UMass @ St Bonaventure: obviously a MASSIVE game for the Minutemen here. First meeting of the season. Hate saying must win on 2/20 but it’s just about that for UMass. UMass has played very well in almost every conference game outside that VCU two games ago - either way I think 3 is too big, grab a hook to +3.5 as this feels like a 3pt or less game either way.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: keep eye on this one as this is a sandwich game for the Sooners for sure. Coming off tough OT win @ rival Oklahoma State, and face Baylor at home next in a huge bubble game. OU should get the win but laying 10 may be too steep - the home/away splits are not that of a 10pt line, but that’s just one angle to examine.
Ole Miss @ South Carolina: the Rebels are REALLY struggling since peaking in January. Over their L10 they are just 6-4, 2-4 L6, and their wins are over the slop of the SEC. SCarolina also stinks, they stink worse for sure, but the Rebels haven’t won in Columbia for quite some time, and twice were favored only to lose SU. Seems like 6 is too much but this is risky business either way with these teams.
Providence @ Syracuse: first meeting @ DDC was only a 6pt Orange win. L5 games split are almost identical. PC has historically not played great in the Dome, and has only covered 3 of L10 vs. Orange, two of those at home. Even with a 12pt # here seems tough to make a case for either side.
Minnesota @ Ohio State: another day, another key Big Ten game. Both teams have a heightened level of concern based on their recent play and results - especially Minny as once again they looked legit in Nov & Dec, but struggled come mid-January. The Gophers are just 3-7 L10 with their only wins over Wisconsin in OT at home, then a duo of Nebraska & Iowa at home, Iowa by 3. Yikes. Scoring is again their big issue. OSU's situation has worsened significantly over the last two weeks going just 1-3 but they have time to right the ship, and are a sure-fire tourney team. Tough one to gauge again here, # is 6.5 - I would actually lean towards Minnesota finally showing well in a bigger game, but it’s hard to back that with cash right now...
UTEP @ SMississippi: here is where you may have the dreaded “look-ahead” situation. UTEP is very talented, have a lot of nice pieces, and SM will definitely be looking ahead to this weekend's game versus Memphis. These two schools haven’t played this season, the public is all over the Golden Eagles - since 11/28 the Miners have lost exactly 1 game by more than 6, 2 outings ago @ Houston. I like UTEP in this spot.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: if UK is gonna bounce back and show the nation how good they are no better spot than at home vs. Vandy. UK laying 11; right now I am laying off their games until I get a feel for how they will play, good or bad, without Noel. But obviously a loss here tonight may be a death blow to their tourney chances.
Air Force @ Boise State: HUGE MWC game, I have these teams as the last two on the "Life Support" line for MWC. This is almost an elimination game... # is kinda big sitting at 7. AF won first meeting in a shootout (where did this game come from? Wow) 91-80 at home. The teams split last year in only other meetings with both winning on opponent’s floor. Tough one to handicap.
Iowa State @ Baylor: this is probably the biggest game of the night (with MIN/OSU) as both teams are clearly on the bubble - I think both will be on the bubble right until the selections come out. Baylor laying 4.5 suggests these two teams are just about even - ISU won first matchup by 8 in Ames, but BU hit two more shots and general box score analysis features an upside to Baylor from that one. Home team dominates this series winning and covering 11 of 12 - with Baylor coming off a loss @ Kansas State where they played terribly I would lean towards Baylor here, but not sure if it’s enough to make em a client level play for me.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin has dominated the series winning 9 of L10, and although NW covered 4 of the 10, 3 of those 4 were on road as huge dogs. Most of Wisky's results are "in line" with their opponent and where game was played - not many outliers. Stats are closer than you may think but NW has not been a good team this season, a lot of which is driven by the fact they have a lot of injnured bodies. I typically remove games from my handicapping card when multiple guys are listed on the IR right off the bat. So I am laying off, but would back Wisconsin if forced to make a choice.
