This is our third installment of bracketology and comes as
we head into the final stretch of conference play. Below we breakdown each conference into four
buckets: 1) automatic bid [discussed in next sentence]; 2) looking good [teams
highly likely to play well enough over the final month of the regular season to
earn a bid]; 3) need wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to
play well to close their season]; 4) life support [teams that still have an
outside shot at earning a bid if they close season strong but are closer to
falling off list vs. earning a bid]. For
the non-AQ conferences we generally select the team with the highest RPI as the
conference winner/automatic bid. Teams
are also listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference. In addition ratings in team discussion are
quoted as RPI/BPI/SBPI (my new Power Ratings for college basketball), and
records listed are vs. Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 (aggregated). Lastly, I always err on the side of including
a team versus adding them to a later version, and also lean towards rating a
team below where they should be as I look to avoid sliding teams backwards in
the buckets.
America East: Vermont
American Athletic:
Louisville
Looking Good: Cincinnati,
UConn, Memphis
Need
Wins:
1. SMU
(19-5/8-3) – the Mustangs have been
upgraded from Life Support last edition following wins over Memphis &
Cincinnati. They are now 8-1 in their L9
overall, have ratings of #39/#25/#85 and a solid conference record. SMU is just 1-2/3-3/4-4 which are improved and
turning into a positive; as long as they win the games they should I expect the
Mustangs to be invited to the Big Dance for the first time in 20+ years.
Atlantic Ten: St.
Louis
Looking Good: VCU, UMass, George
Washington
Need Wins:
1. Richmond
(16-8/6-3) – ratings of #40/#66/#82 leave a lot to be desired but the Spiders
are playing their best ball since conference play began going 6-2 over their L8
with those pair of losses coming at St. Louis & at VCU. For the A10 to get 5+ teams in the big dance
these three bubble teams led by Richmond will need to continue picking up as
their record splits are a respectable 1-3/2-5/6-8. The Spiders schedule down the stretch is not
tough as 4 of 7 will come at home, and 2 of the 3 road games are at George
Mason & Rhode Island – who are among 4 teams tied for last place in the
conference. Home games versus GW &
VCU, along with their last game of the regular season at Dayton will be huge in
determining their fate – and they must be targeting 2-1 in those.
2. St.
Joseph’s, PA (16-7/6-3) – the Hawks have ratings of #45/#69/#67 and records of
2-4/2-5/3-6, both in bubble territory. What
really keeps the Hawks alive is the pair of Top 25 wins they picked up over the
last two weeks, proving they are bubble worthy at this point. Like Richmond they close with a favorable schedule
with a home game vs. Dayton and a roadie at GW the only two of seven coming
against teams in contention for a bid.
They likely need 5-2 or better over those 7 which would leave them at
21-9/11-5; adding in a conference tourney win or two on top of that could be
enough.
Life
Support:
1. Dayton
(17-8/5-5) – ratings of #56/#55/#44 have improved of late and have the Flyers back
on the fringe of bubble discussion; but make no mistake they have a lot of work
left to do to even come up in discussion on Selection Sunday. Records of 1-2/3-4/6-5 are OK (especially 3
Top 50 wins), but a 5-5 mark in the A10 needs improvement. Dayton easily has the toughest schedule of
the three bubble A10 teams with games @STJ, UMASS, @STL, RICH still on the
slate. That is good and bad; they will
have plenty of chances to improve their resume, but should they lose just two
more conference games their best A10 record would be 9-7, which would not be
good enough for at-large consideration.
ACC: Syracuse
Looking Good: Duke, Virginia,
Pittsburgh
Need
Wins:
1. North
Carolina (16-7/6-4) – UNC has been climbing of late now sitting with ratings of
#33/#33/#22, and also sporting impressive record splits of 2-3/4-3/7-5 – all well
within at-large range leading the Tar Heels to likely inclusion in the Looking
Good category next edition. UNC has won
5 straight and 6 of 7 but still has 8 games remaining in their regular season
with 5 of those coming against teams listed here. Even if UNC goes just 4-4 down the stretch
leaving them at 20-11/10-8 they would be a lock to earn a bid.
