Friday, February 20, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 02/19/15



This is our fourth installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament and comes as we approach the end of February & the stretch run of this college basketball season.  

This week let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection!  Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]


**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI rank shown first [pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown second for each team**

**For one bid leagues I will generally have projected league winner as current first place team; I will show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not selected as my automatic bid winner to give a feel for their competition in parenthesis**

**Last key to remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them later out of blue.  Leveraging that idea further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not want to slide teams down levels, only up.  Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a level at this point in the season**

America East: Albany #201/#134 (Stony Brook #138/#121): Albany sits at 12-1 in conference play giving them a 2 game edge in loss column over Vermont  & 3 games over both Stony Brook & New Hampshire.  Those are the only four teams currently above .500 in league play; look for Stony Brook to possibly surprise in the conference tournament as they hold the highest SBPI & RPI ranking in the conference.

American Athletic: SMU #60/#18
                Need Wins: Temple #44/#30, Cincinnati #64/#55, Tulsa #63/#49

Atlantic Ten: VCU #17/#14
                Need Wins: Dayton #57/#29, UMass #101/#38, Davidson #81/#47, Rhode Island #68/#66

ACC: Duke #2/#5
                Looking Good: Virginia #15/#3, North Carolina #18/#12, Louisville #9/#23, Notre Dame #86/#26
                Need Wins: NC State #29/#43, Miami #66/#65, Pittsburgh #42/#44, Clemson #65/#86

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast #228/#119 (North Florida #181/#188): those two Florida teams along with USC Upstate are the only 3 teams above .500 in conference play; however I would also toss in Northern Kentucky & Lipscomb as having a chance at earning the conference’s automatic bid as those five teams are all rated within 4 points of each other on a neutral court according to SBPI.  FGC is the clear favorite based on recent success & will likely earn this conference’s automatic bid once again be a dangerous #14/#15 seed.

Big 12: Kansas #7/#1
                Looking Good: Oklahoma #20/#15, Baylor #6/#13, Iowa St. #25/#11, Oklahoma State #12/#28
                Need Wins: Texas #26/#32, West Virginia #13/#25

Big East: Villanova #3/#4
                Looking Good: Providence #14/#21, Butler #5/#24, Georgetown #16/#20
                Need Wins: Xavier #19/#33, St. John’s #54/#37

Big Sky: Eastern Washington #212/#76 (Northern Arizona #163/#199): the Big Sky has 4 teams above .500 in conference play – the two mentioned here along with Sacramento State & Montana.  With 12 teams in the conference there is an unbalanced schedule which could impact standings – perhaps suggesting power ratings to be a better indicator of who may earn the conference’s automatic bid; keep an eye on tomorrow’s EWU@NARIZ game.

Big South: High Point #139/#94 (Gardner-Webb #129/#164): the Big South has FIVE teams within ½ game of first place as conference play concludes next weekend with Gardner-Webb currently the highest rated SBPI team but they check in at 7th place in the current standings!  This conference also has an unbalanced schedule with 11 teams & 18 conference games – not as unbalanced as the Big Sky but head to head regular season meetings along with power ratings could be the best indicator of which team may earn the conference’s automatic bid.  The conference tournament will be played at Coastal Carolina, who are the defending champions & one of the five teams within ½ game of first place currently – this should be one of the most exciting under-the-radar conference tournaments come early March.

Big Ten: Wisconsin #8/#6
                Looking Good: Maryland #55/#10, Indiana #51/#34, Ohio State #23/#36
                Need Wins: Michigan State #32/#31, Purdue #40/#58, Iowa #30/#57, Illinois #38/#42

Big West: UC Davis #278/#85 (Cal Poly #82/#155): UC Davis has sat atop the standings all season but it’s hard for me to get behind them as the favorite in the conference’s tournament because of their SBPI rating of #278!  Cal Poly sits at 6-6 but I have them as a favorite over the rest of the Big West on a neutral court – and this tournament will be played at the Honda Center with an interesting twist of re-seeding teams following each round of play.  Also keep an eye on Long Beach State that has played 14 games vs. current RPI Top 100 teams (compare that to UC Davis who has not played ONE RPI Top 100 team all season).  This should be a very competitive tournament especially come the semifinal round.

