2013 Big East Tournament Primer

Well an exciting 2012-2013 NCAA basketball regular season is in the books, and we now move on to a week of conference tournament action, followed by the postseason tournaments – highlighted of course by the NCAA Tournament.  But before we reach Selection Sunday there is a lot of action to play out including the AQ/BCS conference tournaments – in today’s article we will focus on the Grand Daddy of them All, the Big East Tournament!

Where: Madison Square Garden

When: March 12-16

Format: 1^st Rd (Seeds #11-14), 2^nd Rd (Two Rd1 winners & Seeds 5-10), QF (Four Rd2 winners & Seeds 1-4), SF, Championship

Notes: UConn 20-10/10-8 is ineligible because of poor APR.  They would have been the 8^th seed; all seeds have simply been shifted up one spot.

Recent Winners: 2012 – Louisville ; 2011 – Connecticut ; 2010 – West Virginia ; 2009 – Louisville ; 2008 – Pittsburgh.  Each of the last 3 winners has advanced to the Final Four with UConn winning the 2011 National Championship.

NCAA Tournament Impact: 8 teams (L’VILLE, G’TOWN, MARQ, SYR, PIT, ND, CIN, VILL) are likely to earn bids in the field, with Cincinnati & Villanova feeling 100% certain of their inclusion with one win here.  Otherwise, the only NCAAT issues relate to seeding & the s-curve.

Analysis: without question the biggest of the conference tournaments, the 2013 Big East Tournament will be the last version with the conference as we currently know it.  Next season the Big East will still be competing, and the BET will still be taking place at MSG, but the teams comprising the conference will be the Catholic 7 plus a few additions that have yet to be finalized.  But that is next year – today let’s focus on the excitement that is to be this season’s championship.  There was a 3 way tie atop the regular season standings with Georgetown (#1), Louisville (#2), Marquette (#3) finishing at 14-4.  Rounding out the top 4 seeds that have earned the “coveted” (or is it?) double bye is Pittsburgh, who finished at 12-6.  At the bottom of the conference was DePaul (#14), USF (#13), Seton Hall (#12) & Rutgers (#11) – those four will be facing off this evening with the right to move on to face #5 Syracuse & #6 Notre Dame.  Lastly, the middle portion of the bracket has Villanova (#7) who finished 10-8; a pair of .500 teams in Providence (#8) & Cincinnati (#9); and lastly 8-10 St. Johns (#10).  It seems very unlikely any seed below #9 reaches the QF’s on Thursday although Syracuse has not played great ball down the stretch to close their regular season.  Being that Cincinnati really needs a win if for nothing but confidence as they head into the NCAAT they should be a solid play from a revenge angle to beat upstart Providence in the 2^nd round.  The QF’s should look like this:

• #1 Georgetown vs. #9 Cincinnati: these teams met on 2/15 with the Hoyas coming out on top at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati 62-55.  The Bearcats really struggled from the field in that matchup shooting just 31.5% from the field & 16.7% on 24 3pt attempts; they also missed 13 FTs.  Unfortunately for Cincy their weakness is shooting/scoring as they are rated just #306 in FG%, while KenPom (KP) rates their adjusted offensive efficiency #117 – a poor mark for a major conference team.  With the Hoyas checking in #3 in KP defensive efficiency this is not a good matchup for the Bearcats – look for Georgetown to handle business in this QF, in what should be a low scoring, and could be a “closer than they experts think” game.
• #2 Louisville vs. #7 Villanova: earlier this season Villanova stunned Louisville 73-64 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.  Since that loss the Cardinals have gone 10-2 with their pair of losses coming by 2pts @ Georgetown (which was their next game after the Villanova loss) & by 3pts in 5 OT’s @ Notre Dame.  Basically, Louisville is currently playing some of its best ball of the season as they look to improve upon last year’s Final Four appearance, along with repeating & winning the BET for the 3^rd time in 5 years.  Villanova has showed the ability to play up or down to their competition, and could be a giant killer come the NCAAT – however, in this spot, with a revenge minded Cardinals team at MSG, the Wildcats will be hard pressed to pull off another stunner.  Give me Louisville in this game in what will likely be the biggest margin of victory of all 4 BET QF matchups.
• #3 Marquette vs. #6 Notre Dame: these teams recently met on 3/2 in Milwaukee, and the Golden Eagles won 72-64 after jumping out to a huge first half lead.  Marquette enters the BET as one of the hotter teams in the conference not named Georgetown going 6-1 SU over their L7; on the flip side the Fighting Irish are just 5-4 SU over their L9, with 2 of those 5 wins coming in OT+.  ND has failed to meet its expectations this season considering they returned everyone of note from a 21-10/13-5 team in 2012 – but it’s not too late to turn things around, and make a run in both the BET & more importantly the NCAAT.  I expect to see a revitalized Irish club in the 2013 postseason, leading them to a win here and their fourth straight SF appearance in the BET.
• #4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Syracuse: in the regular season meeting between these clubs the Panthers defended their home court and came out with a 65-55 win vs. then #6 Syracuse.  Since that game each team has gone in different directions with the Panthers winning 7 of their last 9 SU, while the Orange closed 1-4 over their last 5, and 3-5 over their last 8 SU.  Both of these schools have enjoyed immense success in the BET this century with Pitt appearing in 7 Championship Games since 2001 (but none since winning it all in 2008), while Syracuse has appeared in 3 Championship Games since 2005 winning it all twice.  Syracuse is the more talented club and probably more hungry; combine that with the fact the final BET is very important to Boeheim, and the Orange are playing with same season revenge, and you have the ingredients for a very exciting Syracuse win.

