We can really see a high correlation between wins &
performance rating. Even taking that a
step further, the teams that seem “out of order” like Detroit & San Diego
have been so impacted negatively by TOM it has affected how many games they
have won. Right at the top we see
Seattle & Denver – considering the Seahawks have enjoyed a +19 better TOM,
and the teams have played a similar schedule, it would seem the Broncos have
played better football this season, and if the turnovers do not continue
flowing in a positive nature for Seattle they could be in trouble.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
12
|
SEA
|
45.4
|
7
|
49.1
|
1
|
94.5
|
1
|
27
|
18
|
||||
|
12
|
DEN
|
54.3
|
1
|
40.0
|
14
|
94.3
|
2
|
26
|
(1)
|
||||
|
11
|
CAR
|
45.1
|
9
|
46.1
|
3
|
91.2
|
3
|
23
|
12
|
||||
|
10
|
NO
|
46.5
|
6
|
44.1
|
8
|
90.7
|
4
|
12
|
(1)
|
||||
|
10
|
CIN
|
43.7
|
10
|
46.7
|
2
|
90.5
|
5
|
24
|
2
|
||||
|
7
|
DET
|
45.4
|
8
|
43.7
|
9
|
89.1
|
6
|
32
|
(14)
|
||||
|
11
|
SF
|
42.1
|
16
|
45.4
|
4
|
87.5
|
7
|
18
|
10
|
||||
|
11
|
KC
|
43.4
|
11
|
42.2
|
11
|
85.6
|
8
|
31
|
17
|
||||
|
8
|
SD
|
51.2
|
2
|
34.3
|
26
|
85.4
|
9
|
25
|
(3)
|
||||
|
10
|
ARI
|
39.9
|
19
|
45.1
|
5
|
85.0
|
10
|
8
|
2
|
||||
|
9
|
PHI
|
48.6
|
4
|
36.3
|
24
|
84.9
|
11
|
29
|
10
|
||||
|
11
|
NE
|
43.2
|
13
|
38.2
|
18
|
81.4
|
12
|
20
|
8
|
||||
|
6
|
BUF
|
36.4
|
23
|
44.7
|
7
|
81.1
|
13
|
28
|
2
|
||||
|
7
|
PIT
|
40.7
|
17
|
40.2
|
13
|
80.9
|
14
|
21
|
(4)
|
||||
|
8
|
CHI
|
49.5
|
3
|
31.0
|
28
|
80.5
|
15
|
22
|
5
|
||||
|
7
|
GB
|
46.6
|
5
|
33.7
|
27
|
80.4
|
16
|
30
|
(3)
|
||||
|
3
|
WAS
|
43.3
|
12
|
36.9
|
22
|
80.2
|
17
|
16
|
(8)
|
||||
|
10
|
IND
|
42.3
|
15
|
36.5
|
23
|
78.8
|
18
|
8
|
11
|
||||
|
6
|
TEN
|
40.6
|
18
|
38.2
|
19
|
78.7
|
19
|
11
|
(3)
|
||||
|
2
|
HOU
|
36.0
|
24
|
41.5
|
12
|
77.5
|
20
|
9
|
(17)
|
||||
|
7
|
STL
|
39.6
|
22
|
37.4
|
20
|
77.0
|
21
|
5
|
9
|
||||
|
7
|
NYJ
|
32.8
|
28
|
43.2
|
10
|
76.0
|
22
|
19
|
(17)
|
||||
|
8
|
BAL
|
30.9
|
31
|
45.0
|
6
|
75.9
|
23
|
17
|
(6)
|
||||
|
8
|
MIA
|
34.8
|
26
|
39.7
|
15
|
74.5
|
24
|
10
|
1
|
||||
|
4
|
CLE
|
34.8
|
26
|
38.9
|
17
|
73.8
|
25
|
15
|
(8)
|
||||
|
8
|
DAL
|
42.8
|
14
|
30.4
|
30
|
73.2
|
26
|
15
|
10
|
||||
|
4
|
OAK
|
35.8
|
25
|
35.8
|
25
|
71.6
|
27
|
15
|
(7)
|
||||
|
6
|
NYG
|
31.0
|
30
|
39.3
|
16
|
70.3
|
28
|
2
|
(16)
|
||||
|
4
|
MIN
|
39.9
|
19
|
29.9
|
31
|
69.8
|
29
|
5
|
(10)
|
||||
|
4
|
ATL
|
39.7
|
21
|
29.5
|
32
|
69.2
|
30
|
3
|
(6)
|
||||
|
4
|
TB
|
31.8
|
29
|
37.0
|
21
|
68.8
|
31
|
1
|
11
|
||||
|
4
|
JAC
|
28.3
|
32
|
31.0
|
28
|
59.2
|
32
|
6
|
(4)
|
||||
This week let’s examine some interesting stats/metrics about
each currently projected NFC playoff team:
#1 Seattle:
the Seahawks have held down the top spot in the performance ratings the last
few weeks, but there are clearly a few warning signs about this team the
general media fails to discuss or overlooks for some unknown reason. As discussed above their TOM of +18 is tops
in the NFL, and although clearly not a bad thing, at some point you must be
concerned especially as the playoffs evolve and the competition increases that
margin will suppress itself back towards zero some; if that occurs how much of
their favorable performance and outcomes during the regular season were
favorably impacted by TOM? The next
major area for concern for Seattle is their defense – not the ranking this
season as that is #1 in the NFL, but they have played the 29th