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: Gallagher Iba is one of my top 3 college gyms in the country, before I die I really want to get out there for a big game - and tonight's game doesn’t get any bigger from their perspective. Line is a pick - keep in mind OSU won first game @ Fog Allen. Kansas has NOT been good on road all conference season - lost by 6 @ OU, lost by 7 @ TCU, @ WVU won by only 5 non cover, won by 4 @ KST covering by 0.5, and won by 5 @ Texas non cover. But all those were favorites...tonight not the case. Stats favor KU; remember I have been BIG on Oklahoma State since before the season as the 2nd best team in B12.
Houston @ Memphis: first meeting of year. Houston has not lost by 20 all season, and heads into this one playing some of their best ball of the season - which isn’t very good ball, but it’s some of their best. Houston's defense is a concern - but two areas I focus on when potentially taking huge dogs to cover against very good teams are FT% and REB margin. Houston shoots over 71% as a team, which is good. Houston is + reb on season, another positive. No chance the Cougars win, but they may & probably will cover - I am laying off cause I only like to play games where I think my underdog can win SU, but watch out for the old backdoor tonight.
Washington State @ Arizona State: big game for ASU. Devils won first meeting @ WSU but by only 4, and were outrebounded. WSU has been subpar on road in P12 play losing by 11, 13, 7, 4, and 14, with a 3pt win @ Oregon State. Ladd is OUT for the Cougars tonight and is one of their better players. All stats favor ASU - I do not like laying this many pts with ASU, but I am buying them as a good team and think they will get the job done tonight defensively. ASU will win something like 66-48.
Colorado State @ UNLV: this is a key game for the Rebels, and because they typically own CSU, lost to them already this season, have the big edge in H/A splits, and the Rams have won 7 straight I am backing UNLV tonight.
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga: real tough to fade GU in the Kennel which is my typical line of thinking when teams are still undefeated at this point in the conference season. GU won first matchup by 7, but shots made were just about even, and SC had the rebounding edge. The Broncos have dominated the league versus everyone besides the 3 good teams (Gonzaga, St Marys, BYU) – against them they have gone 0-4 (7-1 vs. everyone else). Even though Zaga enters undefeated no way I back the Broncos to cover this # - not on it either way.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech: keep eye on this one as this is a sandwich game for the Sooners for sure. Coming off tough OT win @ rival Oklahoma State, and face Baylor at home next in a huge bubble game. OU should get the win but laying 10 may be too steep - the home/away splits are not that of a 10pt line, but that’s just one angle to examine.
Ole Miss @ South Carolina: the Rebels are REALLY struggling since peaking in January. Over their L10 they are just 6-4, 2-4 L6, and their wins are over the slop of the SEC. SCarolina also stinks, they stink worse for sure, but the Rebels haven’t won in Columbia for quite some time, and twice were favored only to lose SU. Seems like 6 is too much but this is risky business either way with these teams.
Providence @ Syracuse: first meeting @ DDC was only a 6pt Orange win. L5 games split are almost identical. PC has historically not played great in the Dome, and has only covered 3 of L10 vs. Orange, two of those at home. Even with a 12pt # here seems tough to make a case for either side.
Minnesota @ Ohio State: another day, another key Big Ten game. Both teams have a heightened level of concern based on their recent play and results - especially Minny as once again they looked legit in Nov & Dec, but struggled come mid-January. The Gophers are just 3-7 L10 with their only wins over Wisconsin in OT at home, then a duo of Nebraska & Iowa at home, Iowa by 3. Yikes. Scoring is again their big issue. OSU's situation has worsened significantly over the last two weeks going just 1-3 but they have time to right the ship, and are a sure-fire tourney team. Tough one to gauge again here, # is 6.5 - I would actually lean towards Minnesota finally showing well in a bigger game, but it’s hard to back that with cash right now...
