It’s
never too early to take a look at the upcoming college football season! With that in mind we are starting our early
season conference previews looking at the SEC East.
The SEC
East division has been one of the weaker Power 5 conference divisions for a
couple years; in 2016 it ranked 7th in division strength according
to SBPI, only besting the Big 10 West by 0.07 SBPI ratings points in Power 5
division strength – not good. Will this
be the year schools like Florida, Georgia & Tennessee return to national
relevance? Not likely despite what some
early season polls show. They are still
playing catch-up to Alabama, LSU and likely Auburn – three West division teams
– in the SEC.
2017
|
2016 OFF
|
2017
|
2016 DEF
|
2017
|
2016
|
||||
SCHOOL
|
OFF RS
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
DEF RS
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
TOT RS
|
RATING
|
RANK
|
FLORIDA
|
9
|
64.7
|
93
|
5
|
141.5
|
7
|
14
|
206.2
|
22
|
GEORGIA
|
7
|
91.7
|
59
|
10
|
109.8
|
21
|
17
|
201.5
|
26
|
TENNESSEE
|
7
|
114.0
|
25
|
7
|
76.0
|
52
|
14
|
190.0
|
32
|
MISSOURI
|
10
|
116.5
|
20
|
5
|
67.1
|
69
|
15
|
183.6
|
42
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
91.8
|
58
|
9
|
56.6
|
86
|
17
|
148.4
|
72
|
SOUTH CAROLINA
|
10
|
61.0
|
99
|
6
|
67.4
|
68
|
16
|
128.5
|
90
|
VANDERBILT
|
9
|
59.2
|
101
|
7
|
64.7
|
72
|
16
|
124.0
|
94
|
Here is a summary in bullet form of some of the division
wide trends that stand out:
·
Six of the seven teams return their starting QB
– the only team that doesn’t? Tennessee,
who loses Josh Dobbs – which is unfortunate for them as although frustrating at
times he was likely their best offensive player.
·
All seven teams return more than the average
13.4 returning starters.
·
The only potentially “elite” unit in the entire
division last year was the Florida defense – and that unit only returns 5
starters.
·
Just one team ranked in the SBPI Top 25 –
Florida – who will likely need more in 2017 from an anemic offense to raise
their standing. Gator fans are hoping
blue chip Sophomore QB Luke Del Rio can stay on the field this year and show his
playmaking ability.
·
The SEC Championship has not been won by an East
division team since 2008
Way too early projected order of finish (school, odds to
win national championship, odds to win SEC):
1.
Georgia
(40/1, 7/1): the Bulldogs return the most starters in the division,
most starters in the conference and are tied for 3rd most in the
country (only behind Syracuse’s 20 and Florida Atlantic’s 19). They are led by blue chip 2nd year
QB Jacob Eason who has all the tools and will look to leverage his experience
as a freshman to put the Dawgs in the mix for an SEC Championship. They play just three conference road games
(Tennessee, Vanderbilt & Auburn) and their other crossover game is hosting
Mississippi State. In Kirby Smart’s
second season UGA is clearly the team to beat in the East.
2.
Florida
(55/1, 10/1): like Georgia the Gators have just three true road games
(Kentucky, Missouri & South Carolina), getting both crossover games vs. LSU
& Texas A&M in The Swamp (not an easy duo even at home). UF will take a step back defensively after losing
so much talent although they won’t fall off a cliff as the cupboard is far from
bare; the offense on the other hand really struggled last year & is not close to being a consistent threat.
If they beat UGA in Jacksonville they will have a shot; a loss there
will make it a real uphill battle with their schedule.
3.
Kentucky
(500/1, 80/1): the Cats finished last year 4-4 in conference – and were
“in the mix” for a hot October second.
However a closer examination of their season shows they beat the
teams closer to their talent level while losing to all the bigger name, better
players type programs. This year with 17
starters back they could be primed to challenge and play some meaningful
November football. Their road schedule
is certainly manageable facing South Carolina early in the season, Miss State
in middle and late back-to-back roadies against Vandy & UGA (they will
certainly have revenge on their minds when they visit Athens). Their home crossover is versus Ole Miss – not
easy but it’s not Alabama or LSU, or even Auburn. It would not shock me if that SEC finale in
Athens has something on the line for both teams.
4.
South
Carolina (300/1, 80/1): the Cocks have not been relevant since 2013
& 2017 will not bring national relevance – but could SC be a sneaky pick to
win the division? They return 16
starters in Head Coach Will Muschamp’s 2nd season in Columbia &
2016 was not a complete disaster as they were only clearly out-classed in one
game – at Clemson – no shame there. This
year they need more offense against better teams – and with 10 starters
returning that is likely to occur. The
schedule features road games at Mizzou, TAMU, Tennessee & Georgia – which
is not brutal. Their home crossover is
against Arkansas – again kind of of manageable.
Although they have a long way to go I think they can sneak up on some
people this year and finish in the top middle of the division – but making jump
to the champion is unlikely.
5.
Missouri
(500/1, 160/1): the Tigers were better statistically last season than
their record indicated, which should help some in 2017. Defense was a major issue as they allowed 28+
in every SEC game besides the home win over Vanderbilt – how much will that
unit improve in 2017? My early guess is
their offense will be solid & cover-up for an average defense – but a
schedule that features four conference road games (UK, UGA, Vandy &
Arkansas) & a home crossover with Auburn will keep them towards the bottom
of the division.
6.
Tennessee
(66/1, 14/1): Butch Jones is clearly on the hot seat as the Vols want
to get back into the national title conversation – and they haven’t really been
in their own division’s race under his leadership come mid November, losing at
least three conference games in each of his four seasons, melting down to a 4-4
mark in 2016. This year not only must
they overcome the loss of their QB (which as a reminder is the only QB not
returning in this division) they face a tough schedule in conference with four
road games (Florida, Alabama, Kentucky & Mizzou) along with a late season
crossover hosting LSU. All these factors
make it too tough for the Volunteers to contend in 2017.
7.
Vanderbilt
(600/1, 160/1): the Commodores finished a game ahead of Missouri to
avoid the basement last year, but they finished worst in the division according
to SBPI and are likely headed there this season. Vandy faces a very tough schedule this year
with road contests at Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee along with
a home crossover game vs. Alabama – brutal.
I see the ‘Dores as the clear bottom dwellers this year in the
conference.
To summarize, as I sit in my office in late May, I see the
SEC East as still one of the worst divisions in the Power 5 conferences. The division, at best, probably has the 4th
best team in the conference making it once again unlikely they break the EIGHT
game losing streak in the SEC Championship Game – although in a one game
“winner take all” scenario nothing can be removed as a possibility. I see three tiers:
Contenders:
Georgia & Florida
Middle of Pack:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri & Tennessee
Bottom:
Vanderbilt
Georgia or Florida is likely to win the division but will
not be of national relevance; any of the four middle pack teams, who are all
very close to each other in my mind at this point in time, could challenge the
contenders as neither UGA nor UF is a juggernaut but it’s likely they all
finish between 3rd and 6th; Vanderbilt is very likely to
finish last.
Be back soon with a preview of the SEC West!
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2017
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