This is our second installment of bracketology and comes as
we head into the meat of conference play and at the end of January. Below we breakdown each conference into four
buckets: 1) automatic bid [discussed in next sentence]; 2) looking good [teams
highly likely to play well enough over the final two months of the regular
season to earn a bid]; 3) need wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and
will need to play well to close their season]; 4) life support [teams that
still have an outside shot at earning a bid if they close season strong but are
closer to falling off list vs. earning a bid]. For the non-AQ conferences we generally select
the team with the highest RPI as the conference winner/automatic bid. Teams are also listed in the s-curve order I
see them now within conference. In
addition ratings in team discussion are quoted as RPI/BPI, and records listed
are vs. Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 (aggregated).
Lastly, I always err on the side of including a team versus adding them
to a later version, and also lean towards rating a team below where they should
be as I look to avoid sliding teams backwards in the buckets. Bolded teams are currently projected in the
Field of 68:
America East: Stony
Brook
American Athletic:
Louisville
Looking good: Cincinnati,
Memphis
Need
wins:
1. UConn – Huskies are #34/#29 which are
solid and well within at-large range, and have a solid record breakdown of
2-0/3-2/703. But they are just 5-3 in
AAC play, which isn’t one of the better conferences in the country. They will have plenty of opportunities to
pick up key wins, and could still easily finish 2nd best in this
conference when all is said and done.
UConn is almost up to the Looking Good category.
Life Support:
1. SMU
– the Mustangs rate in range for an at-large checking in at #51/#31 and are 5-3
in AAC play but lost a critical road game this week at South Florida. SMU is just 0-2/1-3/1-4 which are not good
marks; only 1 win vs. Top 100 teams leaves them in the life support category
but like the Huskies they will have plenty of opportunities to pick up big wins
starting Saturday at home vs. Memphis.
Atlantic Ten: UMass
Looking good: St. Louis, George
Washington, VCU
Life
Support:
1. Richmond
– ratings of #48/#66 leave a little to be desired but the Spiders are playing
their best ball since conference play began currently sitting at 4-2 tied for 4th. For the A10 to get 5+ teams in the big dance
these three led by Richmond will need to pick up multiple big wins because they
currently check in at 1-3/1-4/5-7. We
know Richmond plays well at home, but big road wins will determine their fate,
especially versus Top 50 squads (all 4 teams listed ahead of them in the A10
are Top 50 so plenty of chances to pad their resume).
2. St.
Joseph’s (PA) – the Hawks have ratings of #58/#72 and records of
0-3/0-4/2-5. Just two top 100 wins and 0
top 50 wins is not the resume of a tourney team, and unless that changes very
quickly the Hawks will be dropped from consideration. They picked up a nice road win over Dayton
earlier this week, and have a big opportunity Saturday when they host UMass.
ACC: Syracuse
Looking good: Duke, Pittsburgh,
Virginia
Need
wins:
1. Florida State – the Seminoles are very
close to moving up to Looking Good status but before I do slide them up I would
like to see some more quality wins. They
currently sit at #32/#39 and have faced a tough schedule but haven’t won many
with records of 1-6/2-6/5-7. FSU will
have plenty of chances to score big wins, and I feel they will likely do enough
to secure a bid; but beating the four teams ahead of them will be paramount moving
forward.
2. North Carolina – UNC has been very up
& down this season posting records of 2-2/4-3/5-6 which is a lot of Top
25/Top 50 wins. But their ratings are
just #42/#46 because of some subpar losses & just a 3-4 mark in the
ACC. Like the former Big East it’s
likely a .500 record in ACC play will be enough for any team to earn a bid, so
the Heels are still in the mix but will really need to play well, and steal a
few road games to remain in contention.
Life Support:
1. Wake
Forest – the Deacons have to be targeting 9 conference wins, and currently
sitting at 4-4 is an on-target start towards that goal. Ratings of #59/#75 are big cause for concern,
as are records of 0-3/1-4/5-6 because they only have 1 Top 50 win. With a non-conference SOS of 226 they will
need at least 9-9 and possibly 10-8 plus some damage in the ACC Tournament to
secure themselves a bid.
2. NC
State – the Pack are barely hanging onto consideration as they currently rate
#60/#77 and are 0-4 vs. Top 50 teams.
They remain on life support in this edition because they reside in the
ACC, and a mid-pack team in this conference has a shot at earning a bid because
they will have plenty of opportunities to earn big wins. But make no mistake, they are a lot closer to
being left off next edition than climbing.
3. Clemson
– like NC State, Clemson is possibly the last team included on life support in
any conference this edition. Ratings of
#79/#58 show a lot of work remains, and a non-conference SOS of #293 is
terrible. Clemson needs at least 10-8 in
conference play which would be a 6-5 close from where they stand today; highly
unlikely and the Tigers may be left off our next edition. But they could make a decent point by taking
down Florida State in Tallahassee on Saturday.
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big 12: Kansas
Looking good: Oklahoma, Oklahoma
State, Iowa State, Texas
Need
wins:
1. Kansas State – the Wildcats are a lot closer
to Looking Good versus Life Support, but still need to pick up some wins for me
to feel secure including them in the field.
