Well an exciting 2012-2013 NCAA basketball regular season is in the books, and we now move on to a week of conference tournament action, followed by the postseason tournaments – highlighted of course by the NCAA Tournament. But before we reach Selection Sunday there is a lot of action to play out including the AQ/BCS conference tournaments – in today’s article we will focus on the Grand Daddy of them All, the Big East Tournament!
Where: United Center, Chicago
When: March 14-17
Format: 1st Rd (Seeds #5-12), QF (Four Rd1 winners & Seeds 1-4), SF, Championship
Recent Winners: 2012 – Michigan State ; 2011 – Ohio State ; 2010 – Ohio State ; 2009 – Purdue ; 2008 – Wisconsin. Over the last five years the B10 has sent 3 teams to the Final Four (2009 Michigan State runner-up, 2010 Michigan State, 2012 Ohio State) but none of the conference tournament champions advanced the deep into the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tournament Impact: 5 teams (IND, MICH, MSU, OSU, WISC) are likely to earn bids in the field, while Minnesota & Illinois both finished at 8-10 in conference play. Both of those teams would feel a lot more secure with their at-large hopes if they were able to secure one win in this tournament; unfortunately they play each other in the 1st round.
Analysis: the Big Ten was regarded as the toughest conference for most of the ’12-’13 regular season, which should lead to a very exciting postseason tournament in Chicago this weekend. The Michigan Wolverines are the only team of the 5 locks for the big dance that is playing in the 1st round; however, a hugely critical game will kick-start this tourney when #8 Illinois faces #9 Minnesota. There are many opinions on whether these two teams are already in the Field of 68, or if they have more work to be done – but what is sure is only one of these teams can win this game, leaving the loser at a perilous mark of 8-11 during Big Ten play. I feel the Illini are a better team than Minnesota, who has been really up & down all season long, especially on the road – and give the edge in this game to Illinois. The Illini winning this matchup is probably the best case scenario for the entire league as the Gophers probably have the stronger resume, and a better chance at earning a bid with a loss than Illinois does. Let’s jump ahead to the QF round, examining each game in more detail:
- #1 Indiana vs. #8 Illinois: these teams met once during the regular season on 2/7 in Champaign, and the Illini put together a furious run to close the game to beat then #1 Indiana 74-72 on a brilliant inbounds play in the final second. Indiana enters this tournament just 2-2 SU over their L4, and would like to get on a roll as we head into the big dance. Illinois would be feeling good about itself should they beat Minnesota in the opening round because that victory would seal up their NCAA Tournament bid. Considering those two points, that Indiana is working with in season revenge, and the fact the Big Ten tournament has been won by the #1 seed in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and I am backing the Hoosiers to take care of the Illini in QF #1.
- #2 Ohio State vs. #7 Purdue: no team has dominated the Big Ten Tournament like the Buckeyes who head into the 2013 version on a 4 year streak of reaching the Championship game, winning it all twice. These two teams squared off once during the regular season, in early January, and the Buckeyes escaped West Lafayette with a 74-64 win. After looking suspect in late February OSU has won 5 straight games (including wins over Michigan State & Indiana) to close their regular season; on the flip side Purdue closed 3-2, but did beat Wisconsin & Minnesota, and had Michigan on the ropes at home before blowing the game late. This looks like a tough task for the Boilermakers, although I feel on a neutral court this game will be a lot closer than the experts think – Purdue will mix it up physically with anyone, which should lead to a close, low scoring game.