UTEP @ SMississippi: here is where you may have the dreaded “look-ahead” situation. UTEP is very talented, have a lot of nice pieces, and SM will definitely be looking ahead to this weekend's game versus Memphis. These two schools haven’t played this season, the public is all over the Golden Eagles - since 11/28 the Miners have lost exactly 1 game by more than 6, 2 outings ago @ Houston. I like UTEP in this spot.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: if UK is gonna bounce back and show the nation how good they are no better spot than at home vs. Vandy. UK laying 11; right now I am laying off their games until I get a feel for how they will play, good or bad, without Noel. But obviously a loss here tonight may be a death blow to their tourney chances.
Air Force @ Boise State: HUGE MWC game, I have these teams as the last two on the "Life Support" line for MWC. This is almost an elimination game... # is kinda big sitting at 7. AF won first meeting in a shootout (where did this game come from? Wow) 91-80 at home. The teams split last year in only other meetings with both winning on opponent’s floor. Tough one to handicap.
Iowa State @ Baylor: this is probably the biggest game of the night (with MIN/OSU) as both teams are clearly on the bubble - I think both will be on the bubble right until the selections come out. Baylor laying 4.5 suggests these two teams are just about even - ISU won first matchup by 8 in Ames, but BU hit two more shots and general box score analysis features an upside to Baylor from that one. Home team dominates this series winning and covering 11 of 12 - with Baylor coming off a loss @ Kansas State where they played terribly I would lean towards Baylor here, but not sure if it’s enough to make em a client level play for me.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Wisconsin has dominated the series winning 9 of L10, and although NW covered 4 of the 10, 3 of those 4 were on road as huge dogs. Most of Wisky's results are "in line" with their opponent and where game was played - not many outliers. Stats are closer than you may think but NW has not been a good team this season, a lot of which is driven by the fact they have a lot of injnured bodies. I typically remove games from my handicapping card when multiple guys are listed on the IR right off the bat. So I am laying off, but would back Wisconsin if forced to make a choice.
Kansas @ Oklahoma State: Gallagher Iba is one of my top 3 college gyms in the country, before I die I really want to get out there for a big game - and tonight's game doesn’t get any bigger from their perspective. Line is a pick - keep in mind OSU won first game @ Fog Allen. Kansas has NOT been good on road all conference season - lost by 6 @ OU, lost by 7 @ TCU, @ WVU won by only 5 non cover, won by 4 @ KST covering by 0.5, and won by 5 @ Texas non cover. But all those were favorites...tonight not the case. Stats favor KU; remember I have been BIG on Oklahoma State since before the season as the 2nd best team in B12.
Houston @ Memphis: first meeting of year. Houston has not lost by 20 all season, and heads into this one playing some of their best ball of the season - which isn’t very good ball, but it’s some of their best. Houston's defense is a concern - but two areas I focus on when potentially taking huge dogs to cover against very good teams are FT% and REB margin. Houston shoots over 71% as a team, which is good. Houston is + reb on season, another positive. No chance the Cougars win, but they may & probably will cover - I am laying off cause I only like to play games where I think my underdog can win SU, but watch out for the old backdoor tonight.
Washington State @ Arizona State: big game for ASU. Devils won first meeting @ WSU but by only 4, and were outrebounded. WSU has been subpar on road in P12 play losing by 11, 13, 7, 4, and 14, with a 3pt win @ Oregon State. Ladd is OUT for the Cougars tonight and is one of their better players. All stats favor ASU - I do not like laying this many pts with ASU, but I am buying them as a good team and think they will get the job done tonight defensively. ASU will win something like 66-48.
Colorado State @ UNLV: this is a key game for the Rebels, and because they typically own CSU, lost to them already this season, have the big edge in H/A splits, and the Rams have won 7 straight I am backing UNLV tonight.
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga: real tough to fade GU in the Kennel which is my typical line of thinking when teams are still undefeated at this point in the conference season. GU won first matchup by 7, but shots made were just about even, and SC had the rebounding edge. The Broncos have dominated the league versus everyone besides the 3 good teams (Gonzaga, St Marys, BYU) – against them they have gone 0-4 (7-1 vs. everyone else). Even though Zaga enters undefeated no way I back the Broncos to cover this # - not on it either way.
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