Those results would leave us with a Friday Night SF round of #1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse followed by #2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame.  The “Final Four” of the BET is one of the most exciting nights of the college basketball season for those that reside in the Northeast Corridor, and having the final one tip off with the third matchup of the season between the Hoyas & Orange would be epic!

• #1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse: simply put this would be the one matchup the entire country would probably want to see one more time; yes its perhaps one round too early, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers in this spot!  These teams met twice this year with the Hoyas sweeping the Orange – in the first meeting @ Syracuse the Hoyas came in as medium sized underdogs of +7 and beat the Orange SU 57-46 in the Carrier Dome.  In the regular season rematch Georgetown was a small favorite but once again had no issues dispatching Cuse 61-39 in one of the worst offensive performances from a Syracuse team in Boeheim’s career.  Do you think the Orange may be a little upset after that throttling last week?  I think so – and think Syracuse would definitely handle Georgetown if this matchup was to develop…give me the Cuse relatively BIG over the Hoyas in the first SF matchup.
• #2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame: both of these squads have played exceptionally well in the BET of late with ND reaching the SF round in each of the last 3 seasons (but they did not advance to the Finals in any of those three years however), while Louisville has been a participant in the Championship Game 3 of the last 4 years, winning it all twice.  These teams are known for their OT thrillers over the years, and it happened once again this year as the Irish beat the Cardinals in Rd1 this year in South Bend 104-101 in 5OT!  However, in the rematch that just took place 3/9 @ Louisville the Cardinals had no issues taking care of business vs. the visiting Irish, pounding them 73-57.  Both of these teams will be used to the spotlight and pressure that is Friday night at the BET – so one big question is which squad is better equipped to handle it?  I think this Louisville team is peaking and playing their best basketball of the season right now – just like they did last season which led to a Final Four appearance (which is where I think they are headed this year at a minimum).  Give me Louisville taking down ND as the Irish will once again come up just short in their last chance of reaching the BET Final.

That would leave us with a Saturday night Championship Game between #5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville – the two teams I think most basketball savvy fans projected as the cream of the Big East crop in 2012-2013.

• #5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville: although it would be great to see a couple old-school heavyweights from the original Big East square off for the last tournament championship, in my opinion, these are the two best, most talented, best equipped to make a run at a national championship teams in the conference.  They have met twice during the regular season, both winning on the opponent’s home floor: 1/19 Syracuse won at Louisville 70-68 & 3/2 Louisville winning in the Dome 58-53.  These two squads are very even across the board, and breaking down the statistics from their first two meetings there was not much difference comparing the two.  The Cardinals are the #1 defense in the country according to KP, while the Cuse’s vaunted 2/3 matchup zone has them at #10.  Louisville is also about 10 spots higher using offensive metrics according to KP – meaning there is a small gap between these two teams with Ville marginally “better” both offensively and defensively according to KP.  Both teams have HOF head coaches and enough experience where it will not be a factor either way.  On a neutral floor this game should be an absolute classic as I fully expect the Orange to find their groove @ MSG & get back to performing like one of the best teams in the country; Louisville is already there.  I am going to give the edge to Syracuse, halting Louisville’s hopes at becoming the first Big East team to win back to back BET’s since the Orange did it themselves in ’05-’06.

In the final Big East Tournament as we have known it, and grown to love it over these last 30+ years, the Syracuse Orange will come out on top, winning their 6^th BET crown, which only trails Georgetown & Connecticut who have each hoisted the trophy 7 times since the tourney’s inception.

Current Vegas Odds to win the Big East Tournament

Louisville 2/1

Georgetown 4/1

Pittsburgh & Syracuse 5/1

Marquette 10/1

Notre Dame 18/1

Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1

Providence 60/1

St. Johns 75/1

Rutgers & South Florida 250/1

Seton Hall 350/1

DePaul 750/1

Based on those odds I would eliminate the top & bottom 4 schools – the top 4 are eliminated because there just isn’t enough value there to play those teams (I would rather play game to game on any of those four), while the bottom 4 just simply have zero chance at winning the trophy.  Using that strategy leaves us with 6 teams – and of those 6 I would eliminate St. Johns & Providence as I do not feel either of those two is consistent enough on a nightly basis to string together the necessary amount of wins needed to win the championship, along with both teams suffering a lack of depth or injuries which will certainly come into play in this type of layout.  That leaves us with Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova & Cincinnati – four likely NCAA Tournament teams, but with just one combined Big East Tournament Championship (Villanova 1995).  Of those four Cincinnati is the only team on the top of the bracket, and keep in mind they advanced to the Championship Game last season before falling to Louisville – in other words, they are in the weaker portion of the draw, and just last year reached the final.  The other three squads are in the bottom half of the bracket, with Marquette & Notre Dame likely playing each other in the QF round – meaning one of the two is likely, but not a lock, to reach the SF round.  Villanova is also in the bottom half of the draw, but has to get by the host team St John’s (shouldn’t be an issue) followed by a revenge minded Louisville team in the QF round.  Despite that fact, because the odds are high and Nova has proven it can play with the best this season, I would suggest action on Marquette 10/1, Notre Dame 18/1, Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1 to win the Big East Tournament – keeping in mind there are hedging opportunities on all four down the road. 

