This is our fourth installment of bracketology and comes as
we head into the final stretch of conference play. Below we breakdown each conference into four
buckets: 1) automatic bid [discussed in next sentence]; 2) looking good [teams
highly likely to play well enough over the final month of the regular season to
earn a bid]; 3) need wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to
play well to close their season]; 4) life support [teams that still have an
outside shot at earning a bid if they close season strong but are closer to
falling off list vs. earning a bid]. For
the non-AQ conferences we generally select the team with the highest RPI as the
conference winner/automatic bid. Teams
are also listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference. In addition ratings in team discussion are
quoted as RPI/BPI/SBPI (my new Power Ratings for college basketball), and
records listed are vs. Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 (aggregated). Lastly, I always err on the side of including
a team versus adding them to a later version, and also lean towards rating a
team below where they should be as I look to avoid sliding teams backwards in
the buckets.
America East: Vermont
American Athletic:
Louisville
Looking Good: Cincinnati,
UConn, Memphis
Need
Wins:
1. SMU
(21-6/10-4) – the Mustangs remain in
Need Wins instead of getting the bump to Looking Good because of their loss at
Temple, and narrow home win over Houston this last week. They are now 10-2 in their L12 overall, have
ratings of #46/#30/#86 and a solid conference record. SMU is just 1-2/3-3/4-4 which have remained
unchanged over last week. With games
remaining against UConn & Memphis on the road, and home to Louisville there
is still work to be done as if they go winless in that trio they will be firmly
on the bubble.
Atlantic Ten: St.
Louis
Looking Good: UMass, VCU, George
Washington
Need Wins:
1. St.
Joseph’s, PA (18-7/8-3) – the Hawks have ratings of #40/#61/#61 and records of
2-4/2-5/5-6, both in bubble territory. SJU
will continue the weak close to their schedule with back to back home games
coming up with Fordham & Dayton.
What really hurts the Hawks is their top OOC win comes over Boston U, 89th
in RPI. If they can win their remaining 3
home games, and split on road they will be in position to earn an at-large with
a win or two in A10 Tourney.
2. Richmond
(17-9/7-4) – ratings of #45/#66/#95 leave a lot to be desired, as does their
home loss to George Washington earlier this week really leaving them in a whole
as the clear cut 6th A10 team.
Record splits are a respectable 1-4/2-6/6-8 do not reflect well, similar
to their ratings above. The Spiders top
OOC win is over RPI #61 Belmont, which also leaves an empty feeling. At this point it seems a minimum 4-1 close to
the season is necessary including beating VCU at home, and likely on road at
Dayton to close their regular season – unlikely.
Life
Support:
1. Dayton
(18-8/6-5) – ratings of #57/#54/#53 have steadied and leave the Flyers on the
fringe of bubble discussion. Records of 0-2/3-5/7-5
are OK (especially 3 Top 50 wins), but a 6-5 mark in the A10 needs improvement,
and the Flyers could really use a signature win. Dayton easily has the toughest schedule of
the three bubble A10 teams with games @STJ, UMASS, @STL, RICH still on the
slate. That is good and bad; they will
have plenty of chances to improve their resume & score that signature win,
but should they lose just two more conference games their best A10 record would
be 9-7, which would not be good enough for at-large consideration. A lot of work to be done, likely to be cut
very shortly.
ACC: Syracuse
Looking Good: Duke, Virginia, North
Carolina, Pittsburgh
Life Support:
1. Florida
State (15-11/6-8) – current rankings are #64/#51/#64, and they own records of
2-6/2-7/4-10 – firmly at best on the bubble although it’s impressive the number
of games they have played against top competition. Chances are slim but not yet none for the
Seminoles to make a run at a bid – but here is what needs to be done at a
minimum: go 3-1 to close regular season which would include a split at
Pittsburgh & hosting Syracuse. That
would leave FSU at 18-12/9-9, giving them a chance (depending on other bubble
teams also) with two wins in the ACC Tournament to secure their own bid. Unlikely for certain, but not out of reach so
they remain for another week.
