|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
||||||
|
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
41
|
5
|
43
|
6
|
84
|
1
|
||
|
Portland
|
29
|
1
|
67
|
17
|
96
|
2
|
||
|
Toronto
|
43
|
7
|
53
|
11
|
96
|
2
|
||
|
Oklahoma
City
|
51
|
11
|
46
|
7
|
97
|
4
|
||
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
33
|
2
|
65
|
16
|
98
|
5
|
||
|
Houston
|
38
|
3
|
61
|
13
|
99
|
6
|
||
|
Indiana
|
70
|
20
|
31
|
2
|
101
|
7
|
||
|
Chicago
|
77
|
25
|
26
|
1
|
103
|
8
|
||
|
San
Antonio
|
65
|
15
|
39
|
4
|
104
|
9
|
||
|
Golden
State
|
71
|
21
|
38
|
3
|
109
|
10
|
||
|
Memphis
|
61
|
14
|
48
|
8
|
109
|
10
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
69
|
18
|
41
|
5
|
110
|
12
|
||
|
Detroit
|
56
|
12
|
64
|
15
|
120
|
13
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
48
|
9
|
73
|
21
|
121
|
14
|
||
|
Denver
|
47
|
8
|
75
|
23
|
122
|
15
|
||
|
New
Orleans
|
40
|
4
|
83
|
26
|
123
|
16
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
76
|
23
|
48
|
8
|
124
|
17
|
||
|
Dallas
|
49
|
10
|
77
|
24
|
126
|
18
|
||
|
Washington
|
76
|
23
|
50
|
10
|
126
|
18
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
41
|
5
|
88
|
29
|
129
|
20
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
69
|
18
|
61
|
13
|
130
|
21
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
60
|
13
|
74
|
22
|
134
|
22
|
||
|
Miami
|
65
|
15
|
69
|
18
|
134
|
22
|
||
|
New
York
|
66
|
17
|
71
|
19
|
137
|
24
|
||
|
Orlando
|
86
|
28
|
58
|
12
|
144
|
25
|
||
|
Boston
|
85
|
27
|
72
|
20
|
157
|
26
|
||
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
77
|
25
|
80
|
25
|
157
|
26
|
||
|
Utah
|
73
|
22
|
90
|
30
|
163
|
28
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
99
|
29
|
83
|
26
|
182
|
29
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
99
|
29
|
86
|
28
|
185
|
30
|
||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points. Last key
item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my
projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact
based on statistical testing.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
|
Miami
|
117.0
|
113.0
|
|
L.A. Clippers
|
115.5
|
111.5
|
|
Indiana
|
115.5
|
111.5
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
115.3
|
111.3
|
|
San Antonio
|
114.2
|
111.2
|
|
Golden State
|
114.1
|
111.1
|
|
Dallas
|
113.8
|
110.8
|
|
Toronto
|
113.1
|
110.6
|
|
Phoenix
|
113.4
|
110.4
|
|
Minnesota
|
112.3
|
109.8
|
|
Houston
|
113.3
|
109.8
|
|
Washington
|
112.2
|
109.7
|
|
Memphis
|
110.9
|
108.4
|
|
New York
|
110.2
|
108.2
|
|
Detroit
|
110.1
|
108.1
|
|
Portland
|
111.5
|
108.0
|
|
New Orleans
|
110.4
|
107.9
|
|
Atlanta
|
110.6
|
107.6
|
|
Brooklyn
|
110.1
|
107.6
|
|
Chicago
|
110.2
|
107.2
|
|
Charlotte
|
109.1
|
107.1
|
|
Denver
|
109.1
|
106.6
|
|
Sacramento
|
108.6
|
106.6
|
|
Cleveland
|
108.7
|
106.2
|
|
Boston
|
107.3
|
105.3
|
|
Orlando
|
105.6
|
103.6
|
|
L.A. Lakers
|
105.6
|
103.6
|
|
Utah
|
104.8
|
102.8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
102.4
|
100.4
|
|
Milwaukee
|
102.0
|
100.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current
SOS:
|
Win %
|
ATS Win %
|
Projected Wins
|
Current SOS
|
||||||||
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
RANK
|
||||
|
Miami
|
0.725
|
3
|
0.440
|
24
