Thursday, February 7, 2013
NFL 2012 Season Review: Turnover Margin Analysis Part I Article posted July 2, 2012
The second installment in our series of reviewing all of last spring & summer’s statistical projections for the 2012 season will review Turnover Margin (TOM) Part I – in this article I looked at TOM & its impact on points margin by team. The main basis of the calculations in this analysis involve applying 4 points per turnover, adjusting a team’s points margin for a given season by their TO mark, and fitting that new margin into a standard matrix that has been developed and is widely recognized that slots team’s records dependent on their points margin.
Let’s start this entry by reviewing the projections I made in the summer of 2011 before that NFL season (which is covered in the original article linked above). Heading into that season I projected seven teams to have less wins in 2011 vs. 2010 – and of those seven 6 dropped in wins, while one stayed the same (BAL remained at 12 wins in both seasons). On the flip side I projected six teams to increase their wins from 2010 to 2011 – and of those six 4 improved, one stayed the same (OAK went 8-8 in both seasons) & one went the opposite way (SD dropped from 9 to 8 wins). To summarize my projections on the 2011 season, there were 13 teams slotted to move one way or another strictly based on this TOM analysis – and of the 13 ten moved the way we projected, 2 stayed even, and only 1 moved opposite.
Moving on to last summer, I performed this same analysis and here were the teams that stood out to move either up or down as far as wins go (I only include teams that were projected to move either way by 2gms; 1gm variances are to small & could be based on additional factors not privy to this analysis):
Teams likely to decline in wins (I will list them in order of the biggest variance between their actual wins and their projected wins when stripping out the impact of turnovers; I will also go into detail about the calculation and process for GB – the other teams I will just list the metrics themselves & results):
Summary of teams projected to fall in wins from 2011 to 2012: there were 7 teams that fit the original premise, but DEN was removed based on the high impact signing of QB Peyton Manning (only a HOF type player or significant upgrade or downgrade at the QB position would cause me to remove a team from these analysis – Manning fits both criteria). That left six teams (GB, KC, SF, NE, NYG, OAK) that this analysis projected would drop in wins from 2011. The results were once again right on target, with not one team moving the opposite way of the projection – the only team that remained static were NYG, who stayed at 9 wins on the season.
The second half of this analysis shows teams I projected to increase their wins from 2011 to 2012 based on this TOM analysis:
Summary of teams projected to increase their wins from 2011 to 2012: this analysis projected 6 teams to improve their wins vs. 2011 – of those 6 four were able to improve (IND, MIN, WAS, MIA), some by leaps & bounds including a trio of playoff teams (IND, MIN, WAS)! There were two teams however that continued their slide down – PHI, who was the biggest surprise in a bad way this past NFL season, and SD who for the 2nd year in a row showed up as a team that should increase their wins YOY only to instead fall by 1 win each time.
Combining the two groupings of teams from this analysis there were 12 teams projected to slide one way or another: 9 teams moved the way this analysis projected, 1 team stayed flat YOY (NYG), and 2 teams moved the opposite direction (PHI & SD).
Once again we have posted another analysis that proved to be right on target – and extremely useful information for your handicapping process. Stay tuned as we move through the spring and summer for this same analysis posted for the upcoming 2013 campaign; along with additional forward looking projections and backward looking grading on many other stats we utilize for a high degree of effectiveness.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: firstname.lastname@example.org
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
Posted by The SportsBoss at 11:04 AM