|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
||||||
|
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
39
|
4
|
45
|
6
|
84
|
1
|
||
|
Portland
|
28
|
1
|
66
|
17
|
94
|
2
|
||
|
Oklahoma
City
|
48
|
9
|
48
|
8
|
96
|
3
|
||
|
Houston
|
40
|
5
|
57
|
12
|
97
|
4
|
||
|
Toronto
|
44
|
7
|
54
|
11
|
98
|
5
|
||
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
34
|
2
|
64
|
16
|
98
|
5
|
||
|
Indiana
|
70
|
18
|
29
|
1
|
99
|
7
|
||
|
San
Antonio
|
67
|
17
|
37
|
3
|
104
|
8
|
||
|
Memphis
|
60
|
13
|
49
|
10
|
109
|
9
|
||
|
Chicago
|
78
|
25
|
32
|
2
|
110
|
10
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
71
|
19
|
41
|
4
|
112
|
11
|
||
|
Golden
State
|
73
|
21
|
43
|
5
|
116
|
12
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
46
|
8
|
72
|
20
|
118
|
13
|
||
|
Denver
|
49
|
11
|
70
|
19
|
119
|
14
|
||
|
Washington
|
75
|
24
|
45
|
6
|
120
|
15
|
||
|
Detroit
|
57
|
12
|
63
|
15
|
120
|
15
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
74
|
23
|
48
|
8
|
122
|
17
|
||
|
New
Orleans
|
41
|
6
|
81
|
26
|
122
|
17
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
38
|
3
|
86
|
29
|
124
|
19
|
||
|
Dallas
|
48
|
9
|
80
|
24
|
128
|
20
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
71
|
19
|
59
|
13
|
130
|
21
|
||
|
Miami
|
66
|
16
|
69
|
18
|
135
|
22
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
61
|
14
|
74
|
22
|
135
|
22
|
||
|
New
York
|
65
|
15
|
72
|
20
|
137
|
24
|
||
|
Orlando
|
86
|
28
|
59
|
13
|
145
|
25
|
||
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
73
|
21
|
80
|
24
|
153
|
26
|
||
|
Boston
|
84
|
27
|
77
|
23
|
161
|
27
|
||
|
Utah
|
81
|
26
|
93
|
30
|
174
|
28
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
97
|
30
|
82
|
27
|
179
|
29
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
96
|
29
|
85
|
28
|
181
|
30
|
||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points.
Biggest movers
over last MONTH since last publication as measured by Overall Performance
Ranking: DET +7, PHO +5, DAL +4, CHI +3, HOU +3
MIA (9), SAC (8), IND (5), DEN (4)
Biggest movers since
FIRST publication on 12/19/14 as measured by Overall Performance Ranking:
MEM +10, PHO +7, CHI +6, GS +6, POR +5, HOU +5, CLE +5, LAC
+3
IND (6), MIA (6), NO (6), ATL (5), SAC (5), CHA (4), DEN (4)
As we can see from the numbers below over about the last 2
months since first publication of these performance ratings the Grizzlies &
Suns are playing the best ball, while surprisingly the Pacers & Heat are
tied with the Pelicans in playing the worst ball.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
115.5
|
113.0
|
|
Portland
|
115.3
|
111.8
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
115.5
|
111.5
|
|
Houston
|
114.9
|
111.4
|
|
Toronto
|
113.8
|
111.3
|
|
L.A. Clippers
|
115.3
|
111.3
|
|
Indiana
|
115.6
|
111.1
|
|
San Antonio
|
113.5
|
110.5
|
|
Memphis
|
111.9
|
109.9
|
|
Chicago
|
112.3
|
109.8
|
|
Charlotte
|
111.5
|
109.5
|
|
Golden State
|
112.0
|
109.0
|
|
Phoenix
|
111.8
|
108.8
|
|
Denver
|
111.2
|
108.7
|
|
Washington
|
111.0
|
108.5
|
|
Detroit
|
110.5
|
108.5
|
|
Atlanta
|
111.3
|
108.3
|
|
New Orleans
|
110.8
|
108.3
|
|
Sacramento
|
110.1
|
108.1
|
|
Dallas
|
110.6
|
107.6
|
|
Cleveland
|
109.3
|
107.3
|
|
Miami
|
110.7
|
106.7
|
|
Brooklyn
|
109.2
|
106.7
|
|
New York
|
108.4
|
106.4
|
|
Orlando
|
107.5
|
105.5
|
|
L.A. Lakers
|
106.5
|
104.5
|
|
Boston
|
105.5
|
103.5
|
|
Utah
|
103.9
|
101.9
|
|
Philadelphia
|
103.2
|
101.2
|
|
Milwaukee
|
103.0
|
101.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Let’s
examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can
identify some teams to target – the games that show a big variance and have
been suggested as “value plays” have an excellent record – go ahead and look
back at these NBA entries:
IND -7 den: currently Pacers are -11 so we have some value
on Nuggets here. Add in fact Indiana
played last night in Orlando, but offset that some because they lost that game
late, and it still appears there is value on the Nuggets here.
