We are now deep enough into the season where all my metrics
discussed below are fully integrated and tied across the NFL – meaning we will
not see many, if any, dramatic changes in the ratings, rankings, or performance
by each team on a weekly basis. These
ratings below are designed to tell you how well a team is truly playing
disregarding their record as we see it every season – there are teams playing a
lot better than their record indicates (which are teams we should look to play
on) versus teams playing a lot worse than their record indicates (which are
teams we should look to fade).
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
6
|
DEN
|
61.7
|
1
|
41.4
|
12
|
103.1
|
1
|
30
|
0
|
||||
|
5
|
SEA
|
46.4
|
11
|
49.2
|
2
|
95.6
|
2
|
16
|
7
|
||||
|
2
|
CAR
|
47.8
|
6
|
45.6
|
8
|
93.4
|
3
|
22
|
2
|
||||
|
6
|
KC
|
39.5
|
17
|
53.0
|
1
|
92.5
|
4
|
32
|
12
|
||||
|
2
|
HOU
|
43.6
|
13
|
47.9
|
5
|
91.5
|
5
|
15
|
(12)
|
||||
|
5
|
NO
|
47.7
|
7
|
43.3
|
11
|
90.9
|
6
|
29
|
5
|
||||
|
3
|
GB
|
50.8
|
3
|
37.9
|
20
|
88.7
|
7
|
5
|
(3)
|
||||
|
4
|
CIN
|
42.2
|
15
|
46.3
|
6
|
88.4
|
8
|
19
|
(2)
|
||||
|
4
|
IND
|
47.0
|
9
|
40.6
|
15
|
87.6
|
9
|
25
|
5
|
||||
|
3
|
PHI
|
54.9
|
2
|
31.1
|
28
|
86.0
|
10
|
23
|
2
|
||||
|
4
|
DET
|
47.2
|
8
|
37.5
|
21
|
84.7
|
11
|
28
|
5
|
||||
|
4
|
SF
|
41.1
|
16
|
43.3
|
10
|
84.4
|
12
|
10
|
2
|
||||
|
3
|
NYJ
|
33.6
|
26
|
48.7
|
3
|
82.3
|
13
|
31
|
(11)
|
||||
|
4
|
CHI
|
48.6
|
4
|
32.5
|
26
|
81.1
|
14
|
24
|
7
|
||||
|
5
|
NE
|
37.0
|
21
|
43.8
|
9
|
80.8
|
15
|
21
|
3
|
||||
|
3
|
SD
|
47.9
|
5
|
32.7
|
25
|
80.6
|
16
|
18
|
(7)
|
||||
|
3
|
BAL
|
30.6
|
29
|
48.1
|
4
|
78.7
|
17
|
11
|
(3)
|
||||
|
3
|
DAL
|
44.8
|
12
|
33.8
|
24
|
78.6
|
18
|
21
|
4
|
||||
|
1
|
ATL
|
46.6
|
10
|
31.9
|
27
|
78.5
|
19
|
14
|
0
|
||||
|
3
|
CLE
|
32.1
|
28
|
46.1
|
7
|
78.2
|
20
|
26
|
0
|
||||
|
2
|
BUF
|
37.8
|
19
|
39.2
|
17
|
77.0
|
21
|
9
|
3
|
||||
|
1
|
WAS
|
42.9
|
14
|
34.0
|
23
|
76.9
|
22
|
6
|
(2)
|
||||
|
3
|
TEN
|
36.0
|
23
|
39.1
|
18
|
75.1
|
23
|
3
|
8
|
||||
|
2
|
OAK
|
36.3
|
22
|
38.6
|
19
|
74.8
|
24
|
14
|
1
|
||||
|
1
|
PIT
|
32.5
|
27
|
41.2
|
13
|
73.7
|
25
|
12
|
(9)
|
||||
|
3
|
ARI
|
33.8
|
24
|
39.8
|
16
|
73.6
|
26
|
17
|
(2)
|
||||
|
3
|
MIA
|
33.7
|
25
|
36.0
|
22
|
69.7
|
27
|
7
|
1
|
||||
|
3
|
STL
|
37.5
|
20
|
30.8
|
29
|
68.3
|
28
|
27
|
6
|
||||
|
0
|
TB
|
26.9
|
31
|
41.0
|
14
|
67.9
|
29
|
4
|
0
|
||||
|
1
|
MIN
|
39.2
|
18
|
25.5
|
32
|
64.7
|
30
|
8
|
0
|
||||
|
0
|
NYG
|
28.8
|
30
|
28.8
|
30
|
57.6
|
31
|
1
|
(16)
|
||||
|
0
|
JAC
|
19.1
|
32
|
28.5
|
31
|
47.6
|
32
|
2
|
(6)
|
||||
Each week I will examine a new angle in the performance
ratings which can assist your handicapping efforts. Last week we examined the top 6 teams in the
ratings; this week let’s talk about the bottom 6. Based on performance ratings I break teams
into “levels” and currently there are 11 levels across the NFL…JAC are along on
the 11th, NYG are alone on the 10th, MIN are alone on the
9th, TB & STL & MIA make up the 8th which covers
the bottom 6 teams in my performance ratings.