Life Support:
1. Florida
State (14-10/5-7) – arguably no team has hurt themselves since our last edition
as much as FSU has considering they have gone just 2-6 in their L8, leaving
them very much in danger of missing the dance (especially when considering
those two wins came at home against Notre Dame & Virginia Tech). Their closing schedule is manageable while
offering chances to pick up the big wins they so badly need: expect their
chances to boil down to three games – UNC, @Pitt, Syracuse – win 2 of those 3
along with the other 3 (meaning a 5-1 close) and they would finish 19-11/10-8,
earning them a bid most likely with one ACC Tournament win. With a 4-2 close their chances wouldn’t be
null, but they would have work to do in the ACC Tournament. Their current rankings are #63/#49/#63, and
they own records of 2-5/2-6/4-9 – firmly at best on the bubble.
2. NC
State (16-8/6-5) – the Pack have improved their resume the last 2 weeks as they
now sit at #51/#72/#97, which is marginal in RPI but leaving a lot to be
desired in BPI & SBPI. Records of
0-3/1-6/5-7 are not up to snuff despite winning 5 of their last 6, many of
which have unfortunately come not only at home, but against the bottom teams in
the conference. They still have to face
the 3 teams of note FSU does, and their other 4 (again like FSU) come against
teams not listed here – so there is still a legitimate chance especially
considering the way they are currently playing that they remain on fire. However, they need signature wins badly; like
FSU NC State hopes to reach 10 conference wins to feel solid about their
chances – that means a 4-3 finish with at least one win versus Syracuse, UNC or
Pittsburgh. A 9-9 conference record
without a win over at least one of the big three they will face down the
stretch will leave too much work to be done in the ACC Tournament.
3. Clemson
(15-8/6-5) – very possibly the last team included on life support in any
conference this edition, similar to last time.
Ratings of #68/#58/#74 show a lot of work remains, and a non-conference
SOS of #296 is terrible and often a number the committee likes to expose. Considering those numbers I believe Clemson
needs 11-7 in conference play which would be a 5-2 close from where they stand
today because they have records of just 1-2/1-4/3-6. Believe it or not a 5-2 close isn’t out of
the question considering Clemson will play 5 of their last 7 at home, the two
road games are Georgia Tech & Wake Forest, and they will just face 2 of the
top 5 teams in the conference (bookending their close hosting UVA and Pitt in
the finale). Don’t close them out just
yet as the chances will be there, but the question remains – are they good
enough to take advantage? I do not
believe so.
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big 12: Kansas
Looking Good: Texas, Iowa State,
Kansas State, Oklahoma
Need
Wins:
1. Oklahoma
State (16-8/4-7) – the Cowboys have absolutely fallen apart since the calendar
turned to 2014 going 4-7 including losing their last 5. Their ratings are down to #36/#21/#28, which
are still firmly in bubble category, but falling quickly. Their record breakdown helps sitting at 2-3/3-6/6-7
so far, and they will have plenty of chances in the solid B12 to continue improving
those figures. On the bad side is a 2-5
road record, and a 4-7 conference record leaving them tied for 8th. The Boys will be without Marcus Smart in
their next two games, and frankly they need to at least win one of those; if
they did that, and won their last 5 they would finish the B12 season at 10-8
which may be good enough with a win or two in the B12 Tournament considering
their ratings & record splits. But as
you can see considering Smart’s suspension, the way the team is currently
playing, their current conference record and how strong the B12 is it’s going
to be difficult for the Cowboys to make the Big Dance – an amazing feat
considering this was a Top 5 team earlier in the season.
Life Support:
1. West
Virginia (15-10/7-5) – the Mountaineers have made a move in the last few weeks
going 4-1 in their L5 sliding their ratings to #66/#46/#48, which is weak in
RPI but within range in BPI & SBPI.
