Now that the weekday games are complete here is where we actually project the FIELD OF 68 using those results along with the weekly report of each conference that gets posted here. As the days turn into weeks, the ability to accurately project the field becomes increasingly easier as many teams play themselves right out of the discussion – which we have seen a lot recently. So, without any further delay, here is how we see the current field shaping up:
AUTOMATIC BIDS (31)
Stony Brook
St. Louis [replaces Butler from last version]
Miami, Fla
Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas
Louisville
Montana
Charleston Southern [replaces UNC-Asheville from last version]
Indiana
Long Beach State
Northeastern
Memphis
Valparaiso
Harvard
Canisius
Akron
Savannah State [replaces North Carolina Central from last version]
Creighton
New Mexico
Bryant
Belmont
Arizona
Bucknell
Florida
Davidson
Stephen F. Austin
Southern
South Dakota State
Middle Tennessee State
Gonzaga
Louisiana Tech
NEAR LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS (21) – some are a LOCK to be dancing, and the remaining are close to LOCK status – but its 3/1, meaning there are still 1.5 weeks of regular season action, so teams need to continue winning games – no reason to think they will not hence why they show up in this category. Teams are listed within their conference in the order we envision their seeds to be (meaning we currently project Butler to have a higher seed than VCU, etc…).
A10: Butler, VCU
ACC: Duke, North Carolina, NC State
B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
BE: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
B10: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota
MWC: UNLV, Colorado State
SEC: Missouri
BUBBLE TEAMS THAT RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE FIELD (16) & FIVE OTHERS WHO ARE ALIVE TO EARN A BERTH – most of these teams will wind up in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday, but none of them have signed, sealed & delivered their spot as of yet. As the days & weeks continue to pass expect many of these teams to move up to the next category as they continue bolstering their resumes; while others will fall off & miss the dance.
# Team Record vs. Top 25/50/100 RPI Road/Neutral Best RPI Win BPI
53. Illinois [#31] 4-6/5-7/8-7 7-5 7 INDIANA #59
54. UCLA [#39] 2-1/4-4/10-6 7-4 14 ARIZONA #36
55. San Diego State [#33] 2-6/4-6/7-8 7-7 2 NEW MEXICO #28
56. Wichita State [#41] 0-0/3-0/8-5 10-4 34 VCU #26
57. Oregon [#47] 2-1/3-4/9-6 6-4 14 ARIZONA #29
58. Colorado [#22] 2-2/4-3/9-7 8-6 14 ARIZONA #31
59. Temple [#37] 1-2/3-3/9-5 8-5 12 SYRACUSE #57
60. Virginia [#58] 3-2/4-2/7-2 3-7 1 DUKE #40
61. Villanova [#56] 3-1/4-6/6-9 7-7 6 LOUISVILLE #62
62. Cincinnati [#48] 1-3/3-7/7-9 8-4 13 MARQUETTE #32
63. California [#46] 1-3/4-5/7-9 9-5 14 ARIZONA #49
64. St. Mary’s [#45] 0-2/1-2/6-3 11-4 43 CREIGHTON #37
65. LaSalle [#35] 0-1/2-2/5-6 10-5 26 BUTLER #51
66. Iowa State [#53] 1-4/2-6/5-7 4-8 21 KANSAS ST #42
67. Boise State [#49] 1-4/2-5/6-6 7-7 16 UNLV #53
68. Tennessee [#52] 1-2/3-4/8-9 5-7 9 FLORIDA #56
69. Kentucky [#50] 0-3/1-4/6-8 5-6 36 MISSOURI #38
70. Southern Mississippi [#40] 0-3/0-4/3-6 11-6 NONE #61
71. Ole Miss [#55] 0-2/1-4/5-6 6-6 36 MISSOURI #39
72. Alabama [#65] 0-0/1-3/7-5 6-6 50 KENTUCKY #67
72. Baylor [#59] 0-4/2-7/4-9 6-7 28 OKLAHOMA STATE #46
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD (only showing multiple bid conferences)
A10: 5
ACC: 5
B12: 5
BE: 8
B10: 7
MVC: 2
MWC: 5
P12: 5
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
This week was very eventful as quite a few teams removed themselves from consideration going forward – like Maryland, BYU, Indiana State and Charlotte to name a few. Right now I only see 5 teams alive that do not currently have a spot in the dance – but once we start seeing conference tournament upsets some of the bottom 5 currently in the field will begin slipping out, sliding that bubble or cut-off point up a few spots. On average let’s figure there are 5 “bid stealing” situations that develop over the next two weeks – here are the teams that could be in trouble, and what they likely need to do to secure their own bid:
68. Tennessee: 4 more wins would likely secure their spot in the dance. Whether that comes from going 3-0 to close regular season & picking up 1 SECT win, or going 2-1 to close and winning two in the SECT – four wins is their magic number.
67. Boise State: they first off need to go at least 2-1 to close regular season which would put them above .500 in MWC play – which seems like a barometer. The issue for the Broncos is their remaining schedule is vs. CSU, @ UNLV, vs. SDST – three teams that will likely be in the dance. Even if they did go 2-1 they also would likely need to win at least one game and possibly two in the MWCT – again the problem is most likely would face one of those three teams or New Mexico in the 2nd round. It appears as of now it will be tough for BSU to hang onto their spot.
66. Iowa State: the Cyclones need a 2-1 close to their regular season which would put them at 11-7, typically bubble territory for B12 teams. If they were able to accomplish that it would mean at least one big win over either OU or OKST, which would assist the resume. They will likely face Oklahoma in the first round of the B12T, a game they would need to win at the very least to remain in the field.
65. LaSalle: the Explorers need at least 2-1 to close their regular season, but possibly need 3-0 because they cannot afford a bad loss, and still do not have a big win to hang their hat on – their last game @ STL would provide that. If they go 2-1 with a loss to STL I feel the Explorers need at least a SF appearance in the A10T, possibly to reach the final to secure their bid.
64. St. Mary’s: the Gaels need to close the regular season with a win over Santa Clara, then likely need to reach the BWT Final to secure their bid. A loss to SC or earlier in the BWT could spell doom for Mary’s.
The key to understanding the chances some of these bubble teams have at actually receiving a bid is realizing there will be bid stealing teams – which will in fact slide the bubble UP, as in teams that are currently projected to earn a spot will wind up missing out. That is why right now it seems pretty clear, at least to us, there are only 69 teams that truly “deserve” a bid using current data – Kentucky as of this moment is the team left off this analysis. But, we know how tough it becomes to decide on the last few teams – and this year will be no different because the bid stealing will occur, sliding the bubble up, then we will have to decide on teams like Iowa State, LaSalle and/or St. Mary’s – who amongst them most deserves a spot? Tough question for sure…..
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