Thursday, October 15, 2015

NCAAF 2015: BIG 12 & CONFERENCE USA BREAKDOWN THROUGH WEEK SIX

Once per week I will be taking a deeper dive on two conferences using my SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) as a basis.

In the second installment I will be breaking down the Big 12 & CUSA conferences; the Big 12 as a whole ranks 6th (worst of the Power 5 conferences & lower than the Independents too) according to SBPI while CUSA checks in at 10th which is the 2nd worst conference ranking in the country only ahead of the Sun Belt.

Let’s start with the Big 12 (teams sorted based on strength/rank):

RECORDS
Team
SBPI
Rank
Overall
Conf
WEST VIRGINIA
249.0
6
3-2
0-2
TCU
246.4
9
6-0
3-0
OKLAHOMA STATE
220.1
22
6-0
3-0
OKLAHOMA
203.2
33
4-1
1-1
BAYLOR
202.9
36
5-0
2-0
KANSAS STATE
185.8
51
3-2
0-2
TEXAS TECH
171.1
67
4-2
1-2
IOWA STATE
145.9
89
2-3
1-1
TEXAS
128.7
99
2-4
1-2
KANSAS
73.6
124
0-5
0-2


The Big 12 basically has four tiers of teams according to current SBPI rankings:
·      Tier One: West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma & Baylor
·      Tier Two: Kansas State & Texas Tech
·      Tier Three: Iowa State & Texas
·      Tier Four: Kansas

Their tier analysis isn’t as clear cut compared to some other conferences we have seen but I think many believe the winner of the conference will be one of the five teams in Tier One – whoever that may be.

Taking my analysis a step further I have input my current SBPI POWER RATING (not shown here but correlates directly to the SBPI rating shown above) & played out the season for each team – the margin my SBPI POWER RATING calculates directly relates to an estimated “win percentage” for each game.  Based on those calculations here are the projected end of year standings (sorted by same method above, SBPI rating which shows the impact SOS & YTD record has):

PROJECTION
OVERALL
CONFERENCE
Team
WINS
LOSSES
WINS
LOSSES
WEST VIRGINIA
8.7
3.3
5.7
3.3
TCU
10.4
1.6
7.4
1.6
OKLAHOMA STATE
10.3
1.7
7.3
1.7
OKLAHOMA
8.2
3.8
5.2
3.8
BAYLOR
8.7
3.3
5.7
3.3
KANSAS STATE
7.2
4.8
4.2
4.8
TEXAS TECH
6.6
5.4
3.6
5.4
IOWA STATE
3.4
8.6
2.4
6.6
TEXAS
3.8
8.2
2.8
6.2
KANSAS
0.2
11.8
0.2
8.8

We see despite West Virginia rating favorably in the SBPI currently they are projected to finish 4th in the conference (rounding to second decimal place has OU at 5.74 wins vs. West Virginia at 5.71).

Let’s look at that matrix now sorted by the final conference standings:

PROJECTION
OVERALL
CONFERENCE
Team
WINS
LOSSES
WINS
LOSSES
TCU
10.4
1.6
7.4
1.6
OKLAHOMA STATE
10.3
1.7
7.3
1.7
BAYLOR
8.7
3.3
5.7
3.3
WEST VIRGINIA
8.7
3.3
5.7
3.3
OKLAHOMA
8.2
3.8
5.2
3.8
KANSAS STATE
7.2
4.8
4.2
4.8
TEXAS TECH
6.6
5.4
3.6
5.4
TEXAS
3.8
8.2
2.8
6.2
IOWA STATE
3.4
8.6
2.4
6.6
KANSAS
0.2
11.8
0.2
8.8

TCU is our projected Big 12 winner narrowly edging out Oklahoma State by 0.13 wins.  Prior to the season we projected Oklahoma State as a surprise Big 12 winner largely based on their schedule where they face TCU, Baylor & Oklahoma at home.  The conference champion will be determined in November when the main combatants face off against each other in a round robin – it’s very interesting almost all these games take place in the month of November, making next month must watch TV in the Big 12.  Oklahoma State has just two remaining road games: Texas Tech (perhaps a tougher test than many expected during the summer) & Iowa State (which the Cowboys know all to well about how tough the trip to Ames can be: see the 2011 loss when OKST was ranked #2 in country; also this year’s trip to ISU comes between hosting TCU & Baylor – can you say sandwich?); if the ‘Boys can get through those two games without a loss it’s all there for their taking.  TCU, the current projected winner, also has a trip to Ames (up next) along with road games at Oklahoma State & Oklahoma, neither of which will be easy.  Baylor is probably surprising to many, projecting them in 3rd place with three losses & well behind the top two – so let’s take a more detailed look at the Bears.  Baylor still has road games against Kansas State (never ever easy, ask TCU), Oklahoma State & a revenge-minded TCU – multiple losses there is likely in my opinion (the SBPI model projects their record for those three games as 0.95-2.05, or 1-2 rounded); toss in home games against WVU, OU & Texas and their schedule is not easy, especially with a defense that ranks in the bottom half of FBS football (yes they have put up insane numbers offensively but to date they have faced the 117th ranked schedule in FBS – very easy to date so how will they respond when the opponents get A LOT tougher in conference play?).  For those reasons I do not see Baylor being a legitimate threat to win the conference despite many (all?) of my peers having the Bears ranked in the top handful of teams currently.

According to my analysis here I project the 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs to win the Big 12 – but if it plays out like that, and a 2 loss team wins the conference (which is entirely possible with the strength of teams at the top and tough obscure road games outside Kansas) they will likely be left out of the CFB Playoff once again, even in a year where a 2 loss team has a very good shot at making it.