Colonial: William & Mary #124/#106 (UNC Wilmington #151/#156): the CAA has 4 teams tied atop the conference with 3 games remaining for each team in the full round robin conference schedule.  Of the four teams tied at the top James Madison is easily the weakest; I would replace them with Hofstra as far as the top four most likely teams to earn this conference’s automatic bid.  This conference tournament will be played in Baltimore & will be relatively wide open as far as those top 4 teams go.

Conference USA: Louisiana Tech #123/#70 (Old Dominion #94/#62): with 14 teams & 18 conference games the CUSA slate is unbalanced for certain which I always feel lends more credence to power ratings vs. conference records.  With that in mind although ODU has certainly struggled in conference play they remain the highest rated team in both SBPI & RPI.  There are 5 legitimate threats to win this conference title IMO – and keep in mind 4 teams earn a first round bye which could be critical.  UAB is among the five teams mentioned to be vying for this conference’s automatic bid – and the tournament will be played on their home court giving them that small edge that could be the difference.  One thing is for certain – the winner of this conference tournament will be a dangerous #12/#13 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Horizon: Green Bay #73/#46 (Valparaiso #107/#64): the Horizon will likely come down to those two teams along with Cleveland State – those three are within 1 game of each other with games remaining between them over the next 10 days (home court has been protected in each game between these three teams so far).  This conference tournament is played on campus sites at highest seed with semifinals played at #1 seed (the top 2 seeds get a bye to that round) & the championship played at the highest seed also.  With that in mind these last three games of the conference schedule could be critical to earning this automatic bid.

Ivy: Harvard #80/#51 (Yale #35/#61): Harvard jumps Yale in this installment based on their 52-50 road win at Yale a week ago.  With no postseason conference tournament Yale has dug itself a hole here despite being the top rated SBPI team in the conference – but there is still hope for the Bulldogs.

MAAC: Iona #174/#48 (Canisius #169/#157): the MAAC conference tournament should be highly contested as the SBPI has SEVEN teams within 2 points of each other on a neutral court!  This year’s tournament will take place in Albany, NY with the top 5 teams getting a bye to the QF round (Iona, Rider, Monmouth & Manhattan will all receive a bye & are all among the 7 teams mentioned in opening sentence here; the 5th team could be any of four teams currently).  The Manhattan Jaspers are the defending champions.

MAC: Toledo #83/#73 (Buffalo #58/#56): despite having two divisions all teams are thrown into the same bracket with an interesting layout; teams seeded #3 & #4 receive a bye to the QF round to face the winners a PAIR of early round games!  Teams seeded #1 & #2 receive a bye to the SF round to face the winners of the aforementioned matchups – starting in the QF round all games are played at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.  Needless to say the seeding will be key in this conference tournament – a team like Buffalo will not receive a bye into the SF round but could be dangerous nevertheless checking in as the top ranked MAC team according to SBPI & RPI.

MEAC: North Carolina Central #232/#117 (Maryland-Eastern Shore #243/#206): UNCC sits atop the standings with a 12-0 mark while Norfolk State is 2nd with 3 losses & teams tied for 3rd have 5 losses.  Considering Central is also the top ranked team according to SBPI & RPI they seem to be the clear favorites to win the MEAC’s automatic bid – but beating teams three times in one season, which they would be forced to do in possibly every round in succession, will not be easy especially also considering the tournament will be played at Norfolk State, who currently checks in at 2nd place as mentioned above.