They currently stand at #35/#40 in the ratings which is within at-large
territory, and they stand at 4-3 vs Top 50 teams – extremely strong. Expect K-State to earn themselves a bid, and
probably slide up to the Looking Good category in the next few weeks.
Life Support:
1. Baylor
– the Bears have really fallen apart losing 6 of their last 7 following a 10-1
start. With a mark of 1-6 in conference
play they really are in a ton of trouble as they likely need to finish 11-7
minimum to have a shot at an at-large – that means a close of 10-1, very
unlikely. With their next 3 coming
against the top 3 teams in the conference, including two on the road, this is
likely the last time Baylor is included in bracketology this season barring winning
the Big 12 Tournament.
Big East: Villanova
Looking good: Creighton, Xavier
Need
wins:
1. Providence – after starting 0-2 in Big
East play the Friars had reeled off 5 straight wins before losing at Marquette
this week leaving them at 15-6/5-3. In
the new Big East’s round robin format they will likely need at least an 11-7
mark in conference play (probably 12-6) because of a non-conference SOS of
#182. Ratings of #45/#56 are borderline
for an at-large, but the Friars have to keep winning games to secure their bid.
Big Sky: Northern
Colorado
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Michigan
State
Looking good: Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio
State, Iowa
Need
wins:
1. Minnesota – the Gophers have the
ratings to be considering a near lock for an at-large berth checking in at
#24/#36. Their issue is Top 25 wins
compared to the rest of their conference as they are 1-3, but have moved up to
4-4 vs. Top 50 opponents. They will
likely get a bid if they can go .500 in conference play; but we have seen
Minnesota play bad down the stretch the last few years, so they will remain in
the Need Wins category for the near future.
Life Support:
1. Indiana
– the Hoosiers are barely hanging onto any chance they have at earning an
at-large, but as mentioned in the start of this article I would rather include
too many teams versus adding a “new” team in the coming weeks. Indiana is just #69/#62 in the ratings, along
with 3-5 in conference play. They are
also just 1-4 vs. Top 50 opponents, and 4-7 vs. Top 100. They are likely to be cut in the next two
weeks without a very strong performance in upcoming action.
2. Illinois
– the Illini started their season very promising at 13-2, but have since lost 6
straight games putting them clearly on the bubble. Like Indiana they have struggled vs. the better
teams posting records of 0-2/1-4/3-7, and have subpar ratings of #61/#67. They must reverse this tailspin immediately
or it will be a disappointing campaign as they were looking to build off last
year’s Round of 32 appearance.
Big West: UC-Santa
Barbara
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: Southern
Mississippi
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Manhattan
MAC: Toledo
MEAC: North
Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Mountain West: San
Diego State
Need
wins:
1. New Mexico – the Lobos are close to the
Looking Good category but still have some work to do in my eyes. Their ratings are good at #31/#44, but are
not in the lock category. Their records
really concern me checking in at 1-2/1-2/4-3; that is just 3 games vs. Top 50
opponents thus far, which will likely slide to 4 after they face San Diego
State again. Working in their favor is a
non-conference SOS of #17 and a 7-1 mark in the MWC. Expect the Lobos to earn a bid when all is
said and done, but more work is ahead of them.
Life Support:
1. Boise
State – the Broncos ratings are clearly on the bubble sitting at #54/#49. What is really concerning and the reason they
are sitting in Life Support versus Need Wins is their 0-5 record vs. Top 100
opponents. That simply will not get the
job done. They will have their chances,
but need to pick up at least 3 Top 100 wins to remain in consideration – their chances
of accomplishing that task would be enhanced if Wyoming, UNLV & Utah State
slide into the Top 100 from 101, 107 & 114 respectively as of today.
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac 12: Arizona
Looking good: UCLA
Need
wins:
1. Colorado – the Buffaloes have flat out
struggled a ton following the loss of All American candidate Spencer
Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie is out for the
season, and since his loss Colorado has lost 4 games and clearly has an uphill
battle in a competitive Pac 12 to earn a bid.
Their ratings and records to this point do not hold much value because
they will be judged on their performance without their star guard, so right now
we are in a holding pattern for their chances.
Saturday versus Utah will be a big game coming in Boulder.
2. Arizona State – ASU has a better record
at 16-5 than any of the Need Wins teams but have a poor non-conference SOS that
checks in at #219. ASU has ratings of #40/#35,
which are very strong, and have records of 1-3/1-3/3-5, similar to many of their
counterparts in the Pac 12. They
currently have zero wins vs. likely tourney teams (unless you count Cal in that
group), and have lost big to the likely tourney teams they have faced this
season Creighton, UCLA and Arizona. The
Sun Devils have the numbers currently to be in the mix, and like seemingly
every season the Pac 12 is the toughest conference to decipher between the
bubble teams. Let’s see how the next few
weeks play out.
