Format of this article so as to flow nicely is we will go group by group - this article will breakdown Groups A, B, C, D while tomorrow's will finish off the final four groups. Each group will have 3 pieces: (1) Final stage of qualification results (2) Last ten match results (3) Analysis. The yellow column "Group w/o Team Avg" is the average FIFA ranking of competition in a team's qualifying group not including their own - to give true strength of their opponents while rank is where that average stacks up against the other World Cup qualifying teams.
I will also put the footnotes right here so the references below are easier to follow.
1 QUALIFIED AUTOMATICALLY
AS HOST NATION
|
2 CAF'S FINAL STAGE OF
QUALIFICATION IS A HOME & HOME VS. ONE OPPONENT
|
3 PLAYOFF VS. ICELAND FOR
BID. 0-0 DRAW AT ICELAND, 2-0 WIN AT
HOME (AGGREGATE 2-0)
|
4 PLAYOFF VS. ROMANIA FOR
BID. 3-1 WIN AT HOME, 1-1 DRAW AT
ROMANIA (AGGREGATE 4-2)
|
5 PLAYOFF VS. UKRAINE FOR
BID. 2-0 LOSS AT UKRAINE, 3-0 WIN AT
HOME (AGGREGATE 3-2)
|
6 PLAYOFF VS. SWEDEN FOR
BID. 1-0 WIN AT HOME, 3-2 WIN AT
SWEDEN (AGGREGATE 4-2)
|
7 INTER-CONTINENTAL
PLAYOFF VS. NEW ZEALAND FOR BID. 5-1
WIN AT HOME, 4-2 WIN AT NEW ZEALAND (AGGREGATE 9-3)
|
8 INTER-CONTINENTAL
PLAYOFF VS. JORDAN FOR BID. 5-0 WIN AT
JORDAN, 0-0 DRAW AT HOME (AGGREGATE 5-0)
|
JUNE 6TH
|
FINAL STAGE OF QUALIFICATION
|
GROUP W/O TM
|
||||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
GF
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
AVG
|
RANK
|
||
GROUP A
|
||||||||||||
BRAZIL 1
|
3
|
CONMEBOL
|
HOST
|
|||||||||
CROATIA 3
|
18
|
UEFA
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
12
|
1.20
|
0.90
|
0.30
|
37.80
|
10
|
|
MEXICO 7
|
20
|
CONCACAF
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
7
|
0.70
|
0.90
|
(0.20)
|
37.20
|
9
|
|
CAMEROON 2
|
56
|
CAF
|
VS. TUNISIA
|
2.00
|
0.50
|
1.50
|
48.00
|
13
|
||||
JUNE 6TH
|
RECENT FORM LAST TEN
GAMES (THRU 6/4)
|
||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
||
GROUP A
|
|||||||||
BRAZIL 1
|
3
|
CONMEBOL
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
32
|
3
|
29
|
|
CROATIA 3
|
18
|
UEFA
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
13
|
12
|
1
|
|
MEXICO 7
|
20
|
CONCACAF
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
24
|
10
|
14
|
|
CAMEROON 2
|
56
|
CAF
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
12
|
13
|
(1)
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
ANALYSIS
|
||
GROUP A
|
||||
BRAZIL 1
|
3
|
CONMEBOL
|
DOMINATING OF LATE, ONLY
LOSS @ SWITZERLAND 0-1 ON 8/14/13.
HAVE NOT YIELDED MORE THAN 1 GOAL SINCE CONFEDERATIONS CUP WIN OVER
ITALY 4-2 ON 6/22/13. THEY HAVE
REACHED THE KNOCKOUT STAGE EVERY WORLD CUP SINCE 1966 & NO QUESTION THAT
STREAK WILL CONTINUE IN 2014 - BUT THEY HAVE MUCH BIGGER GOALS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COMPETITION TAKING PLACE ON THEIR SOIL.
|
|
CROATIA 3
|
18
|
UEFA
|
ONLY KEPT TWO CLEAN
SHEETS OVER L10 GAMES BOTH VS. ICELAND.
ONLY WIN VS. WORLD CUP TM OVER S. KOREA ON 9/10/13. CROATIA HAS ONLY PLAYED ONE 0-0 DRAW SINCE
AT LEAST SUMMER OF 2012 - MEANING OVER PLAYS COULD BE SOLID SELECTIONS
HERE. HAVE NOT ESCAPED GROUP STAGE
SINCE 1998 FRANCE & THAT IS CLEARLY THEIR GOAL HERE - TARGET 2ND PLACE
WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOMPLISHED VS. LESSER TEAMS MEXICO & CAMEROON.
|
|
MEXICO 7
|
20
|
CONCACAF
|
FIRST LOSS OF 2014 VS.