2. NC
State (16-10/6-7) – the Pack went 0-2 since our last edition and now sit at
#55/#73/#99, which is marginal (at best) in RPI but way outside range in BPI
& SBPI. Records of 0-5/0-7/3-8
clearly show the Wolfpack have perhaps too much work remaining to secure their
own bid. State most likely needs to go
at worst 4-1 (probably 5-0) to close their regular season – the only way 4-1
would leave them with a chance is if they beat UNC & Pitt – anything else
and NC State will miss out on the big dance.
If they did reach either of those goals to close the regular season,
like FSU, winning two in the ACC Tournament may be enough; again very unlikely
but the chance remains hence they stay for another week.
3. Clemson
(16-9/7-6) – ratings of #70/#55/#65 have improved, but also show a lot of work
remains; a non-conference SOS of #277 is terrible and often a number the
committee likes to expose. They also
have records of just 1-4/1-5/3-7, which just isn’t enough quality wins like
their other Life Support ACC friends. As
mentioned last edition a 5-2 close is the minimum – they are still on target
for that going 1-1 last week losing to Virginia. Their only two road games are up next,
followed by a trio of home contests to close their regular season. With that OOC SOS their conference record
target has to be 11-7; anything less and they will fall short.
4. Maryland
(15-12/7-7) – the Terps make their way onto this week’s edition simply because
the ACC bubble teams are very weak, and considering the strength at the top of
the conference perhaps one of these four teams can play strong to close their
regular season, and earn a bid. The
Terps ratings are #72/#49/#24 – the SBPI is much higher because Maryland
performs well in key statistical areas, they just struggle being efficient
enough turning those into wins. Record
splits of 0-4/0-8/2-12 obviously are well short of any sort of recognition;
however, if they can close 4-0 which would include home wins over Syracuse
& Virginia they would certainly move up into the mix; toss in a pair of ACC
Tournament wins and maybe just maybe the Terps can surprise.
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big 12: Kansas
Looking Good: Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma,
Kansas State
Life Support:
1. West
Virginia (15-11/7-6) – ratings stand at #68/#52/#50, which is weak in RPI but
within bubble range as measured by BPI & SBPI. Their record splits are 1-4/4-9/4-9 which is solid
as far as Top 50 wins go, but amazingly they have not played one single game
all season versus a team currently rated between 51-100 in RPI. Their blowout loss at Texas since last
edition hurt; but a 4-1 close leaving them at 19-12/11-7 would have them firmly
in the mix (probably in) considering their closing schedule is: BAY, @ISU, TCU,
@OKLA, KAN. Expect Huggins’ to have his
kids playing tough, but the mountain will just be too much to climb barring
earning the automatic bid.
2. Baylor
(15-9/5-8) – remember despite Baylor posting a current 17-9 mark two of those
wins came against non D1 competition.
Since last edition the Bears have gone 2-0 beating Kansas State &
Oklahoma State at home – those wins slid BU to 5-8 in conference play. With ratings of #44/#53/#17, record splits of
2-5/5-7/6-8, and a non-conference SOS of #28 they are still somehow in the mix;
however, the mountain is still very steep as despite all those positives the
Bears are still just 5-8 in conference play and would at a bare minimum need to
reach 9-9, combined with 1-2 wins in the B12 Tournament. Reaching .500 in conference play will be
extremely tough with a closing schedule of: @WVU, @TEX, TT, ISU, @KST. They will remain this week because they have
some strong attributes to their resume, but are likely to be cut in next week
or two with that tough closing schedule.
3. Oklahoma
State (16-10/4-9) – the Cowboys have continued their free fall since the Smart
suspension now losing 7 straight and 8 of 9.