3. Stanford – ratings of #50/#41 have the
Cardinal on the bubble, as does their current 4-4 mark in conference play. Stanford does have records of 0-4/2-5/4-6
which isn’t very impressive and needs improvement – a big reason they are
listed last in the Need Wins category of Pac 12 teams. They close their season with 4 of 6 at home,
and may need a strong finish to get firmly in the mix. Uphill battle for certain, as they let
Thursday’s chance for a big home win slip through their hands losing to Arizona.
4. California – before dropping both games
on their LA trip last week Cal was one of the hottest teams in the country
winning 6 straight and 8 of 9, sliding into position to earn an NCAA Tournament
berth. Cal’s ratings of #52/#54 have
them on the bubble, as do records of 0-3/2-4/4-6. A non-conference SOS of #142 won’t help, but
a few bigger wins will – the door is open, but they must stop this skid and
have a great chance to enhance their resume when Arizona comes calling to
Berkeley on Saturday evening.
5. Oregon – the Ducks started off the
season very hot at 13-0 but now sits at 14-6 after losing 6 of 7 once conference
play began. Oregon is 5-5 vs. Top 100
opponents which isn’t spectacular, and ratings of #47/#26 are within range to
earn a berth; however, a 2-6 mark in conference play needs to really turnaround
as they will need to at least reach .500 to remain in the conversation. Considering 5 of their first 8 conference
games came on the road I like the chances of the Ducks to turn things around,
and get back in the at-large mix. But
Thursday’s home loss to UCLA could turn out to be a critical blow to their
chances.
Patriot: Boston
University
SEC: Florida
Looking good: Kentucky
Need
wins:
1. Missouri – the Tigers are extremely
close to moving up to Looking Good as their ratings are superb at #41/#32. However, they are just 4-3 in conference
play, and have only faced one Top 50 team all season – a game they won (that
will change Saturday when Kentucky comes calling to Columbia). With a non-conference SOS of #134 combined
with the previous fact they still have to prove they can play with other good
teams, such as Florida, Kentucky and other SEC bubble boys there is still work
to do. However, it’s highly likely
Missouri makes the field, but where their seeded will be impacted by their
games against better teams.
2. LSU – the Tigers rate #55/#48, firmly
on the bubble range. A big win over
Kentucky this week helps their case enormously as they are now 1-1/2-3/5-5. The eye test tells me this is an NCAA Tournament
team, but their performances are highly variant, not a good sign. The Tigers next outing comes Saturday when
they Arkansas - are they mature enough to play well at home following a big win
over Kentucky? That game will tell a
huge story for this LSU team.
Life Support:
1. Tennessee – the Vols have bubble ratings
of #46/#45 just like the other SEC bubble teams. If you haven’t caught on yet all these SEC
teams have similar resumes, and it will be interesting to see how this plays
out, and how many spots the conference gets.
Two teams (UK/UF) are locks, but outside that, will they earn 3 or 4
spots? I cannot see it going above 4,
meaning Tennessee has a ton of work to do and has to win the key head to head
matchups against others listed here.
2. Ole
Miss – the Rebels have bubble ratings of #56/#59, and have generally played
well since G Marshall Henderson re-joined the lineup. However, their records are a concern at just 0-0/0-3/4-5!
They have zero Top 50 wins and just four Top 100 wins – dangerous territory
for an SEC team. Similar to Missouri
above many of these SEC bubble teams’ fate will be determined by who can beat
Florida and/or Kentucky, and the bubble teams’ round robins.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: North
Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia
State
West Coast: Gonzaga
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Need wins:
1. BYU – the Cougars are #49/#52 right
behind St. Mary’s following the Gaels loss to San Diego this week; but they have
faced the 4th toughest non-conference SOS, which will likely help
their cause should their resume be compared to someone else’s come Selection
Sunday. Records of 0-3/2-5/3-5 set them slightly
behind the Gaels with that metric, and because of that the Cougars will be
battling the Gaels down the stretch for a possible second bid for the WCC.
2. St.
Mary’s – this isn’t a typical St. Mary’s squad but they are still a strong 15-6
vs. a non-conference SOS of #46. Their
ratings are #53/#55 dropped a good amount following their loss at San Diego
this week and their records are 0-0/1-1/5-1 (better than Gonzaga’s). There is little question the WCC is a two bid
league unless BYU or St. Mary’s was to finish well behind the other in most
metrics but went on to win the WCC Tournament – so games between these three
teams listed here will be critical.
WAC: New Mexico
State
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
(up from 31 due to new American Athletic Conference)
LOOKING GOOD: 20
Currently I project 52
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 14
LIFE SUPPORT: 14
That leaves 28 teams that are in the mix for 16 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves – I only see two possibilities of this happening
in the MVC with Wichita State & the WCC with Gonzaga. There could also be upsets in bigger
conference tournaments (which are rarer) where a team that has no chance at
earning a bid wins the tournament such as if St. John’s was to win the Big East
Tournament.
Multiple bid
conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68
bids):
P12 (7)
ACC (6)
B12 (6)
B10 (6)
SEC (5)
A10 (4)
AAC (4)
BE (4)
MWC (2)
WCC (2)
FIRST FIVE OUT
(listed in no particular order):
SMU
Boise State
Ole Miss
Richmond
St. Mary’s
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