Monday, February 18, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament- Projected Field Updated Thru 2/17

Last week I added a 2nd article showing how I project the actual field to look – including all 68 teams.  This analysis is perhaps of more use at this point in the season as it includes all teams that are likely to earn bids, those on the bubble, and those who can ill afford even a few more losses.  I will do my best to update the field analysis later this week, but for now, here is where things currently stand through Sunday, February 18:
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Ten: Butler
                Looking good: VCU
                Need wins: St. Louis, Temple, LaSalle
                Life support: Charlotte, UMass
Summary: the only change to this week’s A10 structure is Charlotte & UMass flip-flopping spots – UMass is now the final team under consideration to earn a bid from this conference.  The Minutemen suffered a pair of losses last week versus team’s under consideration (@VCU, Temple), the latter really dealing a serious blow to their chances.  Based on their remaining schedule they probably need to win out to remain alive – possible since only 1 of 5 remaining games is against conference foes listed here – keep an eye on @ Butler 3/7.  The “Need Wins” category hasn’t seen movement, neither of the three has moved to “Looking Good”, but none have moved to “Life Support” either.
ACC: Miami, Fla
                Looking good: Duke, NC State
                Need wins: North Carolina
Life support: Maryland, Virginia
Summary: like to A10 the only change here was the order of the pair of “Life Support” teams with Maryland passing Virginia based on their huge home win over Duke Saturday.  Despite both teams sitting at 18-7 their RPI marks of #63/#77 would certainly have both on the outside looking in if today were Selection Sunday.  But we know that isn’t the case – so both teams need to accumulate a lot of wins down the stretch to get into serious consideration.  UNC is currently in my projected field, and has a chance to solidify that spot in the eyes on the committee with games remaining vs. NC State, Maryland & Duke.
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12: Kansas
                Looking good: Kansas State, Oklahoma State
                Need wins: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor
                Summary: no changes to the Big 12 this week as Kansas remains the cream of the crop, while both KSU & OSU are basically locks to dance.  Oklahoma is almost on the “Looking Good” line, but a tough loss in Stillwater keeps them down a notch this week.  Iowa State & Baylor are going to be bubble teams when Selection Sunday rolls around, and both have their strengths and weaknesses.  ISU is just 2-5 vs. Top 50 RPI and their only win of note is Kansas State at home (they also have a win over Oklahoma at home).  Losses to Texas & Texas Tech are killers right now as if they had those two in the win column they would be sitting a whole lot nicer.  Baylor is 2-7 vs. Top 50 RPI and their only win of note is over Oklahoma State at home (they also beat Kentucky on December 1).  Both need to at least reach 11-7 in the Big 12 – at the very least – to be under serious consideration, which means 4-2 closes for both clubs.
Big East: Louisville
                Looking good: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
                Need Wins: Villanova
                Life Support: St. Johns
                Summary: there was some shifting for the 2nd straight week in the “Looking Good” order, but all six teams remain in that category, close to a lock for a bid.  Villanova has moved up to the “Need Wins” category following their win @ UConn Saturday – which was the big road win the Cats resume was missing.  Both Nova & SJU has RPI’s in the mid-50s, which are borderline marks for at-large teams – boosting those into the 40s would do both well.  The goal for each team has to be reaching 10-8 in conference play, and picking up an opening round BET win – in most years that is enough to earn a bid, and this season in a down bubble you would have to think that would be sufficient once again.
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Charleston Southern (replaced last week’s projected conference winner UNC-Asheville)
Big Ten: Indiana
                Looking good: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State
                Need wins: Minnesota, Illinois
                Summary: some significant movement this week in the Big Ten as MSU & Michigan switched spots following the Spartans hammering of the Wolverines early last week, while Wisconsin jumped to the “Looking Good” line ahead of Ohio State following that pummeling yesterday in Madison, while Minnesota has dropped back a level to the first “Need Wins” teams in the conference.  All seven teams listed here have an RPI in the Top 28 – which is territory that almost always earns an at-large bid.  The only potential issue these teams could face is not reaching .500 in conference play – Minnesota & Illinois need to finish 3-2 for 9-9 in B10 play.  Come Selection Sunday I believe all 7 will earn bids, with Illinois potentially playing in the new “first round” of action Tuesday/Wednesday.
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Memphis
                Need Wins: Southern Mississippi
                Summary: UCF was removed from consideration following a 0-2 week, including a killer OT loss @ UTEP Saturday.  Two teams remain, and Southern Mississippi has a lot of work to do for an at-large spot.  Although they are 18-6 with an RPI #40 they are 0-3 vs. Top 50 RPI, and 1-6 vs. Top 100 RPI, the only win coming against Denver on November 27.  Considering the weakness of CUSA, and their OOC performance, I feel they at least need to run the table including a win @ Memphis to earn consideration come Selection Sunday – hence why they were dropped to “Need Wins” this week.
Horizon: Detroit (replaced last week’s projected conference winner Valparaiso)
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Canisius
MAC: Akron
                If AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE ON LIFE SUPPORT to receive a bid, thus adding themselves to the pool of at-large teams.
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Creighton
                Looking good: Wichita State
                Life Support: Indiana State
