Just like last season, as we currently sit about midway through the conference schedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAA Tournament. I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but need to do some work. I have added a new category this season called “life support”, which includes teams that really cannot afford many more losses the remainder of the season, but are still as of today in the conversation. For the non-AQ conferences I will generally select the team with the highest RPI as the conference winner/automatic bid. Teams are also listed in the general order I see them currently within their conference; for example, I view VCU as the 2nd team to likely receive a bid in the A-10, LaSalle the 3rd team and so on down the line. Here is where things currently stand through Sunday, February 3:
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Ten: Butler
Looking good: VCU
Need wins: Temple, St. Louis, LaSalle
Life support: UMass, Charlotte
ACC: Miami, Fla
Looking good: Duke, NC State
Need wins: North Carolina
Life support: Virginia, Maryland
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12: Kansas
Looking good: Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Need wins: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor
Big East: Louisville
Looking good: Syracuse, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Need wins: Marquette
Life Support: Villanova, St. Johns, Rutgers
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: UNC-Asheville
Big Ten: Indiana
Looking good: Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota
Need wins: Wisconsin
Life Support: Illinois
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Memphis
Looking good: Southern Mississippi
Life Support: UCF
Horizon: Valparaiso
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Niagara
MAC: Akron
If AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE ON LIFE SUPPORT to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Looking good: Wichita State
Life Support: Indiana State
Mountain West: New Mexico
Looking good: UNLV, Colorado State
Need wins: San Diego State
Life Support: Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming
Northeast: Bryant
Ohio Valley: Belmont
If BELMONT does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.
Pac 12: Arizona
Need wins: Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Arizona State
Life Support: Stanford, Washington, California
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Florida
Looking good: Kentucky, Missouri
Need wins: Ole Miss, Alabama
Life Support: Texas A&M
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
If MTSU does not win their conference tournament they would still be in the NEED WINS BUCKET to earn bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
West Coast: Gonzaga
If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.
Need wins: St. Mary’s, BYU
WAC: Louisiana Tech
If LA TECH does not win their conference tournament they would still be in the NEED WINS BUCKET to earn bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOOKING GOOD: 20
Currently I project 51 of the 68 bids are earned.
NEED WINS: 18
LIFE SUPPORT: 17
That leaves 35 teams that are in the mix for 17 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves. As of today it seems we will see less potential chances of that occurring this season – last year in my first NCAA Tournament Projection article which was same time of the year I had 13 instances where I felt if a team lost their Conference Tournament they would still at least be alive for an at-large selection; fast forward to today’s article and I only have 5 instances that could occur – 8 less is a significant #, which likely means we will see more at-large bids available to the landscape of college hoops than we have seen in the past – but it’s still very early to make that a definitive statement.
What is interesting with the numbers this time around is the “Need Wins” category has 18 teams & there are 17 bids remaining to be decided. The “Life Support” grouping contains teams that need a small miracle to earn themselves a bid to the tournament – but they are still included in the conversation at this point because their #’s right now (one way or another) support a chance at accomplishing that goal – but with many of these teams give it time and they will eliminate themselves most likely. I would be surprised if more than a handful (maximum) of those teams wound up earning an at-large bid.
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