginia Tech
57
33
35
32
44
211.6
23
Tennessee
32
72
49
42
16
24
211.1
24
Ohio State
53
21
22

1
1
9
14

209.2
25


Breakdown of Top 25 by conference:
AAC
0
ACC
5
B10
4
B12
3
CUSA
0
IND
1
MAC
0
MWC
1
P12
4
SEC
7
SUN
0

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other four sources I use for comparative purposes:
#26 Duke (#25 AP, #24 USAT)
#28 Washington (#20 SAG)
#29 Ole Miss (#13 AP, #12 USAT, #4 FPI, #10 SAG)
#30 UCLA (#18 AP, #18 USAT, #18 FPI, #21 SAG)
#31 Northwestern (#20 AP, #21 USAT)
#33 Oklahoma (#19 AP, #19 USAT, #11 FPI, #15 SAG)
#35 Michigan State (#7 AP, #4 USAT)
#36 Baylor (#2 AP, #2 USAT, #1 FPI, #2 SAG)
#40 Houston (#24 AP)
#46 Memphis (#22 USAT)
#51 Kansas State (#25 SAG)
#56 Toledo (#22 AP, #25 USAT)

Let’s take a look at the relationship between SBPI & record in matrix form (there is a 71% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins):
Record
Top 25
Top 36
Top 50
6-0
5
6
6
5-0
5
6
9
5-1
5
8
9
4-1
2
5
5
4-2
2
4
6
3-2
2
3
5
3-3
2
2
3
2-3
3
2-4
2
2
4

So of the Top 25 SBPI teams 10 are undefeated, 15 have at worst one loss & just 2 are under .500 (Arkansas & Georgia Tech); those two teams have played the 2nd & 7th toughest schedules in the country, respectively, which boosts their rating – if we remove SOS & simply judge strength on performance Arkansas is 41st & Georgia Tech is 37th (3rd numerical column in first matrix).  Of the SBPI Top 50 almost half (24) of the group has a record of 6-0, 5-0 or 5-1 while 29 of the 50 have 0 or 1 losses.  The SBPI, and looking at it in this sort of breakdown, can add value by seeing which teams have suffered perhaps from “bad luck” so far [playing better football than their record indicates], or teams that may have been “lucky” this year [rating lower on the SBPI scale than their record suggests]. 

Here are the five lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:
#110 South Alabama 3-2
#97 Marshall 5-1
#96 Tulsa 3-2
#95 Washington State 3-2
#91 Georgia Southern 4-1

Strength of each conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:
SEC
81.46
ACC
80.16
IND
80.09
P12
79.68
B10
78.22
B12
77.32
AAC
72.74
MWC
71.42
MAC
71.37
CUSA
67.68
SUN
64.39


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
AP
USAT
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
Boise State
24
3
2
21
20
17
11
247.9
7
BYU
83
55
71
201.4
38
Temple
66
9
18
198.8
39
Houston
3
44
7
24
198.4
40
South Florida
56
41
40
192.5
43
Ohio
40
22
17
192.2
44
Memphis
4
81
31
22
191.0
46
Utah State
102
11
45
190.8
47
Middle Tennessee
30
74
48
189.7
48
Air Force
49
32
32
187.7
50

Here are the Bottom 10 teams:
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
AP
USAT
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
Troy
126
102
120
84.6
119
Fresno State
118
117
122
81.1
120
Georgia State
90
119
112
80.3
121
Idaho
108
121
120
78.6
122
Miami (Ohio)
125
107
122
77.0
123
Kansas
113
125
126
73.6
124
UCF
127
98
124
70.1
125
Hawai'i
128
100
127
67.3
126
New Mexico State
103
126
125
66.0
127
North Texas
121
126
128
50.5
128

New analysis for this week per a request is showing the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
AP
USAT
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
South Carolina
97
111
109
123.0
104
Virginia
104
112
113
119.3
105
Maryland
114
106
114
107.1
109
Purdue
120
94
114
99.3
115
Kansas
113
125
126
73.6
124

No wonder Steve Spurrier decided to hang up the ole visor for now down at South Carolina!


Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015

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