Wednesday, December 3, 2014

NBA 2014-2015: Performance Ratings & Power Ratings thru Tuesday 12/02/14



Now that we are about 20 games into the season for each team let’s take another glance at the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index].  As a reminder this model uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas.  New this season I have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores (if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower grades were better).  Here is where each team stands through last night’s action:

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL

SOS ADJ

SU
Team
RANK

RANK

RANK

RATING
RANK

RECORD
Memphis
6

2

1

170.1
1

15-2
San Antonio
19

1

2

154.5
2

13-4
Cleveland
4

8

3

154.0
3

9-7
Portland
8

6

5

147.0
4

14-4
Toronto
1

21

6

145.7
5

14-4
L.A. Clippers
8

10

7

144.4
6

12-5
Dallas
2

17

4

144.0
7

14-5
Sacramento
11

19

13

143.2
8

9-9
Washington
15

5

9

138.5
9

11-5
Houston
16

4

8

135.8
10

13-4
Denver
4

24

11

133.9
11

9-9
Golden State
20

3

12

131.1
12

15-2
Chicago
10

14

10

130.8
13

11-7
Utah
11

21

14

130.4
14

5-13
New Orleans
7

28

15

126.2
15

8-8
L.A. Lakers
3

30

21

122.0
16

5-13
Phoenix
17

12

15

121.6
17

11-8
Indiana
23

6

17

120.4
18

7-11
Boston
21

16

21

117.9
19

4-11
Miami
14

24

18

117.5
20

9-8
Minnesota
13

27

20

116.2
21

4-12
Charlotte
27

8

26

112.5
22

4-14
Atlanta
17

21

19

110.3
23

10-6
Detroit
24

14

23

109.8
24

3-15
Milwaukee
25

12

24

103.0
25

10-9
Brooklyn
22

19

25

101.1
26

7-9
Oklahoma City
28

18

27

94.9
27

5-13
Orlando
29

10

28

94.1
28

7-13
New York
26

29

29

75.4
29

4-15
Philadelphia
30

26

30

74.0
30

0-17

Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or lower than expected.

Memphis: the Grizzlies are tied for the best record in the NBA with the Warriors but still hold the top spot in the NBA SBPI although he gap between them & the #2 squad has been closed a great deal due to strong play over last 10+ days by Spurs & Cavaliers.  

Utah: of the top 15 teams in the SBPI only the Jazz are below .500 checking in at 5-13 SU.  

Western Conference: of the top 17 teams in the above ratings 13 are from the West, and that does not include Oklahoma City who figure to make a big climb following the addition of Durant & Westbrook into their lineup.

Philadelphia & New York: by far these two are the worst teams in the NBA & frankly we do not see that changing for most of the season.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Team
Home PR
Away PR
Memphis
117.5
113.0
Golden State
112.2
108.2
San Antonio
115.1
111.1
Toronto
114.0
110.0
Portland
114.2
110.2
Atlanta
109.7
105.7
Dallas
113.3
109.8
Washington
112.6
109.1
New Orleans
111.1
107.6
Houston
111.8
108.8
Milwaukee
107.8
104.8
L.A. Clippers
112.8
109.8
Phoenix
110.1
107.1
Cleveland
114.0
111.0
Denver
111.1
108.6
Sacramento
112.2
109.7
Miami
108.6
106.6
Indiana
108.9
106.9
Oklahoma City
105.8
103.8
Brooklyn
106.5
104.5
Charlotte
107.9
105.9
Utah
110.1
108.1
Chicago
110.2
108.2
New York
100.4
98.4
Minnesota
108.4
106.4
Orlando
105.7
103.7
Boston
108.6
106.6
Detroit
107.6
105.6
L.A. Lakers
109.1
107.1
Philadelphia
98.2
96.2

These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups. 

Since it remains too early in the season to use performance and its impact on Pythagorean record we will skip that portion until the numbers settle in some & they can be used to better forecast.  Instead let’s take a look at where each team stands ATS wise thus far:


ATS RECORD
Team
WIN
LOSS
%
Milwaukee
13
6
68.4%
Portland
11
6
64.7%
Golden State
11
6
64.7%
Dallas
12
7
63.2%
Toronto
11
7
61.1%
Sacramento
11
7
61.1%
Indiana
10
7
58.8%
Memphis
10
7
58.8%
Phoenix
10
8
55.6%
Orlando
11
9
55.0%
L.A. Lakers
9
8
52.9%
Oklahoma City
9
8
52.9%
Houston
9
8
52.9%
Utah
9
9
50.0%
Miami
8
8
50.0%
New Orleans
8
8
50.0%
Atlanta
8
8
50.0%
San Antonio
8
9
47.1%
Philadelphia
8
9
47.1%
Denver
8
9
47.1%
Washington
7
9
43.8%
Cleveland
7
9
43.8%
Brooklyn
7
9
43.8%
L.A. Clippers
7
10
41.2%
Minnesota
6
9
40.0%
Boston
6
9
40.0%
Chicago
7
11
38.9%
Charlotte
6
10
37.5%
Detroit
5
13
27.8%
New York
5
14
26.3%

How good are bookmakers at setting odds?  Ten of the thirty teams in the NBA are currently playing to within one game of .500 in their ATS record & fifteen (half the league) is within two games of .500.

Thanks for reading.  In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football winds down we will post this article more frequently.

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014

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