Well an exciting 2012-2013 NCAA basketball regular season is in the books, and we now move on to a week of conference tournament action, followed by the postseason tournaments – highlighted of course by the NCAA Tournament. But before we reach Selection Sunday there is a lot of action to play out including the AQ/BCS conference tournaments – in today’s article we will focus on the Grand Daddy of them All, the Big East Tournament!
Where: Madison Square Garden
When: March 12-16
Format: 1st Rd (Seeds #11-14), 2nd Rd (Two Rd1 winners & Seeds 5-10), QF (Four Rd2 winners & Seeds 1-4), SF, Championship
Notes: UConn 20-10/10-8 is ineligible because of poor APR. They would have been the 8th seed; all seeds have simply been shifted up one spot.
Recent Winners: 2012 – Louisville ; 2011 – Connecticut ; 2010 – West Virginia ; 2009 – Louisville ; 2008 – Pittsburgh. Each of the last 3 winners has advanced to the Final Four with UConn winning the 2011 National Championship.
NCAA Tournament Impact: 8 teams (L’VILLE, G’TOWN, MARQ, SYR, PIT, ND, CIN, VILL) are likely to earn bids in the field, with Cincinnati & Villanova feeling 100% certain of their inclusion with one win here. Otherwise, the only NCAAT issues relate to seeding & the s-curve.
Analysis: without question the biggest of the conference tournaments, the 2013 Big East Tournament will be the last version with the conference as we currently know it. Next season the Big East will still be competing, and the BET will still be taking place at MSG, but the teams comprising the conference will be the Catholic 7 plus a few additions that have yet to be finalized. But that is next year – today let’s focus on the excitement that is to be this season’s championship. There was a 3 way tie atop the regular season standings with Georgetown (#1), Louisville (#2), Marquette (#3) finishing at 14-4. Rounding out the top 4 seeds that have earned the “coveted” (or is it?) double bye is Pittsburgh, who finished at 12-6. At the bottom of the conference was DePaul (#14), USF (#13), Seton Hall (#12) & Rutgers (#11) – those four will be facing off this evening with the right to move on to face #5 Syracuse & #6 Notre Dame. Lastly, the middle portion of the bracket has Villanova (#7) who finished 10-8; a pair of .500 teams in Providence (#8) & Cincinnati (#9); and lastly 8-10 St. Johns (#10). It seems very unlikely any seed below #9 reaches the QF’s on Thursday although Syracuse has not played great ball down the stretch to close their regular season. Being that Cincinnati really needs a win if for nothing but confidence as they head into the NCAAT they should be a solid play from a revenge angle to beat upstart Providence in the 2nd round. The QF’s should look like this:
- #1 Georgetown vs. #9 Cincinnati: these teams met on 2/15 with the Hoyas coming out on top at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati 62-55. The Bearcats really struggled from the field in that matchup shooting just 31.5% from the field & 16.7% on 24 3pt attempts; they also missed 13 FTs. Unfortunately for Cincy their weakness is shooting/scoring as they are rated just #306 in FG%, while KenPom (KP) rates their adjusted offensive efficiency #117 – a poor mark for a major conference team. With the Hoyas checking in #3 in KP defensive efficiency this is not a good matchup for the Bearcats – look for Georgetown to handle business in this QF, in what should be a low scoring, and could be a “closer than they experts think” game.
- #2 Louisville vs. #7 Villanova: earlier this season Villanova stunned Louisville 73-64 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Since that loss the Cardinals have gone 10-2 with their pair of losses coming by 2pts @ Georgetown (which was their next game after the Villanova loss) & by 3pts in 5 OT’s @ Notre Dame. Basically, Louisville is currently playing some of its best ball of the season as they look to improve upon last year’s Final Four appearance, along with repeating & winning the BET for the 3rd time in 5 years. Villanova has showed the ability to play up or down to their competition, and could be a giant killer come the NCAAT – however, in this spot, with a revenge minded Cardinals team at MSG, the Wildcats will be hard pressed to pull off another stunner. Give me Louisville in this game in what will likely be the biggest margin of victory of all 4 BET QF matchups.
