Now that the regular season is complete we can get a firm field on what the Field of 68 will look like come Sunday, BRACKETOLOGY STYLE. In this analysis teams will be grouped in a couple sections, clearly labeled at the top of each. Here is what the Field looks like as of today:
(31) AUTOMATIC BIDS [teams underlined, highlighted and in bold have sealed their bid]
Vermont [replaces last version’s projected winner Stony Brook]
St. Louis
Duke [replaces last version’s projected winner Miami]
Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas
Louisville
Montana
Indiana
Long Beach State
Northeastern
Memphis
Valparaiso
Harvard
Iona [replaces last version’s projected winner Loyola Maryland]
Ohio [replaces last version’s projected winner Akron]
Norfolk State
Creighton
New Mexico
LIU Brooklyn [replaces last version’s projected winner Robert Morris]
Belmont
Arizona
Bucknell
Florida
Davidson
Stephen F. Austin
Southern
South Dakota State
Western Kentucky [replaces last version’s projected winner Middle Tennessee State]
Gonzaga
Louisiana Tech
(25) LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS – these teams are LOCKS to be in the Field of 68 even with an opening round loss in their conference tournaments. These teams are listed in strength order within conferences – for example, VCU is currently rated higher than Butler in our opinion.
A10: VCU, Butler
ACC: Miami, North Carolina, NC State
B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
BE: Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Villanova
B10: Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: Colorado State, UNLV
P12: UCLA
SEC: Missouri
WCC: St. Mary’s
(7) TEAMS THAT WILL LIKELY EARN A BID WITH ONE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN [RPI] – here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket.
A10: Temple [36]
B12: Iowa State [47]
B10: Minnesota [23], Illinois [42]
MWC: San Diego State [30]
P12: Oregon [52], California [48]
(10) TEAMS THAT LIKELY NEED 2+ WINS IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT TO EARN A BID [RPI] – again, here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket.
A10: LaSalle [39], UMass [57]
ACC: Virginia [66]
CUSA: Southern Mississippi [38]
MWC: Boise State [37]
P12: Colorado [34]
SEC: Tennessee [54], Kentucky [50], Alabama [62], Ole Miss [56]
(1) TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT REMAIN ON BUBBLE [RPI]
SB: Middle Tennessee State [28]
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOCKS: 25
56 of 68 BIDS ARE LOCKED UP AS OF GAMES PLAYED ON 3/10
LIKELY “IN” WITH 1 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN: 7
LIKELY “IN” WITH 2+ CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WINS: 10
TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT ON BUBBLE: 1
For this projection we will use the 56 “LOCKS”, the next 7 in the “Likely IN with 1 conference tournament win”, and the following 5 teams to close out the Field of 68: LaSalle, Boise State, Colorado, Tennessee, Kentucky
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS BREAKDOWN & ANALYSIS – here we will examine each conference tournament where bubble teams will be taking part, and attempting to set some goals for each team to earn their own at-large bid.
A10: the two areas to follow in this tournament will be the middle portion of the bracket. In the 5/12 matchup Butler will face Dayton with the winner moving on to meet #4 LaSalle. That game will be a must win for LaSalle to keep their at-large hopes alive. In the 6/11 matchup UMass will tangle with George Washington with the winner moving on to face #3 Temple. UMass definitely needs to beat GW & Temple to remain in consideration of receiving an at-large bid. To summarize, there are three teams in the A10 that still have work to do in hopes of earning a bid. #4 LaSalle must win at least one game, and it would be in their best interest if they faced Butler in their opener; if Dayton was to beat Butler in the opening round LaSalle would likely need two wins – which they may need anyway. #3 Temple at worst needs just one more win to cement their status (they may earn a bid even without one more win). Lastly, #6 UMass is on the outside looking in, and has a lot of work to do – for them to really get into the conversation for an at-large berth they most likely need to beat GW, Temple and also win a SF round game vs. #2 VCU (if seeds held).
ACC: there is only one team to follow closely in this tournament as far as NCAA Tournament status, and that team is Virginia, who sports a record of 21-10/11-7, but only has an RPI of #66 along with 7 sub 100 RPI losses. After drawing a bye in the opening round they will face the winner of #5 NC State/#12 Virginia Tech – for their sake hopefully it’s the Wolfpack, and the Cavs must win that game. If they did beat State and reached the SF round it could go either way if they truly “need” another win. For us, a good outing vs. Miami is a must at the very least. If they lost their first game they will likely be relegated to the NIT.
B12: in our opinion, which differs from other analysts out there blogging about bracketology, the only team from this conference that can still earn an at-large bid is Iowa State. Baylor, involved in some people’s brackets at this point in the proceedings, was removed from our projections a few weeks ago, and with a record of 17-13/9-9, and an RPI of #61, they need to secure the conference’s automatic bid to be dancing in 2013. ISU on the other hand needs just one win because of the way the B12 bracket broke, as their opener in the 4/5 game is versus Oklahoma. If the Cyclones beat the Sooners they will have sealed their fate; if they lose that game they are not eliminated from contention, but their berth would be greatly impacted by the performance of other teams; not a preferable way to enjoy their weekend.
