In my third & final article (7th installment
of World Cup primers as first article had 4 parts & second article had two
parts) prior to the World Cup competition kicking off let’s take a close look
at some of the futures wagers available to us.
Anyone that has followed me for any period of time knows I generally
frown upon future type wagers as there are so many variables that can occur in the
“future” that I feel the prudent sports investor should pass in most instances –
but here for the World Cup it’s a smaller sample size we are playing futures on
(compared to win totals in the four major sports that extend over months of
action where the instances of injury or other variables greatly increases).
Format wise I will break down these wagers according to
Groups – starting with A and ending with H.
I will list teams in order of their current FIFA ranking (which was
released on June 6th and is available to reference in my last
article on the World Cup if necessary).
I also initially wrote down all prices for the futures discussed below
on May 16th along with this morning, and will thus comment where
applicable changes in price.
Group A: Brazil,
Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
“To Win Group”: Brazil is my favorite to win this
tournament so I obviously believe they are going to win their group here. The price of -400 however is the second
highest amongst all the groups, just short of Argentina’s -550 to win Group
F. I very rarely play any money lines
that high, especially on future wagers, but in this instance I feel strongly
Brazil has no trouble in this group.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: Brazil has gone from -1900
to -3500 to reach the knockout stage meaning you would have to lay three
thousand five hundred dollars to win just one hundred on the chance they finish
either 1st or 2nd in the group. I rarely use the term LOCK, but here this
would appear to be one of those rare spots to apply it – however, I would never
recommend a play at that price; plus you do not need a handicapper to tell you
that’s a good play – the odds do it alone.
Croatia & Mexico sit at +115, while Cameroon is the longshot at
+500; all three teams have not seen their odds shift much. Mexico has reached the knockout stage in each
of the last four World Cups, while Croatia has not advanced that far since 1998
– however I feel Croatia is the better team this year, especially with Mexico
struggling. Cameroon has an outside shot
since neither Mexico nor Croatia are juggernauts, but I will pass here.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: similar to the above
breakdown I do not suggest any plays here.
“To Win World Cup”: Brazil currently sits at 3/1 to
win the championship & I do like that play despite the fact there is little
“value” in that price. The shortest
price amongst the other three teams is 130/1 on Mexico – but considering the 2nd
place team is likely to open their knockout stage against Spain there is no
value on any other Group A team.
Group B: Spain,
Chile, Netherlands, Australia
“To Win Group”: right away I would knock Australia
out of any potential future plays here as the only one that would make sense
from a team perspective is “To Not Reach Knockout Stage” – but considering that
price is -2000 to win 100 it’s much too high.
Spain is a small favorite -140 to win this group which I also like – and
would recommend a play on them.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: again like Group A I like
Spain to certainly reach the knockout stage but would not suggest laying -700
to win 100. However, I do see some value
in playing Chile, currently even money to advance to the knockout stage over a
Netherlands team that lost in the final to Spain in the last World Cup.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: tying into my comment
above I do see value in Netherlands here +155 (plus money) to not make it out
of the group stage this year.
“To Win World Cup”: while I do like Spain to go deep
in this tournament (who doesn’t?) I do not think the value is there at +650 for
them to win back to back World Cups. Chile,
at 40/1 odds, does seem attractive as they will be playing on their home
continent, have a lot of support, and are in solid form going 6-2-2 their L10
with a +11 goal differential. However,
when considering the fact they will likely face Brazil in their opening
knockout stage matchup, it’s hard to pull the trigger even at those odds.
Group C: Colombia,
Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
“To Win Group”: Colombia is the favorite to win this
group, however recent injuries in particular to key striker Radamel Falcao
leave their chances in peril. The
longest shot of the group is Greece at +800, and I love a play on them
here. They are a defense first team that
plays with a ton of discipline – which I feel will really stifle both Colombia
& Ivory Coast’s more reckless, offense first game plan. Over the last five World Cups Japan is the
only team in this group that has advanced past the group stage in any World
Cup, but I feel this year they will fall short.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: all four of these teams
come into the World Cup with positive goal differentials in their last ten
games; that being said, with Colombia the biggest favorite to advance at -450,
along with Ivory Coast & Japan also laying money at -110, I would pass with
a play already on Greece to win the group.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: although I am not
bullish on Colombia’s chances in the competition due to injuries &
inexperience (despite their high FIFA ranking) I am also not going to pull the
trigger at +300 that they will not reach the knockout stage, although it
tempted me.
“To Win World Cup”: Colombia sits at 20/1, the clear
favorite amongst the group with the next team Japan checking in at 140/1! Based on the fact the two teams that reach
the knockout stage will likely face some combination of Uruguay, Italy or
England in their opening knockout stage matchup I will pass on any of these
teams having value as far as winning the championship goes.
Group D: Uruguay,
Italy, England, Costa Rica
“To Win Group”: this is clearly the strongest group
top to bottom with an average FIFA ranking of 13.5 & all four teams
settling inside the Top 28. Costa Rica
is the clear longshot of the group, and also the only team heading into this competition
with a negative goal differential over their last ten games. No value here as I could easily see any of
the top 3 teams winning this group – all three have odds between +160 &
+200.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: the three favorites are
all priced -175 to -225, too high for such even teams. It’s also hard to make a case for Costa Rica
as discussed above, even at +1000.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: same comments as above.
“To Win World Cup”: the three favorites all have 25/1
odds to win the World Cup, and frankly the only team I could see winning the championship
is Uruguay as they finished 4th in 2010, are playing on their home continent
this year & perhaps no striker has played better this past season than Luis
Suarez. There is however some concern
about the health of Suarez heading into the competition which combined with the
strength of this group is enough for me to lay off playing anyone from this
group to win the championship.
