I held off on updating this for each successive playoff round since it is a big part of my handicapping process - and my clients pay me to handicap these games whereas this blog is offered for free for any potential clients to get a feel for the kind of work I do & the models I build to assist my handicapping efforts (how many other handicappers offer this kind of information?) - but here is the latest updated information through yesterday's Game 1 between Miami & Indiana.
First up here are the performance ratings which I have posted numerous times throughout the season - keep in mind here the "rank" column obviously only includes teams that made the playoffs (#1-16):
|
OFFENSE |
|
DEFENSE |
|
TOTAL |
| Team |
SUM |
RANK |
|
SUM |
RANK |
|
SUM |
RANK |
| Miami |
23 |
1 |
|
27 |
5 |
|
50 |
1 |
| Oklahoma City |
24 |
3 |
|
32 |
6 |
|
56 |
2 |
| San Antonio |
32 |
7 |
|
25 |
4 |
|
57 |
3 |
| Indiana |
46 |
16 |
|
17 |
1 |
|
63 |
5 |
We can see from this matrix, which weights all areas of performance I evaluate evenly, we have 4 of the top 5 teams performance wise so far in the playoffs still alive - #4 is Washington, which bowed out to #5 Indiana in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Next up let's take a look at the power ratings, which properly weight performance in each of the 8 statistics I track that have proven to have the utmost important in winning games:
|
POWER |
|
RATING |
| San Antonio |
6.0 |
| Miami |
5.6 |
| Indiana |
4.0 |
| Okla City |
2.8 |
Based on my power ratings let's take a look at the projected lines my model has for the upcoming series.
INDIANA -2.5 miami
MIAMI -5.5 indiana
SAN ANTONIO -6 oklahoma city
OKLAHOMA CITY -1 san antonio
Based on the line on yesterday's game 1 between Miami & Indiana we can see there was value on the Pacers as I had them as a small favorite, yet they were a small underdog.
Tonight's Game 1 in the Western Conference I have as Spurs laying 6 which is right where the number has settled in Vegas.
Keep in mind not only would we want to use these power ratings but also use the power ratings I have posted for the full regular season, along with measuring key factors that impact playoff series such as emotional levels, needing games, and the old zig-zag theory.
Remember these lines & formulas are all mathematically based & are not tweaked at all based on my perception.
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