Previously this month I wrote an article on what changes I
would make to the Bracket Busters format to add some value to the concept – it
basically involves adding bubble teams from the major conferences to face off
with the best small to mid-major conferences that could potentially be in the
position to secure multiple bids – this way we can at least have a series of
games to judge, for example, if Oregon is better than Indiana State or Baylor
is better than Ohio. My proposed
cross-section would certainly add more value because after all, we are trying
to determine how these small to mid-major conference best teams stack up with
the bubble teams from the major conferences.
But alas, that will not be the Bracket Busters format this
year – but the current version does offer up a nice variety of solid matchups,
which commence this evening. Let’s take
a game by game look at all 13 we will see tonight & tomorrow (all times
Eastern).
Friday
ESPN2 – North
Dakota State @ Akron [ 7pm]: Akron, current leaders of the MAC
conference hosts North Dakota State, currently the 3rd place team in
the Summit League. Neither team has any
significant wins over major conference teams during the OOC portion of their
schedules, which is where I typically start my handicapping in an attempt to
gauge the strengths of these types of teams.
I would give the slight edge to Akron in
their performances against major teams based on an OT loss to Oklahoma State Akron
will be without one of their key players, G Brian Walsh – their first game w/o
him on the floor. The statistics favor Akron , but with the line set at Akron -7.5 currently, that’s too hefty a
price for me to lay in this game. I will
pass here as there are better opportunities below to cash in on these games,
but if forced to make a selection would back Akron .
ESPNU – Stephen F.
Austin @ Long Beach
State Oklahoma , another over Tulsa ,
and a “closer than the score indicated” 8pt loss in College Station vs. Texas A&M. Both teams enter this game on fire as SFA is
22-3 on the season and has won 17 of their last 19 while State is 12-1 over
their last 13 outings. Statistically
speaking the Lumberjacks have the edge, but we must also consider the Southland
conference is annually one of the weakest in the country. All that being said I do not think this LBST
team is as good as Vegas gives it credit for, and I will back Stephen F. Austin
to cover the +2.5 and win this game outright.
Saturday
ESPNU – Iona @
Indiana State [11am]: in the opener of Saturday’s card Indiana State,
who at best is a bubble team following a couple recent losses, hosts Iona, currently
tied for 5th place in the MAAC.
The Sycamores’ RPI is 67 spots better than Iona ,
which seems to suggest this could be a mismatch, especially considering the
game is at ISU. ISU has certainly been
the more national story this season, and has earned it with multiple big wins
in conference play over Creighton & Wichita
State , along with a pair of nice OOC
wins over Miami , FL Iona
has struggled on the road, while ISU has been solid at home and heads into this
game losing 3 straight – they need a win in the worst way to potentially get
back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.
I will back Indiana State here to take care of business BIG over Iona , covering the 6pts.
ESPNU – Eastern
Kentucky @ Valparaiso [1pm]: this game features a pair of teams that
are playing second fiddle to another team in their conference, but both have a
decent resume, close RPI’s, and could provide one of the more entertaining,
higher level games of the BB weekend.
Neither team accomplished much during OOC play, but they do have a
common opponent @ Murray State : Valparaiso
won 66-64, while EKY also won 77-65. One
injury of note is EKY Sr. G Orlando Cruz, who has missed the last ten games and
is listed as questionable for this tilt.
The Colonels are 8-1 ATS on the road this season, and have dominated OVC
play outside 0-2 vs. Belmont
– they have not won a conference game by less than 6 points. These two teams are extremely close
statistically, and both shoot FT’s among the best in the nation – which could
wind up being the key stat that drives the winner of this game. I see these two teams being very similar, and
EKY has a lot of metrics discussed here favoring their side – and they are +6.5? Give me Eastern Kentucky
to cover this inflated # against an inconsistent Valpo squad.
ESPN3 – Canisius @
Vermont Vermont is laying 3; I will support the
underdog, grabbing the hook to +3.5 on Canisius.
ESPN3 – Pacific @
Western Michigan [2pm]: heading into the season I was high on Pacific,
projecting them to win the Big West, while I also thought W. Michigan could
contend in the MAAC. Neither has really
materialized this season, and neither is in position to earn an at-large bid
come Selection Sunday. The Tigers have
played the tougher schedule, but to mixed, at best, results. WMU comes into this one as the hotter team,
and has the edge in that this game is tipping at 11am Pacific time. I figured this # would be about double where
it currently sits, WMU -4. Playing the
hotter team, at home, when not laying much more than one possession is usually
a solid angle, and it’s one we will back here.
Let’s take the Broncos laying 4.
ESPNU – Montana @
Davidson [3pm]: Davidson has been one of the more dominating low to
mid-major teams in recent memory, but they have clearly taken a step back this
season. Meanwhile Montana has put
together a nice season of their own out of the Big West – the irony is these
teams have virtually the same RPI, expectations make each team’s seasons differ
in perception of success. Neither team
has any wins of note in OOC play, although Davidson did beat the likes of Vanderbilt
& West Virginia. Both teams enter
this contest red hot as Montana
is 14-1 over their last 15, while the Cats are 13-1 over their last 14. Neither team is in the mix for at-large
consideration. Very surprising that
Davidson is laying two touchdowns in this game – seems extremely inflated in a
matchup where the teams are identical in terms of RPI. Does Vegas know something we don’t? Maybe.