toughest schedule of opponent offenses on the season! Surely playing a schedule that weak has
helped out their W/L column & their favorable TOM. The offenses likely to be in the NFC playoffs
are ranked #3, 4, 6, 9 and 16 (SF) – which will be a clear step up in
competition especially in consecutive weeks – and if they won the NFC
Championship game they could face the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl who own
the #1 offense in the entire NFL.
#2 Carolina:
that was a huge win by Cam Newton & Company last week in Charlotte, and now
the Panthers control their own destiny to secure a bye and the #2 seed in the
NFC with a win in Atlanta Sunday. The
Panthers have consistently ranked in my Top 5 teams for well over half the
season, and they also were my “Biggest Bullish Team” heading into this season –
and they have not let me down. Carolina
does it the old school way, playing strong defense and running the ball. Statistically this team breaks down very
similar to the Seahawks, and a rematch of their opening week game in Charlotte
(12-7 Seattle win) could be in the NFC Championship game cards.
#3 Philadelphia:
for this projection we slide the Eagles into the NFC East title based on the
fact QB Tony Romo is unlikely to play on Sunday. Philadelphia’s offense has been strong the
second half of the season as they have averaged a grade of 54.4 over their last
7 outings. Their defense however
continues to be an Achilles heel as over that same time period they have
averaged a defensive grade of just 36.9 – which will not get the job done in
the defense heavy NFC. Clearly for the
Eagles to have a legitimate shot at winning their Wild Card matchup in the Linc
they would prefer seeing the Saints rolling into town versus the Niners; let’s
watch closely to see how things play out but either way it would seem to be an
uphill battle as far as winning & advancing in January.
#4 Chicago:
like the Eagles above we are giving the NFC North title to the Bears over the
Packers considering it’s unlikely as of the time of this blog that QB Aaron
Rodgers will be under center for GB.
Chicago really laid an egg last week in Philadelphia as we all know by
now, which could wind up being a good thing for the Bears as their focus is
sure to be ratcheted up a few levels heading into this big game Sunday. Chicago’s defense, like Philadelphia, is
clearly the worst amongst the NFC playoff teams; and also like the Eagles their
offense is strong, but they are more of a passing offense compared to the #1
ranked Eagles rushing offense. QB play will
be absolutely critical to the success of the Bears in the playoffs.
#5 San Francisco:
it’s hard to imagine a 12-4 San Francisco team heading on the road in the Wild
Card round of the playoffs, potentially at an 8 or 9 win division champ, but
that is exactly what will occur come next weekend….at least the road game
part. Perhaps no team has been as
dominant since a Wk3 loss vs. Indianapolis than SF – they have gone 10-2 with
their pair of losses coming by a combined 4 points. Average score of those 12 games you ask? 28-14 SF.
Impressive. The Niners were
negative in TOM only twice all season, Wks 2&3, both losses...so we know
like Seattle, and many other teams, SF has to hang onto the ball and take the
ball away defensively to have a shot at making it through the NFC gauntlet –
all the more important for them considering they will be starting on the road.
