World Cup Preview 2014: Part III

Thanks for stopping by again to read Part III of IV in our initial World Cup Preview.  Check back tomorrow for final piece of this puzzle.

								16-May
		PRIOR WORLD CUP FINISHES						FIFA
	REGION	2010	2006	2002	1998	1994		RANK
GROUP E
SWITZERLAND	UEFA	G	16			16		8
ECUADOR	CONMEBOL		16	G				28
FRANCE	UEFA	G	2ND	G	WIN			16
HONDURAS	CONCACAF	G						30

This is another group I would classify as relatively weak despite it rating mid-class when using FIFA rankings compared to other groups.  Switzerland is rated tops in this group but hasn’t had any success in the World Cup to write home about – they have only made the competition three times of the last five (granted they have reached the last two), topping out in the Round of 16 at Germany in 2006.  France, another UEFA squad, is certainly on the downswing of late, checking in the FIFA rankings at #16, failing to get out of the group stage in 2 of their last 3 appearances since winning it all at home in 1998.  The group is rounded out with CONMEBOL country Ecuador, who has made the competition only twice of the last five including missing it last time, while Honduras is making its second appearance since 1994, going out in the group stage of 2010 South Africa.  I could really see any of these four teams advancing here – and will likely be playing whoever has the best odds to advance (my next article, as mentioned above, will focus on odds and good bets).  For this exercise I will project France & Switzerland to advance.

								16-May
		PRIOR WORLD CUP FINISHES						FIFA
	REGION	2010	2006	2002	1998	1994		RANK
GROUP F
ARGENTINA	CONMEBOL	QF	QF	G	QF	16		7
BOS & HERZ	UEFA							25
IRAN	AFC		G		G			37
NIGERIA	CAF	G		G	16	16		44

Group F is easily the weakest group when using the FIFA rankings as Argentina is the only team ranked in the Top 24 of the world, and also the only team that has advanced to the knockout stage since Nigeria reached the single elimination tournament in 1998 & 1994.  There is no question to me Argentina has some demons to exercise in this year’s competition & will play well leading to an easy advance – perhaps the easiest of any team.  The 2^nd spot from this group is likely to come from the winner of the middle game on June 21^st between Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Nigeria; I would give the slight edge to Nigeria considering they are the more experienced team & have underachieved in the last few World Cups.

								16-May
		PRIOR WORLD CUP FINISHES						FIFA
	REGION	2010	2006	2002	1998	1994		RANK
GROUP G
GERMANY	UEFA	3RD	3RD	2ND	QF	QF		2
PORTUGAL	UEFA	16	4TH	G				3
GHANA	CAF	QF	16					38
USA	CONCACAF	16	G	QF	G	16		14

In the toughest region if using average FIFA world rank as the metric Group G is this year’s “Group of Death” – frankly an overused term but I will join the rank & file by using it here.  UEFA power Germany leads this group checking in at #2 in the world, having reached at least the QF round in each of the last 5 World Cups including playing in the SF round or Championship game in the last three years.  With much of the same team I expect Germany to certainly advance to the knockout stage.  The 2^nd spot could arguably come from any of the remaining three teams with each reaching the knockout stage in the last World Cup, and each competing in the last two World Cups.  Ghana has to be considered the longest shot considering the success of CAF teams recently, and a low FIFA ranking of #38.  Portugal should be hungry after only reaching the Round of 16 last time out following a SF loss in 2006 Germany, while the Americans are seeking to at least reach the QF round for the first time since Japan 2002.  I like this US team – I certainly feel this is the best team we have put forth perhaps ever, but the group will do us no favors.  At least one CONCACAF team has advanced to the knockout stage in each of the last 5 World Cups, thus I will project USA to come in 2^nd here (Mexico has been far too inconsistent for my liking).

								16-May
		PRIOR WORLD CUP FINISHES						FIFA
	REGION	2010	2006	2002	1998	1994		RANK
GROUP H
BELGIUM	UEFA			16	G	16		12
ALGERIA	CAF	G						25
RUSSIA	UEFA			G		G		18
SOUTH KOREA	AFC	16	G	4TH	G	G		55

In the 2^nd easiest group (only to Group F) according to FIFA rankings – but perhaps the easiest considering how much Argentina is impacting the average ranking of Group F – Group H is wide open and ironically the lowest ranked team in the competition South Korea has enjoyed the most success by far of the four teams in this group!  Over the last two World Cups outside the aforementioned South Korea only one of the other three teams Algeria has even played in a World Cup – and they were knocked out in the group stage in 2010 South Africa.  Belgium is making its first appearance since 2002 Japan & they are led by Vincent Kompany – who led Manchester City to BPL titles in 2 of the last 3 years.  Russia is also a dangerous team from UEFA checking in at #18 in the FIFA world rankings despite not making a World Cup appearance since Japan 2002 where it bowed out in the group stage.  At the end of the day despite not having much recent success I feel both UEFA teams are the ones to beat here – and they will ultimately advance to the knockout stage with Belgium winning the group.

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