BOS & HERZ 6/3 0-1. ONLY 2 OF L10
GMS SAW COMBINED GOALS LESS THAN 3 (OVER BETS LOOK SOLID PERHAPS DURING WORLD
CUP). NEW COACH MIGUEL HERRARA SEEMS TO
BE GETTING MORE OUT OF EL TRI THAN RECENT PAST MANAGERS, ESPECIALLY
OFFENSIVELY. STRONG RECORD ESCAPING
GROUP PLAY AS THEY HAVE REACHED KNOCKOUT STAGE IN EACH OF LAST 5 WORLD CUPS,
BUT HAVE NOT REACHED QUARTERFINALS SINCE 1986 - THAT'S CLEARLY THE GOAL THIS
YEAR.
|
|
CAMEROON 2
|
56
|
CAF
|
STRUGGLED OF LATE OUTSIDE
HOME WIN OVER TUNISIA 4-1. ONLY FACED
TWO FELLOW WORLD CUP TEAMS: LOST TO PORTUGAL 5-1 ON 3/5/14, TIED GERMANY 2-2
ON 6/1/14. SEEM TO BE LONGSHOT OF
GROUP CONSIDERING THEY HAVE NOT REACHED KNOCKOUT STAGE SINCE 1990 WITH HIGHER
RANKED TEAMS & HAVE NOT FACED STRONG COMPETITION MUCH - AND WHEN THEY DID
IT OFTEN DID NOT TURN OUT WELL.
|
JUNE 6TH
|
FINAL STAGE OF
QUALIFICATION
|
GROUP W/O TM
|
||||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
GF
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
AVG
|
RANK
|
||
GROUP B
|
||||||||||||
SPAIN
|
1
|
UEFA
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
14
|
1.75
|
0.38
|
1.38
|
64.00
|
17
|
|
NETHERLANDS
|
15
|
UEFA
|
9
|
0
|
1
|
34
|
3.40
|
0.50
|
2.90
|
81.80
|
25
|
|
CHILE
|
14
|
CONMEBOL
|
9
|
6
|
1
|
29
|
1.81
|
1.56
|
0.25
|
31.00
|
2
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
62
|
AFC
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
12
|
1.50
|
0.88
|
0.63
|
73.00
|
19
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
RECENT FORM LAST TEN
GAMES (THRU 6/4)
|
||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
||
GROUP B
|
|||||||||
SPAIN
|
1
|
UEFA
|
7
|
2
|
1
|
15
|
8
|
7
|
|
NETHERLANDS
|
15
|
UEFA
|
5
|
1
|
4
|
20
|
8
|
12
|
|
CHILE
|
14
|
CONMEBOL
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
22
|
11
|
11
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
62
|
AFC
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
14
|
24
|
(10)
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
ANALYSIS
|
||
GROUP B
|
||||
SPAIN
|
1
|
UEFA
|
10GMS AGO WAS LOSS AT
BRAZIL IN CONFEDERATIONS CUP FINALE 3-0.
SINCE THEY HAVE SCORED 2 GOALS IN 7 OF 9 & ONLY LOSS WAS 1-0 AT
SOUTH AFRICA. THEY HAVE REACHED THE
KNOCKOUT STAGE IN EVERY WORLD CUP BUT ONE SINCE 1982 (1998 FRANCE) & ARE
CLEARLY THE FAVORITE OF THIS GROUP & TO RETURN TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
AT THE LEAST. KEEP AN EYE ON A VARIETY
OF INJURIES THAT COULD DERAIL THEIR CHANCES.
|
|
NETHERLANDS
|
15
|
UEFA
|
OUTSIDE 8-1 WIN AT HOME
OVER HUNGARY ON 10/11/13 THE DUTCH SCORING MARGIN IS JUST 12-7 (9 GMS). THEY HAVE NOT SCORED MORE THAN 2 GOALS
OUTSIDE AFOREMENTIONED HUNGARY GAME SINCE 6/7/13 VS INDONESIA. JUST 1-1-3 L5 VS. WORLD CUP TEAMS WITH LONE
WIN 1-0 OVER GHANA AT HOME ON 5/31/14.