B10: Minnesota & Illinois both finished conference play below .500, a significant red mark on their resume. It also just so happens they will face off in the B10 Tournament opening round 8/9 game, with the winner moving on to face #1 Indiana. But the issue here is only one team can win, leaving the loser at 8-11 – perhaps an insurmountable obstacle towards earning an at-large bid. Our thought is the winner seals their bid, while the loser maybe in trouble, especially if the loser is Illinois, whose RPI is ~20 spots worse than Minnesota.
CUSA: Southern Miss has a decent record, and good enough RPI – but where are the big wins? Their best win on the season was November 27th at home vs. Denver; since then their best work was a sweep of RPI #92 East Carolina, hardly resume fodder. For the Golden Eagles to secure their own at-large bid it seems they need to advance to the CUSA Championship Game, and at the very least put up a better fight vs. Memphis than they were able to muster in both regular season contests. Unless they win the conference’s automatic bid it would be in their best interest if Memphis advanced and met them in the title game; otherwise, SMISS will almost certainly be on the outside looking in come Sunday.
MWC: all season this has clearly been one of the better if not the best non-AQ conference, and the payoff could be numerous tickets punched to the NCAA Tournament come Sunday. Right now it seems there are two teams that have not locked up their status just yet, San Diego State & Boise State. Much like the Big Ten, unfortunately, those teams will face off in the opening round Thursday afternoon. The Aztecs are just about in the field – they will likely make an appearance, but at this point they do not 100% own a spot. Boise State still has some work to do, needing at least a win over SD State to keep their hopes alive. For the conference the best thing that could happen is a tight Boise State win over SD State, followed up by the Broncos beating New Mexico in the SF round. One point of note is BSU does not necessarily have to beat New Mexico per say in the SF round – if the Lobos were upset by Wyoming or Nevada that would be fine for BSU – they just need more wins, not necessarily of the top rated variety.
P12: much like recent history the P12 Tournament will be a wide open affair with many team’s hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament resting on their performance at Staples Center this weekend (keep in mind the #1 or #2 seed has only cut the nets down as conference champion once in the past 6 seasons). Taking a look at the bracket, Colorado is the only bubble team playing on the opening day; hence one of the reasons they are listed as needing two wins to earn an at-large bid. The #5 seed Buffaloes open vs. #12 Oregon State, whom they lost to at home Saturday. If they pick up that win they would move on to face #4 Arizona in the QF round (rematch of last year’s championship game which Colorado won) – a win they may need to earn a berth. Also in the QF round, #3 Oregon will face the winner of the Washington schools, while #2 California will meet the winner of #7 USC/#10 Utah. All three teams could seal up their bids by advancing to the SF round; Colorado cannot afford a loss to Oregon State in the opening round; otherwise, there is a lot to be decided for these teams based on not only their results, but other schools across the country.
SEC: perhaps more impactful than the P12’s Tournament, the SEC Conference Tournament will hold the direct fate of numerous teams – right now it appears two teams are locks to be dancing, Florida & Missouri; the rest of the conference’s hopeful tournament teams are on the bubble. The bracket will play a big factor in the chances of these four teams, so with that in mind let’s start with Tennessee, whom we have as the “best chance” SEC bubble team currently, but they are the only one of the four playing their first game before the QF round. The #5 Vols will play the winner of #12 South Carolina/#13 Mississippi State on Thursday, with the winner of that game reaching the QF round to face off with #4 Alabama. Right off the bat, Tennessee must at least win that opening game to remain in the conversation for an at-large berth. That sets up the following QF games involving these four teams: #5 Tennessee vs. #4 Alabama, #7 Arkansas/#10 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Kentucky, #6 Texas A&M/#14 Auburn/#6 Missouri vs. #2 Ole Miss. The UT/UA game is surely an elimination game, with the loser having little chance of earning a bid; Kentucky will definitely need to win their opener vs. Arkansas/Vanderbilt as neither of those teams are NCAA Tournament caliber, and the Wildcats cannot afford another bad loss; lastly, Ole Miss will likely meet Missouri in their QF game – another must win situation. To summarize the QF round, either Tennessee or Alabama will be knocked out of consideration after those two meet (and if they don’t meet Tennessee is finished anyway), while both UK & Ole Miss need wins. Let’s bullet point what each team needs since there is a lot going on with this tourney:
- #5 Tennessee: needs to win their opening round game, beat Alabama in the QF, and have a good showing vs. likely Florida in the SF round
- #4 Alabama: needs to beat Tennessee & likely Florida to earn a bid
- #3 Ole Miss: needs to win the bottom half of the draw which means an appearance in the SEC Championship Game
- #2 Kentucky: like Ole Miss needs to either win the bottom half of the bracket, or win their QF matchup vs. Ark/Vandy and have a good showing vs. Missouri (if Mizzou was to beat A&M/Auburn then Ole Miss). They cannot afford a win in their QF game followed by a loss to Ole Miss.
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD
A10: 5
ACC: 4
B12: 5
BE: 8
B10: 7
MVC: 2
MWC: 5
P12: 5
SEC: 4
WCC: 2
1 BID CONFERENCES: 21
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