Monday, October 19, 2015

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: Week SEVEN Review According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the third CFB SBPI installment of the 2015 season.  To read more about how I calculate my ratings look back at last week's entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through action on Saturday October 17.  The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
AP
USAT
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
Alabama
36
4
2
8
8
3
1
281.0
1
Iowa
18
11
2
12
13
29
15
262.1
2
Clemson
32
7
5
6
6
11
6
257.2
3
Utah
22
34
19
3
7
17
7
250.7
4
Stanford
5
42
17
10
11
10
8
247.7
5
LSU
18
27
15
5
5
7
10
244.9
6
Oklahoma
24
22
15
17
15
4
4
244.4
7
Florida
61
18
22
13
14
12
13
242.7
8
Georgia
41
13
9
31
25
16
11
240.1
9
Notre Dame
8
49
21

11
10
8
9

239.8
10
TCU
2
43
7
4
3
2
3
238.9
11
Boise State
56
5
6
34
41
25
25
238.6
12
California
16
38
19
20
19
24
22
237.1
13
Florida State
10
29
9
9
9
15
12
231.3
14
Arkansas
16
76
40
27
42
228.5
15
West Virginia
20
53
34
26
28
226.7
16
Pittsburgh
67
17
25
25
28
45
35
226.5
17
Michigan
92
1
28
15
17
18
14
226.2
18
Ohio State
36
18
13
1
1
5
5
225.8
19
USC
22
59
36
6
16
224.6
20
Michigan State
28
36
25
7
4
22
20
217.5
21
Wisconsin
65
6
13
34
27
30
21
217.3
22
Oklahoma State
48
20
22
14
12
20
18
216.1
23
Utah State
87
8
32
36
35
53
33
214.9
24
Tennessee
33
67
46



13
23

214.1
25


Breakdown of Top 25 by conference:
AAC
0
ACC
3
B10
5
B12
4
CUSA
0
IND
1
MAC
0
MWC
2
P12
4
SEC
6
SUN
0

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other four sources I use for comparative purposes:
#27 Baylor (#2 AP, #2 USAT, #1 FPI, #2 SAG)
#28 Mississippi State (#21 FPI, #24 SAG)
#32 Houston (#21 AP, #22 USAT)
#33 Ole Miss (#24 AP, #23 USAT, #9 FPI, #19 SAG)
#34 Memphis (#18 AP, #17 USAT)
#36 Texas A&M (#15 AP, #16 USAT, #14 FPI, #17 SAG)
#38 Duke (#23 AP, #21 USAT)
#39 North Carolina (#23 FPI)
#40 UCLA (#19 FPI)
#41 Temple (#22 AP, #24 USAT)
#51 Toledo (#19 AP, #20 USAT)

Let’s take a look at the relationship between SBPI & record in matrix form (currently there is a 77% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins, UP from 71% last week):

# OF SBPI TEAMS WITH RECORDS
Record
Top 25
Top 50
7-0
4
4
6-1
5
9
6-1
3
3
5-1
4
8
5-2
4
8
4-2
1
5
3-3
3
6
3-4
4
2-4
1
2
2-5
1

So of the Top 25 SBPI teams 9 are undefeated, 16 have at worst one loss & just 1 is under .500 Arkansas, who has played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country which boosts their rating – if we remove SOS & simply judge strength on performance Arkansas is 40th (3rd numerical column in first matrix).  Of the SBPI Top 50 almost half (24) of the group has a one or zero losses.  The SBPI, and looking at it in this sort of breakdown, can add value by seeing which teams have suffered perhaps from “bad luck” so far [playing better football than their record indicates], or teams that may have been “lucky” this year [rating lower on the SBPI scale than their record suggests]. 

Here are the five lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:
#105 New Mexico 4-3
#92 Marshall 6-1
#88 Georgia Southern 5-1
#84 Washington State 4-2
#82 Auburn 4-2

Strength of each conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:
SEC
81.42
IND
79.52
ACC
79.46
P12
79.02
B10
78.23
B12
76.70
AAC
72.56
MWC
70.97
MAC
70.61
CUSA
67.13
SUN
64.59


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
MWC
Boise State
56
5
6
25
238.6
12
MWC
Utah State
87
8
32
33
214.9
24
AAC
Houston
3
29
2
41
204.3
32
AAC
Memphis
4
78
30
30
203.6
34
IND
BYU
80
39
55
36
203.0
35
AAC
Temple
69
3
11
50
195.6
41
SB
Appalachian State
7
8
1
62
195.6
42
AAC
South Florida
46
43
42
80
191.1
44
MAC
Central Michigan
48
53
49
81
184.7
49
MAC
Toledo
39
33
27
38
184.0
51

Here are the Bottom 10 teams:
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
SB
Georgia State
90
113
108
122
85.4
119
SB
Louisiana-Monroe
121
111
122
115
83.4
120
SB
Troy
126
85
119
116
82.6
121
MWC
Fresno State
119
117
121
103
82.4
122
CUSA
Old Dominion
119
93
114
120
82.2
123
SB
New Mexico State
101
126
123
127
74.6
124
MAC
Miami (Ohio)
125
113
125
124
67.7
125
AAC
UCF
127
98
125
106
66.5
126
MWC
Hawai'i
128
101
128
104
64.8
127
CUSA
North Texas
112
128
127
126
61.8
128

New analysis per a request is showing the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
P12
Oregon State
110
90
106
83
123.7
99
ACC
Virginia
101
108
108
73
120.6
101
B10
Maryland
113
104
115
78
107.2
109
B10
Purdue
123
90
118
94
98.4
113
B12
Kansas
108
125
123

105

85.8
118



Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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