- #3 Michigan State vs. #6 Iowa: MSU has typically not done as well in the B10 Tournament as they do in the NCAA Tournament, as the Spartans have only reached the Championship Game ONCE since 2001 (and that once was last season when they won the conference’s automatic bid). This season MSU has overachieved in many people’s eyes, posting a 24-7 overall record, and only losing one game all season by more than 8 points (13 @ Minnesota in a game that was very close in the final 2 minutes, but foul shots extended the final margin of victory) – we know Sparty is solid, and will be in almost any game down to the wire – which is why they are so successful in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa on the other hand was able to finish conference play 9-9, ahead of both Illinois & Minnesota, but needs to at least reach the B10 Final to have any hopes are receiving an at-large bid – and quite frankly I think that’s very possible. Iowa closed their regular season going 6-2, and looking back further there were numerous close losses that could have easily flipped their way & they may have secured an at-large bid already: loss by 4 vs. Indiana, loss by 3 vs. Michigan State, loss by 3 in OT @ Purdue, loss by 3 @ Minnesota, loss by 4 in double OT @ Wisconsin, loss by 4 @ Nebraska – 6 games lost by 4pts or less in conference play. These teams only met once during the regular season, highlighted above – which only gives the Hawkeyes that extra revenge incentive to handle business here. With the Spartans typically not playing their best ball in the B10 Tournament, and a hungry revenge minded Hawkeyes team, I am backing Iowa to beat Michigan State and reach the SF round.
- #4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Michigan: in the last QF of Friday the Wolverines and Badgers are likely to match up for the second time this season. Their first meeting was a memorable one in Madison as the Badgers came out on top 65-62 in OT following a half court 3PT make as time expired to push the game to OT, where Wisky held on. Michigan, who at one time reached #1 in the polls, really struggled since the calendar turned to February: they were 20-1 in Nov/Dec/Jan, but just 5-5 in Feb/Mar. However, on a good note, most of those losses were of the close variety to good teams as on the season they too (like their upstate rivals) had just one loss by more than 8pts (23pt loss @ Michigan State), and 3 of their 6 losses were by just one possession. The Badgers closed out their regular season 7-3 SU over their last 10 including wins over Michigan & Ohio State – so it could certainly be argued they are the hotter team heading into this potential matchup. Michigan has not made a title game appearance in the B10 tournament since beating Purdue to win the championship in 1998; they have reached the SF round in each of the L2 years however. Wisconsin has reached the SF round twice in the L5 years (2012 & 2008), advancing to the Championship Game just once in that time period when they won it all in 2008 over Illinois. I like this Michigan team, and think they have a solid shot at reaching the FF. But first things first, they would like to get on a roll at the United Center – and picking up their second win in as many nights to reach the SF’s would be a great start.
Those results would leave us with a Friday Night SF round of #1 Indiana vs. #5 Michigan followed by #2 Ohio State vs. #6 Iowa. Here is how I would see those games shaking out, which would feature a trio of teams that have Final Four aspirations, along with the upstart Iowa Hawkeyes, who could have an at-large bid on the line vs. Ohio State.
- #1 Indiana vs. #5 Michigan: we all remember their first meeting this season, February 2nd in Bloomington when then #1 Michigan went down to then #3 Indiana 81-73. The rematch was played on the final Saturday of the regular season, and this time #2 Indiana went into Chrysler and narrowly nipped #7 Michigan 72-71 in an absolute barn-burner. These two schools have been amongst the handful of best teams in the country all season, and played two absolute classics during the regular season – so it’s only right they meet one more time (or could more be in the future?), on a neutral court, in the B10 SF’s. We all know by now Indiana secured their first outright Big Ten title for the first time since 1992-1993; what’s more, the Hoosiers have not won the B10 Tournament since its inception in 1998! They have reached the SF round four times (’01, ’02, ’03, ’06), and only advanced to the Championship Game once (2001) before losing to Iowa. The Wolverines success, or lack thereof, in the B10 Tournament is very similar to that of IU: UM has reached the SF round the same four times (’98, ’04, ’11, ’12), and only advanced to the Championship Game once (1998) where they won it all over Purdue. So neither team will be familiar with the success or bright lights of the Big Ten Tournament SF’s! But make no mistake, both of these teams are among the best in America, and will handle the spotlight quite well. Because the Hoosiers won both regular season meetings I lean towards backing the Wolverines here, as Michigan will advance and make their first B10 Championship Game appearance since 1998!