But hard to see Montana not showing up
and getting their doors blown off – hence, I will back Montana here +14.
ESPN3 – Northwestern State
@ Niagara [3pm]: in a matchup of
purple “N” teams the Demons travel to update NY to face the Eagles. Neither team beat anyone of note in OOC play,
nor are they involved in the at-large conversation. Niagara is
the 3rd team from the MAAC in BB – can someone explain to me why
three teams from a guaranteed one bid league were invited to this “party”? Just another aspect of this set-up that makes
limited sense in my opinion. NWST enters
this game as winners of 9 straight including beating SFA, the current conference
leader. Currently Niagara
is laying 4pts at home, but the Eagles do have one injury of note as G Antoine
Mason is questionable. Of all the games
on the card this is one of the toughest for me to get a solid feel on – hence,
we will pass here with no opinion either.
ESPN2 – Detroit @
Wichita State [4pm]: in one of the best BB matchups this year Detroit
and Wichita State will tangle in Kansas, with both at least in the conversation
for earning at-large bids – this game
certainly has A LOT on the line. The
Shockers are leading the MVC by 1 game over Creighton, while Detroit is 1 game behind Valpo for the
Horizon League top spot. These are a
pair of legitimate, NCAA Tournament quality good clubs, which should lead to a
dandy. In OOC play, although Detroit didn’t win any big games, they played some good
teams and played a few down to the wire, including a 4pt loss @ Syracuse . WSU didn’t get tested as much, but what they
did accomplish was beating some major conference foes such as Depaul , Iowa
ESPN2 – Creighton
@ St. Mary’s [6pm]: in another heavyweight mid-major matchup the Blue
Jays of Creighton head west to face the Gaels of St. Mary’s. If you have not seen him play yet this game
is worth tuning in for to witness the stellar play of Creighton F Doug
McDermott, who in my opinion is a lottery pick talent. STM will have trouble matching up with him,
but the Gaels have their own NBA talent in G Matthew Delavadova. As I have mentioned in some other articles
this Mary’s team is not at the same level we have seen from them recently –
they have clearly taken a step back this season as they didn’t win any OOC
games of note, and were swept by Gonzaga in conference play. The Blue Jays on the other hand have numerous
heavyweight wins over Wisconsin , Arizona State ,
and California . This Creighton team is legit – and I am
backing them to take care of STM tomorrow afternoon, SU, even though we are
getting 4.5! Creighton on the ML is the
play.
ESPN2 – South
Dakota State @ Murray State [8pm]: Murray State is like many of the big
name low to mid-major teams we have seen recently make some noise that is more
living on their name than their performance this season. It’s not that MSU has suffered through a poor
season – they are 19-7 – but they have been more inconsistent this season,
losing 4 conference games to this point.
South Dakota State is the 2nd Summit League team taking part
in the festivities, and is probably the better of the two, sporting the higher
RPI (#78 vs. #83), and have a win at New Mexico. SDST has won 10 of their last 12, while five
of their eight losses have come by 3pts or less. This game should come down to the wire, and
the difference might by Racers PG Isaiah Canaan, the All American. I think Murray State
ESPN3 – Denver @ Northern Iowa
[8pm]: starting with that 4pm tilt the backend of the card is very good. Although this one may not get the attention
it deserves, both of these teams are very solid, despite the fact they need to
win their conference to earn an NCAA Tourney bid. Denver is currently the 3rd best
team in the WAC, behind Louisiana Tech & New Mexico State, while Northern
Iowa is either the 3rd or 4th best team in the MVC behind
Creighton & Wichita State, and similar to Indiana State. The Pioneers pushed themselves in OOC play,
and although unable to secure any wins of note, showed well in losses to Cal , Colorado
State Denver by double digits
in this one.
ESPN2 – Ohio @ Belmont [10pm]:
and the nightcap may be the very best matchup of the entire card when Ohio travels south to face Belmont .
Belmont
joined the OVC this season, and although many thought they could potentially
struggle with the step up in conference, they have done anything but compiling
a 21-6 mark including 12-2 in conference play.
Ohio on the other hand is the 2nd
best team in the MAC, but once again finds itself behind rival Akron .
With an RPI of 75 it appears Ohio will
need to secure the conference’s auto-bid to be dancing, while Belmont ’s current RPI of #29 would have them
in the discussion for an at-large with a win here and reaching the OVC Final. This is a big game for both teams, make no
mistake about it. Ohio is a veteran squad; they have appeared
& advanced in the NCAA Tourney with many of these same players, so the
atmosphere will not bother them. This
should be a well-played, very solid game.
Vegas set Belmont as 6.5 point favorites
– I feel that is too many points and like Ohio to cover and possibly win this game SU.
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