|
57.31
|
1
|
0.544
|
6
|
|||
|
L.A. Clippers
|
0.673
|
7
|
0.564
|
7
|
57.17
|
2
|
0.507
|
12
|
|||
|
Indiana
|
0.769
|
2
|
0.615
|
2
|
57.00
|
3
|
0.563
|
2
|
|||
|
Oklahoma City
|
0.782
|
1
|
0.582
|
4
|
55.92
|
4
|
0.577
|
1
|
|||
|
San Antonio
|
0.717
|
4
|
0.472
|
17
|
53.96
|
5
|
0.562
|
3
|
|||
|
Golden State
|
0.585
|
10
|
0.460
|
22
|
52.55
|
6
|
0.533
|
7
|
|||
|
Dallas
|
0.593
|
8
|
0.574
|
5
|
51.52
|
7
|
0.526
|
8
|
|||
|
Toronto
|
0.538
|
12
|
0.608
|
3
|
51.42
|
8
|
0.511
|
11
|
|||
|
Phoenix
|
0.588
|
9
|
0.660
|
1
|
49.87
|
9
|
0.526
|
8
|
|||
|
Minnesota
|
0.472
|
16
|
0.509
|
13
|
47.80
|
11
|
0.504
|
13
|
|||
|
Houston
|
0.679
|
5
|
0.529
|
11
|
48.36
|
10
|
0.551
|
5
|
|||
|
Washington
|
0.481
|
15
|
0.558
|
8
|
44.94
|
12
|
0.493
|
16
|
|||
|
Memphis
|
0.558
|
11
|
0.471
|
18
|
44.90
|
13
|
0.525
|
10
|
|||
|
New York
|
0.385
|
22
|
0.404
|
28
|
44.34
|
14
|
0.466
|
25
|
|||
|
Detroit
|
0.423
|
21
|
0.451
|
23
|
43.74
|
15
|
0.467
|
24
|
|||
|
Portland
|
0.679
|
5
|
0.547
|
9
|
43.01
|
16
|
0.557
|
4
|
|||
|
New Orleans
|
0.442
|
19
|
0.469
|
20
|
41.16
|
17
|
0.490
|
20
|
|||
|
Atlanta
|
0.490
|
14
|
0.510
|
12
|
39.81
|
18
|
0.491
|
18
|
|||
|
Brooklyn
|
0.471
|
17
|
0.490
|
15
|
37.81
|
19
|
0.492
|
17
|
|||
|
Chicago
|
0.519
|
13
|
0.481
|
16
|
37.54
|
20
|
0.491
|
18
|
|||
|
Charlotte
|
0.434
|
20
|
0.569
|
6
|
37.29
|
21
|
0.473
|
23
|
|||
|
Denver
|
0.471
|
17
|
0.431
|
26
|
36.24
|
22
|
0.496
|
15
|
|||
|
Sacramento
|
0.340
|
26
|
0.471
|
18
|
32.66
|
23
|
0.478
|
22
|
|||
|
Cleveland
|
0.377
|
23
|
0.434
|
25
|
30.34
|
24
|
0.452
|
26
|
|||
|
Boston
|
0.352
|
25
|
0.491
|
14
|
29.82
|
25
|
0.452
|
26
|
|||
|
Orlando
|
0.296
|
28
|
0.426
|
27
|
26.27
|
26
|
0.445
|
28
|
|||
|
L.A. Lakers
|
0.340
|
26
|
0.538
|
10
|
22.43
|
27
|
0.503
|
14
|
|||
|
Utah
|
0.365
|
24
|
0.469
|
20
|
21.80
|
28
|
0.481
|
21
|
|||
|
Philadelphia
|
0.278
|
29
|
0.389
|
29
|
19.18
|
29
|
0.432
|
29
|
|||
|
Milwaukee
|
0.173
|
30
|
0.385
|
30
|
16.97
|
30
|
0.408
|
30
|
|||
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season (estimated to have an error of +/- 4 wins). Based on these projections as of the All-Star
Break the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all
teams in each conference to get a feel for how far out your favorite team is
from being projected a playoff squad, along with how the lottery will set up. Lastly, to give a better representation of
estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and
simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance
ratings to their remaining schedule:
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City 61-21
#2 San Antonio 57-25
#3 LA Clippers 56-26
#4 Houston 53-29
#5 Portland 51-31
#6 Dallas 50-32
#7 Golden State 50-32
#8 Phoenix 49-33
#9 Memphis 45-37
#10 Minnesota 42-40
#11 New Orleans 38-44
#12 Denver 38-44
#13 Sacramento 30-52
#14 Utah 27-55
#15 LA Lakers 26-56
Eastern Conference
#1 Indiana 61-21
#2 Miami 59-23
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Washington 41-41
#5 Chicago 41-41
#6 Atlanta 40-42
#7 Brooklyn 38-44
#8 Detroit 38-44
#9 New York 36-46
#10 Charlotte 36-46
#11 Cleveland 31-51
#12 Boston 29-53
#13 Orlando 25-57
#14 Philadelphia 22-60
#15 Milwaukee 15-67
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment