Now that the regular season is complete we can get a firm field on what the Field of 68 will look like come Sunday. In this analysis teams will be grouped in a couple sections, clearly labeled at the top of each. Here is what the Field looks like as of today:
(31) AUTOMATIC BIDS [teams underlined, highlighted and in bold have sealed their bid]
America East: Vermont
Atlantic 10: St. Louis
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12: Kansas
Big East: Louisville
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Charleston Southern Liberty
Big 10: Indiana
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: Northeastern James Madison
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Valparaiso
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Ohio
MEAC: Norfolk State Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Mountain West: New Mexico
Northeast: LIU Brooklyn
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac 12: Arizona
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Florida
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: Louisiana Tech New Mexico State
(29) LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS – these teams are LOCKS to be in the Field of 68. Teams are listed in strength order within conferences – for example, VCU is currently rated higher than Butler in our opinion (Big East order shifted some since last edition). Three new teams were added since last version, and they are bold & highlighted:
A10: VCU, Butler
ACC: Miami, North Carolina, NC State
B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State
BE: Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Cincinnati
B10: Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois
MVC: Wichita State
MWC: Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State
P12: UCLA, Oregon
SEC: Missouri
WCC: St. Mary’s
(9) TEAMS THAT NEED MORE WINS IN THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT TO EARN A BID [RPI]
A10: Temple [36], LaSalle [39], UMass [57]
ACC: Virginia [66]
CUSA: Southern Mississippi [38]
SEC: Tennessee [54], Kentucky [50], Alabama [62], Ole Miss [56]
(5) TEAMS ELIMINATED FROM THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT BUT STILL ALIVE TO EARN A BID [RPI]
B10: Minnesota [30]
MWC: Boise State [43]
P12: Colorado [39], California [54]
SB: Middle Tennessee State [31]
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOCKS: 29
60 of 68 BIDS ARE LOCKED UP AS OF GAMES PLAYED ON 3/14
TEAMS STILL ALIVE IN THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT & NEED MORE WINS: 9
TEAMS ELIMINATED FROM THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT BUT REMAIN ON BUBBLE: 5
We currently show 60 LOCKS to earn a bid, with 14 additional teams in the mix for the last 8 open spots. Nine of the fourteen teams in the mix to earn one of those final bids are still in action, having not been eliminated from their conference tournament so they currently have the inside track at earning those last bids. But after tonight’s action its likely many of those teams will have lost today, cementing their resume, and placing them into the second bucket that currently has 5 bubble teams whose seasons are complete.
As of today’s analysis here are the EIGHT TEAMS we are including to round out the FIELD OF 68 (listed in order with Temple being the 61st team & Virginia being the final 68th team):
#61: Temple
#62: California
#63: LaSalle
#64: Colorado
#65: Tennessee
#66: Boise State
#67: Minnesota
#68: Virginia
First Six OUT:
#69: Kentucky
#70: Middle Tennessee State
#71: Southern Mississippi
#72: Ole Miss
#73: Alabama
#74: UMass
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS BREAKDOWN & ANALYSIS – here we will UPDATE each conference tournament where bubble teams will be taking part, and attempting to set some goals for each team to earn their own at-large bid.
A10: Temple & LaSalle can almost cement their status as NCAA Tournament teams by winning their QF matchup with UMass & Butler, respectively. UMass is the only other A10 team that remains in the mix to earn an at-large bid, and it seems they need to beat Temple today, and also take down the winner of VCU/St. Joseph’s (PA) tomorrow to place themselves firmly in the mix & discussion. That means the Minutemen need at least a Championship Game appearance to feel good about their status come Sunday.
ACC: Virginia is the only team in the mix that has not locked up their bid, and today they face NC State in basically a must-win situation. If the Cavaliers win that game they are almost certainly a lock to be dancing; should they lose they will be amongst the last four in or first four out, depending on what occurs across the country over the next 48 hours.
B10: Minnesota lost to Illinois and is the only bubble team from the B10. Although their RPI is solid at #30 they are just 8-11 in Big Ten play, which really stands out in a negative way, despite that conference generally regarded as the toughest all season long. The Golden Gophers are clearly on the bubble, and will be watching a lot of television over the next 2 days as they cannot afford many, if any, bid stealing opportunities, especially an Iowa Big Ten Tournament championship – which would almost certainly leave them on the outside looking in come Sunday.
CUSA: Southern Miss took care of business in their opener beating UAB 81-66; next up is a solid UTEP team. No question the Golden Eagles need a win there – if they pick up that win they either need to face Memphis in the Championship Game and play better than they did in the two meetings between these schools during the regular season, or if Tulsa beats Memphis they flat out need to beat Tulsa and take home the conference’s automatic bid.
MWC: with San Diego State beating Boise State in the QF’s the Broncos are the lone MWC team sitting on the bubble, their fate clearly not defined at this moment in time. Very much like Minnesota BSU needs to actively watch the rest of the conference’s across the country, and hope for minimal upsets/bid stealing situations. It seems the Broncos will be either last four in or first four out – which side of the line they fall on will have a lot to do with the results over the next 48 hours from conferences across the country.
P12: with Utah stringing together a pair of wins the last two nights and now facing Oregon in the SF round some damage has been done to California, who lost to the Utes last night in OT 79-69. Also on the bubble in our opinion is Colorado, who sits at 21-11/10-8/#39 RPI; they were eliminated by Arizona yesterday and now will be forced to sit around and hope they have done enough during the regular season to warrant inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. Four Top 50 wins definitely helps their cause; however, typically P12 teams that post just a 10-8 mark in conference play are left off the dance card – will be interesting to see what happens with the Buffs & Golden Bears come Sunday. We believe at least one of the two will earn a bid, and there is a better than 50% chance both are included.
SEC: since the QF round is today nothing has changed from our bullet point analysis that was posted earlier this week. As a reminder this is where each team stands, and what they need to accomplish to secure a bid 100%:
- #5 Tennessee: beat Alabama in the QF, and have a good showing/beat Florida/LSU winner respectively in the SF round
- #4 Alabama: beat Tennessee & likely Florida/LSU winner to earn a bid. If LSU beats Florida they may need to play solid in the Championship Game as well.
- #3 Ole Miss: needs to win the bottom half of the draw which means an appearance in the SEC Championship Game
- #2 Kentucky: like Ole Miss needs to either win the bottom half of the bracket, or win their QF matchup vs. Vandy and have a good showing vs. Missouri (if Mizzou was to beat A&M/Auburn then Ole Miss). They cannot afford a win in their QF game followed by a loss to Ole Miss.
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD
A10: 5
ACC: 5
B12: 5
BE: 8
B10: 7
MVC: 2
MWC: 5
P12: 5
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
1 BID CONFERENCES: 21
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