#6 New Orleans:
the 2013 Saints could be the most dangerous #6 seed in the history of the
playoffs. New Orleans ranks #4 in the
Performance Ratings which is excellent, and only further enhanced by the fact
they also have faced the toughest schedule (by far) of any of the top 9 teams
in the ratings, along with posting a (1) TOM on the season – which, like
Denver, makes their performance rating all the more impressive. So where has it gone wrong for the Saints,
pushing them down to a 6 seed? The
clearest answer is their road performance, a seemingly annual issue for this
team. The Saints rank just 15th
in the NFL according to my home/road Performance Rating splits, posting just
17.8 points per game and on average being outscored by 4.6 ppg. All that being said any team with Drew Brees
at QB, and a defense that is vastly improved over last season has a shot – but
considering they would be headed to Seattle in the Divisional round if they did
win their opening Wild Card round game – it will be an uphill battle big time.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk16. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
11.63
|
4.37
|
PHI
|
9.51
|
6.49
|
|
|
MIA
|
8.52
|
7.48
|
DAL
|
8.49
|
7.51
|
|
|
NYJ
|
7.48
|
8.52
|
NYG
|
6.52
|
9.48
|
|
|
BUF
|
6.37
|
9.63
|
WAS
|
3.48
|
12.52
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
10.76
|
5.24
|
CHI
|
8.63
|
7.37
|
|
|
BAL
|
8.24
|
7.76
|
GB
|
7.87
|
8.13
|
|
|
PIT
|
7.63
|
8.37
|
DET
|
7.62
|
8.39
|
|
|
CLE
|
4.37
|
11.63
|
MIN
|
4.89
|
11.12
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
10.85
|
5.15
|
CAR
|
11.76
|
4.24
|
|
|
TEN
|
6.52
|
9.48
|
NO
|
10.88
|
5.13
|
|
|
JAC
|
4.15
|
11.85
|
ATL
|
4.24
|
11.76
|
|
|
HOU
|
2.48
|
13.52
|
TB
|
4.13
|
11.88
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
12.76
|
3.24
|
SEA
|
12.81
|
3.19
|
|
|
KC
|
11.48
|
4.52
|
SF
|
11.49
|
4.51
|
|
|
SD
|
8.52
|
7.48
|
ARI
|
10.51
|
5.49
|
|
|
OAK
|
4.24
|
11.76
|
STL
|
7.19
|
8.81
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 MIA @ #3 IND
|
#6 NO @ #3 PHI
|
|||||
|
#5 KC @ #4 CIN
|
#5 SF @ #4 CHI
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
|
#2 NE
|
#2 CAR
|
|||||
In this week’s projected playoff field the only change from
last week was a flip-flop of Indianapolis & Cincinnati between the #3 &
#4 seeds in the AFC playoffs. The open
spots heading into Wk17 are the #6 seed in the AFC, the NFC East divisional
winner & the NFC North divisional winner.
The #6 seed in the AFC will be decided between Baltimore, Miami, San
Diego & Pittsburgh – in that order.
If Baltimore wins at Cincinnati they would earn that spot; if they lose
Miami is next up and so on down the line.
We currently project Miami to hang onto that spot as we have for the
last four weeks. The NFC divisional
winners will both be decided on head to head matchups Sunday, and with the
injuries at QB for the Cowboys & Packers it seems the Eagles & Bears
would be the best projections to win those divisions. We have projected the Eagles to win the NFC
East in each of the last 7 weeks, while Chicago has slipped in as the NFC North
champ in our projections the last two weeks.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:
|
1
|
DEN
|
|
2
|
SEA
|
|
3
|
CAR
|
|
4
|
NO
|
|
5
|
SF
|
|
6
|
CIN
|
|
7
|
ARI
|
|
8
|
DET
|
|
9
|
NE
|
|
10
|
KC
|
|
11
|
SD
|
|
12
|
PIT
|
|
13
|
CHI
|
|
14
|
PHI
|
|
15
|
BUF
|
|
15
|
IND
|
|
17
|
STL
|
|
18
|
MIA
|
|
19
|
GB
|
|
20
|
BAL
|
|
21
|
NYG
|
|
21
|
MIN
|
|
23
|
WAS
|
|
23
|
TEN
|
|
25
|
HOU
|
|
25
|
NYJ
|
|
27
|
CLE
|
|
28
|
DAL
|
|
29
|
TB
|
|
30
|
OAK
|
|
31
|
ATL
|
|
32
|
JAC
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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