Wednesday, May 28, 2014

NBA 2013-2014 PLAYOFFS: Performance Ratings & Power Ratings thru May 27





OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
Team
SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK
Miami
24
1

30
5

54
1
San Antonio
32
7

23
4

55
2
Oklahoma City
28
5

31
6

59
3
Washington
40
13

20
1

60
4
Indiana
44
14

20
1

64
5
Atlanta
44
14

20
1

64
5
L.A. Clippers
24
1

41
12

65
7
Brooklyn
28
5

37
8

65
7
Houston
24
1

43
15

67
9
Golden State
27
4

43
15

70
10
Dallas
34
8

38
9

72
11
Memphis
36
9

39
10

75
12
Chicago
39
11

36
7

75
12
Toronto
37
10

42
13

79
14
Portland
39
11

42
13

81
15
Charlotte
44
14

39
10

83
16
               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.  Here are some key aspects to keep in mind when reviewing this data:
  • Ratings (sum columns) are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.
  • All ten statistics used to measure team performance are weighted equally in this analysis (hence team performance ratings; power ratings below weight each statistic properly to best forecast points scored & allowed).  Using an equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping efforts when properly applied.
  • All statistics are adjusted to represent performance per 48 minutes which normalizes the data set for overtime periods and allows us to compare teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs.


Next let’s display the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base (alphabetical order):

HOME
AWAY
Atlanta
4.2
2.2
Brooklyn
7.4
4.4
Charlotte
2.3
0.3
Chicago
4.5
1.5
Dallas
6.5
3.5
Golden State
4.0
1.0
Houston
7.3
3.3
Indiana
7.8
3.8
L.A. Clippers
9.5
5.5
Memphis
6.4
3.4
Miami
10.8
5.8
Oklahoma City
7.8
2.8
Portland
4.7
0.7
San Antonio
11.2
6.2
Toronto
4.0
1.0
Washington
7.0
5.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.  
By their nature playoff power ratings are hyper-sensitive to variance in performance, and those listed above are based solely on playoff performance to date (small sample sizes in all cases, some extremely small such as Charlotte).  These are a solid guide/starting point but should also be utilized in combination with my Final Regular Season Power Ratings (posted to my blog on April 20th) to test for true line value.  

Based on these ratings – which again only incorporate playoff results through yesterday’s Game 4 between Oklahoma City & San Antonio on May 27th – here are my lines on the Conference Final games so far (you can use figures above for games going forward – but since the model is fluid & adjusts ratings based on each game there will be small fluctuations for each team still playing):

[#1] PACERS       -2           [#2] heat                           Gm1: heat -1.5                    Gm2: heat -2
[#2] HEAT            -7          [#1] pacers                      Gm3: HEAT -6                    Gm4: HEAT -6
[#1] SPURS         -8.5        [#2] thunder                      Gm1: SPURS -6                  Gm2: SPURS -5.5
[#2] THUNDER   -1.5        [#1] spurs                         Gm3: THUNDER -2.5       Gm4: THUNDER -2

*Remember, especially in the playoffs, line value is only one aspect of the entire handicapping process & should not be used by itself as a decision making tool.  I also only consider a side to have value if the variance between the Vegas line & my line is greater than 2 points.

Eastern Conference Line Value:
Game One we showed 3.5 value points on the Pacers & they easily covered winning by 11
Game Two we showed 4.0 value points on the Pacers but Heat won by 4, narrowly covering
Game Three we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Pacers but Heat won by 12 & easily covered
Game Four we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Pacers but Heat won by 12 & easily covered

KEY TAKEAWAY: OUR POWER RATINGS SHOWED VALUE ON THE FIRST TWO GAMES OF THIS SERIES & WE SPLIT.  HOWEVER, IN GAME TWO WE ACTUALLY RELEASED A STRONG 4* PLAY ON THE HEAT BASED ON THE ADDITIONAL ANGLES & FACTORS WE DISCUSSED BRIEFLY ABOVE.

Western Conference Line Value:
Game One we showed 2.5 value points on the Spurs & they easily covered winning by 17
Game Two we showed 3.0 value points on the Spurs & again they easily covered winning by 35
Game Three we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Spurs but Thunder won by 9 & covered
Game Four we showed an even slimmer 0.5 value point on Spurs but Thunder won by 13 & covered

KEY TAKEAWAY: OUR POWER RATINGS SHOWED VALUE ON THE FIRST TWO GAMES OF THIS SERIES & BOTH GAMES WERE WINNERS.

Keep in mind, when doing your handicapping on the NBA Playoffs, you must be able to:
  • Identify line value using both regular season & playoff power ratings
  • Recognize public sides vs. sharp money (I do not utilize this strategy in other sports besides NBA & NHL playoff series from time to time - "sharp" money is not a real term)
  • Realize the importance of specific games to certain teams

This will be my final NBA article of the season.  Hopefully you were able to learn a little about performance & power ratings, and have applied some of my thoughts to your own handicapping. 

Thanks for reading, and I look forward to next NBA season already!

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