Their ratings are down to #47/#23/#32, which are still firmly in bubble
category, but falling quickly. Their
record splits continue to worsen at 2-3/3-9/6-9, having seemingly enough big
name wins but struggling badly of late as mentioned earlier. On the bad side is a 2-6 road record, and a
4-9 conference record leaving them in 9th. Let’s just
be honest – the Cowboys completely fell apart this season and will likely not
be dancing; they need to at a minimum close 5-0 (which would include wins over
Kansas, Kansas State and at Iowa State), and reach at a minimum the Big 12
Tournament SF round. Hard to believe
these Cowboys will almost certainly not be dancing barring a bid-stealing Big
12 Tournament title.
Big East: Villanova
Looking Good: Creighton
Need
Wins:
1. Xavier
(18-8/8-5) – it’s tough to forecast how many bids this new Big East will earn,
so outside the top 2 (Villanova & Creighton) the other teams should feel
concern along with a sense of urgency.
Xavier does have a pair of nice non-conference wins over Tennessee &
Cincinnati which will greatly help them and the rest of the conference come
Selection Sunday. With records of
1-2/1-3/6-6 and ratings of #52/#42/#45 they are on the bubble, and those
numbers have worsened since last edition. A conference mark of 8-5 is solid but with 5
games remaining that could still change a lot – especially considering their
slate of: @GTOWN, @STJ, CREIGH, @HALL, NOVA.
Right now Xavier is in the field, but they must watch their backs with St
John’s especially (and perhaps Providence & Georgetown) because the Musketeers
could easily be looking at a 1-4 close to their regular season which wouldn’t be
enough; 2-3 at a minimum is needed.
2. St.
John’s (18-9/8-6) – the Red Storm have won 6 straight and 9 of their L10 games
with their lone loss coming by just 3 points at Creighton. That Creighton win is their only Top 50 win, and
their best OOC win was at home over RPI #81 San Francisco – not so hot. Records of 1-4/1-4/5-7 leave a lot to be
desired, but rankings of #53/#44/#49 have them squarely in the mix. If the SJU can close 3-1 (@NOVA, XAV, DEP,
@MARQ) their chances will look solid; anything less and they will need at least
one and perhaps two wins in the Big East Tournament. The next two games will be huge for the Red
Storm’s chances.
Life Support:
1. Providence
(17-10/7-7) – the Friars really let a chance for a massive win slip through
their hands when they went down to Villanova at home in double OT – that could have
been the win that propelled the Friars into the national conversation. Instead they currently are at best on the
bubble with ratings of #60/#57/#18 – outside bubble range in RPI &
BPI. Record splits of 1-4/1-4/5-9 will
also not get the job done; and a mark of 2-5 over their L7 with those two wins
coming over last place DePaul does them no favors. They also do not have a Top 90 OOC win, and
close with 3 of 4 on the road. PC likely
needs 3-1 over those final four to remain in contention. The Big East seems like a four bid league
with an outside shot at 5 if either PC or Georgetown can get VERY hot VERY
quickly.
2. Georgetown
(15-11/6-8) – the Hoyas lost 5 straight to close out January, rebounded nicely
winning 4 straight to open February including a great OOC win over Michigan
State on a neutral floor, but dropped their last two leaving their chances very
much in peril. Their ratings stand at
just #62/#78/#58, clearly outside at-large range, as is their 2-6 mark on the
road. They do however have the best record
splits amongst the Big East teams sitting at 2-3/3-4/5-8, and not only have
that MSU win but they also beat likely tourney teams VCU & Kansas State on
neutral floors earlier in the season.
Georgetown has fallen dramatically losing to SJU & HALL on the road
this past week, and will need a miracle finish to reach the dance barring
earning the conference’s automatic bid.
With their closing schedule expect the Hoyas to be off next week’s
edition.
Big Sky: Weber
State
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Michigan
State
Looking Good: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio
State, Iowa
Need
Wins:
1. Minnesota
(16-10/6-8) – the Gophers continued their free fall this week, just as was my
concern because we have seen this tune play out often over the last few seasons
(keep in mind their record vs. D1 opponents is 16-10, one less win than what
you may see elsewhere on television).