Many ask me about hedging – what does that mean, and how can it be done?

Briefly, we would like hold off on hedging Marquette or Notre Dame until the two played in the QF round – unless ND was taken out in the 2^nd round, then we would want to protect the original investments in ND & MARQ by hedging and taking either Rutgers or DePaul on huge ML’s when they played Marquette. 

On Villanova we could hedge so long as they reached the QF vs. Louisville since their mark of 25/1 is sizeable & leaves a lot of arbitrage opportunity.

Cincinnati is the same story as Villanova, with the fact they are going off at 25/1 really leaving the door open to at least recoup our original investment in them before their game versus Georgetown if we like.

We could also hedge Nova & Cincy in the 2^nd round considering their opponents should be decent sized underdogs.  For example, let’s use Villanova:

• We laid $100 on Villanova to win the BET at a level of +$2,500
• We could simply play St. John’s on the ML versus Villanova in the 2^nd round at odds approximately +200 (using an estimate but no matter what the line is you can get the math to work with a huge gap between $100 investment & $2,500 upside)
• The idea being to risk $50 to win $100 on St. John’s beating Villanova in the 2^nd round
• That would lead to one of two outcomes:
• St John’s upsets Villanova: we lose our original $100 placed on Villanova to win the BET, but we win $100 from the $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova – net zero.
• Villanova beat St. John’s: we lose our $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova in the 2^nd round, but we still have the chance to win $2,500 if Villanova wins the BET – net results in maximum payoff on Villanova winning the BET of $2,450

What is key to hedging is you need to have significant odds on the original investment, and also its best to play an underdog as your hedge opposite your original side since that is laying out less money to win back your original outlay (see Villanova/St. John’s example above).

Check back over the next couple days as additional major conference tournament previews are posted!

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2013 NCAA Tournament – Field of 68 thru March 10th

Now that the regular season is complete we can get a firm field on what the Field of 68 will look like come Sunday, BRACKETOLOGY STYLE.  In this analysis teams will be grouped in a couple sections, clearly labeled at the top of each.  Here is what the Field looks like as of today:

(31) AUTOMATIC BIDS [teams underlined, highlighted and in bold have sealed their bid]

Vermont [replaces last version’s projected winner Stony Brook]

St. Louis

Duke [replaces last version’s projected winner Miami]

Florida Gulf Coast

Kansas

Louisville

Montana

Charleston Southern   Liberty

Indiana

Long Beach State

Northeastern

Memphis

Valparaiso

Harvard

Iona [replaces last version’s projected winner Loyola Maryland]

Ohio [replaces last version’s projected winner Akron]

Norfolk State

Creighton

New Mexico

LIU Brooklyn [replaces last version’s projected winner Robert Morris]

Belmont

Arizona

Bucknell

Florida

Davidson

Stephen F. Austin

Southern

South Dakota State

Western Kentucky [replaces last version’s projected winner Middle Tennessee State]

Gonzaga

Louisiana Tech

(25) LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS – these teams are LOCKS to be in the Field of 68 even with an opening round loss in their conference tournaments.  These teams are listed in strength order within conferences – for example, VCU is currently rated higher than Butler in our opinion.

A10: VCU, Butler

ACC: Miami, North Carolina, NC State

B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma

BE: Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Villanova

B10: Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin

MVC: Wichita State

MWC: Colorado State, UNLV

P12: UCLA

SEC: Missouri

WCC: St. Mary’s

(7) TEAMS THAT WILL LIKELY EARN A BID WITH ONE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN [RPI] – here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket. 

A10: Temple [36]

B12: Iowa State [47]

B10: Minnesota [23], Illinois [42]

MWC: San Diego State [30]

P12: Oregon [52], California [48]

(10) TEAMS THAT LIKELY NEED 2+ WINS IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT TO EARN A BID [RPI] – again, here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket. 

A10: LaSalle [39], UMass [57]

ACC: Virginia [66]

CUSA: Southern Mississippi [38]

MWC: Boise State [37]

P12: Colorado [34]

SEC: Tennessee [54], Kentucky [50], Alabama [62], Ole Miss [56]

(1) TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT REMAIN ON BUBBLE [RPI]

SB: Middle Tennessee State [28]

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOCKS: 25

56 of 68 BIDS ARE LOCKED UP AS OF GAMES PLAYED ON 3/10

LIKELY “IN” WITH 1 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN: 7

LIKELY “IN” WITH 2+ CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WINS: 10

TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT ON BUBBLE: 1

For this projection we will use the 56 “LOCKS”, the next 7 in the “Likely IN with 1 conference tournament win”, and the following 5 teams to close out the Field of 68: LaSalle, Boise State, Colorado, Tennessee, Kentucky

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS BREAKDOWN & ANALYSIS – here we will examine each conference tournament where bubble teams will be taking part, and attempting to set some goals for each team to earn their own at-large bid.