Their record splits are 1-4/3-8/4-8 which is solid as far as Top 50 wins
go. Even though WVU is now in position
to earn an at-large thanks to a fabulous coaching job by Bob Huggins they’re
firmly going uphill in a blizzard as their remaining schedule of six includes
road trips to Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma along with hosting Kansas to close
their regular season. Currently at 7-5
in B12 play, if they can close 4-2 to finish at 11-7 (which would also then add
two likely Top 25 wins to their resume) they would get right into the mix; 3-3
they would be alive but need to probably reach the B12 SF round; anything less
they are in trouble.
2. Baylor
(13-9/3-8) – remember despite Baylor posting a current 15-9 mark two of those
wins came against non D1 competition so for all intents and purposes they are
currently 13-9, not good. In addition the
Bears sit at a woeful 3-8 in conference play, which is almost insurmountable to
overcome and earn an at-large (even if they got very hot down the stretch)
unless they earned the conference’s automatic bid. At an absolute bare minimum Baylor needs to close
the regular season 6-1, meaning they are likely to be left off the very next
edition as their chances are slim and none.
As an FYI their ratings are #53/#57/#20, not solid besides the SBPI.
Big East: Villanova
Looking Good: Creighton
Need
Wins:
1. Xavier
(17-7/7-4) – I have dropped X down one level to Need Wins as they have gone
just 2-3 over their L5, and a couple other Big East teams have gotten hot and
are making a run at a bid. It’s tough to
forecast how many bids this new Big East will earn, so outside the top 2 (Villanova
& Creighton) the other teams should feel concern along with a sense of
urgency. Xavier does have a pair of nice
non-conference wins over Tennessee & Cincinnati which will greatly help
them and the rest of the conference come Selection Sunday. With records of 1-2/2-4/7-5 and ratings of
#44/#38/#39 they are well within range for an at-large; a conference mark of
7-4 is solid but with 7 games remaining that could still change a lot. Right now Xavier is in the field, but they
must watch their backs with Georgetown & St John’s especially, two teams
they play on the road in back to back outings next week.
Life Support:
1. Georgetown
(15-9/6-6) – the Hoyas lost 5 straight to close out January but have rebounded
nicely winning 4 straight to open February including a great OOC win over
Michigan State on a neutral floor.
However, the Hoyas ratings stand at just #57/#61/#56 – which is the
weakest amongst the trio of Big East bubble teams. They do however have perhaps the best record
splits sitting at 2-3/3-5/5-7, and not only have that MSU win but they also
beat likely tourney teams VCU & Kansas State on neutral floors earlier in
the season. Georgetown clearly has the
toughest closing slate of the bubble Big East teams with 4 of 6 coming on the
road (including at SJU & NOVA; and a home game vs. Creighton) – which could
be both good and bad. I have put them as
tops amongst Big East bubble teams since they have the big OOC wins to hang
their hat on – something Providence and St John’s lacks.
2. Providence
(16-9/6-6) – these three bubble Big East schools are all so close to each other
in just about every metric (including the fact PC is 2-2 vs. SJU & GTOWN) a
lot is still to be determined. After
winning 5 straight in January the Friars have now lost 4 of their last 5 and
have to turn their free-fall around right now to remain in contention. Of their last 6 games only 2 come against
teams in contention for a bid; sadly for PC those two are Villanova and at
Creighton, tough matchups. Rankings
currently stand at #58/#64/#15 and records are 1-3/2-4/6-8 – they are both needing
improvement to make a strong case for inclusion.
3. St.
John’s (16-9/6-6) – the Red Storm have been playing solid basketball for most
of 2014, but the results have really just started showing. SJU has won 4 straight and 7 of their L8
games, and although they are 7-3 over their L10 those 3 losses have come by a
combined 6 points. Sunday’s win over
Creighton gives the Johnnies that signature win they desired – now can they
handle business against some of the weaker conference teams over their final 6
games to get firmly in the at-large picture?
