I prefer to allow approximately 25% of the NBA season to play
out before publishing my NBA Performance ratings which gives each team a chance
to settle into their true performance – that is very similar to how we handle
the NFL where our first published ratings follow Wk4 games. Here is the first installment of the
2013-2014 NBA Performance Ratings:
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
Current Wins
|
||||||||
|
TEAM
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|||
|
Indiana
|
56
|
14
|
33
|
2
|
89
|
1
|
20
|
2
|
|||
|
Minnesota
|
43
|
6
|
48
|
7
|
91
|
2
|
13
|
13
|
|||
|
Oklahoma City
|
50
|
7
|
49
|
9
|
99
|
4
|
20
|
2
|
|||
|
Toronto
|
53
|
10
|
46
|
6
|
99
|
4
|
9
|
21
|
|||
|
San Antonio
|
73
|
22
|
27
|
1
|
100
|
7
|
20
|
2
|
|||
|
Portland
|
28
|
1
|
72
|
23
|
100
|
7
|
22
|
1
|
|||
|
Charlotte
|
66
|
18
|
34
|
3
|
100
|
7
|
12
|
15
|
|||
|
LA Clippers
|
40
|
5
|
62
|
12
|
102
|
8
|
18
|
6
|
|||
|
Houston
|
40
|
5
|
63
|
14
|
103
|
9
|
17
|
7
|
|||
|
Denver
|
39
|
2
|
68
|
19
|
107
|
10
|
14
|
9
|
|||
|
New Orleans
|
40
|
5
|
73
|
24
|
113
|
11
|
11
|
18
|
|||
|
Atlanta
|
71
|
20
|
44
|
4
|
115
|
12
|
14
|
9
|
|||
|
Detroit
|
54
|
12
|
63
|
14
|
117
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
|||
|
Sacramento
|
52
|
8
|
68
|
19
|
120
|
14
|
7
|
27
|
|||
|
Miami
|
55
|
13
|
67
|
16
|
122
|
16
|
19
|
5
|
|||
|
Chicago
|
73
|
22
|
49
|
9
|
122
|
16
|
9
|
21
|
|||
|
Washington
|
77
|
25
|
46
|
6
|
123
|
17
|
11
|
18
|
|||
|
Golden State
|
65
|
17
|
59
|
11
|
124
|
18
|
14
|
9
|
|||
|
Memphis
|
62
|
15
|
68
|
19
|
130
|
19
|
10
|
20
|
|||
|
Phoenix
|
54
|
12
|
80
|
28
|
134
|
20
|
14
|
9
|
|||
|
Dallas
|
63
|
16
|
75
|
26
|
138
|
21
|
15
|
8
|
|||
|
New York
|
70
|
19
|
72
|
23
|
142
|
22
|
8
|
25
|
|||
|
Brooklyn
|
53
|
10
|
91
|
29
|
144
|
23
|
9
|
21
|
|||
|
Boston
|
74
|
23
|
71
|
21
|
145
|
25
|
12
|
15
|
|||
|
Orlando
|
89
|
28
|
56
|
10
|
145
|
25
|
8
|
25
|
|||
|
Cleveland
|
83
|
27
|
64
|
15
|
147
|
26
|
9
|
21
|
|||
|
LA Lakers
|
78
|
26
|
77
|
27
|
155
|
27
|
12
|
15
|
|||
|
Philadelphia
|
92
|
29
|
70
|
20
|
162
|
28
|
7
|
27
|
|||
|
Milwaukee
|
96
|
30
|
75
|
26
|
171
|
29
|
5
|
30
|
|||
|
Utah
|
77
|
25
|
104
|
30
|
181
|
30
|
7
|
27
|
|||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our
NFL ratings that are best when higher.
