This is our third & final installment of the 2014 NFL
season discussing the NFL SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] and additional
metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team. Let’s jump right into the #’s!
SBPI (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense,
calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both
sides of the ball:
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
9
|
DEN
|
52.0
|
2
|
45.3
|
2
|
97.3
|
1
|
10
|
4
|
||||
|
8
|
SEA
|
48.8
|
8
|
44.7
|
4
|
93.5
|
2
|
20
|
9
|
||||
|
7
|
MIA
|
46.4
|
10
|
43.7
|
6
|
90.1
|
3
|
18
|
3
|
||||
|
8
|
IND
|
51.2
|
4
|
38.7
|
9
|
89.9
|
4
|
16
|
(2)
|
||||
|
7
|
BAL
|
50.8
|
6
|
37.4
|
11
|
88.3
|
5
|
23
|
3
|
||||
|
5
|
NO
|
55.7
|
1
|
32.5
|
29
|
88.2
|
6
|
15
|
(6)
|
||||
|
9
|
PHI
|
46.3
|
11
|
40.9
|
8
|
87.1
|
7
|
28
|
(6)
|
||||
|
9
|
GB
|
51.8
|
3
|
34.5
|
23
|
86.4
|
8
|
13
|
15
|
||||
|
9
|
NE
|
48.6
|
9
|
36.8
|
15
|
85.4
|
9
|
9
|
11
|
||||
|
8
|
DAL
|
51.2
|
5
|
33.8
|
26
|
84.9
|
10
|
27
|
(3)
|
||||
|
7
|
SF
|
40.2
|
20
|
44.5
|
5
|
84.6
|
11
|
7
|
5
|
||||
|
7
|
PIT
|
49.3
|
7
|
35.3
|
19
|
84.5
|
12
|
30
|
(4)
|
||||
|
8
|
DET
|
36.9
|
25
|
45.4
|
1
|
82.3
|
13
|
21
|
4
|
||||
|
8
|
CIN
|
45.1
|
12
|
37.1
|
13
|
82.3
|
13
|
25
|
(1)
|
||||
|
7
|
BUF
|
35.8
|
27
|
45.0
|
3
|
80.9
|
15
|
19
|
9
|
||||
|
9
|
ARI
|
37.9
|
23
|
42.0
|
7
|
79.9
|
16
|
12
|
8
|
||||
|
7
|
KC
|
42.3
|
17
|
37.2
|
12
|
79.5
|
17
|
6
|
(3)
|
||||
|
3
|
WAS
|
42.5
|
16
|
36.6
|
16
|
79.0
|
18
|
24
|
(7)
|
||||
|
8
|
SD
|
43.8
|
15
|
35.0
|
20
|
78.8
|
19
|
22
|
(1)
|
||||
|
6
|
HOU
|
44.4
|
14
|
34.3
|
24
|
78.7
|
20
|
26
|
11
|
||||
|
5
|
CHI
|
41.0
|
19
|
36.5
|
17
|
77.4
|
21
|
14
|
(4)
|
||||
|
7
|
CLE
|
40.2
|
20
|
37.0
|
14
|
77.2
|
22
|
32
|
6
|
||||
|
5
|
ATL
|
44.4
|
13
|
32.0
|
31
|
76.4
|
23
|
31
|
5
|
||||
|
3
|
NYG
|
41.4
|
18
|
34.8
|
22
|
76.2
|
24
|
2
|
(7)
|
||||
|
2
|
NYJ
|
36.3
|
26
|
38.0
|
10
|
74.3
|
25
|
1
|
(12)
|
||||
|
5
|
STL
|
37.7
|
24
|
36.0
|
18
|
73.6
|
26
|
11
|
2
|
||||
|
3
|
CAR
|
39.4
|
22
|
33.9
|
25
|
73.3
|
27
|
4
|
(3)
|
||||
|
5
|
MIN
|
34.2
|
29
|
34.9
|
21
|
69.1
|
28
|
17
|
1
|
||||
|
2
|
TEN
|
34.3
|
28
|
32.3
|
30
|
66.6
|
29
|
8
|
(6)
|
||||
|
2
|
TB
|
33.8
|
30
|
32.6
|
28
|
66.4
|
30
|
29
|
(6)
|
||||
|
2
|
JAC
|
31.4
|
31
|
32.8
|
27
|
64.1
|
31
|
3
|
(7)
|
||||
|
1
|
OAK
|
27.7
|
32
|
31.9
|
32
|
59.6
|
32
|
5
|
(18)
|
||||
- The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are back in the #1 & #2 spots respectively, just like the end of the 2013 regular season. Last year they finished up with ratings of 95.9 for the Broncos & 95.1 for the Seahawks. However, when bringing SOS into the discussion, the 2013 Broncos faced the #30 SOS compared to #10 in 2014 – showing just how strong this team is playing as not only do they have a higher overall grade but they have faced a significantly tougher schedule. Seattle also has faced a tougher schedule this season checking in at #20 vs. #28 last year; add in the fact they are getting every team’s best shot as the defending Super Bowl champs and Seattle is still a real factor in the NFC & Super Bowl 49.