- #3 Marquette vs. #6 Notre Dame: these teams recently met on 3/2 in Milwaukee, and the Golden Eagles won 72-64 after jumping out to a huge first half lead. Marquette enters the BET as one of the hotter teams in the conference not named Georgetown going 6-1 SU over their L7; on the flip side the Fighting Irish are just 5-4 SU over their L9, with 2 of those 5 wins coming in OT+. ND has failed to meet its expectations this season considering they returned everyone of note from a 21-10/13-5 team in 2012 – but it’s not too late to turn things around, and make a run in both the BET & more importantly the NCAAT. I expect to see a revitalized Irish club in the 2013 postseason, leading them to a win here and their fourth straight SF appearance in the BET.
- #4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Syracuse: in the regular season meeting between these clubs the Panthers defended their home court and came out with a 65-55 win vs. then #6 Syracuse. Since that game each team has gone in different directions with the Panthers winning 7 of their last 9 SU, while the Orange closed 1-4 over their last 5, and 3-5 over their last 8 SU. Both of these schools have enjoyed immense success in the BET this century with Pitt appearing in 7 Championship Games since 2001 (but none since winning it all in 2008), while Syracuse has appeared in 3 Championship Games since 2005 winning it all twice. Syracuse is the more talented club and probably more hungry; combine that with the fact the final BET is very important to Boeheim, and the Orange are playing with same season revenge, and you have the ingredients for a very exciting Syracuse win.
Those results would leave us with a Friday Night SF round of #1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse followed by #2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame. The “Final Four” of the BET is one of the most exciting nights of the college basketball season for those that reside in the Northeast Corridor, and having the final one tip off with the third matchup of the season between the Hoyas & Orange would be epic!
- #1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse: simply put this would be the one matchup the entire country would probably want to see one more time; yes its perhaps one round too early, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers in this spot! These teams met twice this year with the Hoyas sweeping the Orange – in the first meeting @ Syracuse the Hoyas came in as medium sized underdogs of +7 and beat the Orange SU 57-46 in the Carrier Dome. In the regular season rematch Georgetown was a small favorite but once again had no issues dispatching Cuse 61-39 in one of the worst offensive performances from a Syracuse team in Boeheim’s career. Do you think the Orange may be a little upset after that throttling last week? I think so – and think Syracuse would definitely handle Georgetown if this matchup was to develop…give me the Cuse relatively BIG over the Hoyas in the first SF matchup.
- #2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame: both of these squads have played exceptionally well in the BET of late with ND reaching the SF round in each of the last 3 seasons (but they did not advance to the Finals in any of those three years however), while Louisville has been a participant in the Championship Game 3 of the last 4 years, winning it all twice. These teams are known for their OT thrillers over the years, and it happened once again this year as the Irish beat the Cardinals in Rd1 this year in South Bend 104-101 in 5OT! However, in the rematch that just took place 3/9 @ Louisville the Cardinals had no issues taking care of business vs. the visiting Irish, pounding them 73-57. Both of these teams will be used to the spotlight and pressure that is Friday night at the BET – so one big question is which squad is better equipped to handle it? I think this Louisville team is peaking and playing their best basketball of the season right now – just like they did last season which led to a Final Four appearance (which is where I think they are headed this year at a minimum). Give me Louisville taking down ND as the Irish will once again come up just short in their last chance of reaching the BET Final.
That would leave us with a Saturday night Championship Game between #5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville – the two teams I think most basketball savvy fans projected as the cream of the Big East crop in 2012-2013.
- #5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville: although it would be great to see a couple old-school heavyweights from the original Big East square off for the last tournament championship, in my opinion, these are the two best, most talented, best equipped to make a run at a national championship teams in the conference. They have met twice during the regular season, both winning on the opponent’s home floor: 1/19 Syracuse won at Louisville 70-68 & 3/2 Louisville winning in the Dome 58-53. These two squads are very even across the board, and breaking down the statistics from their first two meetings there was not much difference comparing the two. The Cardinals are the #1 defense in the country according to KP, while the Cuse’s vaunted 2/3 matchup zone has them at #10. Louisville is also about 10 spots higher using offensive metrics according to KP – meaning there is a small gap between these two teams with Ville marginally “better” both offensively and defensively according to KP. Both teams have HOF head coaches and enough experience where it will not be a factor either way. On a neutral floor this game should be an absolute classic as I fully expect the Orange to find their groove @ MSG & get back to performing like one of the best teams in the country; Louisville is already there. I am going to give the edge to Syracuse, halting Louisville’s hopes at becoming the first Big East team to win back to back BET’s since the Orange did it themselves in ’05-’06.