Missouri Valley: Wichita State #27/#17
                If WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field.
                Looking Good: Northern Iowa #79/#16

Mountain West: San Diego State #37/#19
                If SAN DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field. 
                Need Wins: Colorado State #84/#27, Boise State #56/#39

Northeast: St. Francis NY #226/#178 (Mount St. Mary’s #211/#173): the top 8 teams will reach the postseason conference tournament (FDU & Central Connecticut State already eliminated) with games being played in standard format at home of higher seed through the championship game.  St. Francis NY sits ahead of 2nd place Bryant by 3 games in the loss column & by 4 games over the pair tied for 3rd suggesting pretty big gap between them & the rest of the conference.  They are clearly the team to beat although others could make some noise.

Ohio Valley: Murray State #147/#72 (Eastern Kentucky #112/#152): Murray State has dominated the Valley this season posting 13-0 mark in conference play – although they appear to be in the weaker division of the two within the conference.  The top 8 OVC team make the conference tournament with seeds #3 & #4 earning a bye to the QF round while seeds #1 (Murray State already locked in) & #2 earn a bye to the SF round.  All games are played in Nashville at a neutral site & the Racers are no lock at all to win this conference tournament as numerous teams could give them a run as the SBPI would have two teams (Morehead State & Eastern Kentucky) favored over them on a neutral court.

Pac 12: Arizona #4/#7
                Looking Good: Utah #10/#9
                Need Wins: UCLA #24/#45, Stanford #31/#53, Oregon #92/#60

Patriot: Bucknell #196/#151 (Colgate #177/#194): the Patriot League has FIVE teams rated within 1 point of each other according to SBPI, suggesting a wide open conference tournament.  Here the top 10 Patriot teams earn the right to compete for the league’s automatic bid with seeds #1 & #2 getting a bye to the QF round with all games played on campus site’s at the higher seed.  Bucknell & Colgate appear to be the top 2 teams, but as many as five teams have a chance at earning this conference’s automatic bid.

SEC: Kentucky #1/#2
                Looking Good: Arkansas #28/#22
                Need Wins: Ole Miss #46/#35, Georgia #50/#41, Texas A&M #43/#40, LSU #76/#50, Alabama #47/#69

Southern: Wofford #128/#52 (Chattanooga #175/#126): defending champion Wofford is the team to beat checking in well ahead of the 2nd best team according to SBPI & RPI, although they do not have a shot at earning an at-large bid going just 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100 this season.  That being said the Terriers have all 5 starters back from last year’s team and should handle their business again and be a dangerous #13/#12 seed come March.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin #86/#71 (Sam Houston State #136/#96): the Southland tournament will be played in Katy, TX with seeds #3 & #4 earning a bye to the QF round while the top 2 seeds, locked in to be the two mentioned (order not known yet) will receive a bye to the SF round.  The Lumberjacks & Bearkats are well ahead of the rest of the conference and figure to meet in the championship for all the marbles in what should be a highly competitive game – the winner of which will be a very dangerous #13/#14 seed.

SWAC: Texas Southern #238/#158 (Southern #298/#161): the SWAC winner will almost certainly be either a #16 seed or involved in one of the two #16 seed play-in games as this conference ranks dead last in SBPI with SIX teams ranked in the worst 17 teams in all of college basketball.  Along with the two teams mentioned Alabama State is among the contenders for the automatic bid as they current sit at the top of the standings but have a worse power rating according to SBPI & RPI to the two “Southern” schools.

Summit: South Dakota State #148/#95 (Oral Roberts #114/#183): SD State is currently tied with ND State atop the standings but the SBPI has ND State ranked 6th of the 9 teams in the Summit, thus the two mentioned here.  The conference tournament will take place in Sioux Falls, SD using a standard 8 team standard layout.

Sun Belt: UL Monroe #185/#113 (Georgia State #154/#82): the Sun Belt tournament will be played in New Orleans with seeds #3 & #4 receiving a bye to the QF round and seeds #1 & #2 receiving a bye to the SF round.  That type of advantage can be enormous, especially amongst UL-Monroe or UL-Lafayette who will be playing virtually home games compared to the rest of the conference.  Texas State is the top ranked SBPI team in the Sun Belt and could be a decent sleeper to keep an eye on.