A10: the two areas to follow in this tournament will be the middle portion of the bracket.  In the 5/12 matchup Butler will face Dayton with the winner moving on to meet #4 LaSalle.  That game will be a must win for LaSalle to keep their at-large hopes alive.  In the 6/11 matchup UMass will tangle with George Washington with the winner moving on to face #3 Temple.  UMass definitely needs to beat GW & Temple to remain in consideration of receiving an at-large bid.  To summarize, there are three teams in the A10 that still have work to do in hopes of earning a bid.  #4 LaSalle must win at least one game, and it would be in their best interest if they faced Butler in their opener; if Dayton was to beat Butler in the opening round LaSalle would likely need two wins – which they may need anyway.  #3 Temple at worst needs just one more win to cement their status (they may earn a bid even without one more win).  Lastly, #6 UMass is on the outside looking in, and has a lot of work to do – for them to really get into the conversation for an at-large berth they most likely need to beat GW, Temple and also win a SF round game vs. #2 VCU (if seeds held).

ACC: there is only one team to follow closely in this tournament as far as NCAA Tournament status, and that team is Virginia, who sports a record of 21-10/11-7, but only has an RPI of #66 along with 7 sub 100 RPI losses.  After drawing a bye in the opening round they will face the winner of #5 NC State/#12 Virginia Tech – for their sake hopefully it’s the Wolfpack, and the Cavs must win that game.  If they did beat State and reached the SF round it could go either way if they truly “need” another win.  For us, a good outing vs. Miami is a must at the very least.  If they lost their first game they will likely be relegated to the NIT.

B12: in our opinion, which differs from other analysts out there blogging about bracketology, the only team from this conference that can still earn an at-large bid is Iowa State.  Baylor, involved in some people’s brackets at this point in the proceedings, was removed from our projections a few weeks ago, and with a record of 17-13/9-9, and an RPI of #61, they need to secure the conference’s automatic bid to be dancing in 2013.  ISU on the other hand needs just one win because of the way the B12 bracket broke, as their opener in the 4/5 game is versus Oklahoma.  If the Cyclones beat the Sooners they will have sealed their fate; if they lose that game they are not eliminated from contention, but their berth would be greatly impacted by the performance of other teams; not a preferable way to enjoy their weekend.

B10: Minnesota & Illinois both finished conference play below .500, a significant red mark on their resume.  It also just so happens they will face off in the B10 Tournament opening round 8/9 game, with the winner moving on to face #1 Indiana.  But the issue here is only one team can win, leaving the loser at 8-11 – perhaps an insurmountable obstacle towards earning an at-large bid.  Our thought is the winner seals their bid, while the loser maybe in trouble, especially if the loser is Illinois, whose RPI is ~20 spots worse than Minnesota.

CUSA: Southern Miss has a decent record, and good enough RPI – but where are the big wins?  Their best win on the season was November 27^th at home vs. Denver; since then their best work was a sweep of RPI #92 East Carolina, hardly resume fodder.  For the Golden Eagles to secure their own at-large bid it seems they need to advance to the CUSA Championship Game, and at the very least put up a better fight vs. Memphis than they were able to muster in both regular season contests.  Unless they win the conference’s automatic bid it would be in their best interest if Memphis advanced and met them in the title game; otherwise, SMISS will almost certainly be on the outside looking in come Sunday.

MWC: all season this has clearly been one of the better if not the best non-AQ conference, and the payoff could be numerous tickets punched to the NCAA Tournament come Sunday.  Right now it seems there are two teams that have not locked up their status just yet, San Diego State & Boise State.  Much like the Big Ten, unfortunately, those teams will face off in the opening round Thursday afternoon.  The Aztecs are just about in the field – they will likely make an appearance, but at this point they do not 100% own a spot.  Boise State still has some work to do, needing at least a win over SD State to keep their hopes alive.  For the conference the best thing that could happen is a tight Boise State win over SD State, followed up by the Broncos beating New Mexico in the SF round.  One point of note is BSU does not necessarily have to beat New Mexico per say in the SF round – if the Lobos were upset by Wyoming or Nevada that would be fine for BSU – they just need more wins, not necessarily of the top rated variety.

P12: much like recent history the P12 Tournament will be a wide open affair with many team’s hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament resting on their performance at Staples Center this weekend (keep in mind the #1 or #2 seed has only cut the nets down as conference champion once in the past 6 seasons).  Taking a look at the bracket, Colorado is the only bubble team playing on the opening day; hence one of the reasons they are listed as needing two wins to earn an at-large bid.  The #5 seed Buffaloes open vs. #12 Oregon State, whom they lost to at home Saturday.  If they pick up that win they would move on to face #4 Arizona in the QF round (rematch of last year’s championship game which Colorado won) – a win they may need to earn a berth.  Also in the QF round, #3 Oregon will face the winner of the Washington schools, while #2 California will meet the winner of #7 USC/#10 Utah.  All three teams could seal up their bids by advancing to the SF round; Colorado cannot afford a loss to Oregon State in the opening round; otherwise, there is a lot to be decided for these teams based on not only their results, but other schools across the country.