CONCERN FOR DUTCH IS EVIDENT
|
|
CHILE
|
14
|
CONMEBOL
|
PERHAPS NO TEAM IS MORE
PREPARED FOR THE WORLD CUP AS 7 OF THEIR L10 GMS HAS COME AGAINST WORLD CUP
TEAMS INCLUDING A TIE VS. SPAIN & A PAIR OF 1 GOAL DEFEATS ON ROAD
AGAINST BRAZIL & GERMANY. CHILE
HAS SCORED LESS THAN 2 GOALS JUST TWICE OVER L10 VS. AFOREMENTIONED GERMANY
& BRAZIL. SOLID SLEEPER HERE
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
62
|
AFC
|
OUTSIDE PAIR OF 6-0 ROAD
LOSSES TO FRANCE & BRAZIL THEY ARE NEAR LEVEL IN RECORD & GD. THEIR ONLY 3 WINS CAME WHEN THEY PITCHED
SHUTOUT. LONGSHOT OF GROUP FOR
CERTAIN, PERHAPS OF ENTIRE TOURNAMENT DESPITE ESCAPING GROUP STAGE IN 2006
|
JUNE 6TH
|
FINAL STAGE OF
QUALIFICATION
|
GROUP W/O TM
|
||||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
GF
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
AVG
|
RANK
|
||
GROUP C
|
||||||||||||
COLOMBIA
|
8
|
CONMEBOL
|
9
|
4
|
3
|
27
|
1.69
|
0.81
|
0.88
|
31.75
|
3
|
|
GREECE 4
|
12
|
UEFA
|
8
|
1
|
1
|
12
|
1.20
|
0.40
|
0.80
|
89.40
|
30
|
|
IVORY COAST 2
|
23
|
CAF
|
VS. SENEGAL
|
2.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
74.00
|
20
|
||||
JAPAN
|
46
|
AFC
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
16
|
2.00
|
0.63
|
1.38
|
77.00
|
22
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
RECENT FORM LAST TEN
GAMES (THRU 6/4)
|
||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
||
GROUP C
|
|||||||||
COLOMBIA
|
8
|
CONMEBOL
|
5
|
1
|
4
|
14
|
9
|
5
|
|
GREECE 4
|
12
|
UEFA
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
10
|
4
|
6
|
|
IVORY COAST 2
|
23
|
CAF
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
21
|
14
|
7
|
|
JAPAN
|
46
|
AFC
|
6
|
3
|
1
|
21
|
15
|
6
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
ANALYSIS
|
||
GROUP C
|
||||
COLOMBIA
|
8
|
CONMEBOL
|
ONLY LOSS OVER L10 WAS AT
URUGUAY 2-0 ON 9/10/13. L3 OUTINGS
WERE DRAWS INCLUDING LESS THAN INSPIRING EFFORTS VS. TUNISIA &
SENEGAL. RECENT FORM & LACK OF
EXPERIENCE MAY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN, AS IS THE HEALTH OF STRIKER RADAMEL
FALCAO.
|
|
GREECE 4
|
12
|
UEFA
|
HAS NOT SCORED A GOAL IN
3 MATCHES THUS FAR IN 2014 (PAIR OF 0-0 DRAWS VS. FELLOW WORLD CUP SQUADS
PORTUGAL & NIGERIA ALONG WITH 2-0 LOSS AT HOME TO SOUTH KOREA). HAVE NOT SCORED MORE THAN 2 GOALS IN A
MATCH SINCE 6/4/11 VS. MALTA AT HOME!
WILL LIKELY PLAY TIGHT TO VEST LOOKING FOR DRAWS - THUS PLAYING DRAWS
& UNDERS IN THEIR MATCHES LIKELY SOLID SELECTIONS
|
|
IVORY COAST 2
|
23
|
CAF
|
SINCE BEATING GAMBIA BACK
TO BACK 3-0 & TANZANIA IN NEXT OUTING 4-2 DURING WC QUALIFYING THEY ARE
JUST 2-2-3 WITH GD OF (1). IN LAST 10
HAVE FACED 3 FELLOW WORLD CUP TMS GOING 0-2-1 WITH LONE POINT A 2-2 TIE VS.
BELGIUM. SINCE AFOREMENTIONED GAMES
VS. GAMBIA BOTH TEAMS HAVE SCORED IN THEIR LAST 8 GAMES THUS OVER PLAYS MAY
BE SOLID HERE. CIV MAY BE LONGEST SHOT
OF GROUP TO REACH KNOCKOUT STAGE.
|
|
JAPAN
|
46
|
AFC
|
UNBEATEN OVER L5 DATING
BACK TO 1-0 ROAD LOSS AT BELARUS ON 10/15/13.
HAVE FACED 5 WORLD CUP TMS OVER L10 GMS GOING 3-1-1 WITH LONE LOSS TO
URUGUAY, DRAW WITH NETHERLANDS & BEATING GHANA, BELGIUM & COSTA RICA
BY COMBINED 9-4 SCORE. HAVING EXCEEDED
EXPECTATIONS REACHING THE KNOCKOUT STAGE IN 2 OF LAST 3 WORLD CUPS NO REASON
IN THIS WEAK GROUP THE JAPANESE CANNOT ADVANCE AGAIN. A CASE COULD EVEN BE MADE THEY ARE THE
FAVORITE.