                Summary: in just a few weeks the MVC has gone from its peak where it seemed 3 teams had a legitimate shot at dancing to where we could wind up seeing only one bid for the conference.  I am still leaning towards Creighton earning the auto-bid because of F Doug McDermott – who is a legitimate lottery type player in my opinion.  That would be the best case scenario for the MVC’s hopes of earning multiple bids because WSU probably has the best overall resume of the trio (they have a nice win over VCU earlier this season).  Indiana State lost a pair of road games last week to subpar teams which has them at best on “Life Support” right now as they are just 2-6 on the road in conference play – that will not cut it for at-large consideration.  With one more loss ISU will be removed from this analysis.
Mountain West: New Mexico
                Looking good: Colorado State, UNLV
                Need wins: San Diego State
                Life Support: Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming
                Summary: the only change here is Colorado State passing UNLV as the 2nd team from the MWC.  San Diego State did themselves no favors last week losing a pair of road games @ UNLV & Colorado State – they need to pick up wins and pick em up in a hurry or they will suffer and fall a notch next week.  Looking at their closing slate they have 3 almost certain wins at home, and two roadies left where 2-0 would help, 1-1 is a must (@ BSU, @ New Mexico).  The Aztecs do not want to be forced into having to advance to the MWC Final to earn their bid because this tournament from the first round on will be brutal.  For this edition too I will leave all three “Life Support” teams, but frankly Air Force & Wyoming are barely hanging on.  The reason I am keeping them for now is they both will have numerous chances to improve their resume as the conference has 3 Top 20 RPI, 4 Top 34 & 5 Top 42 RPI teams – plenty of chances to pick up big wins.  Wyoming in particular is barely hanging on as they have struggled mightily following the loss of G Luke Martinez – I would be surprised if they remained in consideration come next week’s edition since they face UNLV & San Diego State this week. 
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Belmont
                If BELMONT does not win their conference tournament but advances to the Championship Game they would still BE ALIVE IN LOOKING GOOD to receive a bid, thus adding themselves to the pool of at-large teams.
Pac 12: Arizona
                Need wins: UCLA, Colorado, Oregon
                Life Support: Arizona State, California
                Summary: the only changes this week were the removal of Washington & Stanford from any consideration moving forward.  Like last year the P12 remains a confusing conference – where seemingly any team can win on anyone’s home floor even on any given day – that generally means none of the teams are very good.  Arizona is the best of the bunch, and to me they have separated themselves by a considerable margin – but that does not mean I expect a successful run for the Cats in the tourney.  Because of that “considerable margin” I just mentioned I do not have any other P12 teams listed as “Looking Good” as in my opinion its more likely this trio loses a few games in a row versus going on a winning streak – and any extended losing streak by any of those teams would deal a serious blow to their chances.  Come Selection Sunday I expect 3 or 4 P12 teams to earn a berth – so a lot of work remains for all six schools.
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Florida
                Looking good: Missouri
                Need wins: Kentucky
Life Support: Ole Miss, Alabama
                Summary: the loss of Nerlins Noel dealt a serious blow to the chances the Wildcats have at returning to the dance to defend their title.  Quite frankly, outside Florida, no SEC team is a lock to be dancing – and that includes Missouri.  The main reason I have left the Tigers of Mizzou on the “Looking Good” line versus a level down is all the injuries they suffered earlier in conference play – the committee will judge this team with all their pieces at 100%, and based on that, I feel that Missouri will play well enough down the stretch to earn a bid – but they clearly still have A LOT of work to do.  Ole Miss & Alabama are both very unlikely to earn bids and have been moved down to the “Life Support” line because I don’t feel they will be able to compile enough wins down the stretch to get into the conversation again, and their RPI will suffer going forward because of a weak SEC.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
                If MTSU does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE IN NEED WINS to receive a bid, thus adding themselves to the pool of at-large teams.
West Coast: Gonzaga
                If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a bid away from the current at-large pool.            
Life Support: St.Mary’s, BYU
Summary: this week we slid St Mary’s down to “Life Support” following their home loss to Gonzaga.  This is not a typical St. Mary’s team of recent memory, and with a 0-2 mark vs. RPI Top 50, and just 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100, their chances may be null unless they can secure the conference’s automatic berth.  BYU remains for another week – they only had one game last week which they were able to win – but another loss may have them out of the analysis, and two more would certainly have them removed – which is likely to happen at some point.
WAC: Louisiana Tech
                If LA TECH does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE IN LIFE SUPPORT to receive a bid, thus adding themselves to the pool of at-large teams.


FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOOKING GOOD: 19 (-3 from last week)
Currently I project 50 of the 68 bids are earned.  That means there are 18 unsecured/open bids. 
NEED WINS: 16 (FLAT to last week)
LIFE SUPPORT: 15 (FLAT to last week)
That leaves 31 teams that are in the mix for 18 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.
This week we have 3 less teams “Looking Good”, which leaves the same # as last week of 31 seeking those final now 18 bids, up from 15 last week.  That means of the teams listed in this article 13 will not make the dance – and based on my comments throughout I have mentioned about ten teams that I feel will not be under consideration within a week or two – so really we are talking about 21 teams for 18 bids.  It will be a lot of fun down the stretch keeping an eye on the bubble teams – but also remember, once we see some conference tourney upsets that are likely to steal about 3-5 bids we could be working with approximately 21 teams seeking 14 bids.


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