Here is a quick examination of these teams:
- #32 Jacksonville Jaguars: the Jags have been mired towards the bottom of these ratings annually, and thus far the same story has rung true for 1st year head coach Gus Bradley. Truth is they are doing nothing well rating 31st offensively and 32nd defensively! The Jags per game performance rating of 47.6 is WELL BELOW any prior season’s worst rating since I started tracking these figures! How far below you ask? In 2012 the Jags were rated 32nd in the performance ratings yet posted a mark of 62.3; in 2011 the Colts were last and their rating was 58.4; in 2010 the Cardinals were 32nd with a rating of 63.2; and in 2009 the Lions were last with a rating of 59.4. As you can see from prior history the worst team in the NFL typically posts a rating around 60 – the Jaguars are well below that mark and because of this slow start it will be near impossible for them to end their season with a rating approaching 60. I am a big proponent of making ATS selections on bad teams in the NFL as they are often the money makers – but suggest staying away from Jacksonville at this point in the season.
- #31 New York Giants: surprisingly the Giants rate 2nd worst in the entire NFL including an offense & defense that are equally poor checking in at 30th. Not helping matters is a TOM that is 32nd in the NFL at (16) / (2.7) per game, nearly impossible to overcome. Of the 8 buckets I analyze for offense & defense (rushing, passing, miscellaneous, overall) they rank inside the top 25 in only rushing defense which is ironic because the GMen have faced the toughest schedule of opponent rushing attacks to date. The Giants play 4 of their next 5 games at home; in a weak NFC East they could still be in the mix come Thanksgiving with a strong run over these next 5, but in order to do that they will have to hang onto the football and show a much greater sense of urgency.
- #30 Minnesota Vikings: last season’s NFC North champions have really struggled so far in 2013 with only 1 SU win (the only SU win across the bottom 4 teams in the performance ratings) – and its largely been the fault of a defense that rates worst in the NFL with a per game rating of just 25.5, which would be the lowest full season defensive rating since I started tracking this data. Amazingly Minnesota ranks 31st or 32nd in all 4 defensive buckets while facing the 9th toughest opponent offenses schedule to date. That information may go against what many people expected because their QB position has been a disaster most of the season, so much so they have brought in free agent Josh Freeman to compete with Christian Ponder & Matt Cassel – yeah, having Adrian Peterson can help an offense that much. The Vikings seem to be hopeless for the rest of this season, perhaps even more so than the NY Giants because TOM is not a critical statistic right now; poor play is the culprit.
- #29 Tampa Bay Bucs: things have been a disaster in Tampa this season with a very public QB controversy, issues with the authority of the head coach, and most importantly poor play overall from the team – in particular on offense. The Bucs defense has played well checking in at #14 overall – and that has come against the 5th toughest schedule of opponent offenses – so we know their defense isn’t the issue. Their 31st ranked offense on the other hand is a problem, and it’s already suffered through a public spat with their starting QB leading to his release and a rookie now under center. A piece of good news for the offense is that rookie QB Mike Glennon should only continue improving with experience, and to this point they have faced the 2nd toughest schedule of opponent defenses. That point is made even more important considering they are projected to face the 26th toughest remaining schedule of opponent defenses – which could present some upside. If the Bucs can get behind their coach, and if their QB play can continue improving they could be a team to keep an eye on going forward as far as ATS wins.
- #28 St. Louis Rams: STL has quite a few conflicting indicators. Right off the bat as they have performed to the level of the 5th worst team in the NFL which could be adjusted down even further considering they have faced a blended SOS rating of 27th which is SIGNIFICANTLY weaker than every other team around them in the performance ratings. The Rams also have 3 SU wins which is 2 more than the only 4 teams below them in the performance ratings COMBINED! One metric that really stands out and is a helping hand towards those extra wins is a TOM that is +6, which is at least 5 better than any other team rated in the bottom 9 of the performance ratings. Thus far they have faced the 22nd toughest schedule versus both opponent offenses & defenses; for the remainder of the season that schedule significantly ramps up as they are currently projected to face the 6th toughest schedule of opponent offenses, and 5th toughest schedule of opponent defenses. Based on some of the favorable breaks they have received so far this season, and considering how their schedule is going to toughen up a lot going forward, the Rams are a team I would keep an eye on to fade moving forward.
- #27 Miami Dolphins: the Fish are the last team with a performance rating below 70, and like the Rams (and #26 Arizona Cardinals) they have also posted 3 SU wins on the season and have a positive +1 TOM. Miami has been somewhat of an offensive disappointment statistically this year as they check in at just #25 despite the addition of highly compensated WR Mike Wallace and the expected growth of second year QB Ryan Tannehill. The irony of their offense is their rating has dropped each year I have been tracking this analysis, and so far in 2013 they have fallen again from last year’s final offense rating of 34.7 to currently 33.7. Not only that, their defense that has rated above 42.0 each season currently sits at 36.0, again well below past performance and certainly 2013’s expectations. Next up let’s examine SOS – they have faced the 8th toughest schedule of opponent offenses & 4th toughest schedule of opponent defenses; my latest projections on remainder of the season has their opponent’s defense strength to remain similar (9th), but their opponent’s offense should significantly weaken (30th) including 31st versus passing offenses. But even with a weakening SOS unless their performance significantly improves (right now of the 8 buckets on both sides of the ball they rank in the top 26 in only one, 22nd in passing defense) it will be another season of disappointment for Dolphins fans.