They currently have bubble but falling ratings of #42/#48/#35, have lost
5 of their last 7 including a bad home loss to Illinois this week, and haven’t won
back to back conference games all season.
The Gophers have a respectable record split of 2-4/3-6/4-8 as far as
wins go by category, but are just 3-7 on road/neutral courts this season. Since the Big Ten is very likely the top
conference in the country simply reaching 9-9 should be enough (along with 1
B10 tourney win), which means a 3-1 close – no lock for certain. That home loss to Illinois really leaves them
behind the 8 ball with a closing slate of @OSU, IOWA, @MICH, PSU coming
up. Looks like another strong start but
weak close for Minnesota this season, leaving them out of the dance.
2. Nebraska
(15-10/7-6) – the Huskers make their debut in my bracketology late in the game
barring a solid run of late winning 4 straight and 6 of their L7. Ratings of #49/#65/#56 are outside typical
bubble range, but record splits of 2-6/3-7/5-7 are within bubble range. A road mark of 2-7, and a road/neutral record
of 3-9 is not good, nor is top OOC win over current RPI #93 Georgia. Their huge road win at Michigan State clearly
gets the in the conversation, but with NU it’s likely they will need a 4-1
close to their regular season with a schedule of PUR, @ILL, NW, @IND, WIS. Seems unlikely but the Huskers have been
proving people wrong all year and just may get this done.
Big West: UC-Santa
Barbara
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: Southern
Mississippi
If
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid
– they would need to reach the CUSA Tournament Final to have any chance.
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Toledo
If
TOLEDO does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid
– they would need to reach the MAC Tournament Final to have any chance.
MEAC: North
Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Mountain West: San
Diego State
Looking Good: New Mexico
Life Support:
1. Boise
State (15-9/7-6) – keep in mind BSU has two non D1 wins so their true record is
the 15-9 I list here. Ratings of #54/#50/#30
are mostly just outside typical bubble status, while record splits of 1-5/1-5/2-8
are well outside recognition as is a top OOC win coming over current RPI #97
Utah. With a 7-6 mark in conference play
a close of at least 4-1 is necessary, and frankly unlikely. The Broncos will remain for another week but
are very likely to be removed by next edition.
Northeast: Robert
Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac 12: Arizona
Looking Good: UCLA
Need
Wins:
1. Colorado
(20-7/9-5) – the Buffaloes are very close to sliding up to the Looking Good
category, but since so many Pac 12 teams are within one game of each other it’s
tough to slide them up just yet. Their
ratings currently sit at #24/#43/#38, which are solid and largely unchanged
since last edition; their record splits are 1-3/3-6/10-7, also better than
average for the typical bubble team and improving. The Buffs have now gone 6-3 without the
services of G Spencer Dinwiddie, steadying themselves. The bubble story in the P12 remains bunched,
so their best bet would be to continue winning – and a huge opportunity at home
versus Arizona is up next.
2. Arizona
State (19-7/8-5) – ASU took down rival Arizona last week as they have won 6 of
8 firmly in the mix of at-large teams; but like every other season it seems
there is A LOT to be decided in this conference over the final month of regular
season play. The magic # as far as
conference wins is measured on the recent past seems to be 11 – post an 11-7 or
better mark in conference play, win your first P12 tournament game and you will
earn a bid. The Sun Devils have the
ratings #31/#33/#40 & record splits 2-4/4-5/8-6 to earn their bid with a
3-2 close to their conference slate despite a non-conference SOS of #208. But their closing schedule isn’t easy facing
@UTAH, STAN, CAL, @ORE, @OSU. That tight
loss at Colorado this week could have made a major difference had they pulled
off that win.