West Coast: Gonzaga #22/#8
                If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.  

WAC: New Mexico State #160/#136 (UMKC #264/#295): the WAC is all about New Mexico State who has a big edge in both SBPI & RPI on any other conference team.  The Aggies are already locked into the #1 seed & with that receive a bye to the SF round.  It would be a shock if anyone other than NMST won this conference tournament; if it’s the Aggies they are likely a #14/#15 seed, while anyone else is either a #16 or taking part in the play-in #16 seed games.

FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 17 (unchanged)
Currently I project 49 of the 68 bids are earned. 

NEED WINS: 29

As of this moment we have 29 teams battling for those last 19 bids that remain “open”
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference; teams highlighted in yellow are LAST FIVE IN): 

TEAM
RECORD
C REC
1-25
26-50
51-100
ROAD
NEU
SOS
NC SOS
BEST WIN
TOP NC WIN
TEMPLE
19-8
10-4
1-4
0-1
5-1
6-4
1-2
51
42
1 KAN
1 KAN
CINCINNATI
17-9
8-5
3-1
2-3
1-2
3-5
1-1
48
24
2X 18 SMU
19 SDST
DAYTON
20-5
10-3
0-1
2-2
3-2
4-4
2-1
132
119
35 MISS
35 MISS
NC STATE
15-11
6-7
2-4
2-1
3-5
3-4
0-1
2
26
5 DUKE
39 BOISE
MIAMI, FLA
17-9
7-6
1-3
2-2
3-0
5-3
3-1
76
196
@5 DUKE
42 ILL
TEXAS
17-9
6-7
1-6
0-2
4-1
4-5
2-0
22
90
25 WVU
57 IOWA
W VIRGINIA
20-6
8-5
2-4
1-2
4-0
4-3
6-0
68
217
1 KAN
52 WOFF
XAVIER
17-10
7-7
3-3
0-1
5-2
4-6
1-2
28
52
2X 20 GTWN
69 ALAB
ST. JOHNS
16-9
6-7
2-6
1-0
2-1
3-5
2-1
30
59
2X 21 PROV
54 STMARY
MICHIGAN ST
18-8
9-4
0-4
2-2
4-0
5-3
2-2
44
63
34 IND
120 RIDER
PURDUE
18-9
10-4
0-2
4-2
4-1
4-4
2-2
77
251
2X 34 IND
43 NC ST
IOWA
16-10
7-6
2-4
2-2
1-2
4-3
0-3
18
101
10 MARY
@12 UNC
COLORADO ST
21-5
9-5
1-1
1-1
2-2
6-4
3-0
95
120
19 SDST
67 UTEP
UCLA
16-11
8-6
1-5
0-0
5-5
2-7
1-3
20
60
9 UTAH
103 LBST
STANFORD
16-9
7-6
0-3
1-2
6-1
4-6
1-1
74
104
@32 TEX
@32 TEX
OLE MISS
18-8
9-4
1-2
1-3
5-0
7-3
3-0
42
82
@22 ARK
55 CINCY
GEORGIA
16-9
7-6
0-3
2-1
4-2
5-4
0-2
33
66
35 MISS
68 HALL
TEXAS A&M
18-7
9-4
0-2
2-3
4-2
4-3
2-2
83
134
2X 50 LSU
84 ASU
LSU
18-8
7-6
1-1
3-2
5-2
6-3
1-2
91
183
@25 WVU
@25 WVU

FIRST FIVE OUT – alphabetical order by conference:
Tulsa
Massachusetts
Pittsburgh
Illinois
Boise State

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (7)
ACC (7)
B10 (7)
BE (6)
SEC (6)
P12 (4)
AAC (3)
A10 (2)
MWC (2)
MVC (2)

KEY GAMES TO CLOSE REGULAR SEASON:
February 23rd: Xavier at St. John’s
February 25th: Davidson at Rhode Island
February 25th: Illinois at Iowa
March 4th: Cincinnati at Tulsa

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