- Four of the top five teams are from the AFC
- Of the top 12 teams overall eleven have a Top 12 offense; lone outlier is SF whose offense checks in at #20
Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each
team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s
four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is
the best / #32 the worst):
|
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
|
AN
|
52
|
1
|
|
AE
|
52
|
1
|
|
NW
|
55
|
3
|
|
NE
|
59
|
4
|
|
AW
|
69
|
5
|
|
NN
|
70
|
6
|
|
AS
|
84
|
7
|
|
NS
|
86
|
8
|
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk13. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
11.52
|
4.49
|
PHI
|
11.11
|
4.89
|
|
|
MIA
|
9.28
|
6.72
|
DAL
|
9.89
|
6.12
|
|
|
BUF
|
8.52
|
7.48
|
WAS
|
5.08
|
10.92
|
|
|
NYJ
|
3.65
|
12.36
|
NYG
|
5.00
|
11.00
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
10.34
|
5.66
|
GB
|
11.56
|
4.45
|
|
|
BAL
|
9.42
|
6.58
|
DET
|
10.09
|
5.91
|
|
|
PIT
|
9.01
|
6.99
|
CHI
|
6.99
|
9.01
|
|
|
CLE
|
8.81
|
7.19
|
MIN
|
6.70
|
9.30
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
10.29
|
5.71
|
NO
|
7.34
|
8.66
|
|
|
HOU
|
8.06
|
7.94
|
ATL
|
6.63
|
9.37
|
|
|
TEN
|
3.85
|
12.15
|
CAR
|
5.46
|
10.54
|
|
|
JAC
|
3.53
|
12.47
|
TB
|
3.57
|
12.43
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
12.12
|
3.88
|
ARI
|
10.80
|
5.20
|
|
|
SD
|
9.54
|
6.46
|
SEA
|
10.66
|
5.34
|
|
|
KC
|
9.33
|
6.67
|
SF
|
9.08
|
6.92
|
|
|
OAK
|
2.18
|
13.82
|
STL
|
6.61
|
9.39
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 BAL @ #3 CIN
|
#6 DET @ #3 ARI
|
|||||
|
#5 SD @ #4 IND
|
#5 SEA @ #4 NO
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 GB
|
|||||
|
#2 NE
|
#2 PHI
|
|||||
Above are also the current playoff projections where I use
my power ratings to play out the entire season.
Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my
performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home
field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance
at winning each game. I simply add up
the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played,
and it all comes to my projected standings listed above. One aspect of this analysis to note is the
teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to where team’s actual records
will finish (especially early in the season) – meaning, using this analysis to
project order of finish, playoff berths and seeds is very accurate, but using
it to project actual wins and losses will not be as accurate since teams on the
outer edges of wins (very high or very low) will typically win more/less than
projected.
Currently the AFC realistically has 8 teams fighting for 6
spots. Pittsburgh, Cleveland &
Buffalo are all still alive but would really need to close strongly to catch
& pass the teams ahead of them. The
NFC has 7 teams alive as SF has fallen far back from the pack but
still could make a run closing strongly, though unlikely. Amazingly the Dallas Cowboys right now are on
the outside looking in, and that very well could be the case come early
January.
In the race for the first pick in the 2015 NFL Draft here
are the Top 5 with current win projection:
- Oakland 2.18
- Jacksonville 3.53
- Tampa Bay 3.57
- NY Jets 3.65
- Tennessee 3.85
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process:
|
Overall
|
|
|
DEN
|
1
|
|
SEA
|
2
|
|
NE
|
3
|
|
GB
|
4
|
|
IND
|
5
|
|
BAL
|
6
|
|
MIA
|
7
|
|
PHI
|
8
|
|
NO
|
9
|
|
CIN
|
10
|
|
DAL
|
10
|
|
SF
|
12
|
|
KC
|
12
|
|
PIT
|
14
|
|
BUF
|
15
|
|
ARI
|
16
|
|
HOU
|
16
|
|
DET
|
18
|
|
SD
|
19
|
|
CLE
|
20
|
|
WAS
|
21
|
|
ATL
|
22
|
|
NYG
|
23
|
|
CAR
|
24
|
|
CHI
|
25
|
|
NYJ
|
26
|
|
STL
|
27
|
|
MIN
|
27
|
|
TB
|
29
|
|
TEN
|
30
|
|
JAC
|
31
|
|
OAK
|
32
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
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