|
JUNE 6TH
|
FINAL STAGE OF
QUALIFICATION
|
GROUP W/O TM
|
||||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
GF
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
AVG
|
RANK
|
||
GROUP D
|
||||||||||||
URUGUAY 8
|
7
|
CONMEBOL
|
7
|
5
|
4
|
25
|
1.56
|
1.56
|
0.00
|
31.88
|
4
|
|
COSTA RICA
|
28
|
CONCACAF
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
13
|
1.30
|
0.70
|
0.60
|
35.60
|
7
|
|
ENGLAND
|
10
|
UEFA
|
6
|
0
|
4
|
31
|
3.10
|
0.40
|
2.70
|
88.80
|
29
|
|
ITALY
|
9
|
UEFA
|
6
|
0
|
4
|
19
|
1.90
|
0.90
|
1.00
|
61.00
|
16
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
RECENT FORM LAST TEN
GAMES (THRU 6/4)
|
||||||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
+
|
-
|
+/-
|
||
GROUP D
|
|||||||||
URUGUAY 8
|
7
|
CONMEBOL
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
20
|
9
|
11
|
|
COSTA RICA
|
28
|
CONCACAF
|
4
|
5
|
1
|
13
|
14
|
(1)
|
|
ENGLAND
|
10
|
UEFA
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
19
|
8
|
11
|
|
ITALY
|
9
|
UEFA
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
12
|
11
|
1
|
|
JUNE 6TH
|
||||
FIFA RANK
|
REGION
|
ANALYSIS
|
||
GROUP D
|
||||
URUGUAY 8
|
7
|
CONMEBOL
|
THOUGH URUGUAY DID
STRUGGLE EARLY IN QUALIFICATION THEY COME INTO THIS COMPETITION PLAYING WELL
WITH JUST ONE LOSS VS FELLOW WORLD CUP CONMEBOL COUNTRY ECUADOR ON ROAD 0-1
(10/11/13). ONE CONCERN COULD BE NOT
FACING ANY DECENT COMPETITION SINCE 10/15/13 WHEN THEY BEAT ARGENTINA AS
THEIR FOUR GAMES SINCE THEN CAME AGAINST JORDAN TWICE (INTERCONTINENTAL
PLAYOFF), AUSTRIA & NORTHERN IRELAND.
|
|
COSTA RICA
|
28
|
CONCACAF
|
DEFENSE IS A MAJOR
CONCERN AS THEY HAVE NOT HELD ONE CLEAN SHEET OVER THEIR LAST 9 MATCHES
DATING BACK TO A SHUTOUT OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON 8/14/13. THEY ARE 0-5 DATING BACK TO 2-1 HOME WIN
OVER MEXICO ON 10/15/13 & JUST 1-6-0 OVER THEIR LAST 7 MATCHES. NO QUESTION THE LONGSHOT OF THIS GROUP, AND
BATTLING AUSTRALIA FOR THE LONGEST SHOT OF ANY TEAM TO REACH THE KNOCKOUT
STAGE.
|
|
ENGLAND
|
10
|
UEFA
|
OVER THEIR LAST 10 THEY
HAVE FACED 3 WORLD CUP TEAMS GOING JUST 0-2-1 GETTING SHUTOUT AT HOME IN BACK
TO BACK LOSSES TO CHILE & GERMANY IN LATE 2013, FOLLOWED BY RECENT 2-2
TIE WITH ECUADOR ON 6/4/14. HAVE
ESCAPED GROUP STAGE IN EACH OF LAST FOUR WORLD CUPS, BUT BIG TIME UPHILL
BATTLE THIS YEAR FOR A TEAM SOMEWHAT IN TRANSITION FACING A VERY DIFFICULT
GROUP.
|
|
ITALY
|
9
|
UEFA
|
HEADS INTO THE WORLD CUP
NOT IN GOOD FORM WHATSOEVER HAVING NO WINS SINCE BEATING CZECH REPUBLIC &
BULGARIA BY ONE GOAL AT HOME IN EARLY SEPTEMBER 2013. JUST 0-1-6 L7 MATCHES INCLUDING DRAWS
AGAINST THE LIKES OF LUXEMBORG, IRELAND & ARMENIA. HAVE NOT SCORED MORE THAN 2 GOALS SINCE
BEATING JAPAN IN CONFEDERATIONS CUP LAST JUNE. AMAZINGLY THEY HAVE NOT SCORED A GOAL &
HELD A CLEAN SHEET AWAY FROM HOME SINCE BEATING MALTA 2-0 ON 3/26/13.
|
Great analysis there covering the first four groups (A, B, C, D) of the 2014 World Cup.
Next four groups (E, F, G, H) will be posted this weekend which will round out the field of 32.
Remember, we will be back next week before the competition starts taking a look at gambling lines & futures - if interested in selections on a game by game basis check out our package located on the website...we DOMINATED World Cup 2010 & look forward to similar results in 2014!
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