Thursday, March 6, 2014

NBA 2013-2014: Performance Ratings, Power Ratings & Projected Playoff Seeds thru 03/05/14



OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
Team
SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK
Minnesota
38
4

43
7

81
1
Oklahoma City
49
7

39
4

88
2
Houston
36
3

57
12

93
3
L.A. Clippers
33
1

60
15

93
3
Portland
35
2

61
16

96
5
Indiana
70
21

30
1

100
6
Toronto
49
7

51
10

100
6
San Antonio
65
15

36
3

101
8
Chicago
73
24

31
2

104
9
Charlotte
67
18

41
5

108
10
Golden State
67
18

41
5

108
10
Memphis
63
13

47
9

110
12
Phoenix
49
7

70
20

119
13
Washington
75
25

44
8

119
13
Cleveland
65
15

56
11

121
15
Detroit
57
12

68
17

125
16
Atlanta
72
23

57
12

129
17
Sacramento
46
6

84
26

130
18
Denver
51
10

80
23

131
19
Miami
63
13

68
17

131
19
New Orleans
42
5

91
30

133
21
Dallas
51
10

83
25

134
22
Brooklyn
66
17

72
21

138
23
Orlando
82
27

59
14

141
24
New York
68
20

79
22

147
25
Boston
86
28

69
19

155
26
Utah
70
21

89
29

159
27
L.A. Lakers
78
26

82
24

160
28
Milwaukee
91
29

86
27

177
29
Philadelphia
103
30

86
27

189
30

               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.  Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:


HOME
ROAD

Power Rating
Power Rating
Miami
117.0
113.0
L.A. Clippers
116.2
112.2
Indiana
115.6
111.6
Oklahoma City
115.6
111.6
Golden State
114.2
111.2
San Antonio
114.2
110.7
Dallas
113.7
110.7
Toronto
113.1
110.6
Phoenix
113.2
110.2
Houston
113.3
109.8
Washington
112.3
109.8
Minnesota
112.0
109.5
Memphis
110.9
108.4
Portland
111.9
108.4
Detroit
110.2
108.2
New York
109.7
107.7
Brooklyn
110.2
107.2
Chicago
110.1
107.1
Charlotte
109.5
107.0
New Orleans
109.0
107.0
Atlanta
109.7
106.7
Denver
108.6
106.6
Sacramento
108.1
106.1
Cleveland
107.8
105.8
Boston
107.1
105.1
Orlando
106.1
104.1
L.A. Lakers
105.6
103.6
Utah
105.5
103.5
Milwaukee
103.4
101.4
Philadelphia
102.0
100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups. 
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:


Win %

ATS Win %

Projected Wins

Current SOS

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

SOS
RANK
Miami
0.741
3

0.482
18

60.94
1

0.552
6
L.A. Clippers
0.677
7

0.581
3

56.19
5

0.507
13
Indiana
0.754
1

0.550
7

59.92
3

0.553
4
Oklahoma City
0.754
1

0.567
5

60.15
2

0.571
1
Golden State
0.613
8

0.508
15

51.17
8

0.538
7
San Antonio
0.733
4

0.483
16

58.07
4

0.568
2
Dallas
0.581
10

0.548
8

48.55
9

0.522
10
Toronto
0.559
12

0.603
2

47.20
11

0.515
11
Phoenix
0.583
9

0.644
1

48.14
10

0.526
8
Houston
0.689
5

0.542
9

54.44
6

0.553
4
Washington
0.525
14

0.567
5

44.43
13

0.499
17
Minnesota
0.500
16

0.517
14

42.91
15

0.509
12
Memphis
0.567
11

0.466
19

46.18
12

0.525
9
Portland
0.689
5

0.541
10

53.67
7

0.556
3
Detroit
0.393
20

0.450
24

34.72
20

0.465
24
New York
0.355
24

0.403
29

31.79
22

0.460
25
Brooklyn
0.508
15

0.525
12

41.07
16

0.500
16
Chicago
0.557
13

0.525
13

43.89
14

0.505
14
Charlotte
0.459
17

0.569
4

37.84
17

0.487
18
New Orleans
0.393
20

0.439
25

33.52
21

0.478
21
Atlanta
0.441
18

0.466
19

36.36
18

0.481
20
Denver
0.433
19

0.433
26

35.57
19

0.486
19
Sacramento
0.361
23

0.458
22

30.37
24

0.476
22
Cleveland
0.387
22

0.452
23

31.52
23

0.459
26
Boston
0.328
27

0.483
16

27.42
25

0.448
27
Orlando
0.302
28

0.426
27

25.56
28

0.439
28
L.A. Lakers
0.344
25

0.533
11

26.81
26

0.503
15
Utah
0.344
25

0.466
19

26.63
27

0.474
23
Milwaukee
0.200
30

0.417
28

17.35
30

0.414
30
Philadelphia
0.246
29

0.361
30

19.39
29

0.422
29

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season (and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get).  Based on these projections the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that have a chance at reaching playoffs.  Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City 60-22
#2 San Antonio 58-24
#3 LA Clippers 56-26
#4 Houston 54-28
#5 Portland 54-28
#6 Golden State 51-31
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Phoenix 48-34
#9 Memphis 46-36
#10 Minnesota 43-39

Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 61-21
#2 Indiana 60-22
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Washington 44-38
#5 Chicago 44-38
#6 Brooklyn 41-41
#7 Charlotte 38-44
#8 Atlanta 36-46
#9 Detroit 35-47
#10 New York 32-50
#11 Cleveland 32-50

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014

No comments:

Post a Comment