3. California
(17-9/8-5) – just 3-5 in their L8 but one of those wins was over #1 Arizona;
they did let a huge chance slip through their hands this week losing big at
home to UCLA. Obviously beating the
Wildcats gives the Bears that signature win; now they must win enough
conference games to earn a bid – and like ASU that means a 3-2 close – which is
certainly not a lock. They will face the
same schedule as Stanford (besides first game USC/UCLA) which is: USC, @ARI,
@ASU, UTAH, COLO. They will be favored
in their three home games, underdogs in their two road games. Ratings currently stand at #50/#56/#54,
borderline bubble territory; record splits are 1-4/3-6/7-8, not bad; a 5-4 road
mark is strong but only one current Top 100 OOC win over RPI #69 Arkansas doesn’t
help the story a ton.
4. Stanford
(17-8/8-5) – the Cardinal picked up a much needed 2-0 mark since last edition –
good news. Bad news is a tough closing
slate starting with UCLA this weekend.
Stanford doesn’t have that huge win over Arizona like California does,
but they did beat current RPI #27 UConn in OOC play, which helps. Ratings currently stand at #48/#35/#48,
stronger than Cal and in position to earn an at-large; record splits are
0-3/4-6/5-8, not awful; a road mark of 6-3 is excellent. If the Cardinal can pick up those 11
conference wins they will be well positioned.
Life Support:
1. Oregon
(17-8/5-8) – the Ducks went 2-0 last week sliding closer to being a true bubble
team as their ratings of #39/#21/#42 are very strong amongst bubble
contenders. However a few holes remain
in their resume, the biggest of which is a conference mark of just 5-8, meaning
even with a 4-1 close that would be just 9-9 and likely the 7th best
Pac 12 team which would likely not be enough.
Record splits of 0-3/1-6/8-8 isn’t strong, and although they have some
OK OOC wins they haven’t won one single game all season versus a team likely to
earn a bid – including during conference play.
Oregon has a ton of work to do moving forward, and are closer to being
left off the next edition than getting firmly in the mix.
Patriot: Boston
University
SEC: Florida
Looking Good: Kentucky
Need
Wins:
1. Missouri
(19-7/7-6) – the Tigers were close to moving up to Looking Good as their
ratings are mostly good at #36/#32/#77. They
have now won 3 straight including a huge home win over fellow SEC bubble team
Tennessee last weekend. They have now
faced just three Top 50 teams all season (winning just one over UCLA very early
in the season) leading to a non-conference SOS of #132; combined that with a
one game above .500 record in SEC play they remain in the Need Wins category. Mizzou sits at 6-5 in road/neutral games this
year which is solid, and considering they close with 3 of 5 on the road that
may help them more. They should easily
handle their two remaining home SEC games; if they did that winning 1 of 3 road
games should leave them sitting well. I
still firmly believe Missouri will be dancing.
2. Tennessee
(15-10/7-6) – the Vols (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 15-10
currently) have ratings of #51/#37/#7, leaving them in the bubble range besides
the SBPI which shows them as a very solid club.
UT has a pair of excellent OOC wins over Xavier & Virginia, but they
have lost to Florida twice and Kentucky once in conference play (they do not
play UK again in regular season). UT has
record splits of 1-4/1-5/6-9 with their lone top 50 win mentioned above over
Virginia (which also could be their only win over a tourney team unless Xavier
and/or LSU earns a bid) – they still clearly need quality wins, but the problem
is playing in the SEC will not give them that chance. They must beat Missouri at home in their
closing game, along with a minimum of 2-2 over their other 4 (3 of which come
on the road – the Vols are 2-6 on the road this season). Tennessee seems destined to be amongst the
last four in or out come Selection Sunday.
Life Support:
1. LSU
(16-9/7-6) – the Tigers ratings have remained nearly static since our last
update at #66/#62/#90, keeping their at-large hopes in danger. The Tigers still have to face Kentucky &
Florida on the road, likely needing to win one of those to remain in discussion
or their ratings will remain too low (and considering they already beat
Kentucky at home it’s unlikely they win in Lexington). Their record splits are more than respectable
at 1-1/3-2/5-6, but road games have haunted these young & inexperienced
Tigers going just 2-6. A minimum of 3-2
is needed with one of those 3 wins being over Florida or Kentucky on the road
to remain in contention; otherwise it will be winning the SEC Tournament to
earn the auto bid.