In the final Big East Tournament as we have known it, and grown to love it over these last 30+ years, the Syracuse Orange will come out on top, winning their 6th BET crown, which only trails Georgetown & Connecticut who have each hoisted the trophy 7 times since the tourney’s inception.
Current Vegas Odds to win the Big East Tournament
Louisville 2/1
Georgetown 4/1
Pittsburgh & Syracuse 5/1
Marquette 10/1
Notre Dame 18/1
Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1
Providence 60/1
St. Johns 75/1
Rutgers & South Florida 250/1
Seton Hall 350/1
DePaul 750/1
Based on those odds I would eliminate the top & bottom 4 schools – the top 4 are eliminated because there just isn’t enough value there to play those teams (I would rather play game to game on any of those four), while the bottom 4 just simply have zero chance at winning the trophy. Using that strategy leaves us with 6 teams – and of those 6 I would eliminate St. Johns & Providence as I do not feel either of those two is consistent enough on a nightly basis to string together the necessary amount of wins needed to win the championship, along with both teams suffering a lack of depth or injuries which will certainly come into play in this type of layout. That leaves us with Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova & Cincinnati – four likely NCAA Tournament teams, but with just one combined Big East Tournament Championship (Villanova 1995). Of those four Cincinnati is the only team on the top of the bracket, and keep in mind they advanced to the Championship Game last season before falling to Louisville – in other words, they are in the weaker portion of the draw, and just last year reached the final. The other three squads are in the bottom half of the bracket, with Marquette & Notre Dame likely playing each other in the QF round – meaning one of the two is likely, but not a lock, to reach the SF round. Villanova is also in the bottom half of the draw, but has to get by the host team St John’s (shouldn’t be an issue) followed by a revenge minded Louisville team in the QF round. Despite that fact, because the odds are high and Nova has proven it can play with the best this season, I would suggest action on Marquette 10/1, Notre Dame 18/1, Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1 to win the Big East Tournament – keeping in mind there are hedging opportunities on all four down the road.
Many ask me about hedging – what does that mean, and how can it be done?
Briefly, we would like hold off on hedging Marquette or Notre Dame until the two played in the QF round – unless ND was taken out in the 2nd round, then we would want to protect the original investments in ND & MARQ by hedging and taking either Rutgers or DePaul on huge ML’s when they played Marquette.
On Villanova we could hedge so long as they reached the QF vs. Louisville since their mark of 25/1 is sizeable & leaves a lot of arbitrage opportunity.
Cincinnati is the same story as Villanova, with the fact they are going off at 25/1 really leaving the door open to at least recoup our original investment in them before their game versus Georgetown if we like.
We could also hedge Nova & Cincy in the 2nd round considering their opponents should be decent sized underdogs. For example, let’s use Villanova:
- We laid $100 on Villanova to win the BET at a level of +$2,500
- We could simply play St. John’s on the ML versus Villanova in the 2nd round at odds approximately +200 (using an estimate but no matter what the line is you can get the math to work with a huge gap between $100 investment & $2,500 upside)
- The idea being to risk $50 to win $100 on St. John’s beating Villanova in the 2nd round
- That would lead to one of two outcomes:
- St John’s upsets Villanova: we lose our original $100 placed on Villanova to win the BET, but we win $100 from the $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova – net zero.
- Villanova beat St. John’s: we lose our $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova in the 2nd round, but we still have the chance to win $2,500 if Villanova wins the BET – net results in maximum payoff on Villanova winning the BET of $2,450
What is key to hedging is you need to have significant odds on the original investment, and also its best to play an underdog as your hedge opposite your original side since that is laying out less money to win back your original outlay (see Villanova/St. John’s example above).
Check back over the next couple days as additional major conference tournament previews are posted!
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