TOR -5.5 no: currently Raptors are -7 so right on target
DET pk sa: currently Spurs are -3. That suggests small value on Pistons, but
considering they just fired their coach last night I would recommend laying off
this one.
bos -0.5 MIL: currently Celtics are -1 so right on target
MIN -4 hou: currently Rockets are -5 so we have a ton of
value on the home barking dog Wolves here.
Even with Love banged up, and the fact the Wolves may be over-rated
according to my metrics, a nine point variance is massive and a play on the
Wolves is suggested here.
GS -11 phi: currently Warriors are -15 so we have a small
value play on the Sixers here.
Considering their awful effort last night that play seems to have some
merit.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:
|
Current Wins
|
ATS Wins
|
Projected Wins
|
||||||
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|||
|
Minnesota
|
24
|
16
|
26
|
11
|
47.04
|
11
|
||
|
Portland
|
36
|
4
|
28
|
7
|
44.19
|
14
|
||
|
Oklahoma City
|
41
|
1
|
31
|
2
|
55.44
|
4
|
||
|
Houston
|
34
|
7
|
26
|
11
|
48.56
|
10
|
||
|
Toronto
|
26
|
12
|
30
|
5
|
50.05
|
9
|
||
|
L.A. Clippers
|
36
|
4
|
31
|
2
|
56.92
|
2
|
||
|
Indiana
|
39
|
2
|
31
|
2
|
56.88
|
3
|
||
|
San Antonio
|
37
|
3
|
24
|
15
|
54.62
|
5
|
||
|
Memphis
|
27
|
11
|
23
|
17
|
44.91
|
12
|
||
|
Chicago
|
25
|
13
|
23
|
17
|
35.85
|
22
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
22
|
19
|
28
|
7
|
36.79
|
21
|
||
|
Golden State
|
30
|
9
|
22
|
22
|
51.27
|
7
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
30
|
9
|
33
|
1
|
50.51
|
8
|
||
|
Denver
|
24
|
16
|
22
|
22
|
39.39
|
19
|
||
|
Washington
|
25
|
13
|
27
|
9
|
44.05
|
15
|
||
|
Detroit
|
21
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
43.55
|
16
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
25
|
13
|
26
|
11
|
41.91
|
17
|
||
|
New Orleans
|
22
|
19
|
23
|
17
|
41.11
|
18
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
17
|
26
|
23
|
17
|
32.77
|
23
|
||
|
Dallas
|
31
|
8
|
30
|
5
|
51.98
|
6
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
18
|
23
|
21
|
26
|
28.82
|
25
|
||
|
Miami
|
35
|
6
|
21
|
26
|
57.48
|
1
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
23
|
18
|
24
|
15
|
37.90
|
20
|
||
|
New York
|
20
|
22
|
21
|
26
|
44.66
|
13
|
||
|
Orlando
|
16
|
28
|
23
|
17
|
26.25
|
26
|
||
|
L.A. Lakers
|
18
|
23
|
27
|
9
|
22.92
|
27
|
||
|
Boston
|
18
|
23
|
25
|
14
|
28.87
|
24
|
||
|
Utah
|
17
|
26
|
22
|
22
|
20.06
|
29
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
15
|
29
|
20
|
29
|
20.10
|
28
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
9
|
30
|
19
|
30
|
17.61
|
30
|
||
Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire
matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance
Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top seven teams in performance
are all within the top 11 of ATS winners in the NBA.
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 02/09 the
playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 LA Clippers 57-25
#2 Oklahoma City 55-27
#3 San Antonio 55-27
#4 Dallas 52-30
#5 Golden State 51-31
#6 Phoenix 51-31
#7 Houston 49-33
#8 Minnesota 47-35
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 57-25
#2 Indiana 57-25
#3 Toronto 50-32
#4 New York 45-37
#5 Washington 44-38
#6 Detroit 44-38
#7 Atlanta 42-40
#8 Brooklyn 38-44
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