- #2 Ohio State vs. #6 Iowa: if this matchup were to come to fruition many teams across the country currently residing on the bubble would be tuning in and rooting for the Buckeyes hard core! These teams also only met once during the regular season: 1/22 @ Ohio State where the Buckeyes won 72-63. OSU shot the ball much better than Iowa in that game, but an area that really stood out favoring the Hawkeyes was their 19 offensive rebounds in that game. Iowa is ranked #14 in the country rebounding the basketball, and success on the glass is critical to their chances of winning games against ranked teams because they are more times than not on the short end of the stick as far as talent goes. Ohio State is ranked just #119 in rebounds, and truly doesn’t excel in any area as far as statistics are measured. Despite the run the Buckeyes went on to close their regular season I am just not a huge fan of this squad, and with an extra hungry Iowa team meeting the Buckeyes here, combined with in season revenge, and the fact OSU has advanced to the Championship Game in each of the last 4 years, they are long overdue for a correction of sorts, and a new team will shot up on Sunday afternoon for the Championship Game. Iowa takes out Ohio State by crashing the glass, and taking care of the basketball.
That would leave us with a Sunday afternoon Championship Game between #5 Michigan vs. #6 Iowa, which would be quite a difference from the usual at the B10 Tournament where favorites typically roll & advance: the #1 seed has reached the Final in 8 of the L9 championships, and 9 of the 15 tournaments since inception; the #2 seed has reached the Final in 7 of 15 tournaments; the #1 or #2 seed has appeared in 12 of 15 tournaments, with the three outliers being 2009 #5 vs. #3, 2001 #4 vs. #6, and 1998 #4 vs. #3. That tournament has been chalk city baby, but not this season! My projection of #5 vs. #6 would be the highest total seeds to reach the Final since this tournament commenced in 1998.
- #5 Michigan vs. #6 Iowa: what a final this would set up, with no teams that drew a first round bye reaching the Championship Game! These teams met once during the regular season, way back in each team’s second conference game, and the Wolverines came out on top easily 95-67 at home. It’s not that we can completely throw that game out the window, but it did take place a long time ago, when Michigan was playing like the best team in the country, and before Iowa seemingly found its stride recently. Like Ohio State Michigan is not a strong rebounding club, but they did outrebound Iowa in the first meeting between these teams. The biggest edge the Wolverines have over Iowa is scoring the basketball – and that could become a problem for Iowa as they are just not very explosive on the offensive end. Michigan will have a big edge in the backcourt and in scoring punch, and Iowa will be out of gas somewhat after coming up with their big win over Ohio State the night before. Let’s back Michigan to win the B10 Tournament for the first time since the first edition in 1998.
Current Vegas Odds to win the Big East Tournament
Indiana 2/1
Michigan & Michigan State 3/1
Ohio State 4/1
Wisconsin 8/1
Illinois & Minnesota & Purdue 20/1
Iowa 30/1
Penn State & Northwestern & Nebraska 100/1
Examining those odds closely what obviously stands out first is the Iowa Hawkeyes, checking in with the 2nd longest odds 30/1, and I have them projected as reaching the Championship Game. I would certainly recommend a wager on them, while throwing out the bottom trio. As far as the remaining teams go I never see value taking any teams below 5/1 as I prefer to play them on a game to game basis vs. risking hard earned money on such short odds – so let’s eliminate Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State & Ohio State. I do not think Purdue has what it takes to win 4 straight to raise the trophy, but playing whichever team you believe will win between Illinois & Minnesota for small dollars could be a wise investment. Last team not touched on is Wisconsin, and they are probably too short on odds to be worth an investment. In summary, I like a play in Iowa & a small play on either Illinois or Minnesota, depending on which team you believe will advance when they meet tomorrow afternoon (for me, as a reminder, that would be Illinois).
Check back over the next couple days as additional major conference tournament previews are posted!
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