SEC: perhaps more impactful than the P12’s Tournament, the SEC Conference Tournament will hold the direct fate of numerous teams – right now it appears two teams are locks to be dancing, Florida & Missouri; the rest of the conference’s hopeful tournament teams are on the bubble.  The bracket will play a big factor in the chances of these four teams, so with that in mind let’s start with Tennessee, whom we have as the “best chance” SEC bubble team currently, but they are the only one of the four playing their first game before the QF round.  The #5 Vols will play the winner of #12 South Carolina/#13 Mississippi State on Thursday, with the winner of that game reaching the QF round to face off with #4 Alabama.  Right off the bat, Tennessee must at least win that opening game to remain in the conversation for an at-large berth.  That sets up the following QF games involving these four teams: #5 Tennessee vs. #4 Alabama, #7 Arkansas/#10 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Kentucky, #6 Texas A&M/#14 Auburn/#6 Missouri vs. #2 Ole Miss.  The UT/UA game is surely an elimination game, with the loser having little chance of earning a bid; Kentucky will definitely need to win their opener vs. Arkansas/Vanderbilt as neither of those teams are NCAA Tournament caliber, and the Wildcats cannot afford another bad loss; lastly, Ole Miss will likely meet Missouri in their QF game – another must win situation.  To summarize the QF round, either Tennessee or Alabama will be knocked out of consideration after those two meet (and if they don’t meet Tennessee is finished anyway), while both UK & Ole Miss need wins.  Let’s bullet point what each team needs since there is a lot going on with this tourney:

• #5 Tennessee: needs to win their opening round game, beat Alabama in the QF, and have a good showing vs. likely Florida in the SF round
• #4 Alabama: needs to beat Tennessee & likely Florida to earn a bid
• #3 Ole Miss: needs to win the bottom half of the draw which means an appearance in the SEC Championship Game
• #2 Kentucky: like Ole Miss needs to either win the bottom half of the bracket, or win their QF matchup vs. Ark/Vandy and have a good showing vs. Missouri (if Mizzou was to beat A&M/Auburn then Ole Miss).  They cannot afford a win in their QF game followed by a loss to Ole Miss.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD

A10: 5

ACC: 4

B12: 5

BE: 8

B10: 7

MVC: 2

MWC: 5

P12: 5

SEC: 4

WCC: 2

1 BID CONFERENCES: 21

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2013 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field as of March 6

Here we go folks, down to one weekend of the regular season, then onto conference tournament week to finalize the 2013 Field of 68!  It does not get much more exciting than this time of year for college basketball fans.  So without any more conversation let’s break down each conference as we have since the beginning of February – today’s analysis includes all games through Wednesday March 6:

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten: St. Louis

                Looking good: VCU, Butler

                Need wins: Temple [41], LaSalle [38]

                Life support: UMass [55]

Summary: the only change this week is the removal of Charlotte from consideration.  The top three listed teams will be dancing; Temple & LaSalle are still in a strong position for at-large bids; UMass is barely hanging on but remains in the conversation thanks to wins over Dayton & @ Xavier in their last two outings.  Currently Temple is slotted above LaSalle although the teams are very similar –the Owls get the edge based on their head to head win, and a stronger OOC profile.  It’s likely both teams earn bids come Selection Sunday.  The Minutemen probably need to win out (BUT, @ URI) & advance to at least the A10 SF round to have a strong enough case for inclusion.  This conference will have at least four teams, very possibly five & an outside shot at six teams earning bids come next Sunday.

ACC: Duke (replaces last week’s projected conference winner Miami)

                Looking good: Miami, North Carolina, NC State

Life support: Virginia [63]

Summary: based on recent results Duke replaces Miami as the projected conference winner.  The top four teams listed are all locks to make the tournament, while Virginia remains squarely on the bubble.  The Cavaliers early season struggles versus a very poor OOC schedule may come back to bite them in the sense of missing out on a tourney bid despite the fact they are clearly playing at a tournament team level using the eye test recently.  They can leverage their 7-2 mark vs. RPI Top 100, their wins over 3 of the 4 ACC teams that will be dancing, and an OOC win over Wisconsin – but still have some work to do.  Their remaining slate features games @ FSU and home to MARY – if they were to win both that would put them at 12-6 in ACC play, and well positioned to earn an at-large.  Right now it seems the Cavaliers magic # is 2 – pick up another pair of wins and they should earn a bid.

Atlantic Sun: Mercer (replaces last week’s projected conference winner Florida Gulf Coast.  The ASUNT will be played on Mercer’s home court, and considering they did not lose one game all year at home they have to be considered the favorite)

Big 12: Kansas

                Looking good: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma

                Need wins: Iowa State [51]

                Summary: Baylor has been removed from consideration right now as their chances have likely vanished besides grabbing the B12 auto-bid, which seems unlikely.  The top 4 teams are locks with the fifth team, Iowa State, still on the bubble but relatively well positioned.  They caught a few tough breaks on Big Monday last week, leading to a loss versus Kansas in OT; they followed that up with a loss @ Oklahoma Saturday, doing themselves no favors late in the season.  However, they bounced back last night beating Oklahoma State, giving them a trio of wins over the RPI Top 50.  If they take care of WVU at home on Saturday that would move them to 21-10/11-7, typically bubble territory for B12 teams.  They will almost certainly open the B12T facing Oklahoma in the 4/5 game – that will be a huge game for the Cyclones chances; win that one and they will likely earn a bid, lose it and they will have to depend on others which is never a good position to be in.  This conference will have four & possibly five teams dancing.

Big East: Louisville

                Looking good: Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova

                Need Wins: Cincinnati [45]

                Summary: STJ has been removed from consideration this week, while Villanova has jumped to the “Looking Good” category following another top 5 win last night over Georgetown.  Right now the BE has 7 teams that are basically locks to earn bids, and Cincinnati that is currently on the right side of the bubble but can ill afford a loss to South Florida at home Saturday because that would leave them with an 8-10 conference record.  The Bearcats would lock up their berth with that aforementioned win, which we fully expect to occur.  Once again the BE will be well represented in the tournament with 8 teams taking part.