That Creighton win is their only Top 50 win, and records of 1-4/1-5/4-7
leave a lot to be desired. SJU needs at
least a 4-2 close (probably even 5-1) to get in the mix come early March,
possible but how probable is the question.
For comparative purposes their rankings stand at #60/#48/#53, worse than
Providence in 2 of the 3.
Big Sky: Weber
State
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Michigan
State
Looking Good: Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio
State, Iowa
Need
Wins:
1. Minnesota
(15-9/5-7) – the Gophers have dropped recently, just as was my concern because
we have seen this tune play out often over the last few seasons (keep in mind
their record vs. D1 opponents is 15-9, one less win than what you may see
elsewhere on television). They currently
have solid ratings of #38/#41/#25 but have lost 4 of their last 5. The Gophers have a decent record split of
2-4/3-5/5-8 as far as wins go by category, but are just a miserable 2-7 on
road/neutral courts this season. OOC
losses to Arkansas & Nebraska will not do them any favors, nor will closing
their season with 3 of 5 on the road.
Since the Big Ten is very likely the top conference in the country
simply reaching 9-9 should be enough (along with 1 B10 tourney win), which means
a 4-2 close – no lock for certain. If
they can sweep their 3 home games vs. Illinois, Iowa & Penn State, just
needing one win from their three road games (2 of which come against locks to
be dancing) will be critical – if they drop any of their home contests the
fight to earn that at-large gets a lot tougher.
Big West: UC-Santa
Barbara
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: Southern
Mississippi
If SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid
– they would need to reach the CUSA Tournament Final to have any chance.
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Toledo
If TOLEDO
does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid – they would need to reach
the MAC Tournament Final to have any chance.
MEAC: North
Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Mountain West: San
Diego State
Need
Wins:
1. New
Mexico (18-5/9-2) – the Lobos remain close to the Looking Good category but I
am not yet ready to slide them up a level following their loss at Boise State. Their ratings are solid for the most part checking
in at #35/#43/#72 – they rate much lower in the SBPI because of a bad
defense. On the good side is a very
solid 9-3 road/neutral record, which by itself is almost enough to earn a bid. Record splits of 1-2/1-2/6-4 is OK but lacks
big name wins; beating San Diego State in one of their two upcoming meetings
would really set up the Lobos nicely.
Expect NM to slide up into the Looking Good category in the near future.
Life Support:
1. Boise
State (14-9/6-6) – the Broncos picked up a huge win taking down New Mexico at
home by 1pt, good for their first Top 100 win of the season (since then Utah
has slipped into the Top 100 giving them two)!
Also keep in mind BSU has two non D1 wins so their true record is the
14-9 I list here. Ratings of #59/#50/#31
are mostly outside typical bubble status, as are record splits of 0-4/1-5/2-7. Currently sitting at 6-6 in conference play a
close of at least 5-1 is necessary, and frankly unlikely.
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac 12: Arizona
Looking Good: UCLA
Need
Wins:
1. Colorado
(18-7/7-5) – the Buffaloes had struggled immediately following the loss of
their star G Spencer Dinwiddie and have struggled on the road in conference
playing losing their last four. The
Buffaloes currently lead this huge group of bubble contenders in the Pac 12
because they are ahead of fellow bubble teams in most critical categories. Their ratings currently sit at #25/#45/#38,
which are solid; their record splits are 1-3/2-5/9-7, also better than average
for the typical bubble team. A 3-6
road/neutral record leaves a little to be desired, but as long as CU keeps
winning games they will earn their bid – but this will be a tough team to judge
come Selection Sunday.
2. Arizona
State (18-6/7-4) – ASU is tied record wise with Colorado as they have won 5 of
6 and burst right into the main mix of at-large teams; but like every other
season it seems there is A LOT to be decided in this conference over the final
month of regular season play. The magic
# as far as conference wins is measured on the recent past seems to be 11 –
post an 11-7 or better mark in conference play, win your first P12 tournament
game and you will earn a bid. The Sun
Devils have the ratings #37/#32/#43 & record splits 1-3/3-4/6-5 to make
that ring true again with a 4-3 close to their conference slate. I think they will get that done.