For this season I am adding a new analysis based on the
performance ratings which I will call red flag/green light for the remainder of
the season. Here I will ONLY use my
performance ratings and give teams that could be undervalued (green light) by
Vegas and are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that
have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the
field performance. The # in ( )
represents how many weeks team was listed in that category:
- Red Flag: STL (2), MIA (2), ARI (2), OAK (2), TEN
- Green Light: DEN (2), CAR (2), HOU (2), GB (2), PHI
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
|
|
AW
|
45
|
1
|
|
NS
|
57
|
2
|
|
NN
|
62
|
3
|
|
NW
|
68
|
4
|
|
AS
|
69
|
5
|
|
AN
|
70
|
6
|
|
AE
|
76
|
7
|
|
NE
|
81
|
8
|
The AFC West checks in as the top division which should come
as no surprise since two of the three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL
reside in that division. It also helps
that Oakland, the division’s worst team, checks in at a not awful 24th. The NFC owns the next 3 spots in the
divisional rankings with the NFC East being the lone outlier and currently the
worst division in the NFL.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk6. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
10.31
|
5.69
|
DAL
|
8.09
|
7.91
|
|
|
MIA
|
8.44
|
7.56
|
PHI
|
7.81
|
8.19
|
|
|
NYJ
|
7.79
|
8.21
|
WAS
|
6.24
|
9.76
|
|
|
BUF
|
6.82
|
9.18
|
NYG
|
4.23
|
11.77
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
9.38
|
6.62
|
DET
|
9.87
|
6.13
|
|
|
CLE
|
7.68
|
8.32
|
GB
|
9.85
|
6.15
|
|
|
BAL
|
7.60
|
8.40
|
CHI
|
8.96
|
7.04
|
|
|
PIT
|
6.16
|
9.84
|
MIN
|
5.74
|
10.26
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
9.37
|
6.63
|
NO
|
10.68
|
5.32
|
|
|
HOU
|
8.99
|
7.02
|
CAR
|
7.97
|
8.03
|
|
|
TEN
|
7.70
|
8.30
|
ATL
|
6.23
|
9.77
|
|
|
JAC
|
2.02
|
13.98
|
TB
|
4.07
|
11.93
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
13.45
|
2.55
|
SEA
|
11.89
|
4.11
|
|
|
KC
|
10.72
|
5.28
|
SF
|
9.98
|
6.02
|
|
|
SD
|
7.14
|
8.86
|
ARI
|
7.60
|
8.40
|
|
|
OAK
|
6.10
|
9.90
|
STL
|
7.14
|
8.86
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 HOU @ #3 CIN
|
#6 GB @ #3 DET
|
|||||
|
#5 KC @ #4 IND
|
#5 SF @ #4 DAL
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
|
#2 NE
|
#2 NO
|
|||||
Here is a matrix that shows playoff seeding projections
after each week’s action:
|
NFC
|
AFC
|
|||||||||||||
|
Wk1
|
Wk2
|
Wk3
|
Wk4
|
Wk5
|
Wk6
|
Wk1
|
Wk2
|
Wk3
|
Wk4
|
Wk5
|
Wk6
|
|||
|
ARI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BAL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
|||||||||||||
|
CAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CIN
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
|
|
CHI
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
CLE
|
|||||||||
|
DAL
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
DEN
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
DET
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
HOU
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
||||
|
GB
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
|
6
|
6
|
IND
|
6
|
|
|
|
6
|
4
|
|
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
|||||||||||||
|
NO
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
KC
|
|
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
|||||||||
|
PHI
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
NE
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
SEA
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
NYJ
|
|||||||
|
SF
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
OAK
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
STL
|
PIT
|
|||||||||||||
|
TB
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WAS
|
TEN
|
|||||||||||||
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:
|
1
|
DEN
|
|
2
|
SEA
|
|
3
|
NO
|
|
4
|
SF
|
|
4
|
GB
|
|
6
|
HOU
|
|
7
|
KC
|
|
8
|
CAR
|
|
9
|
IND
|
|
9
|
DET
|
|
11
|
CIN
|
|
12
|
NE
|
|
13
|
CHI
|
|
14
|
ATL
|
|
15
|
PHI
|
|
16
|
SD
|
|
16
|
DAL
|
|
18
|
MIA
|
|
19
|
WAS
|
|
19
|
ARI
|
|
21
|
TEN
|
|
21
|
PIT
|
|
21
|
BAL
|
|
24
|
STL
|
|
24
|
CLE
|
|
24
|
BUF
|
|
27
|
NYJ
|
|
28
|
OAK
|
|
28
|
MIN
|
|
30
|
NYG
|
|
31
|
TB
|
|
32
|
JAC
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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