Big Sky: Montana

Big South: Charleston Southern

Big Ten: Indiana

                Looking good: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin

                Need wins: Minnesota [20], Illinois [34]

                Summary: this conference has not looked as good recently as it did say in mid-January as Minnesota, Wisconsin & Illinois have all showed signs of significant struggles at one point or another during conference play.  Even OSU had not picked up a big road win before taking down the Hoosiers in Bloomington Tuesday evening.  Despite that observation we have five teams that are locks to be dancing, with two others currently listed on the “Need Wins” line considering they are just 8-9 in conference play with one game remaining.  First up is Minnesota, sitting nicely with a #20 RPI, but coming off a terrible road loss @ Nebraska last night.  It’s a good thing for the Gophers that they beat Indiana last week or they could be in a lot of trouble at this point – but as things currently stand a win @ Purdue on Saturday would likely seal up their bid.  Considering MIN is 1-7 on the road in conference play (their lone road win was their first conference road game @ ILL on 1/9, and is facing a Purdue team that took Michigan to the wire last night, picking up that win is not a certainty; if they did finish 8-10 in conference play it would seem, despite their high RPI, they would need to reach the B10T SF round.  Next up is Illinois, who is also just 8-9 in conference play, seemingly needing to close their regular season with a win to reach the magical .500 mark in B10 play.  Unfortunately for them they will be travelling to Ohio State, a very big & tough task.  It seems to us both these teams will lose on Saturday leaving them at 8-10, and needing a pair of wins in the B10T to earn their at-large bid.  Projecting ahead at the brackets in that tourney, it looks like both teams would be playing on the opening night vs. either Purdue or Nebraska; those games would be absolute MUST WINS because a bad loss there on top of a sub .500 conference mark would almost certainly spell doom.  If both advanced they would then face the #1/#2 seeds, likely Indiana & Michigan – and both of those contests could potentially be must wins for the two.  Quite frankly these teams have just lost too many poor games during conference play, and have struggled so much on the road they are not a lock to be dancing right now – keep an eye on both on Saturday & next week in Indianapolis.

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: Northeastern

Conference USA: Memphis

                Need Wins: Southern Mississippi [42]

                Summary: although SMISS sports a strong record and decent RPI they seriously lack big wins – they are 0-5 vs. the RPI Top 50.  For us, using that metric & the good old fashioned eye test, they have to be rated below the likes of Illinois, Minnesota & Virginia on my s-curve – and truthfully there is not much the Eagles can do from here on out playing in a weak CUSA.  At the very least a Title Game appearance & good showing vs. hopefully Memphis (for their case) is needed to garner serious attention come Selection Sunday.

Horizon: Valparaiso (this conference tournament should be very exciting & is likely to come down to a very solid championship game between Detroit and Valparaiso)

Ivy: Harvard (this conference will likely be decided in a playoff between Harvard & Princeton [who currently has a ½ game lead on Harvard])

MAAC: Loyola Maryland (sticking with LOYMD for now although this CT will be extremely competitive, with four teams legitimately having a chance at earning the conference’s automatic bid)

MAC: Akron (the Zips will really present the committee with a tough decision should they not earn their conference’s automatic bid.  They are currently 23-5, RPI #48, but are just 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50 with their best win on the season vs. Middle Tennessee State.  Our hunch is as long as they reach the CT Final they will earn a bid win or lose)

MEAC: Norfolk State (the Spartans are currently 15-0 in MEAC play, which may actually work against them come their CT.  Although they will enjoy home court it’s extremely tough beating teams twice, let alone three times in the same season – a task Norfolk State would have to accomplish multiple times to earn their conference’s automatic bid – keep an eye on that)

Missouri Valley: Creighton

                Looking good: Wichita State

                Summary: these two teams can lock themselves into bids by winning out, and meeting in the MVC Championship Game.  If either team loses a regular season game, or early in the tourney, their bids could be in serious trouble – but our hunch is they will both be dancing come Selection Sunday.

Mountain West: New Mexico

                Looking good: UNLV, Colorado State

                Need wins: San Diego State [31]

                Life Support: Boise State [44]

                Summary: huge win for Boise State over Colorado State last weekend.  SDST is right on the fringe of locking up their own berth, but this weekend’s clash with Boise State in Boise could put that lock on hold for a few days.  The Broncos must win that game at home, and do some damage in the MWT to increase their profile.  It seems the Aztecs & Broncos will meet in back to back games, with the latter coming in the opening round of the MWT – if SDST wins one of the two they are a lock; BSU on the other hand probably needs to win both, or at worst the MWT matchup, which would give them another opportunity to boost their resume likely facing New Mexico in the SF round.  In summary, SDST needs one more win to become to 4^th MWC team dancing, while BSU likely needs two or possibly three wins to feel comfortable about their positioning amongst the bubble teams.

Northeast: Robert Morris

Ohio Valley: Belmont (we feel the Bruins, sporting a #22 RPI, are a lock to dance so long as they advance to the OVC Championship Game next week)

Pac 12: Arizona

Looking good: UCLA [37], Oregon [47]

                Need wins: California [50], Colorado [28]

                Summary: this conference, just like last season, remains the biggest enigma.  Right now it seems Arizona, UCLA & Oregon are likely to be dancing, with California & Colorado still in the mix.  We give the edge to Cal between the two “Need Wins” teams based on conference record – Colorado still has two games remaining at home versus the pair of Oregon schools; win both and they too should be able to sit a little more comfortably come Selection Sunday.  The P12T doesn’t appear to be that critical this season, but Cal & Colorado would both do themselves good by at least winning their opening round game.  When all is said and done this conference will earn 4/5 bids.