We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be
over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups
could produce more or less points. Based
on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through
yesterday’s games (12/18), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish
on:
Bullish (looking
for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested
statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, Charlotte, and New Orleans
Bearish (opposite
of Bullish comments above): Boston, Dallas, Phoenix
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
TEAM
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
Indiana
|
117.5
|
113.0
|
|
Minnesota
|
115.7
|
112.7
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
116.2
|
111.7
|
|
Toronto
|
113.7
|
111.7
|
|
San Antonio
|
115.6
|
111.6
|
|
Portland
|
115.6
|
111.6
|
|
Charlotte
|
113.6
|
111.6
|
|
LA Clippers
|
115.3
|
111.3
|
|
Houston
|
114.7
|
111.2
|
|
Denver
|
113.7
|
110.7
|
|
New Orleans
|
112.4
|
109.9
|
|
Atlanta
|
113.1
|
109.6
|
|
Detroit
|
111.3
|
109.3
|
|
Sacramento
|
111.0
|
109.0
|
|
Miami
|
112.7
|
108.7
|
|
Chicago
|
111.2
|
108.7
|
|
Washington
|
111.1
|
108.6
|
|
Golden State
|
111.9
|
108.4
|
|
Memphis
|
109.7
|
107.7
|
|
Phoenix
|
110.1
|
107.1
|
|
Dallas
|
110.6
|
106.6
|
|
New York
|
108.1
|
106.1
|
|
Brooklyn
|
107.8
|
105.8
|
|
Boston
|
108.2
|
105.7
|
|
Orlando
|
107.7
|
105.7
|
|
Cleveland
|
108.4
|
105.4
|
|
LA Lakers
|
106.9
|
104.4
|
|
Philadelphia
|
105.5
|
103.5
|
|
Milwaukee
|
104.3
|
102.3
|
|
Utah
|
103.0
|
101.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. For
example, according to my ratings above, if Utah played at Indiana I would set
the # at Indiana -16.5 with all else being equal such as motivation (divisional
contest, either team seeking revenge, on a losing or winning streak), days rest
for both teams, injuries, etc… We can
use these ratings to handicap the lines Vegas sets, and perhaps find value
plays based on variances between suggested lines according to my Power Ratings
and available lines each night. Using
these ratings on tonight’s doubleheader:
Chicago @ Oklahoma
City (-13): my power ratings suggest this # should be OKC -7.5, but
that also includes Derrick Rose’s performance when he was in the lineup as the
Bulls have really struggled since he has been out of the lineup. Even including that this may be a solid spot
for the Bulls as OKC faces the Spurs next, and in general 13 points is a ton in
the NBA. I will be passing here but
could see some value on the Bulls, but not a ton.
San Antonio @ Golden
State (-3): my power ratings suggest this # should be about a Pick, but
I can see the 3pt adjustment here based on two factors: one the Warriors have
revenge off last year’s playoff loss (which is typically the best revenge angle
early in the next season) and two the Spurs are coming off a hard fought win at
Phoenix last night. No value here based
on the #; I would lean towards the Warriors as they seem overdue for a very
inspired effort, but like the Patriots in the NFL it’s tough to fade the Spurs
so I will be passing.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end. The SU projected wins are based on the same
statistics as the Performance Ratings but plugged into a tested regression
formula weighting each statistic/metric on their true impact on wins:
|
Current Wins
|
ATS Wins
|
Projected Wins
|
||||||
|
TEAM
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
||
|
Indiana
|
20
|
2
|
17
|
2
|
55.21
|
3
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
8
|
47.29
|
10
|
||
|
Oklahoma City
|
20
|
2
|
14
|
8
|
53.09
|
5
|
||
|
Toronto
|
9
|
21
|
10
|
22
|
43.92
|
16
|
||
|
San Antonio
|
20
|
2
|
13
|
14
|
63.60
|
1
|
||
|
Portland
|
22
|
1
|
18
|
1
|
50.68
|
6
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
12
|
15
|
16
|
4
|
39.67
|
18
|
||
|
LA Clippers
|
18
|
6
|
16
|
4
|
54.38
|
4
|
||
|
Houston
|
17
|
7
|
14
|
8
|
48.88
|
7
|
||
|
Denver
|
14
|
9
|
12
|
17
|
45.79
|
14
|
||
|
New Orleans
|
11
|
18
|
9
|
25
|
45.22
|
15