3. California
(16-8/7-4) – the Golden Bears are virtually locked up with Stanford for the 3rd
bubble spot in the Pac 12. I gave the
edge to Cal this time around based on a better conference record, but these two
teams are nearly identical in most metrics (as mentioned above all these P12
teams are so close). Cal is just 2-4 in
their L6 but one of those wins was over #1 Arizona; the other was a narrow OT
win at Washington State, cause for concern.
Obviously beating the Wildcats gives the Bears that signature win; now
they must win enough conference games to earn a bid – and like ASU that means a
4-3 close – that is certainly not a lock and will be difficult to achieve examining
those final 7 games on the schedule.
4. Stanford
(15-8/6-5) – the Cardinal will close with the same schedule as Cal (which isn’t
an easy one), but with a current 6-5 mark they appear to need a 5-2 finish
which will be extremely difficult to achieve.
Stanford also doesn’t have that big win over Arizona like California
does making their next matchup with the Wildcats critical. Right now it seems the P12 will earn 5 bids
with that final 5th bid coming down to Cal, Stanford and possibly
Oregon.
Life Support:
1. Oregon
(15-8/3-8) – the Ducks started off the season very hot at 13-0 but now sits at
15-8 after losing 8 of 10 since conference play began. Although some of their metrics are within
at-large range the biggest issue facing the Ducks is a conference record that
sits at just 3-8; if they closed the year winning their last 7 they would be
10-8 in P12 play – meaning more wins would be needed in the P12
Tournament. After such a great start to their
season it appears the Ducks will be left off the next edition, and will need to
win the P12 automatic bid to be dancing.
Patriot: Boston
University
SEC: Florida
Looking Good: Kentucky
Need
Wins:
1. Missouri
(17-7/5-6) – the Tigers were close to moving up to Looking Good as their ratings
are mostly good at #43/#30/#77. They
bounced back from a 3 game losing streak by beating Arkansas at home narrowly,
sliding them up to 5-6 in conference play.
They have now faced just three Top 50 teams all season (winning just one
over UCLA very early in the season) leading to a non-conference SOS of #119;
combined that with a sub .500 record in SEC play they are very much behind the
8 ball as far as earning an at-large berth goes. All that being said Mizzou closes with 4 of 7
at home, and their three road games come against Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee
– very manageable. Remember I project
what I think the tournament will look like come Selection Sunday, not what
teams have accomplished to this point in the season – and with that in mind I
firmly believe Missouri will earn a spot.
2. Tennessee
(14-9/6-5) – the Vols (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 14-9 currently)
have ratings of #50/#42/#8, leaving them in the bubble range besides the SBPI
which shows them as a solid club. UT has
very nice OOC wins over Xavier & Virginia, but they have lost to Florida
twice and Kentucky once in conference play (they do not play UK again in
regular season). For both the Vols and
the Tigers listed above their home and home series will be critical – Saturday
in Columbia & closing Saturday in Knoxville; if either team is able to pull
off the sweep the other team’s chances will be dramatically impacted. When all is said & done I feel the SEC
will be a four bid league with an outside shot at a 5th, so the Vols
are in the driver’s seat but must keep winning.
Life Support:
1. Ole
Miss (16-8/7-4) – the Rebels have the best conference mark of the SEC bubble
boys, yet their ratings of #61/#60/#84 leave a lot to be desired as far as
their at-large chances go. The Rebels
are also just 0-1 vs. Top 25 teams, and have the least amount of wins vs. Top
25/50/100 of all SEC bubble teams – not good.
Ole Miss’ schedule is not brutal to close as they do face Kentucky &
Florida at home – two solid chances to pick up a signature win, and there isn’t
a game they will face a huge spread as an underdog. The Rebels will likely be one of the last
four teams in or out of the dance come Selections Sunday, and they may be
watching for conference tourney upsets in smaller conferences which will impact
their chances. They need a signature win
or two down the stretch badly.