Patriot: Bucknell (the Bison will be very tough to beat with the league’s MVP & Defensive POY Mike Muscala leading the way on their home court)

SEC: Florida

                Looking good: Missouri

                Need wins: Tennessee [56], Kentucky [53]

Life Support: Alabama [60]

                Summary: along with the Pac 12 the SEC has quite a few teams that are in the mix, but yet to punch their dance ticket.  Florida & Missouri will be taking part in the tournament, but TEN, UK & BAMA all have work to do.  Tennessee closes the season at home versus Missouri, and a win there would be huge for their chances; Kentucky also has a big finale, hosting Florida; Alabama has a near lock win at home versus Georgia.  It would seem if either UT or UK was able to win their finale they would be well positioned versus other bubble teams, but may also need an opening round win in the SECT to feel good about their positioning.  If any of the three reaches the SECT SF round they also would feel good about their chances.  As things currently stand it seems the SEC will have at least 3, possibly 4, and an outside shot at earning 5 bids this season.

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Southern

Summit: South Dakota State (this CT will be very entertaining with Western Illinois & North Dakota State battling the Jackrabbits for the conference’s automatic bid – I give SDST the edge since the tournament is taking place in South Dakota)

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State (the Raiders are also likely to earn an at-large selection behind a #23 RPI despite the fact they only have 1 RPI Top 100 win so long as they reach the SBT Final)

West Coast: Gonzaga

                Looking Good: St. Mary’s [36]

Summary: Expect both teams to be dancing come Selection Sunday.

WAC: Louisiana Tech

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 25 (+4 from last week)

Currently I project 56 of the 68 bids are earned.  That means there are 12 unsecured/open bids. 

NEED WINS: 12 (-3 to last week)

LIFE SUPPORT: 4 (-5 to last week)

That leaves 16 teams that are in the mix for 12 open bids.

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

As we wind down the season many of the “Need Wins” teams are well positioned to earn a bid, but others could still get themselves in trouble losing their last game or two (such as Minnesota or Illinois who would be left with sub .500 conference marks should they lose their finales).  There are now only four teams on “Life Support” that still have enough good aspects of their resume to be included in the discussion, but also have a lot of work to do to better position themselves come Selection Sunday.  And remember, we will see conference tournament upsets, and bid stealing situations – I believe teams such as Memphis, Akron, Belmont, and Middle Tennessee State are all non-AQ conference teams that would earn an at-large bid should they at least reach their conference tournament’s final and lose; and that does not include conferences such as the A10, MVC, and WCC that are just a step below the major conferences, but will have extremely competitive tournaments where teams could earn the automatic bid that are not even under discussion at this point (such as UMass, Indiana State, BYU respectively).  All those situations warrant very close attention because at the end of the day, we will likely see approximately 5 of those instances, which obviously only slides up the level needed to earn a bid – in other words, it’s likely the 4 teams currently on “Life Support” will wind up well out of the field barring earning their conference automatic bid versus the “First Four Out” status they are currently under.

One thing is for sure, as we have seen all regular season, the final weekend and next week’s conference tournaments will be up for grabs – expect many upsets, and a handful of teams that will feel snubbed come Selection Sunday!

Next update will be Monday March 11 where the projected field will be discussed inclusive of all regular season action!

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2013 NCAA Tournament – Field of 68 thru February 28th

Now that the weekday games are complete here is where we actually project the FIELD OF 68 using those results along with the weekly report of each conference that gets posted here.  As the days turn into weeks, the ability to accurately project the field becomes increasingly easier as many teams play themselves right out of the discussion – which we have seen a lot recently.  So, without any further delay, here is how we see the current field shaping up:

AUTOMATIC BIDS (31)

Stony Brook

St. Louis [replaces Butler from last version]

Miami, Fla

Florida Gulf Coast

Kansas

Louisville

Montana

Charleston Southern [replaces UNC-Asheville from last version]

Indiana

Long Beach State

Northeastern

Memphis

Valparaiso

Harvard

Canisius

Akron

Savannah State [replaces North Carolina Central from last version]

Creighton

New Mexico

Bryant

Belmont

Arizona

Bucknell

Florida

Davidson

Stephen F. Austin

Southern

South Dakota State

Middle Tennessee State

Gonzaga

Louisiana Tech

NEAR LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS (21) – some are a LOCK to be dancing, and the remaining are close to LOCK status – but its 3/1, meaning there are still 1.5 weeks of regular season action, so teams need to continue winning games – no reason to think they will not hence why they show up in this category.  Teams are listed within their conference in the order we envision their seeds to be (meaning we currently project Butler to have a higher seed than VCU, etc…).

A10: Butler, VCU

ACC: Duke, North Carolina, NC State

B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma

BE: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

B10: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota

MWC: UNLV, Colorado State

SEC: Missouri

BUBBLE TEAMS THAT RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE FIELD (16) & FIVE OTHERS WHO ARE ALIVE TO EARN A BERTH – most of these teams will wind up in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday, but none of them have signed, sealed & delivered their spot as of yet.  As the days & weeks continue to pass expect many of these teams to move up to the next category as they continue bolstering their resumes; while others will fall off & miss the dance.

