Thursday, March 6, 2014

NCAA Basketball 2014: Conference Tournament Previews for MAAC, MVC, WCC



To show how I apply statistics and power ratings to various matchups here is a look at each of the three conference tournaments tipping off today.

SEED
TEAM
OFF
DEF
SUM
RANK
SOS
SUM
RANK
RATING
2
Manhattan
135
105
240
56
-0.016
236
106
129.0
1
Iona
145
59
204
173
0.073
219
131
127.0
3
Quinnipiac
152
74
226
91
-0.055
214
136
126.0
4
Canisius
156
53
209
150
-0.028
203
158
125.0
5
Siena
118
71
189
228
0.008
190
181
123.5
11
Niagara
126
54
180
253
0.029
185
192
123.0
10
Fairfield
64
106
170
282
0.048
178
208
122.0
6
Marist
105
69
174
271
0.009
176
214
122.0
8
Rider
119
57
176
265
-0.024
172
221
121.0
9
Monmouth
107
86
193
214
-0.112
171
222
121.0
7
Saint Peter's
87
96
183
243
-0.116
162
244
120.0

There are my ratings for each MAAC team this season.  Manhattan has performed the best from this conference on both a non-SOS adjusted (#56) and SOS-adjusted (#106) basis this season.  Despite that the Jaspers head into this conference tournament as the #2 seed behind #1 Iona, with #3 Quinnipiac also in the mix for the only bid this conference will receive to the NCAA Tournament.

Examining tonight’s action in the opening round:

Rider -3 vs. Monmouth: my ratings suggest this should be closer to a PK game, and since typically underdogs are better bets on neutral courts I would lean towards Monmouth in this game from a strict statistical perspective – but you also must recognize other variables come into play when deciding on a selection.  Rider won both regular season meetings, but is 1-0-1 ATS pushing a 6pt home win in late January.  These teams haven’t met since that matchup, and based on other variables Monmouth seems to have solid value here.

St. Peter’s -2.5 vs. Fairfield: my ratings suggest this game should be Fairfield -2 so we have about 4.5 “value points” here.  St. Peter’s won both regular season matchups between these teams but both victories came by just 1 point, with the road team covering as an underdog in each matchup.  Fairfield not only has the value, but also some strong situational data supporting them as a play this evening.

Marist -4 vs. Niagara: my ratings suggest this should be Niagara -1 so we have about 5 value points here.  Considering Niagara has performed better on a non-SOS adjusted & SOS adjusted basis suggests there is clear value on the Purple Eagles tonight.  These teams split their regular season matchups with the home team winning & covering each game.  Marist has enjoyed the statistical edge on their meetings this season however – which shows why handicapping is more of an art vs. a science – what should you weigh more, season performance or performance in head to head matchups when talking statistics?

*Always remember regular season contests between teams plays a big part in potential outcomes in the conference tournament, as does how well or poorly a team is playing at this moment.  But using power ratings are usually a strong guide as deviations of more than 4 points are suggestive of value by itself.


SEED
TEAM
OFF
DEF
SUM
RANK
SOS
SUM
RANK
RATING
1
Wichita State
149
146
295
7
0.059
312.5
31
138.0
3
Northern Iowa
125
90
215
133
0.225
263.3
78
132.0
2
Indiana State
113
104
217
127
0.080
234.4
107
128.5
5
Illinois State
105
90
195
204
0.137
221.8
128
127.0
8
Drake
100
97
197
196
0.113
219.2
130
127.0
4
Missouri State
112
90
202
182
0.049
211.9
141
126.0
6
Southern Illinois
104
96
200
187
0.040
208.1
148
125.5
7
Bradley
81
104
185
239
-0.039
177.8
210
122.0
9
Evansville
88
64
152
322
0.066
162.1
243
120.0
10
Loyola (IL)
68
90
158
310
-0.042
151.3
261
119.0

Here is the way the MVC looks to us this season.  Wichita State has been the biggest story of the college basketball season posting an undefeated 31-0 mark to date – but how good a team are they really is what people want to know?  In our model they rate 7th best on a non-SOS adjusted basis, but when taking into account strength of schedule we slide them down to 31st.  Too far a drop?  Perhaps, but that is what the model shows.  We do show they are approximately 6 points better than the 2nd best MVC team, Northern Iowa, and 9.5 points better than the 3rd MVC team, Indiana State – which are extremely big variances amongst teams in the same conference.

Examining tonight’s action in the opening round:

Drake -2.5 vs. Evansville: we have this # closer to Drake -7, suggesting some value on the Bulldogs tonight.  These teams split their regular season matchups with each home team prevailing and covering.

Bradley -2.5 vs. Loyola Chicago: we have this # at Bradley -3, right on target with current #’s.  Bradley has won & covered both regular season meetings.


SEED
TEAM
OFF
DEF
SUM
RANK
SOS
SUM
RANK
RATING
2
Brigham Young
164
64
228
82
0.293
294.7
52
136.0
4
Saint Mary's
141
113
254
25
0.155
293.2
53
136.0
1
Gonzaga
139
103
242
50
0.178
285.1
56
135.0
3
San Francisco
149
80
229
78
0.208
276.6
66
134.0
8
Pacific
133
77
210
148
0.243
261.1
80
132.0
6
San Diego
97
110
207
157
0.128
233.5
109
128.5
10
Loyola Marymount
128
58
186
234
0.250
232.6
110
128.5
9
Santa Clara
120
82
202
182
0.141
230.5
112
128.5
7
Portland
140
75
215
133
0.054
226.7
117
128.0
5
Pepperdine
113
62
175
268
0.146
200.6
162
124.5

Lastly for today here is the WCC, which actually has 5 teams ranked in the Top 80 teams in the country.  We also see more variability here where team record/rating may not tie into their true performance – for example Pepperdine is the #5 seed yet according to our model they have played the worst basketball in the entire conference this season.  Right now this conference has Gonzaga who is a lock for a bid, any BYU who is currently clearly on the right side of the bubble but may have to avoid a first round loss in this tournament to secure their spot.  The remaining teams would need to win the conference’s automatic bid, and judging by the ratings above it seems St. Mary’s (although it’s been a down year for the Gaels), San Francisco and possibly Pacific may have a shot at making that run.

Examining tonight’s action:

Portland -3.5 vs. Loyola Marymount: we would set this # closer to a PK, suggesting there is some value on backing the Lions in this one.  Portland has won and covered both regular season matchups, and the public is currently backing the Pilots making a stronger case for a Marymount selection here.

Pacific -2 vs. Santa Clara: this # is very close to our Pacific -3.5 line.  These teams split in the regular season with each winning & covering on their homecourt.

*Remember, as the postseason is upon us most games will be taking place on neutral courts.  The public will typically back a lot of small favorites not understanding that neutral courts often result in closer games when teams are equally focused mentally and emotionally.  Do not be afraid to buck the public and back underdogs that are getting no love.

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