2. LSU
(15-8/6-5) – the Tigers ratings have slipped since our last update all the way
down to #65/#63/#92, placing their at-large hopes in danger. The Tigers have lost 4 straight on the road
in conference play (3 of the 4 against non-tourney teams), and must get their
defense figured out before their chances for a special season go right down the
tubes. LSU has nice wins over Kentucky,
Missouri and St. Joseph’s to hang their hats on, but a home loss to Rhode
Island may loom large come Selection Sunday.
A very tough closing slate that includes four road games at Arkansas,
Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt will likely determine their fate – pick up 2
wins and they are in the mix; anything less and it will be tough.
3. Arkansas
(15-9/4-7) – the Razorbacks are a funky team as far as the metrics go, and
barely remain included here following their 1pt loss at Missouri. Their ratings offer wide variety as their RPI
is just #76, yet their BPI of #44 & SBPI #45 are within at-large
range. Their record splits are also in
play at 1-2/3-6/5-8, but a road/neutral record of 3-7 is certain cause for
concern. With a current 4-7 mark in
conference play they will need at least a 6-1 close to their season, which
seems highly unlikely even if they had an easy close to conference play – which
they do not. I expect Arkansas to drop
off my next edition.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: North
Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia
State
West Coast: Gonzaga
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Life Support:
1. BYU
(16-10/9-5) – the Cougars (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 16-10
currently) are #49/#51/#47, now ahead of the Gaels in the ratings this
week. They have faced the 5th
toughest non-conference SOS, which will likely help their cause should their
resume be compared to someone else’s come Selection Sunday. Records of 1-4/2-5/6-7 is pretty solid, and
because of that the Cougars will be battling the Gaels down the stretch for a
possible second bid for the WCC. As far
as the WCC regular season goes it would appear that either BYU or St. Mary’s
would need to reach 14-4 in conference play to make a strong case for at-large –
that means St. Mary’s is only chance to accomplish that feat. With that in mind it seems unlikely either of
the two can secure or even put themselves in solid position to earn a bid
before the WCC Tournament; if either can finish 13-5 in conference play AND
reach the WCCT Final they will be in the mix.
2. St.
Mary’s (18-7/9-4) – this isn’t a typical St. Mary’s squad (who like BYU lose
one non D1 win leaving them at 18-7 currently) as their ratings are just
#52/#53/#46, and they only have 1 win over a Top 50 team. See BYU’s comments as these teams will be
battling each other for any chance at earning an at-large bid; if a team other
than Gonzaga, BYU or St Mary’s was to win the WCC Tournament neither BYU or St
Mary’s would have much of a shot at getting a bid.
WAC: New Mexico
State
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
(up from 31 due to new American Athletic Conference)
LOOKING GOOD: 20
Currently I project 52
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 14
LIFE SUPPORT: 16
That leaves 30 teams that are in the mix for 16 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 16 open bids I see them breaking down into
two buckets – the first bucket is teams that are likely to earn a bid (10
teams), and the second bucket is the remaining 20 teams who which 6 will earn a
bid – also remembering my point above that this all assumes no conference tournament
upsets which is highly unlikely to occur.
The most likely scenario is about 3 of these 20 teams wind up earning a
bid.
First Bucket (10
teams whose chances of earning a bid are significantly higher than the second
bucket teams, but these are not “locks” yet) – alphabetical order:
Arizona State
Colorado
Minnesota
Missouri
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
SMU
Tennessee
Xavier
LAST SIX IN (of
the 20 remaining teams I have in my summary the final 6 bids, which is
extremely tough to decipher at this point in the season) – alphabetical order:
California
Georgetown
Providence
St. John’s
Stanford
West Virginia
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order:
Boise State
BYU
Florida State
Ole Miss
Richmond
Multiple bid
conferences (total of 45 bids in 9 conferences; 23 single bid conferences = 68
bids):
B12 (7)
P12 (6)
B10 (6)
BE (6)
ACC (5)
AAC (5)
SEC (4)
A10 (4)
MWC (2)
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