2. Ole
Miss (16-10/7-6) – the Rebels have seen their ratings drop to #76/#63/#80
following their third straight loss earlier this week. The Rebels have now lost 5 of their L7 with
the two wins coming at home by a combined 7 points. The Rebels are also just 0-2 vs. Top 25
teams, and have the least amount of wins vs. Top 25/50/100 of all SEC bubble
teams – not good; throw in a loss to sub 150 RPI Mississippi State and it’s
starting to look bleak for the Rebels chances.
Losses to Georgia and Alabama on the road by a combined 4 points may
wind up costing Ole Miss on Selection Sunday; they still have 5 games remaining
but seems like they will need to beat Florida at home, along with going 3-1 in
their other 4 to remain in contention.
3. Arkansas
(17-9/6-7) – like all other SEC bubble teams non-conference SOS remains an issue
as the Razorbacks sit at #176 there, not very productive. They have remained in contention over the
last few weeks by winning 4 of their L5, but will close with 3 of 5 on the road
– not good for a team sitting at 1-5 on the road this year. Their record splits of 1-1/3-5/6-8 isn’t
awful, but they are way behind the 8 ball at just 6-7 in the subpar SEC. They most likely need a 4-1 close (with one
of those wins coming at Kentucky) at a minimum to remain in the discussion –
fairly unlikely.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: North
Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia
State
West Coast: Gonzaga
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Need Wins:
1. BYU
(18-10/11-5) – the Cougars (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 18-10
currently) are #37/#47/#47, and helped themselves more than any other team in
the country over the last week with wins at St. Mary’s and home against
Gonzaga. The Cougars are well positioned
to earn an at-large selection, but let’s also recognize they play in the WCC
and cannot afford many hiccups coming home.
They have faced the 5th toughest non-conference SOS, which
will likely help their cause should their resume be compared to someone else’s
come Selection Sunday, and have wins over likely tourney teams Stanford and
Texas; record splits of 1-3/3-5/7-6 is pretty solid. BYU has to avoid the letdown vs. Portland at
home in their next game – which shouldn’t be a problem considering they lost to
the Pilots earlier this year in a 3OT thriller.
Following that they would close at San Diego – win both and they would
be 20-10/13-5 with quite a few key wins nationally and within the WCC….avoid a
very early WCC Tournament exit and the Cougars appear to be dancing.
WAC: New Mexico
State
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
(up from 31 due to new American Athletic Conference)
LOOKING GOOD: 22
(up from 20 last week with UNC & New Mexico added)
Currently I project 54
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 14
LIFE SUPPORT: 15 –
many of these teams are extremely close to being left off all together
That leaves 29 teams that are in the mix for 14 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
The remaining 14 open bids in this week’s edition will be
made up again of two categories – the first is 10 teams I feel are extremely
likely to continue winning enough games to earn their bid (in conference
alphabetical order):
SMU
Xavier
St. John’s
Colorado
Arizona State
California
Stanford
Missouri
Tennessee
BYU
LAST FOUR IN (of
the 19 remaining teams – EXTREMELY TOUGH to project right now) – alphabetical
order:
Florida State
St. Joseph’s (PA)
Minnesota
West Virginia
**KEEP IN MIND IT’S UNLIKELY FOUR OF THESE TEAMS MAKE THE
NCAA TOURNAMENT BECAUSE OF UPSETS AND BID-STEALING SPOTS THAT WILL INEVITABLY
OCCUR IN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS.
FIRST FOUR OUT –
alphabetical order:
Nebraska
Oregon
Providence
Richmond
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (6): -1 / Oklahoma State
P12 (6)
B10 (6)
A10 (5): +1 / St. Joseph’s (PA)
ACC (6): +1 / Florida State
AAC (5)
SEC (4)
BE (4): -2 / Providence & Georgetown
WCC (2): +1 / BYU
MWC (2)
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