Group E: Switzerland,
France, Ecuador, Honduras
“To Win Group”: I am not a huge fan of this France
team especially with the recent injury to Franck Ribery, while Switzerland is overrated
sitting at #6 in the FIFA rankings; Ecuador has just 2 wins over their last ten
games but are very explosive offensively, while Honduras has not enjoyed any
success in prior World Cups. Oddly
enough Honduras has been bet to win this group as their odds have dropped from
+3300 to +2000, and with the uncertainty amongst the rest of the teams in this
group they are worth a very small play at long odds. Along with Group C this seems to be the most
wide open. In every World Cup at least
one group is turned upside down, and this may be the group in 2014.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: this is the only group that
doesn’t have a team that reached the knockout stage in the prior World Cup. France is -650, very rich in my opinion for a
team that leaves a lot to be desired; Ecuador & Switzerland are laying
small odds while Honduras is the longshot at +600. Again, like above, I do see some value in
Honduras and would recommend another small play on them here.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: tying into my comment
above I feel France has some value here at +450 to not escape the group stage.
“To Win World Cup”: this group is the least likely to
produce the champion in my opinion, thus no value here.
Group F: Argentina,
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria
“To Win Group”: Argentina is the biggest favorite on
the money in the competition to win their group at -550. I feel they will win this group but feel stronger
about Brazil taking Group A than I do about Argentina taking Group F thus I
will pass.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: again I do not see any
value here as B&H is -140 followed by Nigeria +140; neither has enough
value on the money to warrant a wager, and Iran’s odds at +750 do not tie into
how big a longshot I feel they are to advance.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: same comments as
above, no value here.
“To Win World Cup”: Argentina is the 2nd
favorite (to Brazil) checking in at 4/1 to win the championship – too short
IMO. B&H is next up in this group at
a whopping 210/1 & I see value there as this team could be a solid sleeper –
and the hedging opportunities would start early at those odds so long as they
advanced to the knockout stage. Consider
if they finished 2nd in Group F they would face the winner of Group
E which I do not feel is a strong group; that would be a great opportunity to
reach the QF round where hedging could easily commence, if not sooner.
Group G: Germany,
Portugal, USA, Ghana
“To Win Group”: this is the 2nd strongest
group (only behind Group H) in the competition with Ghana dragging the group’s
overall rating down. Germany is a modest
-175 favorite to win this group, and considering they have reached at least the
semifinal round in each of the last three groups they are certainly worthy of
that distinction. Portugal is next up at
+270, then it’s a big drop-off to USA at +900 & Ghana +1000. Call me crazy but I do see some value in USA
as I just have a hunch Germany is not going to be peaking in the heat of South
America (and you know Klinsmann will have the red, white & blue ready to
face the Germans), they have suffered numerous recent injuries & their
front line is aging. Portugal is
certainly more than formidable, but the US could get the inside track with a
win over Germany. I will roll the dice
on USA at 9/1 odds to win Group G.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: no solid odds here as USA
is just +200 while Ghana, the clear cut 4th best team in this group
in my opinion, sits at +300.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: similar to my comments
in the opening portion of the Group G analysis I feel playing Germany to not
advance at +550 odds is a decent value play as well. In addition, although I do not like laying
big numbers often, playing Ghana here to not advance to the knockout stage at
-400 is worthy of a wager as well.
“To Win World Cup”: I think two teams have value here
and they are Portugal at 30/1 & USA at 200/1. Portugal only lost one game in qualification
& one game over their last 11 including a pounding of Ireland in their last
match prior to the World Cup. USA has
been downplaying their chances the last few months, which is just when teams
typically sneak up and surprise folks.
Plus, again, the hedging opportunities on USA at those long odds could
start early – and considering they would be in the bottom portion of the
bracket if they came in second place (facing teams from Groups E-H) things could
really open up for a deep run with Argentina the only team they would like to
avoid.
Group H: Belgium,
Russia, Algeria, South Korea
“To Win Group”: I am not quite sold on Belgium
despite being a Manchester City fan with Vincent Kompany my favorite
player. They did not qualify for each of
the last two World Cups, and have failed to get past the Round of 16 since at
least 1990. They are the only team
laying odds to win the group checking in at -175; following them is Russia at
+200, the only other team in this group I feel can win it. I am a big fan of an underappreciated Russia
team & like a play on them to win this group even at the short odds.
“To Reach Knockout Stage”: oddly South Korea is the
only team from this group to reach the knockout stage since 2002. The two teams discussed above are big
favorites to advance with the aforementioned South Korea squad up next at a
short price of +180, with Algeria bringing up the rear at +450. No value here.
“To Not Reach Knockout Stage”: considering recent
injuries to the Belgian squad I see value here on them not reaching the
knockout stage at +500. Although I
consider this a three team group as far as who has a chance at legitimately
advancing to the knockout stage, I think 5/1 odds is attractive enough to fade
a banged up and inexperienced Belgium team.
“To Win World Cup”: the only team from this group
whose odds I find attractive is Russia, who checks in at 75/1 odds to win the
championship. Russia has not allowed
more than 1 goal in a match since November of 2012 vs. USA, and has only lost
once in their last ten games. As mentioned
in Group G analysis I like the chances of teams in Groups E-H as they will be
pitted against each other in the knockout stage, and whoever can avoid
Argentina will have value & could make a deep run. Keep in mind the deeper the run, and the
longer the odds the bigger the profit you can lock in from hedging.
That completes our World Cup 2014 Preview articles. I hope I was able to provide valuable
information for your own handicapping efforts, and that you take advantage of
some of my free plays above that you can follow all tournament long.
Remember, if you are interested in my World Cup Package
click my website below. We dominated the
2010 World Cup & expect much of the same this time around.
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