Next up let’s move to Conference USA and start with the “stronger” of the two divisions: the seven team East which is ranked 14th of the 16 divisions in FBS football (teams sorted based on strength/rank):

RECORDS
Team
SBPI
Rank
Overall
Conf
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
189.7
48
2-4
1-1
WESTERN KENTUCKY
168.5
68
5-1
3-0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
149.5
87
3-3
1-1
MARSHALL
130.6
97
5-1
2-0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
126.8
101
1-4
1-1
CHARLOTTE
103.1
113
2-3
0-2
OLD DOMINION
85.0
118
2-3
0-1


The CUSA East can be broken into three tiers according to current SBPI ratings:
·      Tier One: Middle Tennessee & Western Kentucky
·      Tier Two: Florida International (FIU), Marshall, Florida Atlantic (FAU)
·      Tier Three: Charlotte, Old Dominion

Here are the projected standings derived from following same procedure discussed above (sorted based on SBPI rank):

PROJECTION
OVERALL
CONFERENCE
Team
WINS
LOSSES
WINS
LOSSES
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
6.6
5.4
5.6
2.4
WESTERN KENTUCKY
9.0
3.0
6.9
1.1
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
6.4
5.6
4.4
3.6
MARSHALL
7.7
4.3
4.7
3.3
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
3.6
8.4
3.6
4.4
CHARLOTTE
4.3
7.7
2.2
5.8
OLD DOMINION
3.9
8.1
1.9
6.1

Similar to the Big 12 we can see the impact SOS has on the projected standings; Middle Tennessee is currently ranked as the best team in this conference however they also are forecasted to finish in 2nd place in their division & with the 3rd highest win total in their conference – showing how key SOS is, as we all know but it’s also interesting to see that phenomenon layered into a quantitative analysis.

With that in mind let’s now look at that matrix sorted by the final division standings:

PROJECTION
OVERALL
CONFERENCE
Team
WINS
LOSSES
WINS
LOSSES
WESTERN KENTUCKY
9.0
3.0
6.9
1.1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
6.6
5.4
5.6
2.4
MARSHALL
7.7
4.3
4.7
3.3
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
6.4
5.6
4.4
3.6
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
3.6
8.4
3.6
4.4
CHARLOTTE
4.3
7.7
2.2
5.8
OLD DOMINION
3.9
8.1
1.9
6.1

Our projected winner of the East is Western Kentucky; a team that many college football fans would likely agree appears to be the best team in this division & likely the best team in the conference as a whole.  WKU blew out MTSU last week 58-28 exposing the one blatant weakness of the Blue Raiders – their pass defense.  That result further supports the idea they are in fact the best team in this division, while for MTSU is was partially the fact it was a terrible matchup for them.  WKU has three remaining road games on their conference slate: North Texas (the worst team in FBS football according to SBPI), Old Dominion (ranked 118th in FBS and the worst team in this division) & Florida International – which is a big reason it’s unlikely they are caught & likely make their first appearance in the CUSA Championship Game.


Shifting to the weakest division in FBS football, the West division of Conference USA, here is a matrix breakdown of those six teams:

RECORDS
Team
SBPI
Rank
Overall
Conf
LOUISIANA TECH
185.3
53
4-2
2-1
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
150.5
86
3-3
1-1
RICE
130.3
98
3-3
2-1
UTSA
124.7
102
1-5
1-1
UTEP
89.9
117
2-4
0-2
NORTH TEXAS
50.5
128
0-5
0-2

CUSA East tier analysis:
·      Tier One: Louisiana Tech
·      Tier Two: Southern Mississippi, Rice & UTSA
·      Tier Three: UTEP & North Texas

Looking at those SBPI rankings it’s clear why it’s the worst division in college football: no teams ranked in Top 50, just one in the Top 85, and it’s home to the worst team in college football North Texas who was BLOWN OUT AT HOME 66-7 to not Alabama, nor TCU – PORTLAND STATE this past Saturday!  Yikes.

Here are the projected standings derived from following same procedure discussed above (sorted based on SBPI rank):

PROJECTION
OVERALL
CONFERENCE
Team
WINS
LOSSES
WINS
LOSSES
LOUISIANA TECH
8.1
3.9
5.9
2.1
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
6.9
5.1
4.9
3.1
RICE
6.1
5.9
4.6
3.4
UTSA
4.1
7.9
4.1
3.9
UTEP
4.0
8.0
2.0
6.0
NORTH TEXAS
0.6
11.4
0.6
7.4

Based on the SBPI ratings shown in the first matrix of this East division breakdown it comes as no surprise Louisiana Tech is the projected winner; the 1.0 wins margin may seem narrow – however considering they face Southern Mississippi at home in their final game of the regular season there is little to no chance they do not represent the East in the Conference USA Championship Game.

I currently project The CUSA Championship Game to feature 9-3 Western Kentucky vs. 8-4 Louisiana Tech with the winner likely receiving a bid to the Liberty Bowl.  Those teams already played this year, on September 10 (Wk2) with the Hilltoppers coming out a 41-38 winner at home; if the two meet again the game is played at the team with the better conference record (with WKU having the tiebreaker between these two teams due to the head to head win) so it’s likely they would face off again in Bowling Green & I would give the slight edge today to Louisiana Tech as the Bulldogs want revenge for their early season head to head loss & to make up for last year’s tough loss to Marshall in the championship game.


Look forward to any comments or questions.

Be back next week discussing the Big 10 & MAC.


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