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
14
|
9
|
15
|
6
|
41.56
|
17
|
||
|
Detroit
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
47.65
|
9
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
7
|
27
|
8
|
27
|
33.47
|
22
|
||
|
Miami
|
19
|
5
|
12
|
17
|
63.47
|
2
|
||
|
Chicago
|
9
|
21
|
7
|
29
|
31.47
|
23
|
||
|
Washington
|
11
|
18
|
14
|
8
|
39.46
|
19
|
||
|
Golden State
|
14
|
9
|
11
|
20
|
46.84
|
12
|
||
|
Memphis
|
10
|
20
|
7
|
29
|
33.50
|
21
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
14
|
9
|
17
|
2
|
46.40
|
13
|
||
|
Dallas
|
15
|
8
|
14
|
8
|
48.00
|
8
|
||
|
New York
|
8
|
25
|
9
|
25
|
47.13
|
11
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
9
|
21
|
11
|
20
|
28.70
|
26
|
||
|
Boston
|
12
|
15
|
15
|
6
|
36.07
|
20
|
||
|
Orlando
|
8
|
25
|
13
|
14
|
31.03
|
24
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
9
|
21
|
10
|
22
|
28.68
|
27
|
||
|
LA Lakers
|
12
|
15
|
14
|
8
|
29.49
|
25
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
7
|
27
|
10
|
22
|
19.79
|
28
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
5
|
30
|
8
|
27
|
15.02
|
30
|
||
|
Utah
|
7
|
27
|
12
|
17
|
16.87
|
29
|
||
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season. Based on these projections as of
12/18 the playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 64-18
#2 LA Clippers 54-28
#3 Oklahoma City 53-29
#4 Portland 51-31
#5 Houston 49-33
#6 Dallas 48-34
#7 Minnesota 47-35
#8 Golden State 47-35
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 63-19
#2 Indiana 55-27
#3 Detroit 48-34
#4 New York 47-35
#5 Toronto 44-38
#6 Atlanta 42-40
#7 Charlotte 40-42
#8 Washington 39-43
Additional analysis that can be performed using the last
three win columns is seeking out big variances between the rankings of each
columns and using that information to help identify potentially over or under
valued teams. What do I mean by that
exactly? Take the Atlanta Hawks,
currently ranked 9th in the NBA with 14 wins; comparing that to
their projected final season wins of 42 wins (which means they would close the
season going 28-28) they could be a team to target as underperforming over the
last 75% of the regular season. When
also adding in the fact Atlanta is currently 6th best in the NBA
with 15 ATS wins Vegas will likely be shifting their lines a hair – to check if
Vegas is doing that you can use the Power Ratings from the 2nd matrix
and compare those to the Vegas numbers.
One other team that stands out some that I wanted to comment on is
Toronto – some will wonder how can they rank tied for 3rd in
performance yet only have 9 wins, good for 21st in the NBA? While it’s true they made a recent big trade
the real reason they are not winning as many games as their performance
suggests is because they are not rating well in the most critical area to
having success – shooting, both offensively and defensively. So while they can perform well in every other
area, much like the NFL, if a team moves the ball well between the 20s but
continually stalls in the red zone and kicks field goals they will not win as
many games as a team that may be less effective and efficient as far as yardage
goes, but they score more TDs. Toronto
needs to improve their shooting metrics to win more games.
One thing to remember when using these projections is it
assumes a team will continue playing at the level it has so far this season
(which is the precise reason I prefer to wait till about 25% of the season is played
before releasing this information), and it also does not adjust for injuries –
whether it be a Derrick Rose type player being lost for the entire season which
will likely lead to worse team performance or whether it be a Kobe Bryant
player recently joining his team which will likely lead to better team
performance. Remember, on a night to
night basis injuries in the NBA are often over-adjusted for; but as big name
players miss extended periods of time it will impact their performance.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
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