#    Team                                   Record vs. Top 25/50/100 RPI           Road/Neutral                              Best RPI Win                                         BPI

53. Illinois [#31]                                 4-6/5-7/8-7         7-5          7 INDIANA                          #59

54. UCLA [#39]                                  2-1/4-4/10-6       7-4          14 ARIZONA                       #36

55. San Diego State [#33]              2-6/4-6/7-8         7-7          2 NEW MEXICO                      #28

56. Wichita State [#41]                   0-0/3-0/8-5         10-4       34 VCU                                 #26

57. Oregon [#47]                              2-1/3-4/9-6         6-4          14 ARIZONA                       #29

58. Colorado [#22]                           2-2/4-3/9-7         8-6          14 ARIZONA                       #31

59. Temple [#37]                              1-2/3-3/9-5         8-5          12 SYRACUSE                     #57

60. Virginia [#58]                              3-2/4-2/7-2        3-7          1 DUKE                                 #40

61. Villanova [#56]                           3-1/4-6/6-9         7-7          6 LOUISVILLE                      #62

62. Cincinnati [#48]                          1-3/3-7/7-9         8-4          13 MARQUETTE                  #32

63. California [#46]                          1-3/4-5/7-9         9-5          14 ARIZONA                         #49

64. St. Mary’s [#45]                         0-2/1-2/6-3         11-4       43 CREIGHTON                      #37

65. LaSalle [#35]                                0-1/2-2/5-6         10-5       26 BUTLER                           #51

66. Iowa State [#53]                        1-4/2-6/5-7         4-8          21 KANSAS ST                    #42

67. Boise State [#49]                       1-4/2-5/6-6         7-7          16 UNLV                               #53

68. Tennessee [#52]                       1-2/3-4/8-9         5-7          9 FLORIDA                           #56

69. Kentucky [#50]                          0-3/1-4/6-8         5-6          36 MISSOURI                     #38

70. Southern Mississippi [#40]        0-3/0-4/3-6         11-6       NONE                                    #61

71. Ole Miss [#55]                            0-2/1-4/5-6         6-6          36 MISSOURI                     #39

72. Alabama [#65]                            0-0/1-3/7-5         6-6          50 KENTUCKY                     #67

72. Baylor [#59]                                 0-4/2-7/4-9         6-7          28 OKLAHOMA STATE    #46

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD (only showing multiple bid conferences)

A10: 5

ACC: 5

B12: 5

BE: 8

B10: 7

MVC: 2

MWC: 5

P12: 5

SEC: 3

WCC: 2

This week was very eventful as quite a few teams removed themselves from consideration going forward – like Maryland, BYU, Indiana State and Charlotte to name a few.  Right now I only see 5 teams alive that do not currently have a spot in the dance – but once we start seeing conference tournament upsets some of the bottom 5 currently in the field will begin slipping out, sliding that bubble or cut-off point up a few spots.  On average let’s figure there are 5 “bid stealing” situations that develop over the next two weeks – here are the teams that could be in trouble, and what they likely need to do to secure their own bid:

68. Tennessee: 4 more wins would likely secure their spot in the dance.  Whether that comes from going 3-0 to close regular season & picking up 1 SECT win, or going 2-1 to close and winning two in the SECT – four wins is their magic number.

67. Boise State: they first off need to go at least 2-1 to close regular season which would put them above .500 in MWC play – which seems like a barometer.  The issue for the Broncos is their remaining schedule is vs. CSU, @ UNLV, vs. SDST – three teams that will likely be in the dance.  Even if they did go 2-1 they also would likely need to win at least one game and possibly two in the MWCT – again the problem is most likely would face one of those three teams or New Mexico in the 2^nd round.  It appears as of now it will be tough for BSU to hang onto their spot.

66. Iowa State: the Cyclones need a 2-1 close to their regular season which would put them at 11-7, typically bubble territory for B12 teams.  If they were able to accomplish that it would mean at least one big win over either OU or OKST, which would assist the resume.  They will likely face Oklahoma in the first round of the B12T, a game they would need to win at the very least to remain in the field.

65. LaSalle: the Explorers need at least 2-1 to close their regular season, but possibly need 3-0 because they cannot afford a bad loss, and still do not have a big win to hang their hat on – their last game @ STL would provide that.  If they go 2-1 with a loss to STL I feel the Explorers need at least a SF appearance in the A10T, possibly to reach the final to secure their bid.

64. St. Mary’s: the Gaels need to close the regular season with a win over Santa Clara, then likely need to reach the BWT Final to secure their bid.  A loss to SC or earlier in the BWT could spell doom for Mary’s.

The key to understanding the chances some of these bubble teams have at actually receiving a bid is realizing there will be bid stealing teams – which will in fact slide the bubble UP, as in teams that are currently projected to earn a spot will wind up missing out.  That is why right now it seems pretty clear, at least to us, there are only 69 teams that truly “deserve” a bid using current data – Kentucky as of this moment is the team left off this analysis.  But, we know how tough it becomes to decide on the last few teams – and this year will be no different because the bid stealing will occur, sliding the bubble up, then we will have to decide on teams like Iowa State, LaSalle and/or St. Mary’s – who amongst them most deserves a spot?  Tough question for sure…..

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